I have to say ‘the powers that be’ have outdone themselves this season for the Dancing With The Stars Confessionals and the last one for Season 14 is no different. Here’s to tonight, Everyone!
Now that we know what the final three couples are going to dance for the 24-hour Challenge, let’s see how they will fare:
– Age: 27.190
– Occupation: 26.250
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 27
Predicted Rank: 3rd
Comments: Donald and Peta chose their lowest scoring dance for their 24-hour challenge, the first time they did a Cha-Cha was back in Week 1, it was a 21. With so much room for improvement I have no doubt that Donald would shine, but how much? Let’s look at how previous NFL players in their 30s have done this late in the season.
– Season 3’s Emmitt Smith received a 30 in Week 9
– Season 6’s Jason Taylor received a 24 for Week 10
– Season 11’s Kurt Warner received a 24 and Week 8
For the most part NFL players are oozing with charisma, regardless on the scores that they received. Donald could do better, scoring wise… I’m hoping he’ll get another perfect score.
Well, as it stands right now and based on scores alone, it’s anyone’s game. Such a small margin going into tomorrow night. But really, Donald’s freestyle?? Would have won the competition any other season. Any other season that didn’t have the ridiculous pimping and fawning over another contestant who is totally unworthy of the praise.
Please, Cheryl – take a break. You did William NO favors with that totally predictable freestyle. Donald wasn’t the only one who totally called it. My twitter feed predicted the whole dance before it aired…to the point that I died laughing at the shirt ripping and the faux standing intercourse on the floor. Lord, Len picks a great time to agree with me. I would have given it an 8, though. He was too generous. If William wins this he will be the most undeserving winner in history.
Katherine did a great job on both dances, with the exception of some awkwardness on the lifts during the freestyle and a tiny bit of softness in the legs during the Paso. I don’t think either dance was worth a 30, but, like Courtney said, the judges really hosed her on the dance selection. They gave all their favors to William…how many cha cha’s has he learned now?? Three or four? And even then, Cheryl’s choreo didn’t stand up to Peta’s and Mark’s. Me thinks someone is relying on the sex factor and over scoring to carry her through. Interestingly, I saw Katherine on E! News and they asked her about taking clothes off and she said, “We’re not about taking off clothes. It’s about the dancing for us.” Now, those of you who have been reading this blog for a long time know that I would normally skewer someone for that sort of commentary for its subtle diss of another contestant. Not this season. Not when even Len is calling a freestyle “predictable”. The truth hurts, kids, and Katherine and Donald ARE about the dancing. William and Cheryl?? Not so much. They’ve gone to the same well too many times, and if there is any justice they won’t go home with the trophy.
The Judges Scores and Percentages
So, as you can see, there is only a tiny margin going into Tuesday’s final dance. Of course, this dance is also scored and has the ability to change the game entirely. My question is – just how invested are the judges in William?? Do they want him to win badly enough to seriously skew it AFTER everyone has voted?? On CAI and Bruno’s part, I would say yes. So I’m putting all my faith in Len.
In order for either William or Donald to overtake Katherine and win, at this point, either or both of them need to get 5,620 more votes per million votes cast. That’s a very small number. Discounting the final dance for a minute, if both men beat that spread, then Katherine comes in third. Then it becomes a race between the two men and whoever gets the most votes win. Period.
Except not period. The judges have one more shot at screwing it up. So, let’s play a game of “what if?” There are a couple different ways it could go tomorrow. Option 1 – the judges cop out and give everyone a 30. If they do that, then the margin between Katherine and the two men decreases to 3,735 votes per million votes cast. A virtual tie.
Option 2 is one of the two men chokes and gets…let’s say a 28. Since I think that man is more likely to be Donald (based on history), that’s what we’ll go with. If it happens to William, just substitute his name here. So, if Donald gets a 28 and William and Katherine get 30s?? For Donald to WIN, he would need both of the following:
– Donald would need 7,520 more votes per million votes cast than William, AND;
– Donald would need 11,280 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine.
After his freestyle, I think Donald can do it. I just hope he doesn’t have to. If the positions are reversed, I think William can likely do it as well.
Option 3 is the one where the judges just totally level the playing field. That is, the two men both get 30 and Katherine gets a 29. Of course, if that happens it’s a tie ball game and the high vote getter wins. It certainly should be Donald in first place, Katherine in second place with William taking third. Whether that happens or not I have no good idea.
Of course, there is one last, thoroughly repulsive option. That is the option where Donald and Katherine are both given something less than 30 while William gets a 30. If that number is a 29, then Katherine and Willy are tied and Donald needs 3,760 to catch them. Of course, that is chump change and Donald should be able to do it based on his freestyle. But if they get 28s?? If that happens, then in judges scores William is in first place, Katherine in second and Donald in third. For Donald to win, he would need both of the following:
– Donald needs 3,790 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, AND;
– Donald needs 7,580 more votes per million votes cast than William.
Should be easy enough. For Katherine to win in that scenario she needs BOTH of the following:
– Katherine needs Donald to not cover the spread, AND;
– Katherine needs 3,790 more votes per million votes cast than William.
I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see either of those things happening. In that scenario, for William to win he simply needs for neither Donald nor Katherine to cover the spread.
So, after looking at all the various scenarios, nothing has changed my mind. I think it comes down to William and Donald. Which of the two men wins depends heavily on the final dance. Unless Donald really blows it and gets underscored relative to William (again) I think Donald wins.
I’m going to say:
Donald – Winner
William – Second Place
Katherine – Third Place.
I would love it if Willy got knocked to third place. I also wouldn’t mind at all if Katherine were to win – but I don’t think so.
So, how does Louis Van Amstel feel on the dances on Dancing With The Stars last night and who will win? Below is his take from ABC on the freestyle dances and his overall opinion for who will win.
William Levy and Cheryl Burke’s Freestyle. It was a good dance, but for a Freestyle it was a little too normal. I think we all expect something different from any other dance we have seen. What I like seeing is that William is just having a good time. Will it be enough to win? It depends on whether Katherine or Donald will dance as if their life depended on it. In a way I have to agree a little bit with Len, it was a bit predictable. I would have given this three “9s.”
Katherine Jenkins and Mark Ballas’s Freestyle. Now, that’s a Freestyle! It was very entertaining and well thought out, taking us back to the forties. From the music and costumes to the choreography, this Freestyle had the ingredients to be successful. From an energy perspective, I believe that this was Katherine’s most open and exuberant performance so far. Very well done. I totally agree with Bruno, Carrie Ann and Len. This is the first performance I agree with the scoring. This was worthy of three “10s.”
Donald Driver and Peta Murgatroyd’s Freestyle. Wow, Donald! What can I say?! Every time I see Donald on the dance floor I feel like I’m watching a kid in a candy store and that’s the quality we all fell in love with. He’s so committed and willing to try anything. In this Freestyle, Donald danced as if his life depended on it. This was the energy I was missing in Round One from all celebs. Like with Katherine, this was a true Freestyle with all the right ingredients. It was very original. Again, I totally agreed with the judges.
Overall. Who Will Win?
After a great first round and an amazing Freestyle round, I would rank Donald and Katherine as a very close first and second, and then William in third place. That doesn’t mean that tomorrow night things can’t change. It’s still too close to call. No couple can rest on their laurels and take it easy tomorrow. I hope you guys voted!
I have to say I completely agree with him this time. What do you think?
Also, below is Tony Dovolani and Kym Johnson with their thoughts on the night on Good Morning America today. They can’t pick the winner because they love them all, but, they think Katherine has the edge.;
Stay tuned. Miss Heidi’s Number Prediction post is coming up and it’s always fun! xx
Wow, what a night that ended with a bang! Let’s go straight to the On The Red Carpet interviews with George Pennacchio to get the couples reactions! Picture courtesy of ABC.
William explained the victory symbol after he and Cheryl’s freestyle. They explain the 24 Hour Dance Challenge as well. They picked the Salsa. William is happy whether he wins or not tonight. Cheryl lists her celebrity picks for the all star season.
Mark and Katherine will be dancing the Jive tonight for their instant dance. They are happy with their scores last night. They both feel they best they could do and that’s all that matters. It’s in the fans hands now. Mark tells his choices for next season’s all stars.
Peta and Donald picked the Cha Cha tonight for their 24 hour dance challenge. They had so much fun last night. Their freestyle was dangerous, but, she trusted Donald to pull off the tricks. They feel they did everything they could do. Peta also tells who she’d like to see come back for the All Star season.
Below are the Access Hollywood and ET Online interviews….
Last night, dance pros and stars of Dancing With The Stars currently and in the past graced the Red Carpet for the 2012 Billboard Music Awards at the MGM in Las Vegas. Below are Lacey Schwimmer, Gladys Knight, Gavin Degraw, and Julianne Hough. You can see a slew of more pictures covering the night at Zimbio Pictures. Gorgeous!
Carrie Anne Inaba was a guest on “What’s The Buzz” today. Once again, she gives William the edge. If Katherine could bring back the confidence, she could be a force. She thinks Donald needs to work on his story lines and his arms (I’m sorry, but his story lines and arms are fine to me). She also has some thoughts on the All-Star season.
It’s almost showtime!!
Thanks to XKorita05 for the video!!
Hollywood.com gets Louis Van Amstel’s thoughts and predictions for the Dancing With The Stars Season 14 Finals. He thinks they “all deserve to win”. Below is a take from the link…
If you needed any proof that this is true, Amstel encourages you to look at each of the couples’ track record. “None of the three celebrities have been in the bottom two,” he says. “That’s why it’s such a crazy final. They’ve all never been in the bottom three and they’re all lovely people.” America’s going to have their work cut out for them come tomorrow night.
Sure, this may be the most unpredictable season of all time, but that’s all the more reason these contestants need to be on the top of their game and bring everything they’ve got to the dance floor — both technically and personally. Amstel advises each couple to put their best foot forward (literally) while also showcasing their lovable characteristics. “They all need to make sure that they show their personality,” he says. “It’s not just a dance competition, and that’s weird for me to say. It is also the high energy, making sure you still enjoy it. Let people know that you enjoy it.”
Live Young, Wild & Free-style
For their final performances, the three remaining couples will be asked to tackle the ever-exciting, no holds barred Freestyle routine, which will give everyone their own unique chance to shine. “Everyone has a chance to make it or break it, so there’s a lot of extra pressure on the pros to make sure those freestyles are the highlight of the evening,” Amstel says. “Last week everybody, in my opinion, was held back. You could see that they were over-thinking. They have to show their personality, put their hearts on the line and show them what they’re made of because this is the week they can take the trophy home.”
I totally agree with the bolded text above, do you? Not only do we need to see perfection tonight, they can’t over-think it (like we’ve seen Katherine especially do).
You can read his full take at Hollywood.com.
Extra went into rehearsals to see if the couples would give them any hints about their freestyles tonight for Dancing With The Stars. William and Cheryl will wear a shirt and pants (what?). Peta says their freestyle will be out of she and Donald’s element. It will also get everyone dancing. Katherine never thought she’d be dancing in the finals. Sorry, as you can see, not many hints were given.
Also, Bruno was interviewed at the Grove by Mario Lopez. He tells Mario to expect “absolute and utter sensation” on Dancing With The Stars tonight (and here I thought I was excited! ). He explains to Mario what each couple needs to do tonight to win the Mirror Ball. See if you agree and lots more below….
Here we go, the last week of the season. Week 10. The following are the dances that the couples are slated to do over the course of Monday/Tuesday:
– Judges Choice: the judges get choose a dance that they would like to the couples to conquer again and the couples will perform it to new music and new choreography
– Freestyle: The anything goes dance… do I really need to describe this to you guys?
– 24-hour Challenge: The couples are allowed to pick a dance but are not given the music until 24-hours before Tuesday night’s show (something similar to the dance off where couples are working on routines/dances the night before Tuesday night’s show)
One thing I want to gripe about is why not have the couple do a dance that they have yet to do? For example Donald has set to do the Salsa, while William is missing a Waltz and Katherine the Tango… I think it would be fairer to give them all new dances… but that’s just me. Ah well. In any case:
DISCLAIMER: At the time of this writing, according to Wikipedia Katherine and Mark are doing the Rumba for their “judges choice” dance, so if there are any changes I may not be able to get to them prior to the show time… and I apologize.
UPDATE: I have updated the Predicted Scores with Katherine’s dance the Paso Doble
Dance 1: Cha-Cha
– Age: 27.190
– Occupation: 24.500
– Professional Partner: 27.000
Predicted Score: 26
Dance 2: Freestyle
– Age: 28.059
– Occupation: 28.000
– Professional Partner: 28.600
Predicted Score: 28
Predicted Rank: 3rd
Comments: Getting a dance that he did earlier in the season bodes well for William, since he did a Cha-Cha in Week 1 there is a very good chance that he could show off just how much he has improved since then. The other two actors in their 30s that did the Cha-Cha this late in the season:
– Season 3’s Mario Lopez got a 29
– Season 13’s David Arquette got a 24
Personally William is a stronger dancer than David, but not the same caliber as Mario… so getting a 29 would be difficult for me to fathom unless he knocks it out of the park. As for the freestyle:
– Season 3’s Mario Lopez received a 30
– Season 8’s Gilles Marini received a 28
Ironically, both ended up being runners up in their respective seasons… William could end up being a runner up in the current season, but it is hard to tell at this juncture.