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DWTS 11 Stat Class: Who has the Edge? Part 1

Yay! My turn. :D

Heidi and Courtney (Part I and Part II) turned in their feelings of how the power ranking would work for the season. While John wrote about odds/competitiveness factor as well as number of twitter followers for each celeb.

If you were following last season, I tried to predict scores for the stars before they actually started dancing. Well here I am again, using a more “advanced” statistical analysis to try to predict where each celeb will ultimately end up.

These calculations are based on three factors:
- Age Group: Taking the average of all the placements of all past celebrities and breaking them down by age group (teens, 20s, 30s, 40s, etc), it came to pass that those in their teens through 30s tend to do better than those in their 40s on up. As in on average three placements better. That being said, the celebs (on average) place lower in accordance with their age… with one notable exception: those in their 60s tend to place higher than those in their 50s.
- Occupation: Again taking the average of all the placements of all past celebrities and breaking them down by occupation. I know there are a lot of celebs that work in multiple mediums, however, I am focusing on the medium that they are best know for. David Hasselhoff is known for Baywatch thus he’s known as an actor. Brandy is best known for her music thus she’s in the singer category. And yes Reality stars have their own category and those like Bristol Palin are found in the “other” category.
- Professional Dancer: And yes, I even went so far as to calculate the average placement of all the professional partners through all the seasons. I tried to normalize the result as much as possible, but obviously as much as I try to make this a scientific calculation, it is only half the battle.

After averaging all three of the above factors out I come up with a fairly decent representation of how the celebs could be placed in competition. Granted things will change with every passing season, but we’ll see how things go.

In Part II of the DWTS Stat Class: Who has the Edge? I will present the above three factors in action and give a bit of an analysis of each factor as well as my thoughts, and then follow that with a final averaged placement.

So for your reading enjoyment… I will give you the ranking of the pros (including Alec, Edyta, and Julianne for nostalgia’s sake) in order of ranking from highest to lowest.

The professional dancers (dancers participating on Season 11 are in bold):
1.) Derek Hough – 6 Seasons
2.) Julianne Hough – 5 Seasons
3.) Cheryl Burke – 9 Seasons
4.) Lacey Schwimmer – 3 Seasons
5.) Kym Johnson – 7 Seasons
6.) Chelsie Hightower – 3 Seasons
7.) Dmitry Chaplin – 2 Seasons
8.) Karina Smirnoff – 7 Seasons
9.) Louis van Amstel – 6 Seasons
10.) Mark Ballas – 6 Seasons
11.) Tony Dovolani – 9 Seasons
12.) Corky Ballas – 1 Season
13.) Maksim Chmerkovskiy – 8 Seasons
14.) Anna Trebunskaya – 5 Seasons
15.) Edyta Sliwinska – 10 Seasons
16.) Alec Mazo – 5 Seasons
17.) Ashly Costa (nee DelGrosso) – 4 Seasons
18.) Jonathan Roberts – 7 Seasons

September 14, 2010 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Julianne Hough, Mark Ballas and Derek Hough Before Dancing with the Stars

Thanks to a reader of Pure Derek Hough, I just finished watching this video of Julianne Hough, Mark Ballas and Derek Hough on Barrymore. I don’t really know who Barrymore is, but this video of Julianne, Mark and Derek so young is awesome. It’s kind of crazy to see them so young, but even then they could move it. Enjoy!

July 12, 2010 I Written By

Better known as Charlie.

What I Did on My Christmas Vacation – The Men, Part II

Cast announcements and Season 10 Media have set me back but I intend to finish the women as well. :-)

Tony Dovolani

Status: Paired with Kate Gosselin for Season 10

Some of this information was provided by Rebecca, some of it I had to dig for. :-)

Tony has the most gorgeous family and just the other day he tweeted a photo that was so gorgeous I had to share – look at the chubby little baby legs!!

Per Tony’s Twitter, he did a lot of teaching during is break from DWTS. Reconstructing from Twitter, he was all over the place – San Francisco, Aspen, NYC, Kosovo, Albania, Chicago…

Tony judged a competition in Fort Walton Beach, Florida, in December, then followed up with dancing with Chelsie at an event, and also danced with Cheryl Burke for the Christmas Parade at Disney.

Now, as much as I like Tony, I am not an expert, so I need the help of other fans. I know that Tony had a part in a movie, but that’s the extent of my knowledge. What was it? I also know that Tony is involved in the Ballroom Dance Channel and that his partner is Elena Grinenko. Someone fill me in.

Dmitry Chaplin

Status: Not on DWTS Season 10, but choreographing for SYTYCD this summer.

Most people know that I’m not a huge Dmitry fan, but those people should also know that I would prefer he be on the show over being replaced by a new professional. Yes, I understand the nature of show business, but if we’re not loyal to our pros, who will be? I am NOT saying that Damian is responsible for Dmitry – that’s on the producers.

That said, I think Dmitry will be back next season and he will be fine in any case. He’s a very talented guy.

Dmitry is one of the dancers in the DWTS WorkOut videos – I’m sure lots of people actually work out to them and don’t just sit and watch. :-) I heard that Dmitry danced at Dizzy Feet Foundation Benefit, along with Derek, Mark and Cheryl, but I never saw any pictures of it. Dmitry also performed at the mystery event in Toronto that was also attended by Mark Ballas and Chelsie Hightower.

Dmitry also performed in the Louis Van Amstel choreographed Ballroom with a Twist in January. It appeared that he followed this with a lot of teaching – per his twitter.

Dmitry and Chelsie had a gorgeous photoshoot recently, the purpose of which I don’t know – but the pics were gorgeous. :-) This isn’t one of them, but a tweeted pic of Dmitry, Chelsie and their photographer:

Louis Van Amstel

Status: Partnered with Niecy Nash for Season 10

Everything I have about Louis I gleaned from Twitter. If anyone has additions or corrections, let me know. :-) I also found that he designed his own web site —> Louis Van Amstel

Shortly after taking Kelly Osborne to third place, Louis flew to Amsterdam for an “introduction” to his fitness class (Louis’ Dance Blast) for dance studios in Holland. He followed that very whirlwind trip to Holland with a vacation with his partner, Kelly O and her fiancé.

I get the impression from Louis’ tweets that he is continually teaching at his studio in LA – all types of Cardio fitness/dance classes. It sounds like he had Christmas in Utah and then went back to Holland again in early January. Apparently, 20 studios in Holland are now teaching his Louis’ Dance Blast. Wow.

Louis was also the Choreographer for Ballroom with a Twist that a few of the pros performed in during *their* Christmas vacation. :-)

Louis went to Cabo for vacation (for a second time?) and then on to Holland for a third time, trying to keep up with the dance classes, from the sound of it.

In early March, Louis got involved in the NOH8 Campaign regarding California’s proposition 8. If I had a copy of the photo, I would post it, but it doesn’t appear to have been released yet. For those who don’t know, these are the photos you see around of celebs with duct tape over their mouths.

And, finally, Lisa Rinna taped a segment of her new reality show, “Harry Loves Lisa” at Louis Cardio dance class the other day. :-)

Jonathan Roberts and Anna Trebunskaya

Status: Jonathan isn’t on, while Anna has the ringiest ringer of the season. :-)

Like I did with Alec and Edyta, I’m lumping Jon and Anna together since many of their off season activities coincided quite neatly. I’m also shorting Jonathan’s name to Jon because I am very lazy. :-)

In late November, Jon and Anna did the Dizzy Feet Foundation benefit along with Derek, Mark, Lacey, Cheryl and the gang. He and Anna danced the waltz, which I would have loved to see. He kindly (or not) tweeted a picture of Lacey and Anna. :-)

After Dizzy Feet, Jon and Anna went do Tuscon for a days worth of work – I assume dancing. Once they got back to LA they went on to San Diego – work again. In early December, Anna took off for Russia while Jon stayed behind and worked alot (per his tweets on the subject). Apparently, he subsists on fast food when the wife is gone. :-) One of his projects in southern California was choreographing a show for a dance studio.

As previously mentioned, he danced with Anna (along with Chelsie/Dmitry) at Ballroom with a Twist in January in Wilmington, Delaware.

It sounds like Jon taught some classes Fred Astaire Studios in Chicago and Ohio, and mentioned their studio in Hermosa Beach. I also saw a notice a while ago that Jon and Anna bought a very nice house – I saw the listing for it, which I can’t seem to produce right now. :-)

Yeah, I know I’m not writing much even though it sounds like both Jon and Anna worked their butts off – but they traveled all over teaching, often from 7 am to 11 pm. How many times can I type that? :-)

Anna was in the Sports Illustrated issue that also had Chelsie and Cheryl – that was pretty nice!!

On February 9, Jon and Anna danced at the Red Dress Awards, apparently in NYC.

Finally, Jon finds out he’s not on the show, but his wife hit the jackpot. He tweeted this picture of Anna and Evan:

Jonathan is currently in Boston, teaching!

March 20, 2010 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS 9 Week 5 – Results Show Clips

Oh, there was some good stuff in the results show last night, in addition to the MJ Tribute. I really liked the “behind the scenes of a Monday” bit – kinda cool. Sure, it was all set up, but I still enjoyed seeing it.

I’m normally a big Nora Jones fan, and I liked her performances – but I can’t say it’s the best I’ve seen her:

LOVED Jonathan and Anna T’s dance to this song. Gorgeous.

Here’s a video of all the pre-tribute discussion from the pros and the Jackson family that I don’t think I posted before:

October 22, 2009 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 9, Week 5 Media

The Local ABC Affiliate’s interviews from Monday and Tuesday night are all posted.

Mario STOLE my line. :-) All about the Aaron/Maks DRAMA.

Entertainment Tonight on the Group Dance – Mya all bruised up, Michael Irvin, Donny, Joanna and sickie Derek replaced by Maks.

Entertainment Tonight again – the stars talk about Natalie.

October 21, 2009 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

The Michael Jackson Tribute on Dancing with the Stars

Wow. I wasn’t sure how I was going to feel, but I really, really liked it. Nice mixture of true MJ (Derek, Mark, Lacey) and ballroom. This was a tribute to the man’s music as much as it was his dance. His music was beautifully represented in the dances – kudos to all the choreographers.

Another, clearly misguided, blogger at E! made the crack that the professionals weren’t cool enough or young enough to represent MJ adequately. HELLO???!!! Michael Jackson was a year older than DONNY OSMOND when he died. OLDER. Therefore, it stands to reason that the older pros have just as much a clue about MJ as the younger ones. I hate stupid cracks like that – admit your bias, people. I admit mine – and I don’t care for SYTYCD. There, I said it. Others prefer SYTYCD. They are two completely different shows and shouldn’t be compared – I think I wrote a blog about this a while ago. John, find me a link. :-)

Speaking of bias – seeing lots of comments on twitter about Derek as the blond MJ. Yes indeed, my favorite pro was front and center for a reason. :-) While I generally prefer Derek’s dancing to the other pros, I thought they all were fantastic tonight – great job!!

October 20, 2009 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

The Value of the Professional Partner on DWTS

After my previous post where Debi Mazar commented on Maks’ choreography, I couldn’t help but start to think about the importance and value of the professional partner that you get on Dancing with the Stars.

Certainly the impact of the stars professional partner goes far beyond choreography. Other benefits (or detriments) that the professional brings are: fan base, teaching ability, personality (both on their own and with their partner), etc.

Think about your favorite couple or ones that have gone far in DWTS and you’ll see that many of the above factors played into the stars success. Take Ty Murray for example. I’m quite sure Ty would have been gone much sooner had he been paired with Karina instead of Chelsie. However, Karina was a good match with Mario Lopez. In similar fashion, Maks was great with Mel B, but I think Mel B would have just been odd paired with say Mark Ballas.

This season I think Joanna is lucky to have Derek. They seem to work well together, look great together and Derek pulls a lot out of Joanna. Plus, Derek’s playfulness is a stark contrast to Joanna’s previous TO incident. Louie and Chelsie are another great match. Could you really imagine Louie dancing with any of the other pros and see it fit as well as Chelsie?

On the opposite side, Michael and Anna D. just have never felt right together. However, Michael and Cheryle Burke would have been much more interesting. Probably because it would remind me of Cheryl and Emmitt and I liked that combo. Imagine if Natalie was with Derek instead of Alec. Would be much different story I think. How lame would Tony and Kelly have been?

So, what do you think of the importance of a pro partner? Are there other factors that a pro brings to the table that I haven’t mentioned?

P.S. We could also argue how important the celebrity is to the professional. I’ll leave that post to Heidi since she’s a pro at that.

October 12, 2009 I Written By

Better known as Charlie.

DWTS Season 9 – Tribute to Patrick Swayze

I rather suspected they might do this tribute and I hoped for it! Now it appears to be reality. According to People:

Swayze, who died of pancreatic cancer on Monday at the age of 57, made a guest appearance on Dancing’s inaugural U.S. season in 2005, teaching friend and fellow actor John O’Hurley a few dance moves in rehearsal. He also came to the show and supported O’Hurley by attending the season 1 finale.

“He was one of the few people to integrate dance with being an A-list actor,” Green says. “He inspired many people and many of our pros to dance. We want to honor the great moments he’s brought to film by getting our dancers to do their interpretation to some music from his films.”

patrick-swayze-2

It also crossed my mind, when seeing all the male Pros coming out of rehearsal together, that perhaps they were also doing a Michael Jackson Tribute. I would LOVE to see both tributes. Who will play Johnny Castle? You KNOW my pic, what’s yours? :-)

September 16, 2009 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Professional Dancer Competition

I really like the addition of the Professional dancer competition. It makes it fun for us to get to know the possible professional dancers and the dances they do are really quite wonderful. The following are the professionals that are competing to be the next professional dancer on Dancing with the Stars Season 9:
Mayo Alanen
Brent Borbon
Afton DelGrosso
Anna Demidova
Genya Mazo
Snow Urbin

Brent & Afton danced a Cha-Cha-Cha to the song “Damaged”—Danity Kane Danity Kane - Welcome to the Dollhouse - Damaged

Mayo & Anna danced a Waltz to the song

Genya & Snow danced a Rumba to the song “Stop and Stare”—OneRepublic OneRepublic - Dreaming Out Loud - Stop and Stare

April 21, 2009 I Written By

Better known as Charlie.