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Dancing with the Stars: The Jeopardy Theory

Every season, readers get very confused by the concepts of “bottom two” versus “jeopardy”. If you don’t listen carefully to what Tom and Brooke (now Erin) say, it’s easy to get confused. If a couple is in the bottom two, it means that they, along with the eliminated couple, had the lowest combined score. The combined score is determined by viewer votes and judges scores. The formula is relatively simple: they take a couple’s score and divide it by the total points handed out on a given night to get their share of the judges scores. They do the same with the viewer votes; they divide a couple’s number of votes by the total number of votes cast and come up with their share of the votes. They then add the two numbers together; the couple with the lowest combined total is then sent home.  You can see many examples of this in my series of posts called “Dancing by the Numbers”.

When the show is airing, there are two ways of getting to an elimination, by putting three couples in jeopardy (oh, the drama) and then saving one, and then one of the remaining two goes home. And then there is the straight up identification of the “bottom two” couples. Tom will say “the bottom two” if this is the case. If neither Tom nor Brooke (now Erin) says “these are the bottom two” then we don’t actually know if the two people standing at the end are really the low combined score getters. There are multiple reasons why they like do this. The main reason, of course, is DRAMA. How they love their drama. They like to make the show exciting and if the low scorer was immediately sent home every week, what fun would that be? This past week, you’ll note that Tom and Erin made it clear that Cody and Witney were “not necessarily” the bottom two.

The question that is asked every season is: does “jeopardy” (aka, being the last couple called safe) have any real meaning for the couples put there??  The answer is yes, of course. The problem is determining what that meaning is at the time. That is very difficult to do, although we’ve gotten pretty good at figuring it out every season.  You always have to remember a few key things:

  • The producers want to keep the show exciting, and jeopardy is a part of that;
  • The producers often have a reason why they want to keep a particular couple around longer and motivating fan bases to vote harder can be accomplished by “jeopardy” if they think the votes are too low;
  • Drama, drama, drama!! How exciting is it when the high scorer of the night is standing next to the low scorer of the night and you don’t know who’s going to survive – and the producers fool you into thinking that the low person is for sure going home…and then they don’t?

Yeah, I don’t think it’s really that exciting at this point in the show’s history, but I’ve long said that the producers have lost touch with their audience. :-)

Now, since I’m the biggest nerd of a blogger on this site, I wondered if there was any kind of pattern to the “jeopardy” and the subsequent eliminations. So I made tables of seasons 11 through 17 to try and figure it out. Hindsight is 20/20 – but it can inform how you watch the show going forward.  The answer, as you may have guessed, is that yes there is something of a pattern. Sometimes. And it’s an easy one to see when you’re looking back – but still impossible to be sure of when you’re watching the show in real time. :-) That is unlikely to change. Read more..

March 26, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing With The Stars All Stars: Las Vegas Odds Going Into Week 3

Once again, the odds makers in Las Vegas are placing their bets for who will win the Dancing With The Stars All Stars Season. Going into Week 3, Sports Bovada is reporting an even tight race for 1st place between Emmitt and Apolo. Note how Shawn has made a move up the board to fighting Gilles for the 3rd position. Also, take note for how the odds makers had it completely wrong on Joey last week….

New Las Vegas Odds going into Week 3:

Emmitt Smith 2/1
Apolo Anton Ono 3/1
Gilles Marini 5/1
Shawn Johnson 5/1
Helio Castroneves 9/1
Sabrina Bryan 10/1
Kelly Monaco 22/1
Kirstie Alley 22/1
Melissa Rycroft 25/1
Drew Lachey 30/1
Bristol Palin 75/1

Read more..

October 5, 2012 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

Dancing With The Stars Season 15: Las Vegas Odds Going Into Week 2

The odds makers are placing their bets again for who will win the Dancing With The Stars All Stars at Sports Bovada. As you can see, they’ve got Emmitt and Apolo neck in neck in first and second place. They’ve put Melissa and Bristol tied for last…

Emmitt Smith 3/2
Apolo Anton Ono 7/2
Gilles Marini 11/2
Helio Castroneves 11/2
Shawn Johnson 8/1
Joey Fatone 15/1
Kelly Monaco 20/1
Kirstie Alley 20/1
Sabrina Bryan 25/1
Drew Lachey 30/1
Bristol Palin 50/1
Melissa Rycroft 50/1

So, do the odds makers have it right or wrong?

In my opinion, they probably have it right on the top two currently, but, they are under estimating Shawn Johnson. She should be higher, while Helio should be lower. I also think they are totally wrong for putting Melissa Rycroft in last place. I think she should be placed in the middle somewhere. I also think Kelly is going to make a strong showing and should be placed higher. Let’s get Miss Heidi’s and Court’s thoughts and be sure to tell us what you think in the comment section too.

Heidi: Totally don’t buy Emmitt in the winning position. I don’t think he’s got that kind of juice. I still think this is going to come down to Apolo, Gilles and Shawn, with Apolo winning. That said…Gilles could find himself replaced with Emmitt if he doesn’t lighten up. While he is beautiful to look at, I’m not finding him charming or fun this season AT ALL.  And as William Levy can tell you, good looks are only good for third place in a regular season. In this one?? Maybe not so much. Lucky for him he’s likely going to get some “help” since he’s a card carrying member of the ABC family. Literally. :-)  The bottom?? I’m thinking it should be Bristol and Drew, but the reality probably IS Drew and Melissa.  If they keep doing a real bottom two, we’ll soon find out. :-)

Courtney: I’m not convinced at this point that Emmitt is gonna walk away with that trophy – and definitely not with odds that good. I don’t think one good dance in week one is indicative of much right now, considering that most of the couples did pretty well – aside from Pam, no one really did terribly this week.  I’m waiting for a dance like to jive to come along so we can really see what Emmitt’s made of – we know he’s got a great personality, now the question is: can he hang with the youngin’s? Because he is one of the older contestants this season, and like Kirstie, I think he may struggle with endurance.  Still puzzled as to why they have Helio so high.  I would put Apolo & Gilles at about even odds right now, but if Gilles’ whining about injuries, phone numbers, etc. continues, I would expect Apolo to begin to edge him out.  And really & truly, at this point I’d put Drew at the bottom – because he clearly is lacking in the votes department, and I’m not so sure that’s going to improve in the coming week.

September 28, 2012 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

Dancing with the Stars Make-up Crew Wins 2012 Emmy Award (Photo)

Give it up for the make-up crew for Dancing With The Stars! Saturday at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards, they won for “OUTSTANDING MAKE UP FOR A MULTI CAMERA SERIES”. You can see more pics of the make-up crew winning their Emmy at Dancing With The Stars Make-up at their facebook page.

Buddy TV and Awards Circuit have complete lists of the winners at the 2012 Creative Arts Emmys. The remaining Emmys will be awarded at the Primetime Emmy Awards September 23rd at 7:00pm ET on ABC. You can review everyone who was nominated from Dancing With The Stars for this years Emmy Awards in a previous post here.

September 16, 2012 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

J.R. Martinez Picks His Winners For The All Star Season of Dancing With The Stars (Video)

On Entertianment Tonight, Season 13 champ J.R. Martinez makes some predictions for the Dancing With The Stars All Stars season. He says Derek Hough and Shawn Johnson are going to be “sick”. He also thinks Apolo Ono is going to be good and same with Gilles Marini. He likes Sabrina Bryan, but, he’s going with Helio Castroneves or Shawn Johnson to win it. Apolo and Karina will be third cut. Below is more. See if you don’t agree with him? It’s great to see him again too. Stay tuned J.R. fans! He’ll be running in the New York City Marathon on November 4

September 13, 2012 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

ABC Releases New Promos For More Of DWTS All Star Couples (Videos)

Sweet! I’m loving the new promos ABC has released for the Dancing With The Stars All Star season far. And now they’ve released new promos for Tony & Melissa, Val and Kelly, Bristol and Mark, Cheryl and Emmitt, Drew and Anna, Apolo and Karina, and Chelsie and Helio. You can view what they’ve released at Dancing With The Stars Facebook here. They may add more, so keep checking back. ;)

I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

More Photos Of Stars Arriving For Dancing With The Stars 15 Rehearsals And Taking Breaks

The Daily Mail has a feature up on some of the stars of Dancing With The Stars arriving to rehearsals and taking a break. Here are just a few pictures today of Kelly Monaco and Kym Johnson (gorgeous as always) in Los Angeles and Cheryl Burke in Dallas (I don’t know why, and not that I have issues with it, but, I’m shocked to see her smoking). You can see more pics at the link. I Need My fix has some as well of some of the other celebs. Be sure to see lots of fun takes of Derek and Shawn at Pure Derek Hough as well as Miss Heidi delivers. :D

September 12, 2012 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

Times, New App, And New Voting Information For Dancing With The Stars All Star Season

ABCMedia Net has posted an official release that mentions the date and time of the show. They’ve also released some new information on “voting”. Note how fans will be able to vote at the official Dancing With The Stars Facebook account with a custom Facebook app. With the custom app, fans will be able to watch the Dancing With The Stars After Party and more as well. Details below and at the link. Thanks to Heidi and Pure Derek Hough for the heads up.

Also new this year, in addition to voting online at ABC.com, fans can now vote on Facebook www.facebook.com/dancingwiththestars. A custom Facebook app sponsored by AT&T will let fans vote, share whom they voted for and why, as well as see whom friends voted for. They can also access the “After Party: Dancing with the Stars” live stream, the “DWTS” Social Buzz page and the AT&T Spotlight Performance and Casting Call from the app.

Hosted by Tom Bergeron (“America’s Funniest Home Videos”) and Brooke Burke-Charvet (“Dancing with the Stars” Season Seven Champion), “Dancing with the Stars: All-Stars” premieres MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 24 (8:00-10:01 p.m., ET) followed by the premiere of “Dancing with the Stars the Results Show” on TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 25 (8:00-10:00 p.m., ET) on the ABC Television Network. Ballroom judge Len Goodman and dancer/choreographers Bruno Tonioli and Carrie Ann Inaba all return with the following celebrity contestants: Kirstie Alley, Pamela Anderson, Sabrina Bryan, Helio Castroneves, Joey Fatone, Shawn Johnson, Drew Lachey, Gilles Marini, Kelly Monaco, Apolo Anton Ohno, Bristol Palin, Melissa Rycroft and Emmitt Smith.

13 more days, Everyone!

September 11, 2012 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

Dancing With The Stars Producer Conrad Green Says The Dance Duel Is Gone And More

Entertainment Weekly has a great Fall TV Preview for some returning reality shows. It gives some little hints for what to expect including Dancing With The Stars. Guess what? There will be “NO DANCE DUELS” for the new Dancing With The Stars All Star season. Producer Conrad Green says they are going to make the whole season about celebrating the past. They plan to make the game harder and more bold with celebrities at times. Hmmm? Below is more…

What To Expect This Season: The Dance Duel is gone, but 13 familiar faces return for the first-ever All-Star season. We’ve got winners and runners-up, original partners and some all-new pairs — and even more former contestants will perform on the Tuesday results shows.

Green says: ”We’ll probably try to change up the competition slightly to reflect the fact that all of our stars have done this before — so we’ll try and make the game a little bit harder, or get a little more bold with the celebrities at times. We’re going to try to make the whole season a celebration of the past.” —Annie Barrett

You can read more of Entertainment Weekly’s Fall TV Preview here. Thanks to Evaine for the heads up on this news!!! I have one thing to say…. THANK GOODNESS FOR NO MORE DANCE DUELS! Let’s get Miss Heidi’s thoughts….

Heidi: Thank you baby Jesus! So, did he figure out on his own that the dance duels were a horrendous idea or did he actually hear lots of bitching from the judges and fans? Or all of the above? The judges never really seemed pleased with the idea and really, did it ever work as they intended it to work?? This season would only be worse, since some of the better dancers (Sabrina, Kelly) could have smaller fanbases than some of the lesser dancers (Bristol, Pam). Can you see Sabrina and Kelly in a dance off?? Sabrina might be better, but I would bet she has less draw than Kelly.  Or even worse, what if some crazy set of circumstances pitted Drew against Joey??  Shawn against Drew??  It had the potential of being a train wreck, not to mention that I don’t know anyone who actually thought they were a good idea. Let the dances and the votes stand on their own.

But what the hell does he mean when he said “a little more bold” with the celebrities??  Even MORE manipulative packages?? Scanty clothing?? What does that mean??  As for making the game a little bit harder – well sure, as long as it’s logically harder. Like the judging being tougher, holding them to the standards of the dance more, or even eliminating the stupid “no lift” rule.  But really, when Conrad starts talking like this, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a bit nervous.  His track record ain’t that great. :-)

September 9, 2012 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

More DWTS Season 15 Rehearsal Arriving Coverage And Photos In Rehearsals

PopTVDotCom covers some of our couples arriving to rehearsals. I don’t know where Henry is, but, this Steve is a hoot.

Also, don’t miss seeing a great photo album of the couples arriving at rehearsals at Pure Derek Hough (our Miss Heidi provides all things HEATASTIC on Derek!), Zimbio Pictures, and I Need My Fix (thanks to @Elara38 for this link). Below is Kelly Monaco! I love her Aviators!

Also, below is Cheryl and Emmitt in Dallas in rehearsals thanks to Emmitt’s facebook.

Bristol posted this first rehearsal pic at her blog in case you didn’t get to see it.

And that is all for now. 15 more days until the real deal!

I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.