Okay, I got a pretty good response from my math lesson post from earlier this week, so I’ll break it down again.
Unfortunately, as with the last several finales, there is a dance on Tuesday that only the judges score – which has the potential to decide the winner if the votes are close. Which annoys me tremendously. But you all knew that. :-) Anyway, the judges sort of broke with tradition tonight and did not leave an even playing field. I am of two minds about this. Part of me agrees with Maks – let the VOTERS decide at this point in the season. But the other part of me realizes that Kelly had a couple mistakes that the judges couldn’t overlook (then again, she’s the only non-pro in the group). The judges started off badly by underscoring her Argentine Tango, so when her dances didn’t do better relative to the other two as she went along, she went into a hole. Mathematically, this makes it very hard for her.
The total points out of a possible 90 for the night:
Kelly = 76
Mya = 87
Donny = 85
The total of those three scores is 285. Based on those total points awarded, the following is each celebs share of the judges scores:
Kelly = 30.65
Mya = 35.08
Donny = 34.27
As you can see, there is almost no space between Donny and Mya; less than a point. Kelly is farther out with well more than four points between her and Mya and almost four between her and Donny. Now, that might not seem like much, but at the end of the day I don’t see her beating BOTH Donny and Mya. She was certainly charming enough, IMO, to get LOTS of votes, but I don’t see her getting higher than 3rd place. There are too many people who don’t vote until the last night of the season and odds are those votes will go to Mya and Donny.
Now, based on the Freestyle – well, this show is much poorer without a Hough or Ballas in the finale. Absent the sibs, Kym did an amazing job and they won the night, and possibly the show, with that Freestyle. Kym is only hampered by the fact of Donny’s age and his extreme schedule – no disrespect to Donny intended. He is doing an amazing job for being quite a bit older than Mya and Kelly both – and sorry, but Kym and Donny kicked Mya and Dmitry’s ass in the freestyle round. And, because he kicked their butts despite his age – well, he should take the trophy. And this is coming from a woman who despised the thought of another Osmond on the show – so it’s high praise indeed. I will add, that if not for her fall, Kelly would have easily taken second place – Mya and Dmitry simply did not do the work to win that round. Kelly had more risks and more excitement than Mya did. Yeah she fell – but she did a move that you could fall out of. Mya played it safe. And that pisses me off – what, you expect them to hand it to you?
Okay, enough with the editorializing. Donny, Mya and Kelly fans see what they have to do. It appears to be a shoot out between Mya and Donny. Now, lets speculate. Let’s say that the judges revert to type for the final dances tomorrow. Which I guess means:
Kelly = 27
Mya = 30
Donny = 28
Or something like that. I THINK that means the judges score gets added to the previous judges scores which then counts for 50% of the vote, which means:
Kelly = 103
Mya = 117
Donny = 114
For a total points awarded count of 333. Divide the individual score by the total points awarded to get the percentage for each celebrity:
Kelly = 30.93
Mya = 35.14
Donny = 33.93
As you see, that widens the gap between all the celebrities by a good bit. I suggest that Donny and Kelly fans seriously vote like crazy. Donny has the best shot of beating Mya. With Mya’s as the score to beat, Donny and Kelly need 1.21 and 4.21 percent MORE votes than Mya to beat her. As I said before, it’s anybody’s game. So – what will happen? I’ll go out on a limb and give it to Donny Osmond. :-) But – don’t count Mya out. Fans who assume that one or the other wins could end up losing.