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DWTS 11 Stat Class: Week 1

Here it is folks! The first performance of the season. If rumors are correct then the first two dances that the celebs are going to try to tackle are: Viennese Waltz and ChaCha. Many thanks to Heidi for posting who is dancing what and their songs… even if she cheated a little ;-)

For those that either need a refresher or new to this, this is how I predict scores. I look at the pro and post up all scores related to that pro in that dance style. Sometimes, there simply isn’t enough information, so I would also compare scores with those of others in similar occupations, age groups, etc… Then with a little bit of averaging things up and putting my own feelings into the matter… I attempt to predict scores for each of the couples… No easy task. ;-)

Granted, who knows what’s going to happen, and this is really all just for fun :D Keeping all that in mind, let’s try to predict the scores…

VIENNESE WALTZ:
Michael Bolton & Chelsie Hightower
- Chelsie & Ty Murray (Season 8/Week 10): 25/30
- Chelsie & Jake Pavelka (Season 10/Week 1): 20/30
To me this is simply not enough information… so I’m going to try to compare with other male singers.
- Karina & Mario (Season 6/Week 8): 27/30
- Julianne & Chuck Wicks (Season 8/Week 5): 23/30
Predicted score: 20/30

Margaret Cho & Louis van Amstel
- Louis & Priscilla Presley (Season 6/Week 4): 22/30
- Louis & Kelly Osbourne (Season 9/Week 1): 23/30
- Louis & Niecy Nash (Season 10/Week 8): 23/30
Predicted score: 24/30

Rick Fox & Cheryl Burke
- Cheryl & Cristian de la Fuente (Season 6/Week 7): 25/30
- Cheryl & Maurice Greene (Season 7/Week 6): 21/30
- Cheryl & Gilles Marini (Season 8/Week 7): 27/30
- Cheryl & Chad Ochocinco (Season 10/Week 7): 25/30
Predicted score: 23/30

Jennifer Grey & Derek Hough
- Derek & Jennie Garth (Season 5/Week 7): 25/30
- Derek & Shannon Elizabeth (Season 6/Week 4): 28/30
- Derek & Brooke Burke (Season 7/Week 3): 28/30
- Derek & Lil Kim (Season 8/Week 5): 26/30
- Derek & Joanna Krupa (Season 9/Week 9): 27/30
- Derek & Nicole Scherzinger (Season 10/Week 1): 25/30
Predicted score: 26/30

Brandy & Maksim Chmerkovskiy
- Maksim & Mel B (Season 5/Week 4): 26/30
- Maksim & Erin Andrews (Season 10/Week 9): 27/30
To me this is simply not enough information… so I’m going to try to compare with other female singers.
- Alec & Toni Braxton (Season 7/Week 3): 22/30
- Derek & Lil Kim (Season 8/Week 5): 26/30
- Dmitry & Mya (Season 9/Week 1): 21/30
Predicted score: 23/30

Kurt Warner & Anna Trebunskaya
- Anna & Evan Lysacek (Season 10/Week 1): 23/30
To me this is simply not enough information… so I’m going to try to compare with other football players.
- Edyta & Jason Taylor (Season 6/Week 4): 29/30
- Kym & Warren Sapp (Season 7/Week 3): 25/30
- Cheryl & Chad Ochocinco (Season 10/Week 7): 25/30
Predicted Score: 22/30

CHACHA
David Hasselhoff & Kym Johnson
- Kym & Jerry Springer (Season 3/Week 1): 16/30
- Kym & Joey Fatone (Season 4/Week 1): 24/30
- Kym & Penn Jillette (Season 6/Week 1): 16/30
- Kym & Warren Sapp (Season 7/Week 1): 21/30
- Kym & Donny Osmond (Season 9/Week 10): 27/30
Predicted score: 20/30

Florence Henderson & Corky Ballas
- Corky & Cloris Leachman (Season 7/Week 6): 15/30
To me this is simply not enough information… so I’m going to try to compare with other elder (40s +) female actresses.
- Fabian & Marlee Matlin (Season 6/Week 1): 22/30
- Damian & Pamela Anderson (Season 10/Week 1): 21/30
- Tony & Jane Seymour (Season 5/Week 7): 26/30
Predicted Score: 19/30

Kyle Massey & Lacey Schwimmer
- Lacey & Lance Bass (Season 7/Week 1): 22/30
- Lacey & Mark Dacascos (Season 9/Week 1): 21/30
To me this is simply not enough information… so I’m going to try to compare with other Disney related folks.
- Louis & Monique Coleman (Season 3/Week 8): 29/30
- Mark & Sabrina Bryan (Season 5/Week 1): 26/30
- Julianne & Cody Linley (Season 7/Week 1): 18/30
Predicted Score: 18/30

Bristol Palin & Mark Ballas
- Mark & Sabrina Bryan (Season 5/Week 1): 26/30
- Mark & Kristi Yamaguchi (Season 6/Week 7): 28/30
- Mark & Shawn Johnson (Season 8/Week 7): 28/30
To me this is simply not enough information… so I’m going to try to compare with other celebs whose occupation is not of the norm arenas of entertainment.
- Kym & Penn Jilette (Season 6/Week 1): 16/30
- Karina & Steve Wozniak (Season 8/Week 1): 13/30
- Cheryl & Tom DeLay (Season 9/Week 1): 16/30
- Ashly & Buzz Aldrin (Season 10/Week 1): 14/30
Predicted Score: 16/30

Audrina Patridge & Tony Dovolani
- Tony & Stacy Kiebler (Season 2/Week 7): 28/30
- Tony & Jane Seymour (Season 2/Week 5): 26/30
- Tony & Marissa Jaret Winokur (Season 6/Week 1): 18/30
- Tony & Susan Lucci (Season 7/Week 1): 15/30
- Tony & Melissa Rycroft (Season 8/Week 10): 27/30
Predicted score: 18/30

Mike Sorrentino & Karina Smirnoff
- Karina & Mario Lopez (Season 3/Week 1): 26/30
- Karina & Billy Ray Cyrus (Season 4/Week 1): 13/30
- Karina & Floyd Mayweather Jr (Season 5/Week 1): 15/30
- Karina & Mario (Season 6/Week 1): 24/30
- Karina & Steve Wozniak (Season 8/Week 1): 13/30
- Karina & Aaron Carter (Season 9/Week 1): 22/30
Predicted score: 19/30

And there you have it… how close… or far… am I going to get? Stay tuned to find out! See you at the other side. :D

September 20, 2010 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 11 – Who’s Dancing What…and When?

UPDATE: Here’s the full list of DWTS Premiere music with song title and artist.

Okay, here’s what I’ve gleaned…from Marianya. :-) I’ve also checked Wiki AND everyone’s twitter accounts. Dance order, if known, is after the pair’s name. Song is per TMZ – no clue on their accuracy so take it for what it’s worth. :-) I will update this post as more info becomes available.

ETA: ABC MESSAGE BOARD CLAIMS THAT FOR THE FIRST TIME THE PHONE # IS NOT MATCHING FIRST NIGHT DANCE ORDER. They want to “mix it up” according to the board. Anna’s Twitter seems to corroborate that, although it wouldn’t be the first time they pulled a last minute switch of dance order. We’ll see!! :-)

VIENNESE WALTZ:
Michael Bolton & Chelsie Hightower – Dancing 2nd
Song: “Life After You” Life

Margaret Cho & Louis van Amstel – Dancing 5th
Song: “We are the Champions” We (WTF??)

Rick Fox & Cheryl Burke – Dancing 4th
Song: “Crazy” Crazy (Patsy Cline version?? Cool.)

Jennifer Grey & Derek Hough – Dancing 11th
Song: “These Arms of Mine” These (Shocker. Not.)

Brandy & Maksim Chmerkovskiy – Dancing 6th
Song: “Cry Me Out” Cry

Kurt Warner & Anna Trebunskaya – Dancing 8th
Song: “This Ain’t a Love Song” This

CHACHA
David Hasselhoff & Kym Johnson – Dancing 12th
Song: “Sex Bomb” Sex (um, ick?)

Florence Henderson & Corky Ballas – Dancing 9th
Song: “Kiss Me Honey Honey Kiss Me” Kiss

Kyle Massey & Lacey Schwimmer – Dancing 3rd (crap spot)
Song: “My First Kiss” My

Bristol Palin & Mark Ballas – Dancing 7th
Song: “Mama Told Me Not to Come” Mama (bwahahahah….she told you to NOT do a lot more than that, sweetie. Sorry. Can’t resist that opening line. :-) )

Audrina Patridge & Tony Dovolani – Dancing 1st
Song: “California Gurls” California

Mike Sorrentino & Karina Smirnoff – Dancing 10th
Song: “Break Your Heart” Break (He wishes. :-) )


September 19, 2010 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 11 – Changes, As Per Usual

I saw this article a few days ago, but work has been such a nightmare that I’ve not had as much time to post random bits I find. Then I nearly forgot about it!! But then we were just discussing in the comments how every single season the producers feel this inexplicable need to tinker. Tinker, tinker, tinker. Pretty sure this comes from a press release, but The Examiner doesn’t provide a link – for that reason, take it with a tiny grain of salt…or hope it’s not true?? I dunno, some of these might be interesting. And at least by putting them out there NOW, no one can cry that their favorite is being conspired against. :-) From The Examiner:

Other than its new cast of diverse celebrities, ABC has announced even more changes for the new season of Dancing With the Stars. “We’re trying to make the show more like a real ballroom dance competition,” says executive producer Conrad Green. So, how does ABC plan on shaking up a show that scored monster ratings last season? Here’s a look at what’s new for season eleven of Dancing With the Stars:

• Rock Night: This new themed night will feature classic rock and roll. All of the teams will dance to the tunes of classic rockers, like The Rolling Stones, The Beatles, The Eagles, Elvis Pressley, Queen, Chicago and others.
• A Striped-down Acoustic Night: The audience will be seated on the dance floor to make it a more intimate setting.
• Instant Choreography Challenge: The couples will practice their assigned style of dance all week, but they won’t get their music until 20 minutes before they have to go out and perform.

I think we all know where the “Acoustic Night” came from – I certainly hope they are compensating Derek and Chelsie appropriately. :-) I’m all for it – I think their Paso was very powerful for it’s stripped down feel. But can everyone pull it off??

Classic Rock?? No big deal. Now, the Choreography Challenge could either be interesting or a disaster. Some pros seem to ignore the music anyway, but others are very musical. It could negatively impact them.

ETA: Carrie Ann confirms the changes and adds an additional one (which I hate) on The Insider (Video on the site – Thanks to Jennifer):

In addition, Carrie Ann, Len Goodman and Bruno Tonioli will be joined by a fourth judge this season when some of the favorite contestants from the past will join the judging panel. No one is confirmed yet, but the “DWTS” judge says she would like to see Drew Lachey, Emmitt Smith and Jerry Springer, among others, return.

What do you all think??

September 17, 2010 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

First Meeting Footage!! DWTS Season 11

And it is AWESOME.  You can read their write up at TV Squad.com – thanks to Voguerista for the heads up on this one!  Hilarious!!

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Miscellaneous Media – September 16, 2010

Maks and Brandy on ET – I sure like Brandy. She might even get me to be more positive about Maks. :-)

Tony and Audrina on Lopez Tonight – I dunno people, she’s like Joanna part deux. Can she make it to the final four??

Kurt and Anna on one of the local ABC affiliates. Joker reported clearly doesn’t see dancing as a sport.

Bwahahahahaha….this guy might actually entertain me way more than annoy me. :-)

Karina and the Sitch

Chelsie/Michael and Kurt/Anna on Entertainment Tonight

Rick and Cheryl – he looks pretty good. He and Kurt both look a tad stiff, but I bet that goes away.

Margaret seems cool. Don’t know how she’ll do as a dancer though.

September 16, 2010 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS 11 Stat Class: Who has the Edge? Part 2

Hello! Here it is… my calculated rankings for the celebs this season. Mind you, unlike others on this site, these do not reflect my opinions, but rather a calculation that I am attempting to use to predict the placement of the celebs based on past data. Whether this is true or not remains to be seen, but it is fun to speculate nonetheless.

For a quick refresher for other bloggers’ opinions of rankings please see Heidi and Courtney’s (Part I and Part II) posts as well as John’s posts about the odds/competitiveness factor and the number of twitter followers for each celeb.

If you recall from DWTS 11 Stat Class: Who has the Edge? Part 1, I gave a breakdown of the professional dancers as they were place by attempting to normalize the average. Granted with a built in bias there is only so much that can be done.

Before I go through the individual celebs here is an idea of how each age group placed on average through all ten seasons of the show thus far from highest to lowest:
1.) Teens (ages 10 thru 19) – 2 celebs
2.) 20s (ages 20 thru 29) – 17 celebs
3.) 30s (ages 30 thru 39) – 48 celebs
4.) 60s (ages 60 thru 69) – 7 celebs
5.) 40s (ages 40 thru 49) – 27 celebs
6.) 50s (ages 50 thru 59) – 12 celebs
7.) 80s on up (ages 80 on up) – 2 celebs
Note: Florence Henderson is the first person to be on the show while in their 70s, thus there is no normalized average for that age group as of yet.

Now that we know which celebs will be participating this season and who their professional partner will be, it’s time to calculate and attempt to predict how the celebs would place in the upcoming season. First I will give an analysis and a little of my opinions belief of each celeb and how each of the three factors (Age, Primary Occupation and Professional Partner) either help or hinder them as individuals.

Brandy
Age: 31
Typically those in their 30s do reasonably well on the show. Trailing those in their teens, and 20s (is that really any surprise?).
Primary Occupation: Singer
Singers in general stay in the middle of the pack placing just out of the semi-finals but better than most of the worst dancers. Mya being the only one to break out of that middle-of-the-pack while Macy Gray exited earlier in her season. Singers also incurred the most pre-season injuries (Lil Romeo and Jewel)
Professional Partner: Maksim Chmerkovskiy
Prior to his Season 6 vacation, Maksim placed fairly well with his celeb, typically hitting the midway point (Willa Ford being an exception). However, aside from Erin, Maksim hasn’t done quite as well with his partners, then again they were both actresses. Brandy could find herself closer to the top half of the middle-of-the-pack group. She might even find herself in the semi-finals… but I’m not too sure about beyond that.

Jennifer Grey
Age: 50
Oddly enough those in their 50s, on average, has done worse than those in their 60s. Sympathy vote perhaps? Granted Jennifer recently turned 50 so she might still have a little bit of that spunk from those in their 40s, but even those in their 40s didn’t do as well as those as their 60s.
Primary Occupation: Actress
Actresses don’t really do well on DWTS rarely breaking the midway point. The ones that do break the midway point either were very popular or have some sort of dance experience or had picked up choreo before. Jennifer picked up choreography for the infamous last dance on Dirty Dancing, but that was over 20 years ago… they say that dancing is like riding a bike though.
Professional Partner: Derek Hough
Granted all this could be balanced out by the mere fact that her partner is Derek Hough. Right now he has the highest placement average of all the pros. Just adding the Derek factor into the equation… she her chances of getting into the semi-finals or more just went up.

Margaret Cho
Age: 41
Those in their 40s hit the midpoint of the competition trailing those in their 60s. Going beyond that depends on other factors as well.
Primary Occupation: Comedian
To me, I’ve known her more as a comedian than as an actress. So I’m placing her in the comedians group. Comedians in general have the worst finishing trends on DWTS, placing dead last on average.
Professional Partner: Louis van Amstel
However, Margaret could buck the trend like Niecy kind of did. After all they both have Louis van Amstel as their partner. Despite doing decently with other celebs in the past, Louis has stayed largely in the middle of the pack. So the question would be, would the Louis factor help Margaret like it helped Niecy? It’s up the viewer, and the GLBT community I think :D

Audrina Patridge
Age: 25
Celebs in their 20s do rather well in the competition just behind those in their teens.
Primary Occupation: Reality TV Star
On the other side of this coin, Reality Stars in general hit the lower half on average. Those Reality Stars in their 20s have actually hit the midway point in competition… so… Audrina could be a surprise and goes up on the rankings.
Professional Partner: Tony Dovolani
And then there’s her partner. Tony’s been kind of up and down throughout his tenure on the show. With a ringer-type he does well (who doesn’t?) but with non-ringers, not so much. The other fact is that he has worked with two Reality Stars from opposite sides of the spectrum. So this partnership is a bit of a tossup.

Florence Henderson
Age: 76
Believe it or not this is the first time that DWTS has someone in their 70s. So there isn’t much material (ok not any) to work off of. So let’s look at those in their 60s and 80s. Those in their 60s tend to do a lot better than those in their 80s (who tend to finish towards the back of the pack).
Primary Occupation: Actress
And based off of some of the comments I made about actresses for Jennifer Grey, this is one that I don’t believe would get terribly far in the competition. But if everyone loves Mrs Brady, who knows? Maybe that star power would get her to the midway point.
Professional Partner: Corky Ballas
Corky has only been on the show once before and he placed seventh in a cast of thirteen partners, so there is no telling how he would do this time around. If the averages of the other two factors are any indication… he might have his work cut out for him.

Bristol Palin
Age: 19
Uh, this “known” person hits the prime age group. Those in their teens do rather well on average, and is it really any surprise as to why? They are young and malleable… theoretically ;-)
Primary Occupation: Other
On the other hand… The “others” are known persons that don’t fit the stereotypical celebs/stars type. And those in this “others” group almost hit dead last on the ranks, just ahead of the comedians.
Professional Partner: Mark Ballas
Mark Ballas tends to falter the most with non-ringer types… the closest similarity being Kim Kardashian. But Bristol is young, she could theoretically win audience members over… Who knows? But the numbers tell me otherwise.

Michael Bolton
Age: 56
Please see Jennifer Grey
Primary Occupation: Singer
Please see Brandy. Though Michael Bolton is well known for a lot longer than Brandy has, plus his music has a wider reaching net. Most of his demographic (I’m assuming) intersects the demographic of the show so he may have that to his advantage.
Professional Partner: Chelsie Hightower
Now let’s add little Chelsie into the mix and now you have someone that could hit the midway point perhaps, and has a semi-decent chance of getting past that midway point…

Mike Sorrentino
Age: 27
Please see Audrina Patridge
Primary Occupation: Reality TV Star
Please see Audrina Patridge
Professional Partner: Karina Smirnoff
Basically the same as Audrina, only male. One main point though is that male reality stars fare worse on average than female reality stars. Karina, by contrast, has hit middle of the road pack status with her celebs in recent seasons. So unless he’s drop dead gorgeous he may hit the midway point. Personally between Mike and Karina it may be more the Battle of the Abs rather than Dancing with the Stars.

David Hasselhoff
Age: 58
Please see Jennifer Grey… Another celeb in their 50s? That makes it what? Three? Gee whiz people. It’s like they are desperately trying to create another John O’Hurley. But celebs in their 60s do better than those in their 50s. Well David is pretty close to 60, maybe he’d find himself just past the midway mark…
Primary Occupation: Actor
Anyway actors tend to do better than actresses (yes I ended up separating the two). There is just something about their charm and charisma that makes the older female demographic (I’m assuming here) just want to pick up the phone for them.
Professional Partner: Kym Johnson
And of course there is that beautiful blonde Aussie bombshell that has probably worked the most with male celebs in their 50s on up. She has had a decent track record and knows how to turn on the entertainment charm for the male celebs. This might be another Donny Osmond in the works… but David is no Osmond, David’s an actor that branched out while Donny was an entertainer ever since he could dance and sing. So David stands a good chance of making it past the halfway point… I don’t know about the finals though.

Kurt Warner
Age: 39
Please see Brandy. Although he’s closer to his 40s so you might also want to look at Margaret Cho for the age range commentary.
Primary Occupation: NFL
He’s not as known as some of the other ex-NFL players that has come through the doors. But after looking him up on Wikipedia it does seem like he has a following of sorts. Football players tend to do really well in the standings (ok, on average they hit the number one spot), and the younger they are the higher up the ladder they tend to get. So I’m expecting him to go past the midway point and quite possibly compete at least in the semis and if I really want to go out there he could go to the top two. But quarterbacks do the least amount of running which could work against him.
Professional Partner: Anna Trebunskaya
In the few seasons that she has been on she has placed second with an Olympian and an NFL player. This bodes well for Kurt… but being in the position of the “non-athlete” of the NFL doesn’t really help matters any, but time will tell.

Kyle Massey
Age: 19
Please see Bristol Palin.
Primary Occupation: Disney
He’s a Disney Channel star which automatically brings him votes. Add to that his age and possible fan base I could see him knocking on the semi-finals door… as for walking through? That’s a whole other story.
Professional Partner: Lacey Schwimmer
Lacey, Lacey, Lacey… she’s only been on the show for three seasons and she’s done all right, however Kyle isn’t the same strong Disney powerhouse that Sabrina Bryan was or even Monique Coleman. The series that most people would know (That’s So Raven) was so three years ago, and whatever he has going now isn’t as known either. But Disney related celebs have fared rather well… and we can’t discount the Disney power.

Rick Fox
Age: 41
Please see Margaret Cho
Primary Occupation: NBA
But there has only been one other NBA player and that was Clyde Drexler from waaaaay back when. So there isn’t much to go on (maybe I should do a breakdown by heights). If we expand from NBA players to athletes in general they typically do hit the midway point in the competition, after that it’s entirely up to them. But since Clyde never made it to the halfway point in his season could Rick do better? Who knows
Professional Partner: Cheryl Burke
With Cheryl Burke as his partner his chances just got better. Cheryl has had practice working with athletes from all walks of life, and has been in the top half of the casts in almost every season she has been on (Wayne Newton being a notable exception). Perhaps Rick would be able to get his wish and surpass Kurt Warner on the show?

Now that we know my thoughts on the factors and how they could affect the celebs, lets look at how the factors add up… here is my calculated ranking by elimination sequence:
Week 1.) Margaret Cho
No surprise here based on what we know, but I’m hoping she’ll do as well as Niecy did and go further.
Week 2.) Florence Henderson
A little surprised, but considering her age and her profession, the only thing that could help her go further is her fan base… she’s Mrs Brady afterall.
Week 3.) Rick Fox
With so little information about NBA players, this is the best that could be done, which doesn’t bode well for Cheryl Burke… could they still buck the trend? The jury’s out on that one.
Week 4.) Audrina Patridge
Well considering that both Audrina and Mike have similar circumstances coming into the competition, most everything relies on who they ended up getting as their partner. Since Audrina’s partner is Tony her chances of lasting in the competition is a lot lower than that of Mike.
Week 5.) Michael Bolton
Age is working against him, as well as being simply a singer versus an entertainer. This is going to depend largely on the voting audience unless he has some sweet moves that he has kept largely hidden from the audience.
Week 6.) David Hasselhoff
Same as Michael Bolton, with age working against him and technically being an actor rather than entertainer I’m not expecting David to last that much longer than Michael Bolton or vice versa.
Week 7.) Jennifer Grey
If Jennifer makes it past the midway point it would be primarily due to the sheer power of Derek Hough. Which is a good thing too, because he could bring out the best from her without (hopefully) resorting to iconic dances.
Week 8.) Mike Sorrentino
With Karina as his partner, Mike could do rather well, granted good eye candy is always a good thing as long as he could dance.
Week 9.) Brandy
As mentioned by others already, if Brandy gets far along in the competition it would be due to her age and sex appeal… but if she can’t dance then everything else is a moot point.
Week 10.) Bristol Palin
Don’t kill me!!!! Youth does it everytime and since we have only had two teens on the show and one won their season while the other got fourth place in their season then it stands to reason that teens could do well this time around.
Runner Up.) Kurt Warner
Really… this is no surprise considering history… and the power of Anna T.
Winner.) Kyle Massey
Again don’t kill me… he’s young and there have only been two teens on the show prior to this, plus he’s Disney… all Disney people have done well in their respective seasons. The only problem with this is that Kyle’s “big show” ended three years ago while other Disney related people had a current project that kept them current. So this to me can’t work… even though the numbers tell me otherwise.

I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS11 Preliminary Power Rankings, Part II

So last week, I formulated who wouldn’t last past the midpoint of the competition in part I of my season 11 preliminary power ranking.  Today, I’ll reveal my top half – and who I think is going to walk away with that mirrorball trophy.  Enjoy & dicuss!

6.) Florence Henderson & Corky Ballas – I think these two could be interchangeable with Michael & Chelsie, depending on how memorable Florence can be.  No doubt Florence will likely be the better dancer – she’s had legit experience, plus the footage I’ve seen of her practicing so far looks reeeeaaally good.  She seems like a very focused, hard worker.  She’s also got the boon of being the oldest cast member, which seems to bring its own voting fanbase with it.  The one problem I think Flo might have is the comparisons she’s likely gonna get to Cloris, since that’s been Corky’s only other partner – and she and Cloris are NOTHING alike, besides their older age.  While part of Cloris’ appeal was her outrageous behavior, it’s something we’re not going to see out of Flo…like I’ve mentioned before, Flo is very demure and classy, and not the type to throw out off-color comments and innuendo.  As for Corky and his fanbase…that’s a little harder to predict.  He’s only been on the show once before, and it seemed like it was his partner’s outrageous behavior that kept them around so long.  I’m not sure if Mark’s (or Derek’s, for that matter) fans are gonna throw any votes his direction, or if he has enough of a fanbase of his own to really make a difference.  Regardless, I’m actually kind of excited for these two – it will be nice to see what a dynamite choreographer like Corky can really do with a partner that’s willing to work. 

5.) Kurt Warner & Anna Trebunskaya – Now Kurt could be the worst dancer in the competition this season, and I still don’t think he’d get sent home any sooner than week 6 or 7, just due to being a former NFL player (the worst any of them have done is 7th place).  On top of that, he’s the first quarterback we’ve ever had on the show, and the QB’s are typically the most well-known players on each team. But I think Kurt could actually be pretty good, if his work ethic during dance practice is anything like his work ethic on the football field.  And really – Kurt just seems like a genuinely good guy.  Comes from humble roots, evangelical Christian, family man, does a lot of charity work…I’m not sure there’s a more likeable guy in the competition.  He also seems to have a goofy side (see The Great Previous Dance Experience Debate, Part II), which always seems to balance nicely with a serious work ethic.  I think Anna has also beefed up her fanbase after having such a breakout season with Evan – people have warmed to her considerably, and she seems to have gotten a good deal more comfortable with her own choreography.  But while these two will likely be Mr. & Mrs. Congeniality this season, I don’t think Kurt necessarily has the dance chops (or the explosive personality) to make it to the semifinals.  

4.) David Hasselhoff & Kym Johnson – I’m saying this right now – I don’t think the Hoff is going to be a fantastic dancer.  Decent, maybe; but not great.  However, I do think he will be this season’s funny man, and that will take him farther than his dance skills will.  From the bit of media that I’ve seen so far with him in it, I’m having flashbacks of Donny in season 9 – the Hoff is definitely hamming it up.  Very chatty, cracking a lot of jokes, but seems enthusiastic…I do think he’ll make an honest effort, but I’m just not sure he’s got a ton of natural skill to pair it with.  But that’s ok, because if there’s one thing Kym is really good at, it’s taking an okay partner and giving them choreography that really lets them shine – I think that’s exactly what she did with Donny & Warren, and I’m sure that’s what she’ll do with David.  Plus Kym is quite possibly the most likeable female pro in the competition – mellow, sweet, and drop dead gorgeous.  I think they’ll look good together, and will likely be one of the couples out there that is truly enjoying themselves – it probably won’t trump some of the better-dancing couples, but I could see it taking them to the semifinal. 

3.) Jennifer Grey & Derek Hough – Looks like Heidi and I are in agreement on this one – Team Jenougher will probably make it to the finale, but just don’t quite have the juice to go all the way.  Like Heidi, I agree that Jennifer’s age and recent health issues will likely hinder this pair a bit; however, I do think she will be a sentimental fave with the voters, and they will come out to vote for her in big ways…even if she isn’t the greatest.  She does have a big advantage in having Derek; choreographically, I think he’s the strongest male pro and the one most likely to bring out the best in his partners.  He’s also got an uber-strong fanbase, and they’re smart about how they vote.  The only thing I can’t really predict is if there’s going to be any backlash from his win last season – I can’t decide if those that are still pissed about Nicole winning are going to refuse to vote for Derek now, even if they really do like what he’s doing with Jen.  Ditto for the same people that are clinging to the (flimsy) notion that Jennifer is a “professional dancer” and that DWTS is strictly for stars with “no dance experience” (keep dreaming) – are they gonna refuse to vote too, just on principle? By the same token, are they gonna refuse to vote for Brandy, Florence, & the Hoff too? I would like to think that in a season like this, with a fairly level playing field, that people wouldn’t try to concoct conspiracy theories like that – but there’s always some renegades.  That whole mess aside, I do think these two will be one of the stronger couples this season…but I’m not sure they’re going to have enough momentum to win. 

2.) Brandy & Maksim Chmerkovskiy – I’m sure there will be shock, awe, and outrage over this one, but when it comes down to it I just don’t think Brandy is going to be the stereotypical “pop-star ringer” that everyone is saying she is.  As we proved with the previous dance experience post, Brandy’s career has not been nearly as dance-heavy as, say, Nicole, Sabrina, or even Mel B’s.  And unlike Nicole & Sabrina, who were still in the high point of their careers when they did the show, Brandy’s been out of the spotlight for a little while now…aside from an album she released last year that flopped, and the reality show she has with her family on VH1 (which I’m not sure paints her in the best light), she hasn’t really been up to anything “big” in over 10 years.  I’m not sure how much of her original fanbase is still invested enough to come out and vote for her, which will likely cause her to rely heavily on pulling people in with great dancing.  And from what I’ve seen from the media so far – Brandy seems like a focused, hard worker, but doesn’t seem to be a natural when it comes to ballroom.  However, I do think she has an advantage in having Maks, who does have a large fanbase, and is a good choreographer – when he isn’t pissing off the judges or throwing fits (then again, like Heidi, I blame a lot of his less savory behavior last season on Erin, who seemed to bring out the worst in him, for whatever reason).  However, it is encouraging to see Maks & Brandy practicing and no tantrums being thrown by either party – the energy between them seems much more synergistic than it was between him and some of his other partners.  I daresay this will likely result in some really good, memorable routines.  However, when it comes down to it, I think they’re no match for… 

1.) Rick Fox & Cheryl Burke – Ok, pick your jaw up off the floor, and let me explain why I think these two could be the couple to beat this season.  First off, athletes generally do well (duh) – and pretty male athletes tend to do REALLY well (think Jason Taylor, Apolo Ohno, Helio Castroneves).  And when a pretty athlete teams up with a pretty female pro – watch out.  I have already said multiple times that I think these two are going to be this season’s most handsome couple.  Plus Cheryl is statistically the strongest female pro on the show – two wins, one 2nd place finish, one 3rd place finish, and 2 trips to the semi finals in her 9 seasons on the show – and she’s also one of the toughest, which Rick has said works well for him.  I also have a sneaking suspicion that Rick is not completely inept in the rhythm department – ex-wifey Vanessa Williams was a fantastic dancer, and I can’t imagine that a little bit of know-how didn’t rub off on him during their 5-year marriage.  Rick also has the boon of being a star not only from his basketball career, but also his acting career – he’s appeared on quite a few TV shows.  Both he and Cheryl seem to have pretty good-sized fanbases on their own, too, which gives them a bit of an edge over couples where the celeb isn’t as popular as the pro, and vice-versa.  Seems like this couple has a pretty good hand to play…but they do seem to be keeping their poker face up.  Not a whole lot of media leakage on these two, which makes me think that they’re really trying to play up the whole surprise factor when Rick turns out to be pretty damn good.  Cheryl seemed to do the same thing with Gilles, and look how he panned out.  But I daresay it will be interesting to see what these two have up their sleeves ;-)

So there you have it – I’ve laid out my predictions for this season’s couples, without any of them having actually set foot on the floor.  Definitely hoping for some surprises this season, since this is the most level the playing field has been in quite some time.  But what do you guys think? Am I onto something? Am I full of crap? SPEAK UP! :-D

September 15, 2010 I Written By

Ultrasound sales specialist by day, semi-knowledgeable DWTS fan by night...with a smattering of hair & makeup enthusiast, occasional model, and crazy cat lady peppered in to make things REALLY interesting ;-) I might pee my pants in happiness if Donnie Wahlberg ever does DWTS - or if they ever use "Sunglasses at Night" as a paso doble. Check out some of my other work at pureamericasgottalent.com!

DWTS Season 11 Media of the Day – September 14, 2010

Cheryl Burke and Rick Fox Day. :-)First look at the Situation. :-)Rick Fox on Access Hollywood – they do show some rehearsal video, but I think the bulk of the AH video will be tomorrow.

The Hoff on Jimmy Kimmel Live – Part 1; Thanks to Vogue for the heads up. :-)

Oh, god, I find this guy oddly charming – but I have been drinking. I’m just saying. :-) There appear to be two more parts after this one on Jimmy Kimmel’s YouTube channel.

September 14, 2010 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 11 – A Commercial and Some Media

ABC has a commercial up on YouTube that gives a little bit more of a look at the contestants. Bristol is the only one that lets Mark do all the talking.

Access Hollywood with some stuff from Maks and Brandy that we’ve seen before – but before that a special treat for the men on this site. Edyta show one of the Bachelor guys some moves while is psycho girlfriend glares. Damn, this woman’s body is astounding. :-)

I’ve got ten bucks that the Paparazzi manufacture drama.

Audrina and Tony on Extra – I dunno, Audrina has NO hips at all.

Erin on the new contestants.

September 11, 2010 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 11 – Pre-Season Media, September 10, 2010

Maks and Brandy on Access Hollywood. All I’m going to say is: I love Brandy – so direct and funny. And I like her WAY better than her partner. :-)

Slightly different version of the above interview:

And a third version of Access Hollywood. Derek and Jennifer taped theirs today, so expect to see them on Monday.

Speaking of Derek and Jennifer – Entertainment Tonight. I don’t think Derek is lifting her EVER – he’s afraid. With good reason.

Paparazzi Video with a little of everyone – from ET

Corky and Florence on ET – Has Corky had his eyes done?

September 10, 2010 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)