Anyone else find it somewhat (ok, not at all) coincidental that the two women likely in the most trouble with voters were also at the top of the leaderboard, yet had dances that were not even close to tied for the best of the night?? Don’t get me wrong, I like both Melissa and Kelly very much, but even with docked points for breaking the rules, Shawn and Apolo belong at the top of the leaderboard. The only thing that comes to my mind is that they are doing fine in votes, and Melissa and Kelly both need protection from Kirstie and Bristol. Why do they warrant protection and Drew and Helio don’t?? Well…Drew and Helio don’t work for ABC. Melissa and Kelly (and Gilles) both do work for ABC. There are no coincidences. Sure, Apolo and Shawn are likely fine – but it chaps my ass that for two weeks in a row Apolo has gotten screwed and this week Shawn joins him. There is no way – no way – that either Melissa or Kelly deserve to be a full point and a half ahead of Apolo. I say, give them each a 25.5 or 26, Apolo a 27 or 28 and Shawn a 27 (only because she broke the rules).
Note to Mark, Louis and Maks – Derek is the example that you all should look to when being chastised for breaking the rules. All Derek and Shawn wanted from Len was the admission that he liked the dance very much. That is telling. They both knew full well they were going to be docked – the only question was by how much. I’m still in awe of how much air Derek got when doing the jump split or whatever it’s called. He got higher than Shawn did! As for Apolo – honey, sexy ain’t work for you, you is HOT. Ten times hotter than Gilles. Not like that is a stretch this season.
ANYway, let’s analyze who has the best shot of sticking around and who…doesn’t.
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Well, I hate to say it, but barring a miracle, I think Drew might be toast. That makes me sad, because I like Drew, and Bristol? Not so much. Kirstie only needs one more vote than him and Bristol needs a number that she easily got over him once before. I have a hard time imagining a scenario where she doesn’t do it again, especially since I think most viewers are going to view her with sympathy, thanks to how the show aired the footage last night. Anyway, let’s look at what Bristol has to do to stick around. She needs TWO of the following:
– Bristol needs 5,400 more votes per million votes cast than either Kirstie or Drew, OR;
– Bristol needs 9,000 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;
– Bristol needs 10,800 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER Gilles, Sabrina, Helio or Apolo, OR;
– Bristol needs 14,400 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;
– Bristol needs 16,200 more votes per million votes cast the either Kelly or Melissa.
Hmmm….looking at it like that, I’m not entirely sure that Kelly or Melissa are safe. But they probably are – I think Drew is toast in this scenario. The question is – who else is toast?? Bristol, as the low scorer, needs to jump over TWO people in order to stay, not just one. Boy oh boy – tonight could be interesting. My gut tells me that since Helio already made a trip to the bottom two, that he’s the likely second eliminee (sorry Brooke). Emmitt might be over rated with the audience, or one of the top three could be in trouble simply out of fans certainty that they are safe. Or it could be someone else in the middle of the pack. Anyway… Read more..