Where were we?  Oh yeah – what would happen to DWTS if we made it more like SCD?  Well, I think a lot. Kind of.  :-)

Of the differences I outlined in my previous post on the subject, there were a few BIG ones:

• The scoring difference;
• The voting duration difference;
• The voting style difference;
• The number of judges.

The number of judges on the two shows isn’t as huge, IMO, as the other three.  By having four judges (or five) instead of three, the only effect is the slight watering down of the impact of a rogue judge.  Similar to how having two or three dances in a week softens the result of one bad dance, for example.  You have one bad dance, followed by one great dance, and you can still end up in second or third place – like Derek and Joanna in Week 9.  The same thing happens with four or five judges – you have one mean judge that scores you badly but the other three score you high, that one judge’s score isn’t a huge of an impact on your total.

The scoring difference is a different story.  Remember my “Shocking Elimination” post and the explanation of the scoring and the math?  Remember in Week 9, when the Judges scores were worked out we had the following:

Judges Scores:
Mya = 87
Joanna = 81
Kelly = 78
Donny = 72

Add up the total points given = 318
Now figure the percentage of total points each celeb got:
Mya = 27.36
Joanna = 25.47
Kelly = 24.53
Donny = 22.64

If they were on SCD, they would be ranked as follows:

Mya = 4
Joanna = 3
Kelly = 2
Donny = 1

So instead of a 4.72 point difference between Donny and Mya, it shrinks to 3 points. It may not seem like a lot, but it could be.  Not only that, but Mya’s lead over both Joanna and Kelly shrinks as well.  Mya had a nearly two point lead over Joanna – it shrinks to 1.

What happens when you add in viewer votes?  What if Kelly, for example, actually had just a bit more viewer votes that Mya, putting her second behind Donny.  Quite conceivable, really. On DWTS it might not be big enough to beat Mya’s judges scores, but on SCD? That makes the viewer ranking the following:

Donny = 4
Kelly = 3
Mya = 2
Joanna = 1

When you add them together, you have:

Donny = 5
Mya = 6
Kelly = 5
Joanna = 4

Which is presumably how it turned out. But what if Joanna had more votes than Mya? What if, using the DWTS system it wasn’t enough to beat the difference in the judges scores, but it was still more actual votes?  That would give you SCD viewer ranks of:

Donny = 4
Mya = 1
Kelly = 3
Joanna = 2

When you add the judges rank and the viewer rank together:

Donny = 1 + 4 = 5
Mya 4 + 1 = 5
Kelly 2 + 3 = 5
Joanna 3 + 2 = 5

What happens in a four way tie? Viewer votes win, Mya goes home over Joanna.  Of course, we didn’t have the dance off in the final four, did SCD? I don’t think they did, but that *might* have saved Mya – but no guarantee.  And this doesn’t hold true in the Final because the judges scores don’t actually count – it’s all viewers votes. Mya still loses.  But think about the lack of Judges scores in the final tally!! There is no storyboarding – no judges manipulation in favor of who they consider the best dancer! That’s pretty significant too, although I wager some voters listen to the judges.

At the end of the day, if Joanna had gone to the final instead of Mya – Donny still wins. But I would have had Derek for one more week. And it’s all about me. I think this difference in scoring has the potential to be huge – think about early on when Donny was way down in the ranks but way up in viewer votes? Would his chances of going home have been higher? I think so. But how do the other differences work in concert with this one? Do they even the playing field once again?

I’ll attempt to discuss the rest of it in Part III.

Huge thanks to Codebear on Youtube – he/she got a ton of media with just makes my job easier.

Good Morning America!

Mya and Dmitry on Entertainment Tonight

Donny and Kym on Entertainment Tonight

Kelly and Louis on Entertainment Tonight

Kelly and Louis on TV Guide Network

Final three on The View

The View exit interview

I hope.

First, on E! from Tuesday, Julianne outs herself as a Twilight fanatic who belongs to Team Edward – for further outage, check her twitter when she tells everyone she and her sisters went to the midnight showing on thurday night/friday morning here in Nashville. Julianne also talks about Chuck. Also Cheryl interviews Mya and calls Len “a pervert”.

The Insider makes use of Pap Henry’s off hand question to Derek about Playgirl – this is how rumors get started, ya’ll.

E! News from Wednesday – The elimination results in (very) brief.

Holy cow! Entertainment Tonight covers someone other than Donny – or should I say, in *addition* to Donny!! Maybe it’s bad luck for the couple, since Derek and Joanna get eliminated the next night.

Entertainment Tonight from Wednesday Night – Marie and Mary Hart

Reality Chat from Tuesday – and this is what I was talking about in my “Shocking” Elimination post. Votes are *everything* – listen to Rosanna Tvarez talk about Kelly Osbourne. She clearly says that she WANTS Kelly to win – that might not be who should or who will win. They both admit that Mya is the better dancer, and maybe Joanna – but Rosanna is emotionally invested in Kelly. I’m seeing a lot of that across the net too – I think that this season is anybody’s to win. So, which fanbase will muster the votes. And all three couples better have KILLER freestyles – and not just technically good, but one that packs an emotional punch.

One of the things that drives me absolutely crazy is the headlines related to DWTS at this point in the season – well, really, all times of the season. “Shocking Elimination!!!” Even sites dedicated to DWTS, who should know better. Um, peeps? Only if you don’t do math. This past week it was Joanna’s “shocking elimination” – geez, where have these people been?? Joanna up against:

At this point in the season, all the voters are focusing on four people. The vote is only divided four ways. Does that matter? Well, I guess it depends on how you look at it. It could matter when you have a relative unknown up against three famous (or notorious) people, two of them being accomplished performers. Oh, but “Joanna had high scores,” you might say. “She must really be unpopular or not well liked,” you might say, in order for her to be voted out when Donny was so far behind her in judges scores.

I say BULL. It doesn’t matter what the judges scores are, unless there is an extreme difference (and I don’t mean 10 points)…because of the MATH. Here’s how the show supposedly works:

Judges Scores:
Mya = 87
Joanna = 81
Kelly = 78
Donny = 72

Add up the total points given = 318
Now figure the percentage of total points each celeb got:
Mya = 27.36
Joanna = 25.47
Kelly = 24.53
Donny = 22.64

As you can see, there is a relatively small difference between the scores; less than one percent difference between Joanna and Kelly, and only 1.88 percent between Joanna and Mya. Donny is only 2.83 percent behind Joanna! Keep in mind that he is DONNY OSMOND. Remember Marie versus Jennie Garth? Same situation. Same pro on the losing end.

According to the rules of the show, the contestant’s share of the judges points is added to their percentage of the viewer votes. What that means is that that if Joanna receives 25 percent of the vote and Kelly and Donny receive 25.95 and 27.84 percent of the vote, respectively, Joanna goes home. Because the judges share is added to the voter share:

Joanna 25.47+25=50.47
Kelly24.53+25.95=50.48
Donny22.64+27.84=50.48

As you can see, a relatively minor difference in the vote can send Joanna home over Kelly or Donny. Because the contestant’s share of the viewer votes is never revealed, you can never be sure who is going to leave. There is no way to measure who is “popular” beyond anecdotal evidence. Go back and do the math on Aaron – was he really disliked, or was he just a little behind because he turned a few people off? Just because he was at the top of the leader board and went home doesn’t mean everyone hated him – not at all. It just doesn’t take much.

Now, if there are any Mya/Dmitry fans out there saying “She can’t lose!! She’s so fabulous!!” Wrong – she absolutely CAN lose and it won’t be difficult, unless the judges REALLY go out on a limb and keep a good ten to fifteen points between Mya, and Donny/Kelly. Will they? History says that they won’t go radical on the scoring in the finale – unless Donny has another meltdown, there won’t be a 16 point difference between them, or a ten point difference between Mya and Kelly. But, for the sake of argument, let’s say that the judges break with tradition (and stop covering their own butts for fear of scoring the winner really low) and keep the spread as it was last week. I’m going to assume that the “four dances” rumor is accurate. That means the scores would be as follows:

Judges Scores (total possible is 120):
Mya = 118
Kelly = 108
Donny = 102

Add up the total points given = 328
Now figure the percentage of total points each celeb got:
Mya = 35.98
Kelly = 32.93
Donny = 31.1

Again, the difference between Donny and Mya is ONLY 4.88 percent, and the difference between Kelly and Mya is only 3.07 percent.

So, my questions are two fold:

Can Donny garner 4.89 percent MORE than Mya in terms of viewer votes??
AND
Can Kelly garner 3.08 percent more than Mya in terms of viewer votes??

Keep in mind that I’m *assuming* that the spread will be similar. What if it’s not?? Personally, based purely on math and anecdotal evidence, I think that Donny can beat Mya handily. The real question is – can Kelly beat Mya? I would NOT consider that “shocking”.

However, since we have no clue about how the votes have been stacking up all along it’s very difficult to be sure. And no, that whole “in jeopardy” thing doesn’t count for a hill of beans – it’s all crap and manipulation. Unless ole Tom says, “The bottom two are…” then you don’t really know. They freely use “jeopardy” as a manipulation/drama tool. I certainly believe that they can’t rig who goes and who wins, but I do believe they can pretend someone is in a fake bottom two – no law against it.  Another thing that ALWAYS amuses me is that fans of a given couple always forget that when someone is voted out, often the people who voted for them vote for someone else – if ya go around trashing the voted out couple and rejoicing their being booted…well, odds are good that their fans won’t vote for YOUR favorite. And, as I’ve shown, every vote counts.  Mya and Donny fans should be careful – they could see a bunch of Joanna and Aaron fans (among others) voting for KELLY.  Think 3.08 percent.

So, you’ve heard the complaints about all three of these finalists, and you have an idea of their fanbases. Who has the math working for them??  And who will have the killer freestyle – some people say that means EVERYTHING.

**I used excel to do the math and I rounded – let me know if you see a math error.

Access Hollywood with Kelly and her parents, and Derek and Joanna:

Derek and Joanna on The View:

Entertainment Tonight continues it’s love affair with Donny Osmond:

Extra from Tuesday, November 17 – Julianne at the Twilight premiere (she’s a HUGE fan according to Derek and she did tweet a picture of her with Rob Pattinson the other night – I officially hate her. ), plus Donny and Kym on their wardrobe malfunction tango. They show a bit of Mario Lopez dancing with Karina.

Derek and Joanna on Kimmel – pretty darn funny.

Of course, it will be Derek and Joanna heavy, what with their elimination so close to the end of the show. Or one would think, right? We’ll see if Donny loosens his grasp on all media. There was a lot of crap in last nights show – I’ll post all of it later. Heh.

E! News from last night when I was too tired to do anything with it:

Meaning Joanna and Derek’s run came to an end tonight, despite her second-place showing on the leaderboard and the obviously stunning figure she cut on the floor.

“It’s been such an amazing experience and I’ve grown as a person,” the 30-year-old model said after hearing the disappointing news. “Thank you to the judges. Thank you for giving me the opportunity. I had a great partner.”

So the incomparably polished Mya, fan favorite Donny Osmond and little-reality-star-that-could Kelly Osbourne will be dancing for bragging rights on next week’s two-part season finale.

Both Dmitry and Louis are in the finals for the first time, while Kym has been runner-up twice, with Joey Fatone and Warren Sapp.

Perhaps this year she’s half of the pair that’s going all the way to the top.

I certainly think she is.

The Orlando Sentinel:

The celebrity who had been the most consistent performer this season. Model Joanna Krupa is gone.

That means Mya, Donny Osmond and Kelly Osbourne will compete for that ugly mirrorball trophy next week. Mya, of course, is the best dancer left. Osmond and Osbourne are probably more popular. Can the best dancer win?

Krupa should have been in the finale. A Joanna vs. Mya finale would have been more exciting. But given the way the show has ejected models in past seasons, it’s surprising that Krupa made it this far. It’s a testament to her skill.

“Joanna, you’ve been, for me, the most consistent,” judge Len Goodman told her before the results were revealed.

“It’s been such an amazing experience,” Krupa said in her farewell. “Thank you to the judges. I’ve grown as a person. Thank you for giving me the opportunity. I had a great partner.”

The show broke tradition by having Krupa and partner Derek Hough dance a waltz to say farewell — and to remind viewers how great they were.

Excerpt from the LA Times - pretty much sums it up.

In the pre-taped segments, there was an amusing artsy-fartsy music video in which all four of the contestants acted out the pressures of being in the competition while lip-syncing a version of David Bowie’s “Under Pressure.” Between filming these segments and learning three dances, one wonders how they’ve had time in their lives for anything else. Donny’s freak-out was the most believable, but I enjoyed seeing Mya hurl a poor, defenseless stuffed animal off some rooftop, Kelly lay waste to a disco ball and Joanna rip the seams of a sequined garment — and I liked how the video ended with some dance shoes being burned in the foreground. “Apparently pressure doesn’t improve lip-syncing skills,” quipped Tom, “but there you go.”

I also liked the segment where the pros talked about how hard it was to come up with their own choreography week in and week out. Sure, it’s not like we learned anything new (news flash: Pros like dancing with other pros because they can really let loose!), but it was fun to see the camaraderie among the pro dancers and witness the priceless exchange between Cheryl and Maks, in which Cheryl, while in hold with Maks, confirmed, “You do stink!” and Maks simply responded, “I know.”

Also stinky was the fact that formidable dancer and competitor Joanna Krupa was let go from the competition, though that’s the way the Mirrorball rolls. So now we’re left with the Entertainer, the Wild Child and the Dance Machine. Who do you think has what it takes to win the “luxurious” Mirrorball trophy?

Ok! Magazine:

This season, Joanna Krupa proved that models have all the moves on Dancing with the Stars, but her time on the hit ABC reality show fell just short of the finale as she was eliminated on Tuesday night.

Joanna lit up season nine with consistently strong performances with partner Derek Hough including last week, when they broke boundaries with their memorable Paso Doble.

But, although she and Derek earned a score of 27 for each of their three dances on Monday night, good for second place — and judge Carrie Ann Inaba said she’d like to see her in next week’s finale — it was not to be.

She laughed that DWTS host Tom Bergeron brought her Playboy issue to rehearsal yesterday. And Derek, who had vowed not to look at Joanna’s sexy magazine spread until after their dance partnership was done, crowed, “I’m going to look at it now!” He laughed, “I’m going to get a glass of red wine, sit down [with it] — just kidding!”

But seriously, longtime pro dancer Derek said he loved some of the changes on DWTS this season, including the competition group mambo, but he candidly admitted starting with 16 couples was a “terrible idea.”

“Nobody wants to see that many couples dance! I’m sure that won’t be repeated [but] I could be wrong.”

AMEN brother!!

Jimmy Kimmel Show – very cute.

ABC Local Affiliate

This should be the last of it for Week 8. Maybe it’s just me, but it seems we aren’t getting as much media coverage this season as we have in seasons past. What we do get is overwhelmingly slanted towards Donny Osmond (although I imagine it evens out if you don’t count Entertainment Tonight).

Reality Chat!! I want Joanna’s outfit too. A little bit of “damning with faint praise” of Mya, if tone is anything to go by.

Aaron and Karina on The View. Aaron, there’s no crying in Ballroom!!

DWTS on E! with Special Correspondent Mark “cheesey” Ballas.

E! News – the final four, and more crying in the Ballroom.

Entertainment Tonight continues the relentless pimping of Donny Osmond. I like Donny WAY better than I like his sister, and she keeps reminding me how much I disliked her when she was on the show. At least on this particular episode they give Kelly a tiny moment of screen time.

ET again – how much stock do YOU think the Osmonds own?? I’m thinking a lot. They again give Kelly a bit of screen time.

Pap Henry is at it again – he gets some great stuff. Look closely to see Melissa Rycroft with Tony at the beginning. Tom Bergeron is *hilarious*. Corky Ballas needs a sedative as does Louis’ friend.

Say what you want about LaToya, but she’s actually doing a reasonably good job with these interviews – Access Hollywood

Oh, this is too bad – from People.com:

Julianne Hough and Chuck Wicks have decided to call it quits, a source tells PEOPLE. “This was mutual. They needed some time apart,” says the source.

Hough, 21, and Wicks, 30, both are still expected to attend the Country Music Association Awards on Wednesday – Wicks is covering the red carpet for Entertainment Tonight and Hough is a presenter.