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The “Shocking” Elimination!

One of the things that drives me absolutely crazy is the headlines related to DWTS at this point in the season – well, really, all times of the season. “Shocking Elimination!!!” Even sites dedicated to DWTS, who should know better. Um, peeps? Only if you don’t do math. This past week it was Joanna’s “shocking elimination” – geez, where have these people been?? Joanna up against:

  • Donny Osmond – former pop star whose massive fanbase aligns nearly perfectly with the DWTS voting population.
  • Kelly Osbourne – New America’s sweetheart. Face it – everyone loves an underdog, especially one with a CUTE dog.
  • Mya – Also well known, has been dancing her whole life and who is arguably the best technical dancer on the show, despite her issues connecting with Dmitry (even Mya acknowledges it, people – watch LKL).
  • At this point in the season, all the voters are focusing on four people. The vote is only divided four ways. Does that matter? Well, I guess it depends on how you look at it. It could matter when you have a relative unknown up against three famous (or notorious) people, two of them being accomplished performers. Oh, but “Joanna had high scores,” you might say. “She must really be unpopular or not well liked,” you might say, in order for her to be voted out when Donny was so far behind her in judges scores.

    I say BULL. It doesn’t matter what the judges scores are, unless there is an extreme difference (and I don’t mean 10 points)…because of the MATH. Here’s how the show supposedly works:

    Judges Scores:
    Mya = 87
    Joanna = 81
    Kelly = 78
    Donny = 72

    Add up the total points given = 318
    Now figure the percentage of total points each celeb got:
    Mya = 27.36
    Joanna = 25.47
    Kelly = 24.53
    Donny = 22.64

    As you can see, there is a relatively small difference between the scores; less than one percent difference between Joanna and Kelly, and only 1.88 percent between Joanna and Mya. Donny is only 2.83 percent behind Joanna! Keep in mind that he is DONNY OSMOND. Remember Marie versus Jennie Garth? Same situation. Same pro on the losing end. ;-)

    According to the rules of the show, the contestant’s share of the judges points is added to their percentage of the viewer votes. What that means is that that if Joanna receives 25 percent of the vote and Kelly and Donny receive 25.95 and 27.84 percent of the vote, respectively, Joanna goes home. Because the judges share is added to the voter share:

    Joanna 25.47+25=50.47
    Kelly24.53+25.95=50.48
    Donny22.64+27.84=50.48

    As you can see, a relatively minor difference in the vote can send Joanna home over Kelly or Donny. Because the contestant’s share of the viewer votes is never revealed, you can never be sure who is going to leave. There is no way to measure who is “popular” beyond anecdotal evidence. Go back and do the math on Aaron – was he really disliked, or was he just a little behind because he turned a few people off? Just because he was at the top of the leader board and went home doesn’t mean everyone hated him – not at all. It just doesn’t take much.

    Now, if there are any Mya/Dmitry fans out there saying “She can’t lose!! She’s so fabulous!!” Wrong – she absolutely CAN lose and it won’t be difficult, unless the judges REALLY go out on a limb and keep a good ten to fifteen points between Mya, and Donny/Kelly. Will they? History says that they won’t go radical on the scoring in the finale – unless Donny has another meltdown, there won’t be a 16 point difference between them, or a ten point difference between Mya and Kelly. But, for the sake of argument, let’s say that the judges break with tradition (and stop covering their own butts for fear of scoring the winner really low) and keep the spread as it was last week. I’m going to assume that the “four dances” rumor is accurate. That means the scores would be as follows:

    Judges Scores (total possible is 120):
    Mya = 118
    Kelly = 108
    Donny = 102

    Add up the total points given = 328
    Now figure the percentage of total points each celeb got:
    Mya = 35.98
    Kelly = 32.93
    Donny = 31.1

    Again, the difference between Donny and Mya is ONLY 4.88 percent, and the difference between Kelly and Mya is only 3.07 percent.

    So, my questions are two fold:

    Can Donny garner 4.89 percent MORE than Mya in terms of viewer votes??
    AND
    Can Kelly garner 3.08 percent more than Mya in terms of viewer votes??

    Keep in mind that I’m *assuming* that the spread will be similar. What if it’s not?? Personally, based purely on math and anecdotal evidence, I think that Donny can beat Mya handily. The real question is – can Kelly beat Mya? I would NOT consider that “shocking”.

    However, since we have no clue about how the votes have been stacking up all along it’s very difficult to be sure. And no, that whole “in jeopardy” thing doesn’t count for a hill of beans – it’s all crap and manipulation. Unless ole Tom says, “The bottom two are…” then you don’t really know. They freely use “jeopardy” as a manipulation/drama tool. I certainly believe that they can’t rig who goes and who wins, but I do believe they can pretend someone is in a fake bottom two – no law against it.  Another thing that ALWAYS amuses me is that fans of a given couple always forget that when someone is voted out, often the people who voted for them vote for someone else – if ya go around trashing the voted out couple and rejoicing their being booted…well, odds are good that their fans won’t vote for YOUR favorite. And, as I’ve shown, every vote counts.  Mya and Donny fans should be careful – they could see a bunch of Joanna and Aaron fans (among others) voting for KELLY. :-)  Think 3.08 percent. :-)

    So, you’ve heard the complaints about all three of these finalists, and you have an idea of their fanbases. Who has the math working for them??  And who will have the killer freestyle – some people say that means EVERYTHING.

    **I used excel to do the math and I rounded – let me know if you see a math error.

    November 20, 2009 I Written By

    I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

    DWTS Season 9, Week 9 – Miscellaneous Media

    Access Hollywood with Kelly and her parents, and Derek and Joanna:

    Derek and Joanna on The View:

    Entertainment Tonight continues it’s love affair with Donny Osmond:

    Extra from Tuesday, November 17 – Julianne at the Twilight premiere (she’s a HUGE fan according to Derek and she did tweet a picture of her with Rob Pattinson the other night – I officially hate her. :-)), plus Donny and Kym on their wardrobe malfunction tango. They show a bit of Mario Lopez dancing with Karina.

    Derek and Joanna on Kimmel – pretty darn funny.

    November 19, 2009 I Written By

    I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

    DWTS Season 9, Week 9 – Media

    Of course, it will be Derek and Joanna heavy, what with their elimination so close to the end of the show. Or one would think, right? We’ll see if Donny loosens his grasp on all media. :-) There was a lot of crap in last nights show – I’ll post all of it later. Heh.

    E! News from last night when I was too tired to do anything with it:

    Meaning Joanna and Derek’s run came to an end tonight, despite her second-place showing on the leaderboard and the obviously stunning figure she cut on the floor.

    “It’s been such an amazing experience and I’ve grown as a person,” the 30-year-old model said after hearing the disappointing news. “Thank you to the judges. Thank you for giving me the opportunity. I had a great partner.”

    So the incomparably polished Mya, fan favorite Donny Osmond and little-reality-star-that-could Kelly Osbourne will be dancing for bragging rights on next week’s two-part season finale.

    Both Dmitry and Louis are in the finals for the first time, while Kym has been runner-up twice, with Joey Fatone and Warren Sapp.

    Perhaps this year she’s half of the pair that’s going all the way to the top.

    I certainly think she is. :-)

    293_krupa_hough_lr_111709

    The Orlando Sentinel:

    The celebrity who had been the most consistent performer this season. Model Joanna Krupa is gone.

    That means Mya, Donny Osmond and Kelly Osbourne will compete for that ugly mirrorball trophy next week. Mya, of course, is the best dancer left. Osmond and Osbourne are probably more popular. Can the best dancer win?

    Krupa should have been in the finale. A Joanna vs. Mya finale would have been more exciting. But given the way the show has ejected models in past seasons, it’s surprising that Krupa made it this far. It’s a testament to her skill.

    “Joanna, you’ve been, for me, the most consistent,” judge Len Goodman told her before the results were revealed.

    “It’s been such an amazing experience,” Krupa said in her farewell. “Thank you to the judges. I’ve grown as a person. Thank you for giving me the opportunity. I had a great partner.”

    The show broke tradition by having Krupa and partner Derek Hough dance a waltz to say farewell — and to remind viewers how great they were.

    Excerpt from the LA Times - pretty much sums it up. :-)

    In the pre-taped segments, there was an amusing artsy-fartsy music video in which all four of the contestants acted out the pressures of being in the competition while lip-syncing a version of David Bowie’s “Under Pressure.” Between filming these segments and learning three dances, one wonders how they’ve had time in their lives for anything else. Donny’s freak-out was the most believable, but I enjoyed seeing Mya hurl a poor, defenseless stuffed animal off some rooftop, Kelly lay waste to a disco ball and Joanna rip the seams of a sequined garment — and I liked how the video ended with some dance shoes being burned in the foreground. “Apparently pressure doesn’t improve lip-syncing skills,” quipped Tom, “but there you go.”

    I also liked the segment where the pros talked about how hard it was to come up with their own choreography week in and week out. Sure, it’s not like we learned anything new (news flash: Pros like dancing with other pros because they can really let loose!), but it was fun to see the camaraderie among the pro dancers and witness the priceless exchange between Cheryl and Maks, in which Cheryl, while in hold with Maks, confirmed, “You do stink!” and Maks simply responded, “I know.”

    Also stinky was the fact that formidable dancer and competitor Joanna Krupa was let go from the competition, though that’s the way the Mirrorball rolls. So now we’re left with the Entertainer, the Wild Child and the Dance Machine. Who do you think has what it takes to win the “luxurious” Mirrorball trophy?

    Ok! Magazine:

    This season, Joanna Krupa proved that models have all the moves on Dancing with the Stars, but her time on the hit ABC reality show fell just short of the finale as she was eliminated on Tuesday night.

    Joanna lit up season nine with consistently strong performances with partner Derek Hough including last week, when they broke boundaries with their memorable Paso Doble.

    But, although she and Derek earned a score of 27 for each of their three dances on Monday night, good for second place — and judge Carrie Ann Inaba said she’d like to see her in next week’s finale — it was not to be.

    She laughed that DWTS host Tom Bergeron brought her Playboy issue to rehearsal yesterday. And Derek, who had vowed not to look at Joanna’s sexy magazine spread until after their dance partnership was done, crowed, “I’m going to look at it now!” He laughed, “I’m going to get a glass of red wine, sit down [with it] — just kidding!”

    But seriously, longtime pro dancer Derek said he loved some of the changes on DWTS this season, including the competition group mambo, but he candidly admitted starting with 16 couples was a “terrible idea.”

    “Nobody wants to see that many couples dance! I’m sure that won’t be repeated [but] I could be wrong.”

    AMEN brother!! :-)

    Jimmy Kimmel Show – very cute. :-)

    ABC Local Affiliate

    November 18, 2009 I Written By

    I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

    Vote for the Dancing with the Stars Season 9 Winner

    It’s that time again. We’re down to the final 3 stars on Dancing with the Stars. So, let’s get your vote on. I’m going to put up 2 polls. One poll will be for you to vote for who you THINK will be the winner of Dancing with the Stars season 9. The second poll will be for you to vote for who you WANT to be the winner of Dancing with the Stars season 9. So far we’ve been pretty good at predicting the past winners of Dancing with the Stars. Let’s keep it up.

    First what you think…


    Now for your wants…

    November 17, 2009 I Written By

    Better known as Charlie.

    Dancing with the Stars Music – Alicia Keys, Leona Lewis and The Bee Gees

    Time again for the list of music from the special guests on Dancing with the Stars.

    Alicia Keys sang “Try Sleeping with a Broken Heart” Alicia Keys - Try Sleeping With a Broken Heart - Single - Try Sleeping With a Broken Heart with the Alicia Keys’s dancers
    Leona Lewis sang “Happy” Leona Lewis - Echo - Happy with the Leona Lewis’ dancers
    The Bee Gees sang “You Should Be Dancing” Bee Gees - Saturday Night Fever (The Original Movie Soundtrack) [Remastered] - You Should Be Dancing with Melissa Rycroft, Tony Dovolani, Chelsie Hightower, Cheryl Burke, and Artem Chigvinsev dancing

    Also, looks like yesterday we had a real hit with the song Joanna and Derek danced a Viennese Waltz to: “Hallelujah” Leonard Cohen - The Essential Leonard Cohen - Hallelujah—Leonard Cohen. People absolutely love that song (and so they should). I’ll be posting a list of the top music from Dancing with the Stars soon and that one should be on the list.

    On a side note, I was sad to see Derek and Joanna get sent home. Not that I was all that surprised. Joanna has a much smaller fan base than the others. What’s most disappointing about it for me is that Derek creates the most incredible freestyle dances. That will be a tremendous loss for the finale. The good part is that at the finale we get to see all of the dancers back on the show. With 16 dancers, that’s going to be a LOT of dances.

    I Written By

    Better known as Charlie.

    DWTS Season 9, Week 9 – Interviews and Stuff

    ;-) Got tired of the same names for these posts. I just wanna say, no matter who goes tonight, everyone is a winner. Tremendous accomplishment making it to the final four out of 16 couples, particularly for Joanna and Kelly. All four couples left should be proud. I’m happy with this final four, no matter who leaves tonight.

    Derek and Joanna on the Ryan Seacrest Show.

    DWTS Week 9 on Radar Online <---click

    All four couples on Access Hollywood

    This dude/dudette from the LA Times is kinda reading my mind in spots here:

    Topping the leader board and blazing a glittery trail to the finish were Mya and Dmitry Chaplin. Earlier in the competition it seemed natural front-runner Mya could do no right by the judges. Now it appears that the Washington D.C./Maryland-born-and-raised singer and former tap dancer can do no wrong. Wouldn’t it be funny if that’s what the judges/producers had in mind all along – to bring Mya down to Earth so that she wouldn’t dominate the entire season, and then unleash her like a sparkle-worthy superstar on the ballroom floor so she can soar, chiffon wisps and all, in time for the finals?

    Entertainment Tonight (Marie Osmond Warning ;-) )

    I Written By

    I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

    Vote for the Final 3 Couples on Dancing with the Stars 2009

    It’s time to start voting for the 3 couples that you think will be in the Dancing with the Stars finale. Yes, this Dancing with the Stars poll is going to be a little different. You can vote for up to 3 people. Ideally you’d vote for the 3 that you think will make it to the finale of Dancing with the Stars 2009. However, you can only vote for 3. Tomorrow, we’ll post a new poll where you can vote on the winner of Dancing with the Stars 2009.

    November 16, 2009 I Written By

    Better known as Charlie.

    Music List from Dancing with the Stars Week 9

    Wow, can you believe we’re down to the final 4? This is just amazing. This season went pretty quick for me. Sad to think that we’re so close to the end. Anyway, I’ll be posting a poll to vote who will be in the final 3 so don’t forget to vote for it. Also, you can check back at the previous weeks DWTS music as well.

    Now, on to the music for Dancing with the Stars Week 9:
    Donny and Kym danced a Tango to the song “Black & Gold” Sam Sparro - Sam Sparro (Bonus Track Version) - Black & Gold—Sam Sparro
    Donny and Kym danced a Samba to the song “One Bad Apple” The Osmonds - 20th Century Masters - The Millennium Collection: The Best of the Osmonds - One Bad Apple—The Osmonds
    Donny and Kym danced a Jitterbug to the song “Jump Shout Boogie” Barry Manilow - The Essential Barry Manilow - Jump Shout Boogie—Barry Manilow
    Joanna and Derek danced a Viennese Waltz to the song “Hallelujah” Leonard Cohen - The Essential Leonard Cohen - Hallelujah—Leonard Cohen
    Joanna and Derek danced a Cha-Cha-Cha to the song “Can’t Get You out of My Head” Kylie Minogue - Fever - Can't Get You out of My Head—Kylie Minogue
    Joanna and Derek danced a Salsa to the song “La Luz Del Ritmo” Los Fabulosos Cadillacs - La Luz del Ritmo - La Luz del Ritmo—Los Fabulosos Cadillacs
    Kelly and Louis danced a Rumba to the song “Angels” Robbie Williams - The Ego Has Landed - Angels—Robbie Williams
    Kelly and Louis danced a Quickstep to the song “99 Red Balloons” Nena - 99 Luftballons - 99 Red Balloons—Nena
    Kelly and Louis danced a Cha-Cha-Cha to the song “Girls Just Want to Have Fun” Cyndi Lauper - She's So Unusual (Remastered) - Girls Just Want to Have Fun—Cyndi Lauper
    Mya and Dmitry danced a Waltz to the song “Amore e Musica” Russell Watson - The Classical Album 2005 - Amore e Musica—Russell Watson
    Mya and Dmitry danced a Salsa to the song “La Isla Bonita” Madonna - True Blue - La Isla Bonita—Madonna
    Mya and Dmitry danced a Cha-Cha-Cha to the song “Fire Burning” Sean Kingston - Tomorrow - Fire Burning—Sean Kingston

    I Written By

    Better known as Charlie.

    The Last of the Media for DWTS Seaon 9, Week 8

    This should be the last of it for Week 8. Maybe it’s just me, but it seems we aren’t getting as much media coverage this season as we have in seasons past. What we do get is overwhelmingly slanted towards Donny Osmond (although I imagine it evens out if you don’t count Entertainment Tonight).

    Reality Chat!! I want Joanna’s outfit too. A little bit of “damning with faint praise” of Mya, if tone is anything to go by.

    Aaron and Karina on The View. Aaron, there’s no crying in Ballroom!! ;-)

    DWTS on E! with Special Correspondent Mark “cheesey” Ballas. :-)

    E! News – the final four, and more crying in the Ballroom. :-)

    Entertainment Tonight continues the relentless pimping of Donny Osmond. I like Donny WAY better than I like his sister, and she keeps reminding me how much I disliked her when she was on the show. At least on this particular episode they give Kelly a tiny moment of screen time.

    ET again – how much stock do YOU think the Osmonds own?? I’m thinking a lot. They again give Kelly a bit of screen time.

    November 15, 2009 I Written By

    I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

    Aaron Carter Sent Home on DWTS

    I was slightly disappointed that Aaron was sent home last night.  I think out of all the contestants he had the most up and down experience going from amazing in the first 2 weeks and then getting overly cocky and hard to watch and then back to brilliant and passionate dancing.  I had a feeling Aaron was going to be sent home over Kelly but let’s take a look at his best dances and hottest outfits :)

    BEST DANCES
    Week 1: Cha-Cha
    Little Aaron Carter can dance! This was an amazing premier dance for Aaron and Karina! I loved that you could tell he was working so hard to be a good dancer but also an amazing partner for Karina. Every time he touched her I could tell he was into it!

    Week 2: Viennese Waltz
    I loved the Kermit the Frog and Miss Piggy story line here!

    Week 5: Argentine Tango
    He feel of the wagon during weeks 3 and 4 but came back with his Robert Patterson vibe in the Argentine Tango! This dance was so sexy and confident on his end and he had amazing partnering for Karina!

    Week 6: Waltz
    This was Aaron’s most mature dance of the season! Absolutely loved it :)

    Week 7: Jive
    BEST DANCE!!!! This dance was so him…fast, energetic, and so much fun! His foot work was off the charts phenomenal!

    HOTTEST COSTUMES

    I loved his Argentine Tango costume…Very Patterson inspired and he looked like man :)
    DWTS

    I thought his Kermit the Frog outfit was adorable!  He really doesn’t have a color that doesn’t look amazing on him!  But that could be the spray tan!

    Normally I would not like an outfit like this one but something about it is very suiting for him.  And how could you not love Karina in this dress :)

    Not the picture I was looking for…but who doesn’t love a guy in all white :)

    November 11, 2009 I Written By