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Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 4 Pre-Predictions

Ok… just to get this out of the way… predictions are shot for Week 4. Since there are only four dances that have been on the show before (Charleston, Mambo, Jitterbug and Bolero) while the rest have either been a group dance (Rock N Roll, Disco) or were featured in the Results show by other dance groups (Bollywood, Contemporary, Hip Hop, Broadway)… there is no way I can truly predict scores… but I sure as hell will try. :) Who could have predicted what the dance pool was going to include? I thought it would re-introduce dances that just didn’t have some exposure on the show as I posted last week.

So how will the scores stack up with the data that I have available?

See what I mean by this week’s predictions being a crap shoot? I mean seriously! The only dances that have any scores that I could work off of are highlighted in yellow and are the closest to “traditional” ballroom dances. While the ones in orange are the dances that are absolutely not your traditional ballroom dances. Those that are left have actually been featured on the show in group routines for the season cast.

What I did find to be interesting is that for those that were given the traditional dances that overlapped with my dance pool… I had actually suggested them to have:
Emmitt Smith: suggested either Bolero, West Coast Swing or Two Step
Shawn Johnson: suggested either the Mambo or Two Step

Before I move on… Warning: extra long, YouTube video link heavy post to follow. Also Lori added additional commentary wherever she is able in regards to Week 4′s dances / couples. Also there is a little bit of a conversation going on in the comments in the DWTS Season 15 Stats Class Week 4′s Challenge. Read more..

October 11, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 Stats Class – Week 4′s Challenge

Since this post would be moot point come the Results show tonight I figured I would help give an idea of various dances and what not that are available from throughout the seasons:

Looking at the above breakdown there are eight dances that had minimal exposure throughout the series, but do I define “seldom used dances”? Well they are those dances that we have only seen once in a small handful of seasons. When looking at the number counts there are eight dances that were danced less than 25 times… actually the most from this group would be 11. Here are those dances and when they were featured:
Season 7 Week 5
Hustle, Jitterbug and West Coast Swing

Season 8 Week 4
Lindy Hop

Season 9 Week 4
Bolero, Charleston, Lambada and Two-Step

So now let’s look at how the dances scores were averaged and compared to one another:

Let us also look at the dances that are not in the Top Ten highest scoring dances and see where all the other dances lie:


Those dances highlighted in “yellow” are those that not only have had minimal exposure on the show, but also scored rather low in the grand scheme of things. Those dances that are highlighted in “pink” are those that have had some exposure on the show but still scored low. If anything… if I was helping produce the show I would probably use the above dances (and maybe include other dances that have had minimal exposure on the show like the Charleston, Jitterbug, Lambada, and Hustle) as the pool of dances to be used for the upcoming week.

Looking through all the dances that have been featured on the show and have had some exposure I realized some interesting things. There were several dances that were introduced into the show in the midway point of the series and have been staples ever since (Argentine Tango, Viennese Waltz), while there were other dances that were “taking a break” as it were but then have been staples since them (Salsa, Tango, Waltz).

The Mambo was only featured for a handful of seasons in the middle of the series: Seasons 3 thru 7.

So knowing all this… which dances did I pull the below preferences from? Well the easiest would be the following: Bolero, Lindy Hop, Two-Step and West Coast Swing. These four dances not only got the least amount of exposure on the show but also had average low scores during their short run on the series.

The Mambo has been on the show for only five seasons and was scored low frequently so I would toss that dance into the mix.

Finally what about the other four? Aka the Charleston, Hustle, Jitterbug, and Lambada? It is hard to say since they ranked high on the scoring table. I tended to shy away from these dances in my quick analysis below, but feel free to include these in your comments if you feel inclined that you’d like to see a particular celebrity dance these dances.

So my final pool would be from Bolero, Lindy Hop, Two-Step, West Coast Swing and Mambo.

But before we start figuring out what dances would provide a challenge to each of the dancers… let’s look at who has already attempted any of the above dances?

So in regards to dances: Shawn, Melissa and Gilles all have a little bit of an edge by having done the Lindy Hop in their original season, but the Lindy Hop had an average score that is in the higher half. Personally, if I were to choose dances that I would like to see next week they would include the Bolero, West Coast Swing and Lindy Hop.

So knowing the above… what dances could possibly challenge the individual dancers? (Warning very long post to follow)
Read more..

October 9, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 Stats Class: Week 1′s Elimination – Pamela Anderson

The first eliminated couple of the season: Pamela Anderson and Tristan MacManus

But really was this a surprise? Taking a look at some of the past data and

Back in June, we asked you the reader to choose your favorite celebrities across the seasons and I had recently posted the results of the popularity polls of celebrities taken from your favorites. On this list it did not appear that Pamela was in the Top 20 of the female celebrities… so already just from those summer polls alone there were signs that Pamela probably wouldn’t have the popularity vote by her side.

She was given the lowest score of the night on Monday… and even my elimination predictions have her not just towards the bottom of the list… but in last place as well. The Week 1 Score Predictions had her scored second the last ranking just above Kelly Monaco and Valentin Chmerkovskiy (who scored far higher on Monday night).

So yeah, she didn’t really have a lot going for her here no matter how you look at it.

So enough with what happened during Week 1… let’s look back with her time prior to Season 15. How did she fare and did she even stand a chance? Well hard to say. So what I did was go back in time and looked at her actual scores during her time on Season 10 and compared it with how her score predictions would have looked prior to Season 10. Then for the hell of it I also added the scores predicted for Season 15 using the same dances from Season 10… and let’s say the results were fascinating…

First the table:

Looking at the numbers alone she was all over the spectrum. There were some dances she scored higher than… while others she scores below… and still others right on par. But if we were to take the average score from the predicted scores of Season 10 vs the actual scores…
Season 10 Average Prediction: 21.708
Season 10 Average Actual: 22.286

Almost a whole half-point difference. Which sometimes doesn’t seem like a lot, but in the world of stats and mathematics is a hell of a whole lot.

So how does this look like on a graph?

Her actual scores from Season 10 appear to be all over the spectrum when compared to the Season 10 predicted scores… while when compared with the Season 15 predictions are a little more in line…

Interesting.

Now I wouldn’t go so far as to say whether she was over or under scores in any capacity mainly because I have to rewatch the episodes to know that… but I am kind of curious to see how the other celebrities stack up in hindsight when comparing their actual scores with the various predictions.

September 27, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Comparing the Cast to the Polls (from June)

Back in early-June I had a couple of polls up that asked who your favorite male and female stars were

Since the first week just completed I figured we take a look back and see how many of your favorites are actually in the cast of Season 15…

First off let’s look at the guys:


Well only four of the six male celebrities were some of your favorites from those early polls. Emmitt Smith and Helio Castroneves never even made this Top 12.

Now for the gals:


Interesting, of the seven women that is in the Season 15 cast, two were not in the original polls: Pamela Anderson and Bristol Palin.

What does this mean?

Well I was curious and as thus decided to cross reference with my prediction analysis of who would be eliminated when and I came with a few interesting conclusions. Below is a cross-reference table between the scores prediction post for Week 1 and the elimination predictions:

CELEBRITY
SCORE PREDICTION PLACEMENT
ELIMINATION PREDICTION PLACEMENT
Emmitt
11th
3rd
Bristol
10th
6th
Helio
6th
11th
Pamela
12th
13th

For some reason I have a sneaky suspicion that a few of these stars are being set up as elimination fodder in the guise of being an “All-Star”. Yeah, I know… TPTB are always trying to set up storylines in an effort to propel others…

Right now, Pamela was the most obvious as elimination fodder…. if the first four eliminations include at least two of the above… if not three… well let’s say I wouldn’t be surprised.

September 26, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 10 Scorecard

Whelp… the last scorecard for Season 14… I’m going to skip to the niceties and just go straight to the table of score differentiation:

Am I the only one that is mildly entertained that William has the largest point difference between his predicted scores and actual scores… with Katherine a point beneath that. While in the meantime, Donald is actually a lot closer being just one point off from the past? When you add the scores from Tuesday night’s show into the table Donald has the smallest point difference of the final three…

So let’s look at William’s scoring progression:

Although there are times over the season that William appears to score similar to what was originally predicted or even below, for the most part he has scored a few points over the predicted score. So let’s look at everyone else.

Read more..

May 23, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 9 Scorecard

Semi-finals week… aka Week 9, by now you should know who is going home… but before we begin let’s look at the scoring breakdown from Monday night’s show.

Yeeeeaaaah, so looking at the actual to predicted scores, Katherine/Mark has the smallest point difference. Whileas with the other three couples, there is a point difference of either 4 or 5 with the largest point difference being Maria/Derek with 5 points.

Looking at this upfront, it would appear that Katherine would be going home, since she is closest to the predicted score, but as we have seen in some of the previous weeks, the couple with the largest point difference could also be going home…

Let’s look at Maria’s scoring progression over the past nine weeks:

Read more..

May 16, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 8 Scorecard

Since Week 8 is a double elimination week, I felt that it would probably benefit everyone if I went ahead and did a scorecard for this week and probably will continue to do so for the last two weeks of the season thereafter.

So to start, let’s look at how the actual scores on the show compared with those that were predicted:

Before we start, the very last column is just the summation of the differences between the two dances that each couple has to dance.

Read more..

May 9, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Weeks 4 thru 7 Scorecard

So here we are… we are now officially through “two-thirds” of the season and I’ve been updating and cleaning up my spreadsheet, so that way I could create graphs for you to see how the predicted scores compared with the actual scores of the celebrities that have left us since Week 4 (eventually I’ll update the previous scorecard to include graphs for the first few weeks of the season).

In case you have forgotten from the last time, the initials “P – A – D” are simply:
- Predicted: this is the original calculated predicted scores
- Actual: this is the score that the celeb/pro pairing actually received on the show
- Difference: is the point difference between the predicted and actual scores

So if you would recall from Week 4:

I mentioned that there was a 2 point difference with some scores being close/spot on versus scores that were way off. For three weeks Katherine/Mark was getting the largest score difference (5 – 5 – 6) and now they have virtually none.

So far Gavin seems the most steady to history with another zero (0) point difference week.

There also seems to be a shift happening with the largest point difference:
- Roshon/Chelsie: 5 points
- Donald/Peta: 4 points

Did this affect standings of the couples that were in danger on Week 4? Well it depends on how you look at it. Roshon/Chelsie had a massive point difference and they were in the Bottom Two. While Sherri/Val had the average point difference of two and they were sent packing.

Speaking of Sherri, let’s look at how her actual scores on the show compared with the predicted scores over the four weeks she was on the show:

Read more..

May 2, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Weeks 1 thru 4 Scorecard

So I’ve been asked a few times if I would do a scorecard of my predictions up to this point since about a third of the season has gone by. I figured: “Why not?” It would be interesting to see just how off the calculated predictions are.

To get started if you noticed there are the initials “P – A – D” this is simply: “Predicted – Actual – Difference”
- Predicted: this is the original calculated predicted scores
- Actual: this is the score that the celeb/pro pairing actually received on the show
- Difference: is the point difference between the predicted and actual scores

So lets look at Week 1:

Read more..

April 11, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)