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Dancing with the Stars Season 15 Stats Class: Week 6′s Elimination – Sabrina Bryan

Ok… I am not happy… I mean Sabrina was actually growing and doing better and better. She was actually opening up and she has such an engaging personality it is like, “what the hell?” But then again TPTB probably have so much invested in Gilles and Kelly that Sabrina got the short end of the stick…

Ah well… what can you do? I know it has been a while since I did one of these… but in all honesty it is getting towards that point in the season where the comparison statistics may actually look decent. Don’t believe me? Let’s look at the chart where it compares the predicted scores with the actuals between Sabrina’s original Season 5 and the current Season 15:


Confused? Yeah I was too… but before I break the above down even further… let’s look at the data between Season 5 and Season 15:


There… now that you have the data let’s go back to the charts:
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November 1, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 4 Pre-Predictions

Ok… just to get this out of the way… predictions are shot for Week 4. Since there are only four dances that have been on the show before (Charleston, Mambo, Jitterbug and Bolero) while the rest have either been a group dance (Rock N Roll, Disco) or were featured in the Results show by other dance groups (Bollywood, Contemporary, Hip Hop, Broadway)… there is no way I can truly predict scores… but I sure as hell will try. :) Who could have predicted what the dance pool was going to include? I thought it would re-introduce dances that just didn’t have some exposure on the show as I posted last week.

So how will the scores stack up with the data that I have available?

See what I mean by this week’s predictions being a crap shoot? I mean seriously! The only dances that have any scores that I could work off of are highlighted in yellow and are the closest to “traditional” ballroom dances. While the ones in orange are the dances that are absolutely not your traditional ballroom dances. Those that are left have actually been featured on the show in group routines for the season cast.

What I did find to be interesting is that for those that were given the traditional dances that overlapped with my dance pool… I had actually suggested them to have:
Emmitt Smith: suggested either Bolero, West Coast Swing or Two Step
Shawn Johnson: suggested either the Mambo or Two Step

Before I move on… Warning: extra long, YouTube video link heavy post to follow. Also Lori added additional commentary wherever she is able in regards to Week 4′s dances / couples. Also there is a little bit of a conversation going on in the comments in the DWTS Season 15 Stats Class Week 4′s Challenge. Read more..

October 11, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 Stats Class – Week 4′s Challenge

Since this post would be moot point come the Results show tonight I figured I would help give an idea of various dances and what not that are available from throughout the seasons:

Looking at the above breakdown there are eight dances that had minimal exposure throughout the series, but do I define “seldom used dances”? Well they are those dances that we have only seen once in a small handful of seasons. When looking at the number counts there are eight dances that were danced less than 25 times… actually the most from this group would be 11. Here are those dances and when they were featured:
Season 7 Week 5
Hustle, Jitterbug and West Coast Swing

Season 8 Week 4
Lindy Hop

Season 9 Week 4
Bolero, Charleston, Lambada and Two-Step

So now let’s look at how the dances scores were averaged and compared to one another:

Let us also look at the dances that are not in the Top Ten highest scoring dances and see where all the other dances lie:


Those dances highlighted in “yellow” are those that not only have had minimal exposure on the show, but also scored rather low in the grand scheme of things. Those dances that are highlighted in “pink” are those that have had some exposure on the show but still scored low. If anything… if I was helping produce the show I would probably use the above dances (and maybe include other dances that have had minimal exposure on the show like the Charleston, Jitterbug, Lambada, and Hustle) as the pool of dances to be used for the upcoming week.

Looking through all the dances that have been featured on the show and have had some exposure I realized some interesting things. There were several dances that were introduced into the show in the midway point of the series and have been staples ever since (Argentine Tango, Viennese Waltz), while there were other dances that were “taking a break” as it were but then have been staples since them (Salsa, Tango, Waltz).

The Mambo was only featured for a handful of seasons in the middle of the series: Seasons 3 thru 7.

So knowing all this… which dances did I pull the below preferences from? Well the easiest would be the following: Bolero, Lindy Hop, Two-Step and West Coast Swing. These four dances not only got the least amount of exposure on the show but also had average low scores during their short run on the series.

The Mambo has been on the show for only five seasons and was scored low frequently so I would toss that dance into the mix.

Finally what about the other four? Aka the Charleston, Hustle, Jitterbug, and Lambada? It is hard to say since they ranked high on the scoring table. I tended to shy away from these dances in my quick analysis below, but feel free to include these in your comments if you feel inclined that you’d like to see a particular celebrity dance these dances.

So my final pool would be from Bolero, Lindy Hop, Two-Step, West Coast Swing and Mambo.

But before we start figuring out what dances would provide a challenge to each of the dancers… let’s look at who has already attempted any of the above dances?

So in regards to dances: Shawn, Melissa and Gilles all have a little bit of an edge by having done the Lindy Hop in their original season, but the Lindy Hop had an average score that is in the higher half. Personally, if I were to choose dances that I would like to see next week they would include the Bolero, West Coast Swing and Lindy Hop.

So knowing the above… what dances could possibly challenge the individual dancers? (Warning very long post to follow)
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October 9, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 Stats Class: Week 1′s Elimination – Pamela Anderson

The first eliminated couple of the season: Pamela Anderson and Tristan MacManus

But really was this a surprise? Taking a look at some of the past data and

Back in June, we asked you the reader to choose your favorite celebrities across the seasons and I had recently posted the results of the popularity polls of celebrities taken from your favorites. On this list it did not appear that Pamela was in the Top 20 of the female celebrities… so already just from those summer polls alone there were signs that Pamela probably wouldn’t have the popularity vote by her side.

She was given the lowest score of the night on Monday… and even my elimination predictions have her not just towards the bottom of the list… but in last place as well. The Week 1 Score Predictions had her scored second the last ranking just above Kelly Monaco and Valentin Chmerkovskiy (who scored far higher on Monday night).

So yeah, she didn’t really have a lot going for her here no matter how you look at it.

So enough with what happened during Week 1… let’s look back with her time prior to Season 15. How did she fare and did she even stand a chance? Well hard to say. So what I did was go back in time and looked at her actual scores during her time on Season 10 and compared it with how her score predictions would have looked prior to Season 10. Then for the hell of it I also added the scores predicted for Season 15 using the same dances from Season 10… and let’s say the results were fascinating…

First the table:

Looking at the numbers alone she was all over the spectrum. There were some dances she scored higher than… while others she scores below… and still others right on par. But if we were to take the average score from the predicted scores of Season 10 vs the actual scores…
Season 10 Average Prediction: 21.708
Season 10 Average Actual: 22.286

Almost a whole half-point difference. Which sometimes doesn’t seem like a lot, but in the world of stats and mathematics is a hell of a whole lot.

So how does this look like on a graph?

Her actual scores from Season 10 appear to be all over the spectrum when compared to the Season 10 predicted scores… while when compared with the Season 15 predictions are a little more in line…

Interesting.

Now I wouldn’t go so far as to say whether she was over or under scores in any capacity mainly because I have to rewatch the episodes to know that… but I am kind of curious to see how the other celebrities stack up in hindsight when comparing their actual scores with the various predictions.

September 27, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Comparing the Cast to the Polls (from June)

Back in early-June I had a couple of polls up that asked who your favorite male and female stars were

Since the first week just completed I figured we take a look back and see how many of your favorites are actually in the cast of Season 15…

First off let’s look at the guys:


Well only four of the six male celebrities were some of your favorites from those early polls. Emmitt Smith and Helio Castroneves never even made this Top 12.

Now for the gals:


Interesting, of the seven women that is in the Season 15 cast, two were not in the original polls: Pamela Anderson and Bristol Palin.

What does this mean?

Well I was curious and as thus decided to cross reference with my prediction analysis of who would be eliminated when and I came with a few interesting conclusions. Below is a cross-reference table between the scores prediction post for Week 1 and the elimination predictions:

CELEBRITY
SCORE PREDICTION PLACEMENT
ELIMINATION PREDICTION PLACEMENT
Emmitt
11th
3rd
Bristol
10th
6th
Helio
6th
11th
Pamela
12th
13th

For some reason I have a sneaky suspicion that a few of these stars are being set up as elimination fodder in the guise of being an “All-Star”. Yeah, I know… TPTB are always trying to set up storylines in an effort to propel others…

Right now, Pamela was the most obvious as elimination fodder…. if the first four eliminations include at least two of the above… if not three… well let’s say I wouldn’t be surprised.

September 26, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

How Did Your Early Predictions For DWTS Season 13 Stack Up With The Results?

1.Forecasting the frontrunners. She predicts that J.R. Martinez will walk away with the Mirror Ball trophy this season, with Ricki Lake and Rob Kardashian not far behind.

The above quote was taken from Fitness Magazine from an interview with Anna. She made that winning prediction for Season 13 in October. As you can see she ended up being dead on with it. This got me thinking about our Dancing With The Stars early prediction posts before Season 13 started. Do you remember how you ranked the contestants before they started dancing and were you wrong, right, or close?

Some of you posted your thoughts in Marianya’s Prediction Stat Post while some posted their predictions in Courtney’s Part One and Part Two Preliminary Power Ranking posts. As you can see, Courtney and Marianya were pretty close for how the competition turned out. What’s interesting is Marianya was probably the only one from almost all of us who predicted Rob to do so well….and what’s more Marianya put him as high as 3rd place!

Heidi ended up being amazingly psychic as always when she predicted Kristin to “pull an Audrina” by exiting the competition early in Marianya’s Post. She predicted the same with Chynna. Heidi also predicted J.R. to win in her Part 2 Ringers Post.

Almost all of us chose Rob and Nancy to finish last. The majority felt pretty negative on those two. To our pleasant surprise, we ended up loving them. Rob and Nancy ended up showing other sides to themselves that we didn’t know about and staying in the competition more than many of us forecasted.

Anyway, take a look back at the links above if interested. It’s fun to see how close or far we came from the results and what we (the bloggers and fans) wrote. My early first prediction for the top five were David, JR, Ricki, Elisabetta, and Kristin…and well, we all know how that turned out. LOL!!

November 25, 2011 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

DWTS Season 13 Stats – Pre Season Eliminations Predictions (Now With Pros!)

UPDATE: After a little more research, I will agree that Elisabetta’s primary occupation is as an actress as opposed to model… I have adjusted her ranks (with and without pro) to reflect this… note how this changes the other rankings as well.

YAY! Now we have the official celebrity/professional partner pairings. Let’s see how the ranks change now that we know how the pairings paired out. (Pun totally intended) If you need your memories refreshed, here is how the rankings panned out without knowing who would be paired up with whom.

NOTE: We have three new professional dancers this go around, so their placement value is based on all the past professional dancers that have only been on the show ONCE in the past twelve seasons (including Inna Brayer, Fabian Sanchez, Charlotte Jorgensen, Damian Whitewood, Brian Fortuna, etc). The placement value is separated between the male and female professional dance partners. As a whole the male professional partners that have been on the show once tend to do better than their female counterparts.

More after the break…

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September 1, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 13 Stats: Pre Season Elimination Predictions

UPDATE: I have changed Elisabetta’s occupation from Model to Actress… note how this changes the rankings.

Hello All! Marianya here… as always every season I try to predict via a series of really complex calculations, statistics, analysis and sometimes gut instinct who will be eliminated, when through the upcoming season of Dancing With the Stars. Sometimes I’m right on point, other times I’m way off base.

Since we won’t officially know celebrity/professional partner pairings until tomorrow (Wednesday) I figure let’s see how the celebrities stand at the moment.

Now if you recall from previous season I use three main factors in calculating placement for the celebrities:
1) Age – probably not too surprising, age plays a role in how a celebrity does on the dance floor. On average the younger celebrities do far better than their elders. Once in a while this may not be the case… for example those in their Teens, 20s, and 30s dominate the placements, but instead of being followed by celebs in their 40s, it is the celebs in their 60s that do well followed by 40s, 70s, 50s and finally 80s.
2) Occupation – believe it or not, what the celeb is primarily known for (aka their primary occupation) plays a factor in their dancing capability. It is a known belief that athletes tend fare far better than comedians, actors/actresses, reality stars, etc… But I break the fields down even further to Olympians, those from the NBA or NFL, boxers and any other athletes that do not fit any of the previous categories. I also separate Actor from Actress, Reality TV Stars get their own category.
3) Professional Partner – this is theoretically suppose to reflect the varying teaching styles of the professional dancers. Granted with a poor student a professional dancer’s teaching style could only go so far, but I think considering all the other varying circumstances of the other categories, this would also be a prime factor to account for.

I will include my own opinion on the matter… but the ranking system is all mathematically based… granted how I break the celebs down is primarily subjective and as thus comments are more than welcome if you believe that there is a better way to describe a particular celebrity.

More beyond the break

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August 30, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Stats Class: Week 2

So… for anyone that remembers, in previous seasons I attempted to predict scores for the Monday night performance show. Sometimes far off the mark and other times pretty darn close.

This season I’m going to try something vastly different.

Similar to how I placed the stars in the pre-season by breaking down the averages of the seasons to professional, occupation and age, I am going to try to use a similar method when trying to predict scores from week to week.

See here you have it, a (hopefully) much more simplistic way to understand my scoring prediction calculations… good luck!

Ralph and Karina – Jive
- Age [40s]: 18.5
- Occupation [Actor]: 23
- Pro Partner: 21
Predicted Score: 20
Thoughts: I don’t really agree with the score, knowing that he was able to pull of in the Foxtrot. But the Jive is a faster dance, and requires a lot of energy. So this tends to be cumbersome for older stars… let’s see how he pulls this off.

Kendra and Louis – Jive
- Age [20s]: 23.444
- Occupation [Reality TV]: 17.5
- Pro Partner: 19.5
Predicted Score: 20
Thoughts: I found it kind of odd that Louis hasn’t fared well with the Jive and his partners, then again, Reality TV stars don’t really fare well over all in dancing, however, she has youth behind her, that could help.

Chelsea and Mark – Jive
- Age [20s]: 23.444
- Occupation [Disney]: 25
- Pro Partner: 21
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Easily one of the younger partnerships, the Jive caters to youth quite well, the question is how much would this pairing take that knowledge to their advantage? It’s Mark… if he goes campy, I quit… wait… it’s Mark… dammit.

Mike and Lacey – Jive
- Age [30s]: 22.043
- Occupation [Host]: 22
- Pro Partner: 28
Predicted Score: 24
Thoughts: Oddly enough, Lacey has never worked on the Jive with any of her partners prior to Week 6. So this could be interesting.

Sugar Ray & Anna – Jive
- Age [50s]: 20.333
- Occupation [Boxer]: 17
- Pro Partner: 21.333
Predicted Score: 19
Thoughts: Despite their quickness of feet in the ring, for some reason it could never transfer over to the dance floor. Could Sugar Ray buck the trend?

Petra and Dmitry – Jive
- Age [30s]: 22.043
- Occupation [Model]: 20.5
- Pro Partner: 27
Predicted Score: 23
Thoughts: Models always did seem out of sorts in the Jive, mainly because she is so tall and with long limbs. The only “tall” celebrity that I could think of that actually looked comfortable in the Jive? Evan Lysacek, but he was an athlete, Petra is not.

Wendy and Tony – Quickstep
- Age [40s]: 20.417
- Occupation [Host]: 22
- Pro Partner: 21
Predicted Score: 21
Thoughts: I firmly believe that the woman’s particular assets are going to be a hindrance versus a help… I mean seriously, since when is having big breasts a help? Ok… don’t answer that. All joking aside, I do believe they are going to be a hell of a hindrance especially with all the hopping around in the Quickstep, though the only thing worse than that? The Jive and THANK GOODNESS she’s not doing that.

Kirstie and Maks – Quickstep
- Age [60s]: 19.2
- Occupation [Actress]: 21.143
- Pro Partner: 23
Predicted Score: 21
Thoughts: Kirstie made a hell of a splash on the ChaCha, but the Quickstep is another animal and a lot faster. She seemed a little winded after the ChaCha last week. As long as she doesn’t pull a Marie, it should be fine and I hope last week wasn’t just a one dance wonder.

Romeo and Chelsie – Quickstep
- Age [20s]: 23.7
- Occupation [Singer]: 23.286
- Pro Partner: 20.5
Predicted Score: 22
Thoughts: Another young partnership that should take advantage of the energy that the Quickstep provides. However, Romeo could have trouble with posture, posture, posture… but considering he has sex appeal for days, does it really matter this early in the season?

Chris and Cheryl – Quickstep
- Age [40s]: 20.417
- Occupation [Athlete]: 20
- Pro Partner: 21.429
Predicted Score: 20
Thoughts: An athlete in their 40s? Ok, maybe not “athlete” per say, but close enough. In all honesty though, I don’t see the Quickstep being a dance that would come easily to him. I see a lower score than the calculation says, but meh… I’m not going to argue with numbers, are you?

Hines and Kym – Quickstep
- Age [30s]: 21.92
- Occupation [NFL]: 21.571
- Pro Partner: 20.5
Predicted Score: 21
Thoughts: Footballers shouldn’t have trouble with this dance, they’re suppose to be quick on their feet. Hines doesn’t have an excuse to score decently.

March 28, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Pure DWTS 12 Before Premiere Time- The Cast On Good Morning America (Video)

Oh, this is so good. Cameron Mathison asks the “Dancing With the Stars” cast about their first show on Good Morning America today!! You can see them rehearsing on stage and being interviewed and shown backstage, etc.. Way fun! Are we getting excited yet here because I’m about to bust wide open?!! lol

Edit to add:: Speaking of Good Morning America, Derek Hough will be rating the dancers tomorrow (Tue.) on the show. So, stay tuned for that as well. ;)

March 21, 2011 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.