DWTS 12 Stat Class: Who has the Edge?

So… before the start of last season I attempted to place the “stars” via a long series of calculations in hopes to predict who would leave when during the course of the season.

Needless to say, although I was off in some cases I was also spot on in other cases.

In case you have forgotten what factors I’ve used to calculate the placement of the stars here’s a bit of a refresher: DWTS Season 11 Stat Class

Now it would be interesting to note how the last season affecting the standings of each pro… so below is what the pro ranks are AFTER Season 11 followed by what they were PRIOR to Season 11:
1. 1.) Derek Hough – 7 Seasons
2. 2.) Julianne Hough – 5 Seasons
3. 4.) Lacey Schwimmer – 4 Seasons
4. 3.) Cheryl Burke – 10 Seasons
5. 7.) Dmitry Chaplin – 2 Seasons
6. 10.) Mark Ballas – 7 Seasons
7. 13.) Maksim Chmerkovskiy – 9 Seasons
8. 5.) Kym Johnson – 8 Seasons
9. 11.) Tony Dovolani – 10 Seasons
10. 14.) Anna Trebunskaya – 6 Seasons
11. 8.) Karina Smirnoff – 8 Seasons
12. 9.) Louis van Amstel – 7 Seasons
13. 6.) Chelsie Hightower – 4 Seasons
14. 12.) Corky Ballas – 2 Season
15. 15.) Edyta Sliwinska – 10 Seasons
16. 16.) Alec Mazo – 5 Seasons
17. 17.) Ashly Costa (nee DelGrosso) – 4 Seasons
18. 18.) Jonathan Roberts – 7 Seasons

As one could see, even if a pro does not participate in a season their overall rank is still affected based on those that are participating.

And for sake of completeness here is how the various age groups rank after Season 11:
1. Teens (below 20 years)
2. 20s (20 thru 29)
3. 30s (30 thru 39)
4. 60s (60 thru 69)
5. 40s (40 thru 49)
6. 70s (70 thru 79)
7. 50s (60 thru 69)
8. 80s (above 79 years)

Now it is important to note that the ages represent the age that a celeb is at while they are participating in the show. So if someone is 29 when they were on the show and is in their early-30s now the age group they are representing is that of their 20s.

And finally we have occupations. I tried to use the primary occupation that a celeb is most known for since we do have a lot of crossover celebrities. This category probably contains the most variables when attempting to calculate ranks:
1. NFL athlete
2. Olympian (one that has been to the Olympics AND medaled)
3. Band Member (ie 98 Degrees, Spice Girls, NKOTB, etc)
4. Disney (anyone that got their start w/ Disney, Billy Ray Cyrus is NOT part of this group)
5. Entertainer (ie Wayne Newton, Marie and Donny Osmond)
6. Soap Opera Star
7. Singer (Master P, Billy Ray Cyrus, Toni Braxton, Lil Kim, Aaron Carter, Michael Bolton)
8. Actor
9. Athlete (ie Helio, Monica Seles, Ty Murray, Chuck Liddell, Louie)
10. Host (ie Kenny Mayne, Jerry Springer, Lezza Gibbons, Brooke Burke, Erin Andrews)
11. Actress
12. NBA athlete
13. Boxer (ie Evander Holyfield, Laila Ali, Floyd Mayweather)
14. Reality TV Star
15. Other (anyone that does not fit in any other category)
16. Model
17. Comedian

Now that we know which celebs are part of Season 12, it is time to calculate and attempt to predict how they would place in the upcoming season.

For issues of time and ease of understanding I am only going notate which group each celeb fits per category and their rank, as well as their overall rank.

Age: 50s (Rank: 11)
Occupation: Boxer (Rank: 9)
Pro Partner: Anna Trebunskaya (Rank: 8 )
I really don’t know what to say about this. I mean Anna has done well recently, but for every high placement she has a low placement. Other than Laila Ali, Boxers typically do not rank high in their season despite the natural fast feet. But the first to go? I could see others more likely to fit that bill…

Age: 40s (Rank: 8 )
Occupation: Host (Rank: 6)
Pro Partner: Tony Dovolani (Rank: 7)
Female hosts tend to do better than male hosts in the overall standings, but that is also dependent on what they have come in with and if memory serves most of those female hosts has had some prior dance experience, be it ballet, contemporary, etc. Does Wendy have any of that? Not to my knowledge but things could change. Still, personally, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see her as one of the first to go.

Age: 40s (Rank: 8 )
Occupation: Actor (Rank: 4)
Pro Partner: Karina Smirnoff (Rank: 9)
Actors tend to do better than actresses, granted that’s mainly in part of the viewing demographic. However with other better eye candy on the horizon, does he really stand a chance?

Age: 20s (Rank: 1)
Occupation: Reality TV Star (Rank: 10)
Pro Partner: Louis van Amstel (Rank: 10)
Another bunny decides that she wanted to come out and play. Thank goodness her first dance isn’t the quickstep, else I may have to walk away do to some distraction or another. I mean, having a bounce is one thing, but bouncing all over the place is quite another. Still the ChaCHa isn’t exactly an improvement in the bounce department, unless Louis knows how to keep the puppies tame. Being young has its advantages, but that only goes so far.

Age: 60s (Rank: 7)
Occupation: Actress (Rank: 8 )
Pro Partner: Maksim Chmerkovskiy (Rank: 5)
Maksim has had his taste in the top three for a few seasons now, but Kristie is coming up in her age. To me she’s the most “known” but that is only because I loved the “Look Whose Talking” movie series with John Travolta. It will be interesting to see what she comes up with.

Age: 30s (Rank: 4)
Occupation: Model (Rank: 11)
Pro Partner: Dmitry Chaplin (Rank: 3)
Ah yes, the prettiest couple. I am a Dmitry ‘groupie’, so any chance that he could stay on the show longer is a happy day for me. But models tend to do poorly when it comes to placement beating out comedians! Ah well, I’m crossing my fingers.

Age: 20s (Rank: 1)
Occupation: Singer (Rank: 3)
Pro Partner: Chelsie Hightower (Rank: 11)
YES!!! You have no idea how excited I was to hear that they asked him to come on this season. He has GOT to be an improvement over his dad. His pro partner is arguably an improvement (for those that have forgotten, when he was originally asked to join, his partner was slated Ashly DelGrosso now Costa but he was replaced by his dad due to injury). So I am very interested to see how this would pan out.

Age: 40s (Rank: 8 )
Occupation: Athlete (Rank: 5)
Pro Partner: Cheryl Burke (Rank: 2)
As yes, Cheryl gets another athlete, there isn’t much to be said, because she knows how to get an athlete to work. So what’s the point?

Age: 30s (Rank: 4)
Occupation: Host (Rank: 6)
Pro Partner: Lacey Schwimmer (Rank: 1)
I don’t know him. Do you? I can’t comment on someone that I have no idea about, I’m sorry.

Age: 30s (Rank: 4)
Occupation: NFL athlete (Rank: 1)
Pro Partner: Kym Johnson (Rank: 6)
NFL players have a tendency to finish in the top half of the season celebs, with a good number of them finishing near the top three. Hines has his work cut out with him if he is expected to keep the NFL legacy alive. At least he isn’t a quarterback. *evil cackle*

Age: 20s (Rank: 1)
Occupation: Disney (Rank: 2)
Pro Partner: Mark Ballas (Rank: 4)
Don’t ask me how this happened. But it has happened again. In last year’s pre-season ranking I had Bristol Palin and Kyle Massey in the top three and look what happened! I am just saying that at this point, anything can happen.

And there you have it, the final odds as calculated by my normalized calculations derived from the last eleven seasons. Normally I wouldn’t agree with a good number of these ranks, but as it stands, numbers don’t lie and last year just reminded me of that. So let’s just sit back, relax, and see what’s going to happen this season.