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PureDWTS Season 24 Court Rants: I Don’t Care How “Rabid” Your Fanbase Is, You Won’t Win Without the General Audience Vote!

For the regulars, you probably have witnessed what prompted this rant 😛 For the non-regulars, bear with me: it seems like every season, there is at least one fanbase that just bugs the ever-loving sh*t out of me – and it’s usually because said fanbase decides to obnoxiously remind the entire online DWTS fandom how awesome their favorite is, and how they’re going to win, and how they’re sooooo much better than other contestants, and how much harder they’re gonna vote than all the other fans, how rabid & supportive the fanbase is, etc.  Basically – if they can think of something to boast about, they will.  Loudly, frequently, and obnoxiously…and the rest of the fans just have to grit their teeth and bear it until the season ends or that particular contestant gets eliminated.

But here’s the funny part: for all the boasting these fanbases do, very seldom do their contestants actually win DWTS.  Why? To quote one of my Twitter followers, “If you have to tell us how big it is…it’s probably not that big.” 😉 But seriously, though – there’s a bit more to it than that.  You have to take viewing demographics into account, and whether or not that fanbase aligns well with the main viewing demographic; you also have to consider if there’s another contestant on a particular season who perhaps aligns better with the main viewing demographic.  The bottom line is this:

You cannot win DWTS if you don’t have the main viewing demographic of the show on your side.

And right now, I can hear the defiant protests of hoards of Harmonizers 😛 Go ahead – you guys can tell us all till you’re blue in the face how “rabid” you are, how “organized” you are, how “passionate & committed” you are.  It comes across as a tad insecure, but go ahead.  But I’m gonna warn you right now, unless Normani can get demographics on her side (or the show tries to pull off a pimping of never-before-seen proportions), I can almost guarantee she will not win. Let me explain why, using historical data from the show…

…Read more

March 24, 2017 I Written By

Ultrasound sales specialist by day, semi-knowledgeable DWTS fan by night...with a smattering of hair & makeup enthusiast, occasional model, baker, and crazy cat lady peppered in to make things REALLY interesting ;-) I might pee my pants in happiness if Donnie Wahlberg ever does DWTS - or if they ever use "Sunglasses at Night" as a paso doble. Follow me on Twitter & Instagram: @putuincespence

PureDWTS Season 24 – Glee’s Heather Morris is Dancing this Season **POLL**

So yeah, remember that “ringiest ringer ever” I was hinting at on Twitter the other night? Well the cat’s outta the bag – it’s Glee‘s Heather Morris:

It’s Brittany, b–ch.

Glee star Heather Morris is set to join the Dancing With the Stars cast for its upcoming 24th season, sources exclusively tell E! News. Our sources also tell us The Bachelor‘s Nick Viall is set to compete as well, making him the franchise’s first lead to do DWTS since Chris Soules in 2015.

More at E!

And because I’m feeling sort-of generous this morning, I’ll also reveal this: her partner is Maks.

Let’s address the elephant in the room here: as far as I can recall, Heather is the first legitimate professional dancer that has been cast as one of the celebs on DWTS.  She tried out for season 2 of SYTYCD (but didn’t make the top 20), and she also danced backup for Beyonce. BEYONCE. She was not an actor or a singer when she was brought to the Glee set to teach the “Single Ladies” dance to Kurt – but Ryan Murphy liked her so much that he actually created the role of Brittany for her.  But from what I can tell, she hasn’t done much acting or singing since Glee wrapped in 2015.

As I’ve said before – I’m all for ringers, as they (usually) guarantee we’ll see high-quality dancing from season to season.  But is the show really so desperate that they’d cast an actual professional dancer??? Say what you will about Nicole Scherzinger – she was primarily a singer, and secondarily a dancer from her girl group days; as was Mya.  But I don’t think we’ve ever had someone that was primarily a dancer and had only a bit of experience in some other medium.

Thoughts? Let us know in the comments, and vote in the poll below.

February 27, 2017 I Written By

Ultrasound sales specialist by day, semi-knowledgeable DWTS fan by night...with a smattering of hair & makeup enthusiast, occasional model, baker, and crazy cat lady peppered in to make things REALLY interesting ;-) I might pee my pants in happiness if Donnie Wahlberg ever does DWTS - or if they ever use "Sunglasses at Night" as a paso doble. Follow me on Twitter & Instagram: @putuincespence

DWTS Season 18 Rumors!! Naya Rivera and Cassie

Hmmm….really?? I am skeptical.   From GWL magazine:

First up is the beautiful and newly-engaged Naya Rivera, who is rapper Big Sean’s fiancee’ and most known for her role as Santana Lopez on FOX musical drama, Glee. Although Naya has yet to confirm or deny the news, the source confirms she’s “very excited about this opportunity” as she prepares to release her debut solo album this Spring and currently planning her wedding.

We also hear that singer and model Cassie Ventura will be shaking her tail-feather on the show this season. An inside source tells Star Magazine that “Cassie loves to dance” and, although she has actually passed on a similar opportunity in the past, she is now ready to join the new season of the show.

 

Naya Rivera is Amber’s cast mate at Glee and would undoubtedly be good…but two Glee stars in a row? Would not surprise me, but I think it’s important to remind people that rumors that come out this early are usually just that…RUMORS. They usually turn out wrong. But with her coming out with a new album in the spring??

As for Cassie – never heard of her before, but maybe that’s a good reason for her to do the show.  Thanks to @DWTSGossip for the heads up.

December 18, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 10 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well. As I said last week, if you score normally, and don’t make the margin between the upper tier of dancers super tiny, then you stop having “shocking” eliminations. It only took them ten weeks to figure it out. Or maybe Leah had just served her purpose of getting more famous people in the audience.  Either way, she was eliminated and it didn’t take much for that to happen. Here are the judges scores for both dances – those in grey are my predictions…well, my second set of predictions. 🙂 I wasn’t sure which way they were going to go with. Glad they selected option number 2. 🙂

Table 1

These scores led to the following vote requirements.

Table 2

Note that in week 9, the margin between Leah and Liz was less than 7k votes. This week, when they aren’t over inflating everyone’s score trying to get rid of Bill, Leah needed well more than 17k votes per million votes cast to get to Jack, Amber or Corbin. Here’s what caused her to be eliminated – all of the following happened: Read more..

November 23, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, well, well…sometimes I’m right and I don’t want to be. I said way back when at the beginning of the season that both Christina and Liz were possible early eliminees (along with Brant) but once Christina was gone I had hoped that Elizabeth could make it to the end. Afraid not. She seemed like a nice woman but she just wasn’t getting the votes and her time ran out. She and Christina are the Season 17 equivalent to Kristin and Chynna – only both women lasted longer this season, probably due to better dancing on their part.

Once again we are in a situation of having no real idea of how either Bill or Leah (or any of the rest of them) are doing in terms of votes. It’s a mystery. And it will likely continue to be very interesting because I think Derek had it right when he said that the votes occurring the week before makes it more unpredictable.  Like I said before, last season if you make it through a bad week, you’ve made it through period. But this season, if a bunch of people didn’t like your dance this past week and didn’t vote for you, you have NO chance to redeem yourself – they can’t come out this Monday and do a killer dance such that everyone votes for them and be safe. They can get the great scores, but if people stopped voting for them because their dances just weren’t good last week, then it might not matter. What happened week 8? Well, that’s when Liz changed the choreo at the last minute on Val, against his wishes and it resulted in less than stellar dancing. And clearly, she couldn’t afford that.

Let’s take a look at the scores and the votes needed this past week.

Table 1

Table 2

So, Bill took a step back this week in terms of dancing – will it cost him this coming Monday? What about Amber – everyone knows she’s injured, but what if her time is up? And will they continue to desperately overscore Leah to keep her in the game?? Because, really, when you look at the math it becomes obvious that MAYBE if they had kept it real on Leah, that Liz might still be there.  No one can make a claim, for sure, that their couple is getting a ton of votes because EVERYONE except Corbin beat a margin to get past Liz in terms of votes. Which means she likely wasn’t getting any. Here’s what happened that lead to Liz’s elimination. ALL of the following happened: Read more..

November 16, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers

Examples of why immunity may not be a good thing:

  1. Will average fans GET that Amber still needs votes?
  2. After having a solid 3 point lead in the cumulative score, Amber is now tied with Corbin IF they include the dance offs (and marathons) in the cumulative total. They shouldn’t, but…

I think the coming week could be a dangerous one for Amber, but I guess we’ll have to hope that fans are smarter than some on the net clearly believe they are. No names. 🙂

I’ve seen quite a few comments about Leah getting propped by the judges – dudes, they fired a shot across her bow the other night by giving her two 8s. That ain’t propped. I think (hope) it was a sign of things to come. I’ve also seen speculation that her scores are meant to justify her place in the finale based on votes. This is a theory that I often toy with and have seen in action. If they were going to do that, though, I don’t think she would have gotten 8s last Monday night at all.  This coming week will be an indication if they’re going to start playing that game. If Bill’s scores suddenly improve? There you go. He may be finale bound. However, another theory I toy with every season is their lulling the audience into a position where an elimination becomes “shocking” – their treatment of Bill Monday night may just qualify for that, as could Amber winning immunity. I guess we have to wait and see, but you heard it here first.  🙂  It worked on me, after all. I had been calling Brant a possible early exit early in the season, but they lulled me out of it.

Anyway, what exactly happened last Monday night? Well, Liz proved that someone is, indeed, voting for her. She was 3 points lower than Brant and covered the spread. They didn’t even put her in danger – that was Jack’s honor. Of course, with the way everything went down with Bill being immediately safe (so immediate that it was on the teleprompter, which means they knew before he danced, I think), I have to believe that no one was voting for Brant. You could argue that such a massive number of people were voting for Bill they just knew – but Liz covering the spread is an interesting little factoid to throw in there to make you wonder. If only one person is beating the spread it’s one thing, but for two of them to do it? Brant wasn’t getting votes, IMO. Liz is someone that I think is in dangerous territory and she better not be only 1 point away from Bill again next week. Could be trouble.  The tables below show where everyone ended up: Read more..

November 9, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers

I’ve seen lots of people making the mistaken assumption (again) that Bill must be getting a ton of votes. This is not necessarily true. And it’s not necessarily false. We don’t actually know. All we know is that Nicole WASN’T getting the votes she needed and that Bill and Leah were getting enough to cover the spread. But as I’ve said before, If Nicole got 10 votes, Bill got 15k votes and Leah gets 20k votes does it matter when Corbin is getting 100k votes?? Nope. It just means that Nicole was first to go of the three, instead of second. Follow me?

Anyway, this week was not a major accomplishment by Bill or Leah, IMO. I think Nicole, along with possibly Jack, fall into the dangerous middle of the road territory, not so much in scoring, but certainly in the impact they are having on the show. I’m also wondering if Brant falls into this category, but he hasn’t even gotten close to “jeopardy” in a few weeks now.  Here’s where the scores from weeks 6 and 7 put each of our couples.

Table 1

Ten whole points between Bill and Nicole seems like a lot, eh?? Not so much as you might think. As shown, below, Bill only needed about 15k votes per million votes cast to beat Nicole – that’s not even close to the largest margin beaten on this show (45k, I believe, by Kurt Warner, who was eliminated the very next week). I was saying the same thing then as I am now – don’t count your chickens. Read more..

November 2, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 6 – Dancing by the Numbers

The first thing that popped into my head when looking at the numbers was, “Damn, Bill has a shot here.”  Seriously, he really could.  And when they add another 50 – 60 points to each couple, it could get better. But I skip ahead.  The table below shows my estimated scores along with the actual scores.

Table 1

Gee, when all is said and done, the two “shocking” scores are the only ones I wasn’t either on target or very close with – does anyone think this is coincidental?? I don’t. I mean, they weren’t natural or normal, so there you go.

Now, 4 points seems like a lot, between Bill and Jack/Corbin, but it only translates to 13k votes per million votes cast.  That’s a middling number – not low, not super high. Maybe it’s my wishful thinking, but I think Bill can get that over Jack. Probably not Corbin, because I can’t believe they would risk him with a shit score if he wasn’t getting the votes.  Of course, ABC just had a commercial that said something along the lines of “Don’t miss the first minute, or you’ll miss a big announcement” – Linz on twitter saw it and she thinks it’s something about JLo performing, someone else said she might be guest judging – I’m thinking they’re going to have a double elimination surprise. And yes, I know Derek said there wasn’t one – but that’s the whole point of a “surprise” right? My cynical brain says that they didn’t announce it last week or put it in the press release because they wanted to see what the votes looked like first. Which could be bad news for Bill and Jack.   Anyway, let’s look at how the vote requirements stand after the end of Monday’s show. Read more..

October 26, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers PART II

Hey, I totally forgot to account for the Switcheroo Challenge crapola in my last post. It will be rather difficult to account for it in this follow up, since we aren’t really sure how it’s going to work.  Here’s what we know about it:

  • There appears to be two groups, one group comprised of Bill, Liz, Corbin and Jack. Everyone else is in the other group.
  • It is a switched up marathon with 2 rounds.
  • The music will change at least once during the marathon, presumably the style will change as well. I hear three possible styles, but that could just be chatter.
  • You get scored according to how long you last.
  • You don’t know the music or style you will be dancing too, although I presume they were given a list of potential styles.

Despite knowing all those things, we don’t really know how it’s going to work. I’m going to GUESS that it will be TWO marathons – first one group will do it and then the other group will do it. They will score each group like they do the standard marathons, that is the longer you stay, the more points you get. So, if it’s four couples, you can get a 7, 8, 9 or a 10.   Why the groups?? Perhaps it’s easier to judge…perhaps it’s easier to stage…perhaps they have TWO people they need to give the extra points to. 🙂 But as we know, more points handed out is not necessarily a good thing. Read more..

October 20, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 17, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

Sorry for the delay this week, kids. Extremely busy at work to the point where it will be lucky if I move this weekend. Lots to talk about, so let’s get on with it…

The week of the not-so-shocking elimination. As I’ve said a few times, Courtney and I have been calling this elimination since nearly the start of the show. At first we said it would be either Elizabeth or Christina and then in the last week or three we’ve been thinking Christina, for a variety of reasons. My thinking was that they were both good dancers that weren’t connecting as much with the audience. In addition, they’re of a similar type: good body, good to really good dancer, pretty, not too old but not incredibly young, average to smallish fanbase.  The show can only support ONE of this type and I think we’ve seen that in the past.

  • Kristin and Chynna in Season 13, eliminated 3rd and 4th
  • Audrina and Brandy in Season 11, eliminated 6th and 9th
  • Sabrina and Mel B in Season 5, eliminated 6th and 11th

Of course there are other early eliminations where there isn’t a corresponding person who goes a bit farther, but we’re in another season where there are two women who fall into a similar category. If you look at everyone else on the show, they all fall into their own niche…although it could be argued that Brant and Corbin are in a group together, but this doesn’t seem to occur with men and all the shocking eliminations that most people remember are female.

Now the question is – is Elizabeth another Chynna, or another Brandy or Mel B?? It all depends on how freaked the judges are by losing Christina and they’ve already massively overscored people.  I mean, look at the scores this week in the table below – they’ve gone mad. It was week 5 most people had a 26 or higher? Are they insane?? Or are they trying to send Leah home and failed to protect Christina well enough?? Read more..

October 19, 2013 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)