Seeing as there was a little confusion as to how I make these comparisons/predictions here’s a quick recap of the process.
I take a look at scores of previous celebs in accordance to the professional they danced with and then narrowed that down to specific dances that a pro has done with past celebs. (Example: If Chelsie and Jake were dancing the Argentine Tango tomorrow, the scores I would use are all previous celebs that have danced the Argentine Tango with Chelsie in past seasons).
Now if there are not enough scores to make any kind of reasonable assumption then I look back to various celebs that have danced that particular dance that is closest to this season’s celeb (in regards to primary profession) and add those scores to the prediction (Example: with Jake Pavelka I would use past reality stars as a basis).
With many thanks to Princess Heidi for an idea of what’s going to happen on Monday, here are my predictions for Monday’s show and Tuesday’s elimination.
Erin Andrews/Maksim Chmerkovskiy – Quickstep
Season 8: (w/ Denise Richards, Week 2): 21/30
Season 5: (w/ Melanie Brown, Week 2): 23/30
Season 4: (w/ Laila Ali, Week 7): 29/30
Niecy Nash/Louis van Amstel – Quickstep
Season 9: (w/ Kelly Osbourne, Week 9): 27/30
Season 3: (w/ Monique Coleman, Week 7): 27/30
Season 2: (w/ Lisa Rinna, Week 6): 27/30
Chad Ochocinco/Cheryl Burke – Viennese Waltz
Season 8: (w/ Gilles Marini, Week 7): 27/30
Season 7: (w/ Maurice Greene, Week 6): 21/30
Season 6: (w/ Cristian de la Fuente, Week 7): 25/30
Nicole Scherzinger/Derek Hough – Slow Waltz
Season 9: (w/ Joanna Krupa, Week 6): 26/30
Season 8: (w/ Lil Kim, Week 9): 25/30
– Since there is so little data, I also looked at past celebs that have been in band groups (NSync, 98 Degrees, etc)
Season 4: (Joey Fatone/Kym Johnson, Week 8): 26/30
Pamela Anderson/Damian Whitewood – Slow Waltz
– Since Damian is a new pro I looked to various celebs that have danced the Waltz and are known primarily as a television actor (normally I would have done past Playboy models, but there weren’t any available)
Season 9: (Melissa Joan Hart/Mark Ballas, Week 6): 20/30
Season 4: (Ian Ziering/Cheryl Burke, Week 4): 24/30
Season 3: (Joey Lawrence/Edyta Sliwinska, Week 4): 27/30
Season 3: (Mario Lopez/Karina Smirnoff, Week 8): 28/30
Season 2: (Lisa Rinna/Louis van Amstel, Week 1): 19/30
Evan Lysacek/Anna Trebunskaya – Argentine Tango
– Since Anna has not danced the Argentine Tango with a celeb before I had to use data from previous celebs that are Olympians that have danced the Argentine Tango
Season 9: (Louie Vito/Chelsie Hightower, Week 5): 22/30
Season 8: (Shawn Johnson/Mark Ballas, Week 10): 30/30
For the team dances I’ve decided to provide for you the scores the celebs have received for the Cha Cha they have done, and if they have not done the Cha Cha yet (looking at Evan and Nicole) I’ve provided the scores for the other Latin dances instead.
Team Madonna (Cha Cha)
– Samba – Week 6 – 21/30
– Rumba – Week 5 – 27/30
– Jive – Week 2 – 24/30
Erin/Maks – Week 1 – 21/30
Niecy/Louis – Week 1 – 18/30
Team Gaga (Cha Cha)
– Samba – Week 6 – 26/30
– Rumba – Week 4 – 25/30
– Jive – Week 2 – 28/30
Pam/Damien – Week 1 – 21/30
Chad/Cheryl – Week 1 – 18/30
In regards to the team dances, I believe that Team Gaga will have the edge in regards to scores… this would undoubtedly help Chad since to me Chad and Niecy would be in the bottom two this week with Niecy going home (though I wouldn’t be surprised if Chad is swapped with Pamela).
Those are my predictions… what are yours?