Kym tells ET how Jaleel and her are a stronger team now after being on a roller coaster ride with scores. They are taking one week at a time. They have a new koala mascot to “boost their spirits” and “inspire” them to achieve their goals…
Yay Week 7 aka Classical Week, and you know what that means? It means that later this week you’ll get my Predicted Scores Scorecard for the “Middle Third” of the season. Are you wondering what I mean by the “middle third” well… continue reading.
– First “Third”: Weeks 1 through 4
– Middle “Third”: Weeks 4 through 7
– Last “Third”: Weeks 7 through 10
And in case you’ve forgotten here is the post of how the “Age”, “Occupation”, “Professional Partner” categories breakdown.
Since this is Week 7 how does that affect the predicted scores since I have Week 7 in both the “middle third” and “last third”… simply that I will have individual average scores for the two thirds and average it out from there… I had a reason for doing this, because I did the same in Week 4, but for the life of me I forgot why… anyway… onward!
Dance: Argentine Tango
– Age: 23.667
– Occupation: N/A
– Professional Partner: 22.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 25 / 7th
Comments: Oh boy, in a dance where lifts are actually allowed, Roshon isn’t going to be able to take full advantage of that little nuance unless they pull some of the lower lifts like the pseudo one they did during the Rumba last week. The only Disney kids to have done the Argentine Tango were Season 11’s Kyle Massey (29) and Season 12’s Chelsea Kane (28), but they did the Argentine Tango in Week 9 which are in the “last third” of the season breakdown. Whether Roshon could get anywhere near that high is anyone’s guess, I’m hoping he can, but the numbers are telling a different story here.
Dance: Argentine Tango
– Age: 20.833
– Occupation: 24.333
– Professional Partner: 24.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 25 / 6th
Comments: Only Season 10’s Pamela Anderson has done the Argetine Tango and she got a 22 (actress in her 40s), what is also odd is that she has had a lot of 7-paddles up to Week 6 only to finally break the barrier in Week 7 (she’s had a couple more 8 paddle in her run up to the point, but the scores were roughly in the same area). So the trends seem to be rather similar between Melissa and Pamela in general. Maybe this would be Melissa’s week to shine like it was Pamela’s break out week? But would it be enough, since Pamela was voted off in Week 7 as well? I guess only time will tell.
Well, another week, another set of dances. I’ll be curious to see the running order this week, even though I don’t believe it means as much at this stage of the competition. Especially since the two team dances will either be first or last. If they put them first and continue their trend of having certain celebrities in the last half of the show, I’ll cry foul again. They are certainly doing everything they can for certain couples, while others dance in the first hour most of the time. Maria, Melissa, Roshon and Jaleel have jumped all over the place, with Maria, Melissa and Roshon more heavily in the first hour. Donald has been in the second hour or the middle of the pack except for week 1. Jaleel made it to the second hour again last week likely due to having one of the better dances I’ve seen on this season so far. And that includes anything done by William or Katherine.
And that brings us back to our two favored children, William and Katherine. The Royal couple. :::snicker::: I do wonder if the British producers of this show see those two names and unconsciously pimp them or if they are just totally overt in wanting them to win and doing what they can to make it happen. Katherine has actually danced in the first hour and has spent MOST of her time dancing at the top of the hour, which is also a good spot. William has never danced in the first hour. He’s the only celeb to get the pimp spot THREE times (and in 6 weeks, that’s pretty good). I actually like Katherine, and William seems like an okay dude – but I can’t root for anyone who is so heavily favored at the expense of everyone else. Roshon got seriously hosed last week and Donald has yet to get a score that he deserves, relative to others – both are better dancers than William, IMO. Never has this show felt more manipulative than it does right now. And why?
Maybe the ratings grabbers are going in the second hour?? Well, how do they know a particular person is grabbing ratings?? I don’t think they do, for sure, plus they MADE William into the ratings grabber – they pimped him heavily so that he got news, then that generated more news and hype – till he got the cover of People magazine. I have to wonder if that was their goal all along. Just the hype and “DWTS” on the cover of People magazine. Actually, they did the exact same thing last season with JR – who was a very likable guy with a great backstory. But not the amazing dancer that everyone claimed. I’m starting to think that the producers see guys like JR and William and see people they can hype right on to the cover of magazines – which garners free PR for the show. Yep, I’m cynical. How can one not be with all the over scoring and dance duels and the double elimination coming soon?? And really, how long till it backfires and everyone sees the man behind the curtain?? This play for ratings is a plan with diminishing returns, IMO.
But I have to wonder…will they give William the first spot and put the team dances at the end of the show?? Because really, dancing the last individual dance isn’t going to be that good of a spot in the running order if they do the team dances last. I will have to laugh, as I can hear it now – “William finally goes in the first hour!!” Um, yeah, because he might get lost in the fun of the team dances….and we can’t have that. I think I might even make that my guess…
ETA: SCORE!! Both William and Katherine in the first half of the show with the Team dances at the end…Team Paso going last. Gee, I’m so surprised. :-)
ETA 2: And after I hypothesize that going towards the end of the individual dances might not be good….we find Maria and Derek in the second to last position. At least Derek is excited about both dances….
Katherine and Mark – Rumba; Dancing 1st
Voting # 1-800-868-3410
Roshon and Chelsie – Argentine Tango
Voting # 1-800-868-3405
William and Cheryl – V. Waltz; Dancing 3rd
Voting # 1-800-868-3408
Melissa and Maks – Argentine Tango;
Voting # 1-800-868-3407
Donald and Peta – V. Waltz; Dancing 5th
Voting # 1-800-868-3403
Maria and Derek – Paso Doble; Dancing 6th
Voting # 1-800-868-3401
Jaleel and Kym – V. Waltz;
Voting # 1-800-868-3412
If the running order ends up being something like that, above, then my money is on the team dances going last. If William is in the second half, again, then my money is on the team dances going first. They’ve only been first one other time, as I recall – Season 10?? Someone look it up for me.
I predict right now that Katherine gets a 30 this week – whether she deserves it or not. William is tough. He’s doing the V. Waltz and Cheryl can’t sex it up. Someone in the comments on another post predicted that the judges are going to start scoring him more realistically, and that they’ve shown signs of it already. I tend to agree with that. It will be interesting to see. I don’t think that the judges scoring always corresponds to the producer pimpage. The team dances?? Just on the face of it, Team Tango looks stronger. Not just because they have Derek, but because that team seems to have the better over all dancers. But they are handicapped by having four couples instead of three. Maria’s injuries also appear to be getting worse, so she might be an issue. Frankly, I wonder how much longer she can go on.
I’ve read that the dance duel this week (spare me the agony of another of these horrendous things, please) is rumba, although Wiki says Salsa. Either way, it’s guaranteed to suck, big time. No matter who’s doing it.
Sorry we are a little late with these, but, I wanted to wait until Miss Heidi got home from her travels this week so she could add her fun input. With that said,…
The new Las Vegas Odds have been posted at Las Vegas Sports Betting. In comparison to last week’s odds, note how Donald and Katherine have switched places for first, but, not by much. Everyone else is in the same order, though I continue to think they (and the judges) are underestimating Roshon and not giving him enough credit for his ability to dance which I think is sad. Let’s get Heidi’s and Courtney’s thoughts and be sure to let us know your thoughts as well in the comments.
The new Las Vegas Odds for this week:
Katherine Jenkins 7/4
Donald Driver 19/10
William Levy 11/4
Maria Menounos 15/2
Jaleel White 12/1
Roshon Fegan 50/1
Melissa Gilbert 50/1
Last week’s Las Vegas Odds:
Donald Driver 19/10
Katherine Jenkins 2/1
William Levy 9/4
Maria Menounos 8/1
Jaleel White 25/1
Melissa Gilbert 30/1
Roshon Fegan 30/1
Gladys Knight 100/1
Courtney: Not much to say this week – I think they’re finally starting to get close to the actual odds. Kinda sucks, though, that they have put Katherine increasingly closer to 1:1 odds – 1:1 odds signify that you’re basically guaranteed to win, so they must be feeling like Katherine’s got this thing pretty much in the bag. I would like to think that we’re not at the point where things are set in stone yet – that someone like Donald or Maria might be able to swoop in and make a run for the MBT. But sadly, with each week that passes and the judges overscore/underscore certain couples, I’m beginning to think we’re stuck with a Katherine/William finale, and the 3rd spot will be whatever poor couple that can weather the sh*tstorm the best. This season gives me a sad
Heidi: I dunno…I know an awful lot of Derek fans planning to vote for Donald if Maria gets eliminated. I don’t think Katherine has this thing in the bag at all. The key will be once we get past the dance duels and/or the double elimination. Will they start scoring it more realistically or will they keep over scoring Katherine and William to a ridiculous degree until they have safely gotten rid of Melissa/Maria/Roshon??? Really, keep giving William and Katherine undeserved tens and start throwing eights at Maria and even lower at Roshon and Melissa and that’s really all you have to do to engineer the finale you want. Why do they want that particular finale?? Because they’ve gotten it in their heads that if they don’t manipulate the proceedings, the “good” dancers will go home and the audience will either be mad or the show will lose credibility. They’ve made the classic mistake of thinking their audience is stupid. Only a small portion of the audience is truly stupid…and unfortunately, those are the ones with the loudest voices. So, how desperate are they for a William/Katherine finale?? I guess we’ll see.
Here are some details for the entertainment from the Orlando Sentinel this morning for Week 7 of Dancing With The Stars. They also outline the Team Dances and Dance Duel.
Violinist Joshua Bell opens the show by playing Vivaldi. Soprano prodigy Jackie Evancho, a favorite from “America’s Got Talent,” and Italian tenor Vittorio Grigolo will sing as the seven remaining couples dance.
The two-hour show, which starts at 8 p.m., will conclude with team dances. Team Paso has Melissa Gilbert, William Levy and Donald Driver. Team Tango has Katherine Jenkins, Maria Menounos, Roshon Fegan and Jaleel White.
Tuesday’s results show, at 9 p.m., brings back Gavin DeGraw, the fourth celebrity ejected this season. He will sing his new single, “Sweeter.”
In the last dance duel, the two lowest-scoring celebrities and their partners face off on the rumba. The judges will decide which one leaves, and that will be the end of that rule change this season.
And thank goodness for THAT!
You can read the full article here.
So we now know for sure what the team dances are (paso doble & tango) and who’s on what team (Katherine, Maria, Jaleel, & Roshon vs. William, Donald, & Melissa). So who’s gonna win? Let’s see how they stack up. I looked at several factors that could come into play in helping to determine who has the advantage – experience level of the pros on each team, experience level of the couples on each team, number of couples on each team, what dance each team has, and other miscellaneous factors that may affect the outcome. So let’s get to it!
Pro Team Dance Experience
Derek: 6 wins (seasons 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 13), 0 losses, 0 ties; average team dance score: 27.5
Cheryl: 4 wins (seasons 7, 8, 10, 13), 1 loss (season 11), 0 ties; average team dance score: 26.8
Kym: 2 wins (seasons 7 & 9), 1 loss (season 13), 1 tie (season 12); average team dance score: 25.75*
Maks: 2 wins (seasons 11 & 13), 1 loss (season 10), 1 tie (season 12); average team dance score: 25*
Chelsie: 1 win (season 8), 0 losses, 1 tie (season 12); average team dance score: 25*
Mark: 0 wins, 2 losses (seasons 8 & 11), 1 tie (season 12); average team dance score: 23.67*
Peta: 0 wins, 0 losses, 0 ties (never been in a team dance); average team dance score: 0
*Since there were 4 judges’ scores given for the team dances in season 12, I subtracted Donnie Burns’ score from the two team dances in that season in order to normalize with all of the other seasons, which only had 3 judges’ scores.
Team Tango: I’d say their biggest advantage is having Derek – the guy’s undefeated, so he’s clearly figured out the formula for what works and what doesn’t work in the team dances. Say what you will about team dances being a product of all the pros working together (I agree to some extent), but the only common denominator in every single team dance win has been Derek, regardless of what other pros have been on each team with him, what the dance style has been, etc. Many of the pros have also gone on record as saying that they tend to let Derek take the lead when choreographing the group portions of the team dance, so I’d say he probably has a lot to do with the success of each of the teams he’s on, as the judges do tend to really harp on synchonization, interesting formation patterns, and overall performance quality in the group portion of team dances. I’d say Kym is an asset as well – she’s been on a team with Derek twice before (one of those times was another team tango), and when she hasn’t been on a team with him, she’s managed to tie once, and the 1 team dance she lost was not really all that bad, IMO. I don’t really know if Chelsie is battle-tested enough to say whether she’s good in the team dance or not – but I don’t get the impression that she is one to make waves, so she will probably be very cooperative and easy to get along with. My only concern is Mark – he seemed rather volatile in the team dance rehearsals in season 12, and seems to have a penchant for very flashy, high-energy, in-your-face choreo…which doesn’ t always translate well in the team dances. I’m hoping that he lets Derek take the lead on the group choreography, and really focuses on giving Katherine some good, solid solo choreography this week.
Team Paso: While I think they don’t have quite the same edge that Team Katherine does, I don’t think they’re super weak, either. Both Cheryl & Maks have been on teams with Derek before, so they’ve probably at least picked up a few tricks and strategies – I would say Maks is probably the stronger choreographer, judging from what I’ve seen him do in other team dances and pro dances. The big question mark here is Peta – we just don’t know how she’s going to fare, since this will be her first team dance. I doubt she’s going to suck at it (I don’t think anyone has really sucked at it – except maybe the unfortunate souls in the team mambo in season 8…), but it may take her a little longer to really get a feel for how the team dances work and what to do for Donald’s solo. I think she’s probably going to rely on Cheryl & Maks for the group choreo, and isn’t likely to make any sort of big fuss, since she’s the new kid on the block.
Who has the edge in pro experience? I’ve got to give this one to Team Tango – they’ve got the only undefeated pro, and each of the other pros has been in at least 2 team dances. Read more..
Pictured above is Chelsie Hightower, her partner Roshon Fegan, and Jaleel White at a Dancing With The Stars after-party Monday night at the Mixology in Los Angeles. Now the couples are working hard on their next rounds of dances for Monday. About Dancing With The Stars (I’m assuming), Jaleel White tweeted, “Slow & steady wins the race.” Last night, Chelsie tweeted, “Rehearsal went well today, I love the argentine tango… For real”.
You can view more pics from this album at Zimbio Pictures.
Well, we’ve reached the halfway point (sort of…) of the competition. Only 7 of the 12 couples we started with remain, and each couple has 6 dances down and 6 more regular ones to go (not counting team dances, freestyles, etc.) in the 4 weeks left in the competition. Now we get down to the nitty gritty and see what everyone is really made of…because starting next week, they all have to do 2 full-length dances per week. So let’s take a look at what each of the couples has to contend with in the coming weeks, shall we?
First impressions: anyone who still has samba left to do is likely at a bit of a disadvantage, as that’s the dance that really seems to trip a lot of people up. Those who are still waiting to do Argentine tango could have a slight edge, as it seems to be a dance that can really redeem a couple when done later in the competition. I think Donald & William are likely going to struggle a bit with their remaining ballroom dances; Jaleel, Maria, and Katherine are probably going to be a bit challenged by their remaining Latin dances; and Melissa & Roshon are probably going to struggle with just about everything, since they don’t seem to be in the judges’ favor.
Jaleel & Kym – remaining dances: paso doble, waltz, quickstep, Viennese waltz, salsa, Argentine tango
I’d say Jaleel actually has one of the better sets of remaining dances left to do – it’s a good mix of Latin & ballroom, and he still has both of his “extra” dances to burn through. He seems stronger in the ballroom dances than in the Latin, so I don’t see waltz, quickstep, or Viennese waltz being a big problem; and I could see him really doing well in the paso doble, since he seems to have some anger issues he needs to work out :-). He seems to have to intensity necessary for Argentine tango, but I have to say, I’m skeptical about how proficient he’s going to be at the salsa – he’s got the personality, but I’ve noticed that his footwork tends to suffer at the expense of his showmanship…especially on more energetic dances like jive & samba.
Donald & Peta – remaining dances: samba, jive, waltz, tango, Viennese waltz, salsa
I seriously love Donald, but I think he’s got his work cut out for him the next few weeks – he’s still got two of the more difficult Latin dances left to deal with, and since he still seems to be struggling a bit with ballroom posture & frame, I think the waltz, tango, and Viennese waltz are going to be a challenge. I think he’ll have a blast with the salsa, though – I can just see the big ol’ grin on our “hunkey dunkey” football player now 😀 I’m just a bit concerned with the judges – I think they’re warming to Donald, but I don’t think they’re as willing to overlook slight errors with him as they are with Katherine, William, or even Maria. He’s gonna have to be on-point every week if he wants that “10 from Len”.
Maria & Derek – remaining dances: samba, paso doble, jive, waltz, Viennese waltz, Argentine tango
I really wish they had already gotten samba & jive out of the way earlier this season Those are two dances I just don’t see Maria having an easy time with – no one really and truly nails the samba (and along with cha-cha, it’s Derek’s LEAST favorite dance to choreograph), and with the exception of Nicole, it seems like really willowy ladies seem to have trouble with the jive, as it takes more time & effort to get those long legs kicking & flicking properly. She might struggle a bit with paso, but Derek is generally pretty good at choreographing paso doble to his partner’s strengths, so I don’t think it will be too problematic; waltz and Viennese waltz shouldn’t be a problem; and the Argentine tango could be their secret weapon – if there’s one dance that might win them the pimp spot, it’s this one, as Derek has choreographed some of the most dramatic Argentine tangos over the years.
Roshon & Chelsie – remaining dances: paso doble, jive, waltz, tango, foxtrot, Argentine tango
First things first: while I still think Roshon is technically the best dancer still left in the competition, the judges (Carrie Ann in particular) have made it pretty clear that they’re VERY eager to point out any mistakes he makes – so he’s going to have to be damn near perfect in every single one of these dances, if he wants to stick around. He’s done pretty well with the ballroom dances he’s had so far, so I think waltz & foxtrot shouldn’t be a problem; he also has a bit of an edge in that he’s already done the jive in the dance duel (and gotten some critiques from the judges on it), so he knows what he needs to work on. The potential problems I see? Paso doble, tango, and Argentine tango – all require a certain degree of maturity and masculinity to really pull of well, and as we saw with the rumba this week…Roshon seems to struggle a bit with being a manly-man. 😛
Katherine & Mark – remaining dances: cha-cha, rumba, tango, quickstep, Viennese waltz, salsa
Well, when you’re a pretty good dancer and the judges seem to fawn over your every move, it doesn’t seem like you’d really struggle with any remaining dances – and to some degree, I get the feeling Katherine’s gonna have it made from here on out. However, I see cha-cha, rumba, and salsa sticking out as potentially weaker dances for her – all require a certain degree of sexiness to pull off successfully, and I still don’t think Katherine is really comfortable with being sexy & sassy. Her samba was ok, but I never got the feeling that she was 100% committed (or comfortable) with it; and while I thought her Argentine tango was great in terms of technique, she seemed to have emotional commitment problems there as well. Can she pull off the sexiness? We’ll see. Given her really good track record with the ballroom dances, I think tango, quickstep, and Viennese waltz should be a cinch – provided that Mark can continue to be “good Mark” and avoid any gimmicks. Read more..
PopTvDotCom (who have a great reputation of being nice and loved by fans, cast, and pros alike. Be sure you are following them at You Tube), has some great footage of the couples leaving Team rehearsals last night. They are all pumped and said they have good teams (More on this later with Courtney! 😉 ). They have some great things to say about Gladys as well.
They caught Gladys and Tristan after the show as well. Gladys has a message for her fans.
Poor Maria. I feel for her as I’m a clutz too. lol 😉