Once again, I’m posting it without having a chance to watch the whole thing. I love Keo. That is all. I’ll add my comments in the comments when I do see the whole thing. My one gripe is that they mention Lea’s training – but don’t acknowledge Janel’s. Janel has training in Jazz, Hip Hop, Broadway and other styles of dance and it’s much more recent than Lea’s.
Getting excited for the pro dances tonight!! Derek and Jules with the other male pros – sounds like they might be doing something from their tour? Maybe?
Once again, comment to your hearts contents, as long as you remember the show night rules.
- Our server gets totally hosed when people sit at their computer and click “refresh” constantly. Post a comment, then walk away for five minutes so that others have a chance…and so that Courtney and I can actually post on the site.
- THIS SITE IS NOT TWITTER. Do not post like you are on twitter. You get one warning and then I put you in time out. We need context and content. Believe it or not there are a lot of people who don’t watch the east coast feed of the show, so they don’t know what the hell you’re talking about when you post a comment that says, “Boy, that sucked.” If you want to say “____ and ____’s dance was not good at all, crappy choreo” that’s fine. That would be context. It is good. Remember, if you post five one liners in five minutes, you’ve broken rule number 1.
If you want to see my predictions of who is going home, along with Courtney’s predictions, click the links. Vogue is in there too, in the comments. I think, once again, all three of us are in agreement. We’ll see.
Well, Val, you better hope Julianne doesn’t hold a grudge.
I am SO OVER the all female strip tea…I mean, dance numbers. Come on. Where are the MEN??? Read more..
I was cranky (apparently) when watching the show last night, cuz I wasn’t terribly impressed by anyone – except Bethany and Sadie, CAI’s least favorite girls. Well, I should say I *loved* Alfonso’s dance as well, but I could see what the judges were talking about. Totally don’t understand why Sadie got totally hosed. I’m thinking I’ll have to rewatch it. I think she danced better – more personality, less mugging – than Janel, and Janel is the one with training. Even though we should be calling her JanelNotADancer because it’s not getting mentioned on the show. I did see Len on All Access right after the show and he seemed to be regretting some of his marks. He only mentioned overmarking Jonathan, but he wanted to say more. Maybe about Sadie since she had so recently danced??
Anyway, let’s take a look at the Scores and percentages:
Well, I don’t know who I would put in first place, but I’m not sure it’s Lea. I love Lea, she’s a beautiful dancer and woman – but when I can see posture problems and wonder why the judges are raving, you know you got problems. Anyway, she was in jeopardy last week so she may not be getting the votes. But I do think there is enough of a cushion for her to be safe to dance another day. I also think there is little chance of Alfonso, Sadie or Bethany going anywhere – not yet anyway. Janel is likely fine as well, although I’m afraid her time will come.
That brings us to the lower half of the leaderboard. Well, lower two-thirds? Antonio I think is likely fine, for now, but only because there is much bigger cannon fodder than him. I also can’t be the only one who finds Randy hot. The low man on the totem pole, score wise, is Michael. While I agree with what many have been saying, about him not having quite the charm combined with more limited dance skill, part of me thinks that his onesie giving him a wedgie may have bought him two weeks, not just one. I could certainly be wrong, but I’m leaning toward Tavis. But let’s look and see what it will take for Michael to be safe:
See, this is where it gets tough. Michael may be more likeable than Tavis, but that four points translates to 11k votes per million votes cast. That is tough. But he has four different people to choose from when it comes to beating them. Problem is that a couple of them are really likable as well. I adore Tommy and I can’t believe he would be going anywhere. I also thought Betsey was great last night – but she’s a tad on the weird and wild side. Tavis just talks too damn much and I find him ponderous and a bit annoying. I doubt I’m alone.
So, for Michael to be safe, he needs ONE of the following:
– 11k more votes per million votes cast than either Tavis, Tommy, Betsey or Randy, OR;
– He needs about 16.6k more votes per million votes cast than Jonathan…
…and so on, as shown in Table 2.
Personally, I think he’s only within striking distance of the 11k votes of the people directly above him. But I’ve been wrong before. Let’s say that Michael is getting the votes – what do Tavis, Randy, Betsey and Tommy need to be safe??
Well, not very much at all. Each only needs ONE vote per million votes cast than the others in their little group, and all of them only need 5,525 more votes per million votes cast than Jonathan. Hell, Sadie and Antonio are in easy striking distance as well…if not for the fact of Tavis and Michael being down below them, I’d be worried for them. Bethany too. But, I don’t see anyone other than Randy, Betsey and Tommy MAYBE making the leap over Jonathan. See, the one drawback to hosing a pro (Allison – deserved or not) is that it generates sympathy votes.
Anyway, I think that Michael can only beat Tavis. I think that Tavis might beat Betsey, but I dunno. I don’t think he’s beating either Tommy or Randy, and I don’t think he’s catching Jonathan, Sadie or Antonio. I think the real bottom two is likely Michael and Tavis, but don’t be surprised to see Jonathan in jeopardy whether he’s really near the bottom or not. After Allison’s scolding and her speaking up in the Skybox, combined with the shock value of Betsey being safe again, I kinda look for the last three left standing to be Michael, Tavis and Jonathan.
There’s kind of a lot of weak dancers with great personalities, so I could be way off base here. At the end of the night, I think Tavis goes home. If it’s not him, then Michael. If there’s a shocker…Randy because he went so early in the night.
What an interesting shake up at Sports Bovada going into week 2 of Dancing With The Stars. Note how they gave Lolo Jones 7 to 1 odds last week….and well, we know how that turned out. So, when you take a look at the new odds for this week, do you think the odds makers have it right this time?
Alfonso Ribeiro 3/2
Sadie Robertson 3/1
Bethany Mota 7/1
Lea Thompson 15/2
Janel Parrish 8/1
Jonathan Bennett 10/1
Randy Couture 15/1
Tavis Smiley 15/1
Antonio Sabato Jr. 25/1
Tommy Chong 33/1
Betsey Johnson 100/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Last week’s Odds:
Alfonso Ribeiro 3/1
Janel Parrish 5/1
Antonio Sabato Jr. 6/1
Jonathan Bennett 7/1
Lolo Jones 7/1
Sadie Robertson 9/1
Bethany Mota 10/1
Tavis Smiley 12/1
Randy Couture 15/1
Lea Thompson 20/1
Betsey Johnson 33/1
Michael Waltrip 33/1
Tommy Chong 50/1
My thoughts: I think they have the odds pretty correct. Though I am not convinced on Lea yet. I think they should switch her and Randy Couture. Even though Tavis had a great showing, I thought Antonio made a better one. As for everyone else, I think they are placed about right…for now.
Let’s see what Heidi and Courtney think and be sure to let us know on your thoughts too in comments.
Heidi: Actually, unless Val picks it up (and the judges start pimping), I think Randy should be switched with *Janel*, not Lea. Lea is a dancer and a very good one, even considering her age. Her only drawback may be Artem. Artem needs to choreograph for the US audience, not the UK one. We’ll see if he gets there. I rewatched Lea’s foxtrot again and it was beautiful. I actually think they have the top 4 right, and the number 1 right. I expect if any of them have an off week the odds will change but I doubt that will change the reality. Hard to say. The youngsters don’t always get the votes. I would not be surprised to see Sadie beat both Janel and Bethany though because the girl is goofy and charming. Bethany is too, but she’s a bit quieter, I think. But…maybe that was just week 1. Derek knows what he has to do for her to stand out. If he gets the idea that she’s not? Look out. I think I would switch Tommy and Tavis as well.
Courtney: Hehehe…heavy is the crown, huh Janel & Antonio? Antonio’s drop in this week’s odds is particularly spectacular – here they had him as this big contender, and he…well, wasn’t. Just like we said And I wouldn’t rule him out as a possible early elim. And for all the boasting Val did on Twitter about how great his partner is (and for all the showmancing they did), Janel ended up looking just ok up against the likes of Bethany, Sadie, Alfonso, & even Randy. Those two have got a LOT of hard work ahead of them if they expect to have a fighting chance against some of the names I just mentioned. Still think Randy is better than they’re giving him credit for – he made a far bigger splash than Tavis, and yet they still have them neck-and-neck. Michael is not a great dancer, but I think he’s got a better chance of sticking around than Betsey – people seem to be taking a liking to him.
Wow, isn’t Karina Smirnoff gorgeous (Jim, what do you think?)? The Dancing With The Stars pro graced the red carpet at the Stars Get Lucky For Lupus: 6th Annual Poker Tournament at the Avalon in Hollywood, California. You can see more photos at the Getty links above. IE: Karina is wearing a cocktail dress by Chagoury.
Also, don’t miss seeing Karina, Randy Couture, and some of the other cast members arriving for rehearsals for Dancing With The Stars at the Daily Mail. You can also see lots of new photos of Bethany Mota and Derek Hough at Pure Derek Hough. Everyone is all smiles and striking some great poses!
It’s our resident poet, Lois!! She’s back putting week one all together with one of her fabulous poems….
SHAKING 19 SEASONS IN THE BALLROOM
19 Seasons shaking in the ballroom, spicy, peppery hot
The opening seasoned with a new feel, hitting the spot
Tom and Erin took their places as Hosts Extraordinaire
The judges became four, Julianne filled the fourth chair
The entire cast featured, with rousing spirit to Let’s Go
The time finally here for the magnificent ballroom show
The dancing pairs introduced to applause and cheers
Each season showcased many pairs through the years
The pairs shook off nerves, rising to their dancing feet
Their feet soon keeping the time to the dancing beat Read more..
I haven’t had a chance to listen to the whole thing yet, so I can’t give my full commentary.
Thank you Extra and George Pennacchio for all of these awesome interviews from last night!! The couples talk about prepping for next weeks dances and more. George may post more. Keep watching this link in case he does.
Carrie Ann Inaba has written a new blog at Parade. She rates her favorite couples on Dancing With The Stars so far in the “Feel Good” and “Sexy, Sexy” categories. So far, at the top of those lists are Alfonso Ribiero and Randy Couture. Lots more at Parade including her thoughts on Julianne Hough and pictures of her fur babies.
Speaking of her fur babies, she also recently founded the Carrie Ann Inaba Animal Project (CAIAP, caiap.org) to help cats and dogs in several different ways. “I have always wanted to build a sanctuary to give animals a safe place to live out their lives,” she explains. “Since I was a young child, this has been the dream. Starting CAIAP is all about working towards that. It will take a lot of financial support to get there, but I have faith we will.” To read an article about it, see Animal Wellness Magazine.
Great stuff! I can’t get enough. So, if you were to vote for a return to the Dancing With The Stars results shows every week (which means more pro numbers) on Tuesday nights, how would you vote? I vote YES PLEASE!