Well, this is going to be a bit different. With the exception of next week, the eliminations are going to be based on a given night’s judges scores and the previous week’s audience votes. As a result, I think Dancing by the Number is going to be a bit more predictive to the following week, as opposed to the following night. But we’ll have to see how it all plays out. As I’m sitting down to write this, I’m not sure how it’s going to go. And I may do it differently next week. I’m flyin’ by the seat of my pants here. :-)
As I said, next week is supposedly going to be the exception. According to the press release that Vogue posted (probably days ago), the week two elimination is going to take into account the first two weeks of judges scores (50%) and this week’s viewer vote (50%). As a result, what you see now in terms of score could be substantially changed by the time next week rolls around, and the votes are based on what happened this week, so that has to be considered as well.
The immediate problem with this scenario and the longer range prediction that we’ll have to make is that you’re using future dances, as opposed to dances you’ve already seen. For that reason, I’ve taken the time to find out which celebs are doing what dance next week to help with my guessing. Why? Well, it seems to me that Amber could have trouble with ballroom (who knows, using her as an example) while Bill Nye could excel at something like a Waltz. Knowing what dance they’re going to do should at least be considered when making your guess, in addition to the usual judge’s games. Below is a list of who’s dancing what and my predicted score. Note, my scores are not like Marianya’s predictions – I’m doing mine based on the dance, the pro partner, how well they did this past week, how I think they’re likely to do based on the dance they’ve been given, ringer status and the judges crack smoking habits. :-) Read more..