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SPOILERS!! DWTS Season 15, Week 6 – Who Got the Boot??

Heh. Funny story.  Courtney and I were TOTALLY convinced that the Berge was lying and no one was going home tonight.  We both thought of it and tweeted it at about the same time. The Berge was just acting too funny and there was too much inconsistent stuff being said. His explanation for no elimination next week totally doesn’t fly – makes no sense at all. We were seeing lots of discomfort from him and Brooke both. We were both in denial up until Tommy said someone had the lowest combined total.  I was in denial even after that…forgetting that it wasn’t April Fools.

Guess that was just because Sabrina was getting eliminated this season the same week she was the first time around. Yep, Sabrina has hit the road. Which kinda makes me irritated – I said at the beginning of the season that there was no reason for her to go farther this season than she did originally with Mark  – not in an all star season. But, I took comfort in her high score EVEN THOUGH the spread was not large AT ALL. I bought into the same crap that I get annoyed with some of you for spouting. That is – the spread means zilch if you aren’t getting the votes.  It does NOT mean that Kelly was getting a ton of votes – it could easily mean that Sabrina doesn’t have a fanbase at all, to speak of.  Since this is the second time this has happened to Sabrina, I think that’s the safer bet.

So how did we do?? Well, we all sucked. :-) I could leave it at that and call it a night, but….nah.

Heidi: Predicted Kelly, second choice Kirstie

Courtney: Kelly, Second choice Kirstie

Vogue: Gilles, Emmitt as the second choice

Why the hell couldn’t Vogue have been right. Then most of us on this blog would be happy as little clams.

NOTE: Tom clearly stated that Apolo was “not necessarily the bottom two”.  Which means that he probably wasn’t but isn’t getting the votes they want him to.  I’m going to slap the crap out of the first person who asks if Apolo was the bottom two.

October 30, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 15, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, tonight just pissed me off – even before we got to the word “frippery”.  Ahem. Melissa had a bench and a campfire and a whole bunch of leg lifts. Kelly had a stage coach and the standard Chmerkovskiy run up the stairs…and Shawn has frippery. In what f&*king universe does Len give Shawn and Kirstie Alley the same score – two weeks in a row. This show has jumped the shark, totally.

Okay, the truly hilarious part about “frippery” is watching Derek mouth the word silently – you could almost see him wonder what the hell that word means. LOL.  :-)

Gilles? I have this urge to punch him. Repeatedly.

My favorite dance of the night was Apolo’s – finally scored him appropriately. I do wonder if Shawn’s turn is next or if she’s running away with the votes. But I have to say – I didn’t see much difference in quality between Sabrina, Melissa and Shawn. Shawn had a tad bit of stiffness due to her knee (think she could stop screwing around with Sabrina?? Love that all those CMM girls are bffs, but come on) but still. I didn’t see a two point difference between the two of them. Instead, over the course of two weeks there is a four point difference. Total bull.  But this is all about protecting Sabrina and Melissa for a week or two.

I could go on all night. I’ll stop. I should be used to the storyboarding of this show by now.

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Well, I think Kelly might just be toast.  Perhaps they want Kirstie around so she can be the easy elimination next week when the judges pull the trigger. It’s a theory Courtney and I discussed a bit. It wouldn’t surprise me at all.  But ya know, there were so many points handed out that there are pretty small margins between all the dancers. You think Sabrina is safe?? I wouldn’t be so sure.  She probably is, but I don’t know I would put any serious cash on it. Kelly likely protects Sabrina…but we’ll see. What does Kelly need in order to be safe?? She needs ONE of the following:

–          Kelly needs 5,210 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;

–          Kelly needs 5,950 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

–          Kelly needs 8,180 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

–          Kelly needs 8,950 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

–          Kelly needs 11,200 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

–          Kelly needs 11,900 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

–          Kelly needs 14,900 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

As you can see, those are some pretty small numbers at the bottom half of the leaderboard. Unfortunately for Kelly, those lower people are Kirstie and Emmitt. That said, Kirstie has been in the bottom two and Kelly has never been tested up to this point. Can she get the votes?? I honestly don’t know. My gut says no and that they over played their showmance.  Or, are they petting Kirstie a lot because they know she’s going home and they want her to go out on a high??  Dare we hope for a Shocking Gilles elimination?? Unfortunately, probably not.

But back to Kirstie. What does she need to do to stick around?  She needs ONE of the following in order to stay tomorrow:

–          Kirstie needs Kelly to not cover the spread, OR

–          Kirstie needs 750 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 2,980 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 3,720 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 5,950 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 6,700 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

–          Kirstie needs 9,700 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

Now, if the shippers are out of control, then Emmitt could actually be the one in trouble here. Is Kirstie getting those kind of votes over someone like Emmitt?? Well, Emmitt has been fading into the woodwork – but I don’t know.  I have a hard time seeing Kelly cover that spread, so it may be irrelevant.  I have no idea what’s going to happen.

Oh Emmitt, are you getting votes? I keep forgetting you’re on the show, but that could just be me. What does Emmitt need to stick around?? ONE of the following:

–          Emmitt needs Kelly and Kirstie to not cover the spread.

–          Emmitt needs 2,230 more votes per million votes cast than Gilles, OR;

–          Emmitt needs 2,980 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, OR;

–          Emmitt needs 5,210 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR;

–          Emmitt needs 6,700 more votes per million votes cast than Apolo, OR;

–          Emmitt needs 8,950 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

As you can see, the spreads are too small. I don’t think that Shawn or Gilles are in any danger, but that the bottom two is two out of Kelly, Kirstie and Emmitt.  Based on the scoring, I’m thinking that they have Kelly down as the next boot, possibly because ratings are involved and she’s not getting votes anyway. They are at the point in the show where just about everyone is popular for one reason or another and they not only want to have the best dancers in the final six, but they want to have a guilt free elimination next week when they (the judges) have to make the call. They will be somewhat backlash free if that person is Kirstie.  That would leave them with a final six of Shawn, Apolo, Melissa, Gilles, Sabrina and possibly Emmitt.  That’s pretty damn good. But it’s an all star season – it should be.

So, I think that the bottom two are going to be Kelly and Kirstie with Kelly going home. Could be Kirstie going home, but I’m betting Kelly. I would not be surprised to be wrong.  If it’s a big surprise, I’ll do a numbers wrap up. Cuz I gotta wrap THIS up. :-)

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

PureDWTS Season 15 Week 6 – Interviews After Monday Night’s Dances (Videos)

Well, I have to say I’m not usually fond of Country music or themes, but, between the couples and the producers, last night was a great mix without twanging it too much. Let’s get straight to the couples reactions with George Pennacchio of On The Red Carpet.

First up, Cheryl and Emmitt!! George praised Emmitt for charming everyone during his solo. He tried to take advantage of the moment. He also said dancing for the All Star season this is a bigger challenge than he thought, but, he loves it and wants to do the best he can. He wants to grow. Cheryl says they have to do the best they can and just relax and have a good time if they want to go farther. They also talk on Emmitt’s family and friends back east suffering from the hurricane.

George asks Tony about his wife and family back east in the middle of the hurricane. Tony is extremely worried. He talks of his Uncle and how everyone is staying with him. His Uncle bought a generator so they’d all be ok and they could still watch the show. Melissa says they met their goal last night with their dance and scores. They just hope they can still come back next week. They are worried on the elimination. At the end, Tony gets a little upset at George for saying he only got a 29 1/2 for Melissa and that he is pouring salt in the wound being he’s already upset (can’t say I blame Tony a bit). They hug at the end.

Karina and Apolo were much happier with last night’s dance and how it turned out. Apolo says he feels stronger and they are closer. Everything was worth it for what they went through. They also talked of how much their dance for those suffering from Cancer meant to each of them.

Kelly and Val know they have an uphill battle tonight with a “slight chance of showers”. George asks them if they are dating. They say they are technically married right now, but, they are not dating. They are having fun working together and they are both passionate which they hope shows in their dances. Val also talks of how his family is safe from the hurricane. He hopes there wasn’t any damages to their businesses because he heard they were under water.

Read more..

I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

DWTS 15, Week 6 – Power Rankings

Well, that was interesting :-P I guess that’s with the overall feeling I’m left with after country week – there were some good dances, some not-so-good dances, and just some general weirdness.  I feel like we saw, quite possibly, the messiest group dance in the history of the show – as some of you saw me say on Twitter, I thought this looked like it was just thrown together this morning, and that no one really & truly knew the choreography.  The solos were an interesting mix of desperate, messy, ambitious, and silly…and at the end of it all, I’m left with the same theory that Heidi & I kicked around earlier today upon hearing about the “judges’ score only” elimination next week: that they’re trying to subtly nudge Kelly out this week so that they can send Kirstie packing next week with a clear conscience and without a ton of backlash.  But let’s get on with the rankings, shall we?

1.) Sabrina & Louis – I’ll admit, I really enjoyed this rumba. Sabrina is really starting to grow on me, and maybe a part of me empathized with her struggles with a drug-addicted ex-boyfriend – I myself am still reeling from uncle’s passing earlier this year, due to a drug overdose.  I guess I just understand how she could feel so hopeless and agonized in that situation – and I think it reflected in her dancing.  Loved the solo, which was a nice combination of hurt and joy.  I actually thought Sabrina’s legs looked pretty damn good in this dance, and she seemed to handle all the passes & turns with finesse.  There also seemed to be a nice balance of light & shade – the dramatic, fast passes & turns contrasted nicely with the slow portions where she took the time to finish her lines.  If I had to pick one flaw, though – I think there was a trick midway through the routine that didn’t seem to come off quite right, and it looked like Louis was just struggling to lift her butt off the floor.  For that reason, I would have probably given it a 29 – but overall, I liked it :-) I think she’s got a pretty decent cushion from elimination this week – at the top of the leaderboard, she’s a full 10 points ahead of Kelly.

2.) Apolo & Karina – FINALLY!!! A breakthrough performance that the judges finally recognize just how GOOD these two are.  Admittedly, I was skeptical (and rather pessimistic) heading into this week, because I hated the song they picked and I was prepared for the judges to just kinda nitpick them to death again.  But man – Apolo seems to really handle the ballroom dances with incredible ease, and I love the way he extends his arms.  And while I was worried the emotion in this one would be kind of over-the-top, I actually thought it had a good degree of restraint, and was more celebratory than sad.  Just a lovely dance :-) And if we’re going to split hairs about the two extra points from the group dance (which I don’t really feel like complaining about too much, because it literally only makes about a .33% difference…basically peanuts), I think Apolo & Karina were the only two that really seemed hungry for the extra points and seemed to cram as many cool tricks into their solo as humanly possible – for that reason alone, I probably would have given them the points, but again…it really doesn’t matter a whole lot this week.  I feel like these two finally have a good dance (and the 2nd highest point total) to keep them relevant – it’s nice to know they’re most likely safe tomorrow night ;-)

3.) Shawn & Derek – Very cute & Western-y, just as I was told it would be :-) And it was fun watching Shawn cut loose and play a sassy little Daisy Duke character in her solo.  But here’s the thing: I actually agree with Len that there was a little too much country, and I could have done with a bit more regular cha-cha steps.  However, I feel like if they were going to call Shawn & Derek out for “too much country western”, then they should have also called Melissa & Tony out for what felt like a TON of ballet in their Viennese waltz…and at the end of the night, it was still country night, so I felt like they did have an obligation to put a certain amount of country steps into that cha-cha.  So at the end, I guess I feel kind of ambivalent about the whole thing – not really Shawn’s best dance, but not her worst, and her song was wonky, and she was kind of injured.  I’m sure she’ll be ok this week, though – and for a few weeks to come.  Thought their solo in the country group dance could have been better and a bit more ambitious, but in the end, like I said – it really doesn’t matter a whole lot.  I’m definitely looking forward to seeing what Derek comes up with for this mysterious “dance fusion” we’ve been hearing about – it sounds like something that’s definitely in his wheelhouse. Read more..

October 29, 2012 I Written By

Ultrasound sales specialist by day, semi-knowledgeable DWTS fan by night...with a smattering of hair & makeup enthusiast, occasional model, and crazy cat lady peppered in to make things REALLY interesting ;-) I might pee my pants in happiness if Donnie Wahlberg ever does DWTS - or if they ever use "Sunglasses at Night" as a paso doble. Check out some of my other work at pureamericasgottalent.com!

Sabrina Bryan Chats On DWTS, Louis Van Amstel Talks Of The Upcoming Eliminations And More

Sabrina Bryan answers questions from the fans about the best part about being on Dancing With The Stars this season. She talks about what she’s doing when the show is over too.

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Louis has written a new blog for ABC as well. He talks all about last week’s dances. Then he gives a preview for he and Sabrina’s Rumba tonight. He also talks of camera blocking yesterday, the camaraderie between the couples, and how the eliminations will take place tomorrow night and the coming weeks. Read the last paragraph carefully below for how only the judges will get their say for who goes home next week. We don’t get to vote as Courtney and Heidi have been reporting to us.

With this week’s Rumba, we will show a very different side. Our song touches Sabrina in a way that exposes her vulnerability. Even though she’s scared about opening up like that, it’s such a beautiful side to see from her. As in real life, love is not always about being sexy or lovey dovey, it’s about the ups and downs between two people that love each other and the raw emotions. Our Rumba is more like “The Notebook” rather than a shallow love story.

Yet again, the production this week has gone all out. All the couples I’ve seen doing their camera blocking yesterday have beautiful set pieces. A big time thank you is necessary to the producers for giving us so much more freedom and opportunities than in any other season. This week’s theme is “Country Week” and it’s going to be off the charts. I love all of these new themed weeks. It’s so exciting to have Big & Rich, Cowboy Troy, and none other than Taylor Swift perform on Monday and Tuesday. You don’t want to miss seeing the entire show!

You might wonder if the camaraderie between the couples is sincere when you watch the show on TV. I can tell you that it is and in my opinion, that’s the part that makes this season so special. Everyone is so nice to each other and helps each other out when needed. True friendships are being built. Yes, it’s a competition, but everyone focuses on their own dances and tries their hardest to bring their A game every week. It’s all about personal growth and wanting everybody to be at their personal best. It’s truly the healthiest way to compete. You guys, on the other hand, can fight on the message boards and so can the judges over their scores…haha.

It was so nice last week to have no elimination, but it makes this week even more nerve wracking. I can’t even begin to talk about the elimination process in week 7 and week 8. Actually, let’s talk about it since it’s different almost every week now.

This week’s elimination is based on scores and votes from last week and this week. Next week (week 7), there’s no Tuesday show due to the election. This means there will be an elimination at the end of Monday night’s show (Nov. 5), which is based only on judges’ scores. Week 8 is back to normal, but we will have the dreaded double elimination again. Are you still with me?

:?

ADDING: And here is an interview in the rehearsal studio as well….

I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

DWTS All Stars, Week 5 – The Cheesecake Awards!!

Word to the wise: If you want to see something in the Cheesecake Awards, DON’T say so. Don’t tell us what you expect to see. Because if you do, we just might think it’s too obvious or decide that we don’t want anyone to expect anything – and not include it.

Just sayin’. :-)  The Cheesecake is on the small side this week – we have discovered that most of the cheesy goodness is in a results show. :-)

Beware: Heidi’s Mean Streak is wider than usual this week. :-)

Tom Bergeron Line O’ the Night: “By the way, tonight Carrie Ann Plays the Iceberg” (ref. Titanic) in reference to her comments regarding Shawn and Derek’s supposed lift.

Heidi: That was very clever. I love me some Tom. Even CAI couldn’t help but laugh at herself after that one and Len loved it as well. How is he so quick?? I’d be standing there saying, “Bitch.”

Courtney: For someone that gets all OTT in her praise like CAI often does, she’s also a colossal buzzkill – and nothing says buzzkill like a humongous ocean liner getting obliterated by an iceberg.  And Carrie Ann, like an iceberg, is chilly, jagged, and is useless as a judge on a reality tv dancing show :-) Read more..

October 28, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Louis Van Amstel, Sabrina Byran Preview Rumba And “Full On Country Hoedown” Group Dance

Louis van Amstel tells KTLA that Sabrina Bryan is a ‘perfect work of clay’ to work with. He loves her passion. He says he and the other pros have had to step up their games because the celebrities are all so good which is why he loves this season so much. There is “one” pro he’d love to beat, but, he doesn’t name names (does his name start with a “D”, Louis? I bet so). He and Sabrina run through last week’s dances. They also talk on this week’s group dance. They say the dynamic between Kirstie and Maks is “hysterical”. It’s going to be a “full on country hoe down” and “so fun”. More in detail below….

Read more..

October 27, 2012 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

DWTS Season 15 Las Vegas Odds Going Into Week 6: Agree or Disagree?

What a difference a week of dances make on Dancing With The Stars again. The Odds Makers at Sports Bovada have placed their bets again. First, check out Shawn Johnson! In all of the time I’ve been writing these odds up have I ever seen such strong odds favoring someone and rightfully so. Shawn is off the hook. Emmitt Smith has risen up the ladder to second place again. Apolo and Kelly have both fallen some. Note too how the odds makers are even more convinced this week that Kirstie Alley is going home which I still think they are wrong about. Same with Sabrina. I think it should be Kelly at the bottom this week.

Shawn Johnson 1/1
Emmitt Smith 7/2
Gilles Marini 9/2
Apolo Anton Ono 6/1
Kelly Monaco 10/1
Melissa Rycroft 33/1
Sabrina Bryan 50/1
Kirstie Alley 75/1

Last week’s Las Vegas Odds going into Week 5 to compare:

Shawn Johnson 7/5
Apolo Anton Ono 4/1
Emmitt Smith 4/1
Kelly Monaco 5/1
Gilles Marini 6/1
Melissa Rycroft 25/1
Sabrina Bryan 50/1
Kirstie Alley 66/1

So, what do you think? Are the odds makers in Las Vegas wrong or right this time? Let’s get Miss Heidi’s and Courtney’s thoughts….

Courtney: These oddsmakers seem to get far too influenced by the ups and downs of each week.  I think it takes at least 2 weeks of really good (or really bad) performances to see a pattern that could genuinely affect the odds.  I also think the split performance nights may have negatively affected certain individuals while helping others – Emmitt may have had the most memorable individual performance of the first night, but it pales in comparison to every routine we saw on Tuesday night; yet he got so hyped and overscored on Monday night (and everyone on Tuesday night, with the exception of Sabrina, got low-balled) that it gives the impression that he’s a legitimate frontrunner, and he rises back to 2nd place – which I highly doubt.  Likewise, 3 of the 4 couples that danced on Tuesday night seemed to get lowballed, and I think that negatively affected their odds – even though I think it was kind of obvious they had the superior dances.  And then there’s Shawn – what exactly did she do this week that suddenly made her a sure thing? Like Vogue, I also think they may be underestimating the rebound effect of Kirstie’s fans – even if a couple is ultimately destined for the chopping block, they often seem to experience a surge in votes the week after they’re in the bottom 2.  I think that could happen for Kirstie this week…and I think the most likely candidates to take her place in the bottom 2 are Kelly & Melissa.  But who knows – this season is weird.  It makes my head spin :-P

Heidi: Um, no. I’m still of the opinion that Apolo will ultimately edge out Shawn.  And I think he will definitely edge out Gilles. I was going to say that I think they have the bottom three all wrong, but then I remember these are odds to WIN. I think Emmitt and Kelly are both too high, Sabrina a touch too low. If the standings remain the same this week, I think Kirstie beats Kelly. Courtney’s right, though – this season is CRAZY. I think the closest things to a “sure thing” are Apolo and Shawn – and if the judges keep on with the crack, I could change my mind about both.  The rest? I hope like hell Gilles is a “shocking” elimination but that’s about it. I would hate to be an odds maker because it’s too hard to call the finale. Maybe that’s why the called Shawn even money – the rest are too fluid and uncertain.

October 26, 2012 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

Dancing with the Stars Season 15, Week 6 – Who’s Dancing What…and When??

Country week!!  Not my favorite genre – and apparently Shawn loves it. It’s an Iowa thing?

I’m told that the scoring has been changed up again. :::rolls eyes:::  Now you can apparently get 2, 4, or 6 points for your solo in the group dance – before it was just 2 extra bonus points.  Let me guess…Gilles, Sabrina and….should be Shawn, but will it be?? Possibly Melissa. Whoever needs the most help with the votes. You heard it here first. :-)  And no, we don’t know what the rest of the couples get, if anything.

ETA: I LOVE me some Blake Shelton. But not because of country music, but because of his bromance with Adam Levine. :-)  A little birdie told me that Gilles showed up late to team dance rehearsal in a rhinestone cowboy vest & chaps…because he must be the center of attention, and show everyone else up. At all times. Courtney co-opted my standard response to anything Gilles on this one and said: “F@#ker.” Those of you who follow me on twitter know this is my saying for Gilles. ;-) On the other end of the spectrum is Derek, who apparently did an entire interview during the rehearsal in a southern accent, cracking Shawn up the whole time.

ETA2: Gee, let me guess – a faux tractor with Gilles doing hip thrusts on top, waving a cowboy hat, while Peta gyrates somewhere in the background. :::rolls eyes:::  Anyone wanna bet there is a tractor and a vest involved?? Cuz we gotta have a spectacle so we can have the “best ever Cha Cha unlike that Shawn who can only do tricks.” (end sarcasm…for now)

ETA3: Someone tell me if Sabrina has a good song or not – don’t think I’ve ever heard of it.

ETA4: Somebody make note of this auspicious day, because I, Courtney, am completely speechless.  Apparently the DWTS Instagram is correct & Gilles does have Shania Twain – which makes no sense whatsoever to me because the song is “Man! I Feel Like a Woman”.  Is Gilles going to be cross-dressing for his cha-cha? I’ve already heard the choreography is pretty low-brow – once again, he & Peta are going for the raunch, and they’ll probably get 10’s for it.  At least I’ve heard that Shawn & Derek’s cha-cha is fairly cute & Western-y.  I may need to self-medicate before Monday’s show… Read more..

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 15, Week 5 – Dancing by the Numbers

This week, this particular post doesn’t mean a hill of beans because, as I’m sure you’ve all figured out by now, there was no elimination. But I’ve had a few requests for it so you can see how your favorites are doing. EVERYTHING could change on Monday night and I have some confidence that it will. I predict Sabrina stays in first place to get her past this particular week – and maybe past the following week. I think that Kirstie and Kelly – and maybe Melissa – are the next designated people who are considered disposable by the producers/judges.

Yes. Heidi is having a very cynical week. :-)

Anyway, let’s take a look at the numbers for this week:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Oh dear, everyone favorite over the top showmance which gets more forced by the day is in serious trouble. At least, this week. You’ll notice that everyone but Kirstie has at least a percentage point lead on her. That translates to more votes than I would be comfortable with if I were them – roughly 10,000. What does Kelly have to do to stick around beyond this pretend elimination week? ONE of the following:

–          Kelly needs to get 2,250 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;

–           Kelly needs to get 10,150 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

–          Kelly needs to get 11,250 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, Apolo, Melissa or Gilles, OR;

–          Kelly needs to get 15,750 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

Kelly has been relatively protected up to now by people with either much lower scores or fanbase issues of their own. But that protection is largely gone this week. Lots of people would be tempted to say that Kirstie is going to go because she was in the bottom two last week with Bristol. But Kirstie beat the spread on Bristol that was about three times the spread between her and Kelly. This is the part of the all star season where it gets really hard, cuz I’m really not sure if Kelly’s got juice or not. I’m inclined to say “not” – when compared to Kirstie. And I don’t think there is anyone else she can catch. Don’t give me crap about Soap fanbases – soaps are being cancelled left and right. Not to mention that it’s all relative – someone has to go, so you have to consider if other fanbases are bigger or more passionate.

But let’s assume that Kelly finds a miraculous way to safety. What does Kirstie needs need in order to stick around??  She needs ONE of the following:

–          Kirstie needs to get 7,900 more votes per million votes cast than Emmitt, OR;

–          Kirstie needs to get 11,250 more votes per million votes cast than Shawn, Apolo, Melissa or Gilles, OR;

–          Kirstie needs to get 13,500 more votes per million votes cast than Sabrina.

Based on those numbers, if there was an elimination this week I think it easily comes down to Kelly and Kirstie. I think the only other two people in potential danger would be Melissa and Sabrina – but the margins are too great this week. I think. We won’t really know until it happens. The path forward from here is really not clear. Emmitt has been fading into the woodwork lately, so it’s possible he’s in the lower tier as well.

But, when asked to make a guess, my guess is that Kelly would go home. If not her, Kirstie. Next week, we add a ton of points and everything can change. In any case, you can be sure the margins get smaller.

 

October 25, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)