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Dancing with the Stars Season 19 – “What do you mean I’m a ringer??” Update

Introduction

A couple of seasons ago, I created a set of criteria with which to measure the benefits some dancers on DWTS have compared to the other dancers. That is, ringers versus non-ringers. I attempted to be as logical and scientific as possible, although it’s impossible to remove all subjectivity from the issue. But it’s far better than simply saying “so and so isn’t a ringer, IMO”. In your opinion? If your opinion is purely subjective with no effort at logical or rational thought, then what good is it??

No good at all, actually. The original series sprung from an effort to debunk the old, tired and stupid claim that the only reason Derek does well is because he gets all the good partners and no one else gets them. Utter BS, of course. It would be a good idea to read that series before starting this one as I can’t guarantee that I’ll include all the same rationale this second time around and I don’t take well to discussing a subject with someone who is so rude as to not read the blogs.

Ringers Part One

Ringers Part Two

Ringers Part Three

Of course, certain people who didn’t like the results of that research tried desperately to turn the argument around and claim: “Well, Derek never gets any ‘bad’ partners, like Kate Gosselin”. Um, there has only been ONE Kate Gosselin and ONE Wendy Williams – it’s not at all like everyone is getting those kinds of partners except Derek. Tony is the only one who gets them and there’s good reason for that one, I would say.  But that’s a different subject altogether. :-) …Read more

September 14, 2014 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS 16 Pros: Food for Thought – Did Maks Try to “Pull an Edyta”?

I know we’re all still reeling from the whiplash of Pro Watch – old pros are sitting this one out, entirely new pros are being brought in, troupe members are getting promoted, and the status of some pros seems to change from “out” to “in” and back again on a daily basis.  The general question on everyone’s lip: “WTF is going on at DWTS??!!!”

While I don’t have a ton of insider info about what’s going on with the casting (even the insiders seem to be somewhat in the dark this season!), I do have a theory or two, and some knowledge of previous seasons to help back up said theories – and I’m about to share one with you that may or may not put things in perspective, and may or may not help ease your concerns…but it’s one that at least makes some sense, given what we’ve seen unfolding the past week or so and what we know of previous seasons.  Take it with a biiiiig grain of salt, as I’m not 100% confident in the veracity of some of the claims made in it.  And Maks fans of the hypersensitive persuasion should probably just stop reading right now.  :-)

First, let’s go back in time to about 2.5 years ago – the week or so leading up to the season 11 cast annoucement.  Lacey had tweeted something cranky (and characteristically “Lacey”) about not being part of that season’s cast, and we were led to believe that she would be sitting that season out.  About 36-48 hours later, we were smacked in the face by the news that Edyta had suddenly quit DWTS, and Lacey was then excitedly tweeting that she was back in as one of the pros.  What happened??? Allegedly (and I’m using this as a precaution, as the info I’m about to share has been culled from multiple sources – some more credible than others, and not all of it matches up), Edyta had tried leveraging in her negotiations with TPTB – some think she was upset that her husband Alec wasn’t getting asked back as a pro, some say she was upset about the partner she got (which confuses me – read on), some say she was holding out for more $$$, who knows.  Whatever it was, I guess Edyta tried to throw her weight around as the longest-tenured pro on the show (at the time) and gave the producers an ultimatum: “You give me [insert demand here] or I quit.” To which the producers replied, “K, bye then!” I’m guessing Edyta wasn’t expecting them to call her bluff, and she also doesn’t strike me as the type who will swallow their pride easily, so of course, she had to follow through on her promise, and out she went. Read more..

February 25, 2013 I Written By

Ultrasound sales specialist by day, semi-knowledgeable DWTS fan by night...with a smattering of hair & makeup enthusiast, occasional model, and crazy cat lady peppered in to make things REALLY interesting ;-) I might pee my pants in happiness if Donnie Wahlberg ever does DWTS - or if they ever use "Sunglasses at Night" as a paso doble. Check out some of my other work at pureamericasgottalent.com!

DWTS14: A Refresher on the Importance of Running Order

Since there still seems to be some confusion on what running order positions are “good” or “bad” (even though I feel like Heidi & I have repeated ourselves ad infinitum), I thought now might be a good time to give everyone a crash course in the “Courtney & Heidi Theory of Running Order” :-) I did more of an experimental post about running order back in 2010, but since then Heidi & I have honed our theory a bit more and it’s time for an update!

For those of you just wanting the Cliff’s Notes version, here’s the basic gist: the beginning, middle, and end of the show are the best positions, and it’s better to dance in the 2nd half of the show than the first.  And why is that, you ask? The answer: ratings. If you’re still interested, read on…

So what makes going 1st an advantage? In theory, you’ve got the attention of all the folks that tuned in at 8 PM, before they lose interest and change the channel.  The 8 PM-9PM time slot is quite possibly the most competitive weeknight time slot – most networks try to put their big-hitters with broad-spectrum appeal in this slot, as it’s the hour that families are most likely to be watching TV together, before the kids (and sometime grandma & grandpa) go to bed.  It therefore stands to reason that TPTB would want to put a popular, attention-grabbing couple at the top of the first hour to try and hold viewers’ interest and keep them from changing the channel – say, to How I Met Your Mother on CBS or The Voice on NBC.  How does it benefit the couple? Obviously they get some good exposure, but it also tends to benefit them in the voting.  While we diehard viewers may start voting for a couple at the beginning of the show that may not actually be dancing until the end of the show, the average viewer may not start voting until they see a couple that really impresses them – my mom tends to vote this way.  She’ll see a couple that she really likes, and even though the show might not be over yet, she’ll use all her votes on that particular couple (sometimes she’ll regret it later when she sees a couple she likes even more, but that’s neither here nor there ;-)).  Going first can help a couple snare some impulse votes, before a viewer sees anyone else and change their mind.  It also tends to keep them memorable, since they’re the first couple the viewers see.
Read more..

March 22, 2012 I Written By

Ultrasound sales specialist by day, semi-knowledgeable DWTS fan by night...with a smattering of hair & makeup enthusiast, occasional model, and crazy cat lady peppered in to make things REALLY interesting ;-) I might pee my pants in happiness if Donnie Wahlberg ever does DWTS - or if they ever use "Sunglasses at Night" as a paso doble. Check out some of my other work at pureamericasgottalent.com!

DWTS Celebrities: “What do you mean, I’m a Ringer?” Part 3

This is the 3rd and final part of the series where I take a look at the partners the pros have had and their “ringer” status. Part 1 discusses how I define a ringer – you can find it here —> I’m a Ringer?? Part 2 discusses the female pros and their partners and how I labeled them – I think it’s pretty clear that they’ve not been quite as blessed as the men. Reasons for that should be self evident – female celebrities are more likely to have some sort of dance experience, even if it is taking ballet or tap as a child.  NOTE: This was mostly written before the pairings were announced for Season 14 – those pairings certainly change the game for lots of pros. Lots of potential ringers on this season.

I strongly recommend you read the first two parts before you comment – I don’t want to have to reiterate everything I wrote MONTHS ago. :-)  Also, be wise and don’t complain about the length, admit that you didn’t read it all, and then argue with me – that will just earn you scorn and an eye roll.  I know this is long – I considered breaking it into two parts, but then I figured it’s still long in two parts. People will either be interested or they won’t.  :::shrug:::  Also take note that I, personally, don’t care about ringers themselves. I think a season without them is deadly.  What I DO care about is hypocrisy, revisionist history and the fairy tales that some like to spread about who has had ringers and who hasn’t.

From where I sit, there are two types of ringers – and then there’s just being blessed. Fanbase ringer (ie. Donny Osmond, etc.) or Experience Ringer (Mel B, Nicole, Sabrina, etc.), and lucky get (Lalia, Brooke, Gilles, JR). Just because someone happens to be a great dancer doesn’t mean they are a ringer. When someone is blessed with a partner who can dance, it doesn’t mean they were handed a ringer. That particular argument is so illogical that it’s hard for me to take seriously. If they actually seriously auditioned people to be on this show by making them dance with a pro for an hour or two, it would be understandable. But they don’t stand people in a room with a pro dancer and then say, “wow, she’s got some moves, let’s give her to Maks” or “she sucks, lets give her to Tony.” It doesn’t work that way. If it did, they wouldn’t be able to get people on the show. And can you imagine a pro like Tony sticking around if that was the approach they took?

As it happens, and as many people connected to the show have reiterated, the process of how a pro gets a celebrity often has to do with height, personality, looks, chemistry and the cast as a whole…and this becomes obvious as the show progresses. They are actually quite good at matching people up. I would imagine they give this a lot of consideration as it impacts, or has the potential to impact, ratings.  You’re going to try to avoid having a bunch of pairings that make people go “eeewww” or get seriously pissed off. I think you need to limit that to one couple per season. Can you imagine what it would be like for every pro on a season to have a partnership similar to that of Hope and Maks??  I would want to stab my eyes out with a fork if they were ALL like that and there was no Carson/Anna or David/Kym. Seriously – think about it.  So, it may be good to have ONE Maks/Hope – gives people (me and Courtney) something to talk about, rant about, get passionate about, etc. (This is separate from a discussion of whether Maks finally went too far or not – I don’t think that’s what the producers intended.) Read more..

March 11, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Celebrities: “What do you mean, I’m a Ringer?” Part 2

This is Part 2 in what will likely be a 3-part series. If you want to read Part 1, you can find it here —> I’m a Ringer??

Well, let me tell you, researching these former contestants was not particularly enjoyable. But, I felt like some research had to go into this in order to try to be somewhat informed and to remove some of the subjectivity. Not all of it can be removed, but I tried.

How did I get my results?

For each celebrity who was *possibly* experienced or popular, I focused research on their web sites (if available), their Wiki pages, and YouTube videos.  Then there were google searches. Yikes.  If a celebrity was clearly not a ringer in any way shape or form (ie Football players, rodeo riders, race car drivers) I did not look into their background any further. I did spend some time on this, but since I have another job that takes my time, it’s possible I missed something. :-) BUT, just because you don’t agree with my rankings, it doesn’t mean I DID miss something. Just sayin’. :-)

Determining if someone is actually a fanbase ringer is rather difficult as well. My metric for that determination is: Is this person well known and well loved by the biggest DWTS demographic – that is women aged about 30 to 65. These are the people most likely to watch the show and vote.  Where it gets tricky is guys like Joey Lawrence and Ian Zeiring – it’s guys like this that caused me the most pain.  Why? Well, because my brain is saying, “Nah” but my gut is saying “Just because you’re not a fan doesn’t mean they don’t have sizable fanbases. :-) So, at the end of the day, I decided for my purposes that for them to be a fanbase ringer, it had to be OBVIOUS.  That is – if I know they’re super popular, then they probably really are.  If I don’t really know much about them….then they probably aren’t. I fit the demographic, after all. :-) Read more..

September 17, 2011 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Who Wore it Better? Part XII – More from Season 12

So the addition of the troupe this past season did have one unexpected positive effect: even more costume dittos! Which makes my job a bit easier ;-) And I’m noticing the costume department has a special affinity for red – lots & lots of sparkly, red, fringy, feathery stuff… Read more..

August 5, 2011 I Written By

Ultrasound sales specialist by day, semi-knowledgeable DWTS fan by night...with a smattering of hair & makeup enthusiast, occasional model, and crazy cat lady peppered in to make things REALLY interesting ;-) I might pee my pants in happiness if Donnie Wahlberg ever does DWTS - or if they ever use "Sunglasses at Night" as a paso doble. Check out some of my other work at pureamericasgottalent.com!

DWTS 12 End of Season Award Winners – Which Musical Guest Was the Best?

John: Seriously. How do you decide on this one?

Vogue: I have to say this was kind of lackluster Season for entertainment in my opinion. I was hoping for Katy Perry, Rihanna, or Lady Gaga. But, from the choices, I picked New Kids On The Block/Backstreet Boys. I so loved the boy bands and it was great seeing them again. I loved Hanson too!

Courtney: This category drives me absolutely NUTS because there’s so damn many musical acts each season, and a ridiculous number of write-in votes.  People, please – Josh Groban’s name is spelled like that, and there are no alternative spellings.  And whoever wrote in “Hanson FTW” – you irk me. :-) Echoing John’s sentiments, I’m a little perplexed as to how Adele managed to win this one.  Don’t get me wrong, I LOVE Adele, but she only sang one song (with laryngitis) and was forced to bow out of the second one due to aforementioned laryngitis.  It was an ok performance – but not her best.  But alas, Adele is popular with our readers – laryngitis or not! I’m with Vogue on this one…I’m such a boy band fangirl, and I’m ridiculously excited to see NKOTBSB here in Indy later this month ;-) I actually thought they put on the best “show” of all the musical acts – you could tell they had put some thought into their performance, and hadn’t just flown in at the last minute and been like “Ok, we’re here, give us some dancers and we’ll do a quick run-through.” Hanson was a nice addition to the performance show – definitely better lead-in music than Harold Wheeler’s many variations on the DWTS theme.  I really enjoyed Michael & Delta as well – wish I could say the same for the Black Eyed Peas.  But you guys already know how I feel about them – let’s just say I found a very apt comment from someone on Twitter that likened them to a venereal disease. ;-) Jennifer & Toby seemed a little unenthusiastic to me, and I thought Chris Brown did ok given the firestorm surrounding his performance.  Rounding out the dreaded write-in category: Josh/Johs/Joe Groban/Grobin/Grodin/etc. (8), David Garrett (3), Katherine Jenkins (1), Pitbull/Neyo/Nayer (1), Selena Gomez (1), Pia Toscano *snicker* (1), and “they all sucked” (1).  One performance I kinda wish someone had mentioned – James Blunt.  I thought his performance with Val & Daria dancing was one of the most entertaining for me, and seriously – that guy has come a long way since his first album, when he was a total Debbie Downer.  Did he get some action or something? The dude has rainbows coming out of his ass these days! :-)

Marianya: Courtney, Vogue… I guess I’m jumping on that fangirly boyband bandwagon. The most memorable musical act for me was NKOTBSB hands down. I mean it seems like it was prepared and created for the DWTS stage as opposed to just something tossed together or taken from a past tour act, that I likey, I likey a lot.

Heidi: I was inordinately fond of that one Hanson boy’s suspenders. :-)  I don’t know WHY I like such things or why I get fascinated by them. :-) In any case, I found Hanson’s presence on that one performance show lent the show a new and different feel from usual. Now, I think I generally HATE theme nights on principle, but I liked their inclusion and I loved some of the songs they played. I dunno, it was new and different in a way that I liked for a change. :-)

July 20, 2011 I Written By

Ultrasound sales specialist by day, semi-knowledgeable DWTS fan by night...with a smattering of hair & makeup enthusiast, occasional model, and crazy cat lady peppered in to make things REALLY interesting ;-) I might pee my pants in happiness if Donnie Wahlberg ever does DWTS - or if they ever use "Sunglasses at Night" as a paso doble. Check out some of my other work at pureamericasgottalent.com!

Pure Dancing With The Stars 2011 – When Judges Have To Humiliate

I can’t sit back and let this go without letting off some steam. Maybe you need to do so as well?

I just can’t get over how mean the judges were to Ralph again last night. All Season they’ve been real bears to him as we’ve all commented. But, last night cut the cake with Bruno. To say Karina “was being to rough with her p***y” and then to furthermore say to Ralph, “You definitely went for a bad ass salsa. Are you wearing extra large diapers?” What the ???

If there was ever a time I wish they could penalize the judges, now is the time. What’s sad is these celebrities don’t take on this show to get humiliated and neither do the pros. Last year, Bruno did the same thing to Michael Bolton and several times. When is enough “enough” already?

I think it’s time Bruno was disciplined. Yes, feel free to have an opinion and critique a dance for how you see fit. But, please do NOT humiliate!! Have some class and be constructive about it!!

After last night, I wouldn’t be surprised if they ever get a celebrity to sign up again for this show.

You really have to give it to Ralph and Karina though. They didn’t argue and they took the abuse. All Karina said was “Wow wow” and tried to shield Ralph from what Bruno was saying.

If Ralph is picked to leave tonight, it’s going to be hard to watch him leave like this. He doesn’t deserve it!

(Heidi’s Note: No one deserves that kind of treatment, regardless of how well they danced. Obscene. And it takes a lot for me to see obscenity..)

May 17, 2011 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

Pure DWTS – New Years Dancing Media

Just a few things to share with you on this day before New Years Eve. First up, Cheryl Burke is interviewed by CBS Sunday in San Francisco on her dance role in “Forever Tango”. Luis Bravo (the creator and director) is also interviewed. The clips of Cheryl dancing look fantastic.

From the Bay Sunday facebook page, here the two are again;

Louis posted this picture on his twitter of himself, Jay D Schwartz, Karina, Jonathan, and Anna in Cabo San Lucas, Mexico celebrating Anna’s birthday at the Casa Dorada Hotel. The four dancers will be performing for the The Barefoot Formal NYE Event on New Year’s Eve. What a beautiful place to spend the holiday.

Speaking of holiday, Maks and Derek are having the time of their lives. Maks has been travelling all through out Europe as most of you know who are following him at Twitter. He’s been posting pictures every time he changes destinations. Rumor has it that Derek has been in Europe as well and is now in S. Africa. Other than this tweet, nothing can be verified and this is all we have from him. Heidi HELP!! *cries* lol (Heidi: LOL – a number of fans have been photographed with Cheryl Cole in South Africa and they all said Derek is with her – it’s all over twitter now. Poor Derek, breaking some Cheryl fans’ hearts – they turn ugly when that happens. LOL)


Hey everyone hope you all have had a great Christmas … My belly is full how’s about yours .
@OfficialDHough
Derek Hough

From all the reality Shows this past year, who was the judgiest judge or crankiest contestant of the year? Well, TV Squad has picked Bruno as one of the crankiest judges. You can see who else made the cut and why at the link. (personally, I would have chosen Carrie Ann over Bruno as most cranky!)

Michael Bolton Demands Apology from ‘Dancing’ Judge: On ‘Dancing With the Stars,’ judge Bruno Tonioli called Michael Bolton’s jive with Chelsea Hightower the worst “in 11 seasons.” Bolton was stunned by Tonioli’s harsh tone and felt the Italian judge “let everybody down,” including his 90-year-old mother, who was sitting in the audience. “You heard the tone. Even Len [Goodman] stopped him and said, ‘That’s inappropriate,'” he said. “I think he should apologize publicly and he should be reprimanded for it.”

Ok, that is all for now. Happy New Year Everyone and don’t forget to dance like there is no tomorrow. ;) xxx

December 30, 2010 I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

DWTS Season 11 – The Myth of Bristol

Okay, I threatened to do this a while ago and now I’m doing it. I’m putting my fingers to the key board to answer the question – how did Bristol last as long as she did? Was it really a Tea Party, or just dumb luck and silly judges?

This post isn’t really even about Bristol herself – it’s about the judges scores versus the voting. People always claim that the judges scores mean nothing. Well, bull, they’re worth 50% – it’s the judges who decide whether they mean very little or if they mean A LOT. The way the judges scored most of this season, they were irrelevant. When push came to shove, in the finale, they got their act together. I argue that it should happen sooner – like Week 7 or so.

Okay, with that out of the way, let’s get back to business with a recap:

Week 1 – The Departure of The Hoff

I consider this the first, and one of the bigger, shocks of the season.  But maybe German’s didn’t realize they can indeed vote on DWTS, if they are properly educated on how to do so. :-) Anyway, the bottom scorers this week were:

– The Hoff, 15
– The Sitch, 15
– Margaret, 15
– Michael, 16
– Florence, 18
– Bristol, 18

So, that one really shouldn’t have been a shock, as he was one of the low scorers.  No surprise that Bristol stayed, much surprise that Margaret stayed. :-)  Bristol had a whole lot of people with lower scores (and less infamy) than her.

Week 2 – Dog Houses are very, very bad.

Michael Bolton and Chelsie Hightower exit the competition after a thorough humiliation. One that was hard to watch indeed.  The bottom scorers were:

– Michael, 12
– Margaret, 18
– The Situation, 18
– Florence, 19

See, the judges were already giving Bristol 22 at this point for dancing that wasn’t that good. You expect me to believe that Bristol was only 2 points behind Jennifer Grey, who did a seriously kick ass jive?? Sorry, but nope.  In any case, Bristol was never in any danger thanks to overscoring AND people who were worse than her. Anyway, Michael was no great shock really, now that I think about it.  A 12 is very hard to overcome when the next lowest was an 18.  He had to get 27,000 more votes per million votes cast in order to stick around.

Week 3 – Rainbows are bad too??

Nah, not really. Louis was saying on Twitter that Margaret going the gay pride route was what did her in, but what I really think happened was that after that first dance no one took her seriously. She lasted as long as she did because The Hoff and The Bolton were so much worse.  I don’t think gay pride had anything to do with it – but maybe I’m naïve.   The bottom scorers were:

– Margaret, 18
– Bristol, 19
– Florence, 20
– The Sitch, 20

Now we see Bristol hit the bottom 2 in scores – but Margaret is the low scorer, here. No great stretch. Marge needed 4,500 votes to catch Bristol (chump change) and there is no way that was happening. No shocks here.

Week 4 – Here’s the Situation as I see it

Poor Situation, and by extension, poor Courtney. :-) He did well making it to the fourth week though, I have to say. The bottom scorers this week were:

– Situation, 28
– Bristol, 32
– Florence, 34
– Kurt, 35

Again, we see Bristol insulated by a 4 point cushion – not a huge number, but she’s not the low scorer and Sitch was a worse dancer. For the Situation to stay, he had to get 11,200 more votes than Bristol per 1 million votes cast.  Say thank you to your judges, because they are charting the course of Season 11 history here.  That 4 points isn’t huge – but it still counts.  No great shock that Bristol stuck around when put up against a relative unknown (to DWTS audience) guy who is 4 points behind her. And him being the worse dancer helped. :-)

Week 5 – Serious Monkey Business

This is the week where the wheels fell off, IMO.  I dare say that Michael Bolton was more than a little irate to see Bristol wear a Monkey suit and still get an 18.  I dare say that any pro who’s gotten scolded pretty harshly from Len for use of a prop (Maks, Derek, Dmitry…) was more than a little irate at the end of this night as well.  Remember when Nicole and Derek did a FANTASTIC quickstep that broke a ton of rules? Len gave them a 6. Then Len turns around this season and gives Bristol a 6 after forgetting most of her steps and wearing a Monkey suit. And you still wanna know why Bristol is still around at this point? :-) Hint: it ain’t the Tea Party – unless of course Len whipped out his silver tea set on the commercial break. :-) Check out this weeks scores:

– Bristol, 18
– Kyle, 20
– Florence, 21
– Audrina, 23

Kyle the Popular is only TWO points ahead of a girl who danced in a monkey suit. TWO.  And Audrina, who dances better on her worst day than Bristol does on her best, is only 5 points ahead of girl in monkey suit.  Florence is only three points ahead of Bristol – and three points ain’t nothing particularly when 8 or 7 people are getting votes. The voting is spread out over more people than it is in later weeks. Florence ultimately goes home, which means that:

Kyle got 5,500 more votes per million votes cast than she did, AND;

Bristol got 16,500 more votes per million votes cast than she did.

That may seem like a lot for Bristol to achieve, but in reality it is only 1.65 percent – a tiny number. Here’s another way to look at it: this was the week where you got 8 votes per phone and 8 votes per email address. So say the average person uses one phone and one email – that means only about 1,000 more people needed to vote for Bristol than they did for Florence. Of course not everyone who watches votes…but everyone who votes doesn’t use ONLY two accounts. We’re dealing in what could be very small numbers, here.

Week 6 – The Real Shocker

Okay, THIS was a shocking elimination – but after you really think about it for a bit, you realize maybe not.   Audrina is in the top two for judge’s scores and goes home. Because of Bristol? Hardly. There was a lot more at play here.  These were the scores for the week:

– Kurt, 22
– Bristol, 28
– Jennifer, 29
– Rick and Kyle, 30
– Audrina, 32
– Brandy, 36

There are FIVE people with lower scores than Audrina going into the audience vote. Five. The spread between the low scorer and Audrina is TEN points. Now that is a nice big number.  But is it shocking that Bristol stayed and Audrina when home? No – there is only 4 points between them, while Kurt is 10 points behind her.  When the second highest scorer goes home when there are 7 dancers?? It means that person wasn’t getting votes, period, not that Kurt and Bristol had huge fanbases. It wasn’t just Bristol that beat her, after all.  Kurt had to get nearly 5% more of the vote than her, or 48,500 more votes per million votes cast. Bristol only needed 1.93% – her highest margin of the season up until the finale. And of course, Jennifer, Rick and Kyle all had to make up a difference as well.

Audrina suffered from the model curse, IMO. Very beautiful but relatively unknown to the DWTS voters. Combine that with being paired with Tony and having a high score that week and you can kiss her goodbye. People continue to assume that if a dancer has a high score they are safe. Several of us on this blog had expressed concern about her longevity for these reasons. Put Audrina up against the movie icon, the fun Disney kid, the daughter of an infamous political figure, and two well liked (and well known) athletes? Then pair her with Tony instead of Derek and her odds get worse. Nothing against Tony, but, like it or not, Derek can make a model stick around longer – Joanna Krupa was far more unpopular than Audrina was popular.  With all these conditions, Audrina was never destined to go higher.

Week 7 – The Athletes Split the Votes

That’s one of my theories anyway. People who are inclined to go the athlete route had two to choose from.  Still think it’s Bristol’s fault? Nah.  This is only the second time that Bristol has been the low scorer and it isn’t by that much:

– Bristol, 57
– Kyle, 59
– Rick/Kurt, 61
– Jennifer/Brandy, 64

There is a significant problem here. First, when you hand out that many points in a week (366) and still keep the margin at 7 points between the top and bottom you actually decrease the percentage the low scorer needs to stick around. If they did the typical 30 point possible and had a spread between the top scorer and the bottom scorer of 7 points, the bottom scorer would need more than 5% to beat the top scorer. In this week, with a total points awarded of 366, there was ONLY a spread of 1.91% between Bristol and Brandy/Jennifer.  When you are talking less than a percent between the bottom FOUR scorers, of course it’s going to be anyone’s game.  Did Rick’s fans assume he was safe because of that four point cushion? Who knows? Were Kyle and Bristol fans really, really worried?? Probably. If those two sets of fans are worried, how hard do they really have to work? Kyle’s fans had to get 0.55% more and Bristol’s fans had to get 1.01% more.  Piece. Of. Cake. Odds are always good that the low scorers fans are going to vote like maniacs and it doesn’t take many maniacs to make up 1.01%.

Week 8 – Well, I think it was Close.

Seriously, Kurt versus Bristol with Bristol being the low scorer – but only by a point. We know what a point really means at this point, don’t we? Nothing. In this case, it was obviously going to be one of the two of them and I wager it was very close. Of course, I base that on what happened in the finale, so of course hind sight is 20-20.  Here were the scores for Week 8:

– Bristol, 47
– Kurt, 48
– Kyle, 57
– Brandy/Jennifer, 58

Much better point spread this week between the top and the bottom – but still that 10 points only means that Bristol is 3.77 percent behind Brandy/Jennifer.  That’s a small number and it’s again the result of a higher number of points awarded.  So, if there is only 3.77 % between the top and bottom, it’s not hard to believe that there is only 0.38% between Bristol and Kurt – that’s no spread at all. I will say it again – Bristol didn’t need a miracle to stay over Kurt. Not at all. She only needed a couple dozen more fans than Kurt who were passionate about her staying. Maybe not even that many if they were power voting.

Week 9 – Tragedy

Well, I think it was a tragedy, anyway. Even though my favorite won, I would have liked to see a real competition. Brandy/Kyle/Jennifer would have been great.  But the question is – did Bristol play spoiler? Hmmm…Maybe for the first time.  But how much of it was Bristol and how much of it was Brandy herself? How much of it was the judges?? Again, the judges had a great deal of influence – look at the scores:

– Bristol, 53
– Brandy, 57
– Kyle, 58
– Jennifer, 60

Bristol only 4 points behind Brandy? Seriously?? People keep saying the judges scores mean nothing, but I think they’ve got it backwards – the judges scores mean everything, just  not in a good way. By scoring Bristol relative only to herself, THEY give her more potential to stick around longer.  Now, I understand doing that early on – but this was the 9th week and it was time to turn into a hard ass and they all FAILED.  Sometimes I think the judges think they are being tough, like above, giving Bristol a 53. Problem is, they don’t really get how the scoring and the audience vote works out either – or it doesn’t appear so, anyway. Because that 4 points equals 1.75%. How many time have I said how little 4 points amounts to? It’s a pittance. When you have Kyle being a likeable teddy bear, Jennifer Grey being JENNIFER GREY and Bristol getting all the buzz (plus the Vote for the Worst crew), Brandy is going to need more than that 4 points – she wasn’t getting any attention that week. No attention = kiss of death.

Week 10 – The Finale Tells the Tale.

And Bristol takes 3rd. And in doing so we learn the limits of her voting fanbase.   The final scores were:

– Bristol, 104
– Kyle, 110
– Jennifer, 118

Again, because so many points were awarded, the spread between them goes down even though the points difference seems greater.  That six points between Kyle and Bristol only equates to 2.75%, which is not that much greater than the spread between her and Brandy. But it is clearly enough to knock Bristol out of the game. I think there were a few things at work here – the judges finally started scoring them relative to each other, or seriously ranking them. When they do that, it makes an impact. But that wasn’t all – people finally figured out that if they didn’t want Bristol to win, they had to vote like hell for someone else. The highest number of votes in the history of the show isn’t going to benefit Bristol, as much as the Tea Party would like to think otherwise – hey, DWTS mirrors real life!! ;-)

At the end of the day, Bristol was eliminated because she couldn’t get past the 2.75% between her and Kyle. That was the largest spread she ever had to overcome over the entire 10 weeks of the competition.   Here’s a summation of where Bristol was each week – if she was the low scorer, I put the margin she had to overcome.

–          Week 1 – Not in the bottom 4

–          Week 2 – Not in the bottom 5

–          Week 3 – Margaret was low scorer, Margaret went home

–          Week 4 – Sitch was low scorer, Sitch went home

–          Week 5 – 1.65%

–          Week 6 – Kurt was low score by 6 points, Audrina went home

–          Week 7 – 1.01%

–          Week 8 – 0.38%

–          Week 9 – 1.75%

–          Week 10 – 2.75% – Bristol is eliminated first.

Now, do you still think that it’s surprising that Bristol lasted as long as she did?? I would hope not. I would also hope that people realize they have to vote for their favorite because the judges don’t put in enough of a spread between the dancers to amount to anything.

The moral of the story is – the judges scores mean everything, when they actually rank the contestants. ;-) But if they don’t?? You best vote.

December 16, 2010 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)