First things first – sending out thanks and big props to Erin, Maks, Tony and Anna. Their fans apparently asked them to re-tweet Nashville flood information and ways to donate and they did. Thanks, guys, I’m sure the people who were – are – victims appreciate it. Julianne Hough and Chuck Wicks are involved, obviously, so thanks to them too. Hope I didn’t miss anyone – those are just the ones I noticed last night.
On with the show…
Okay, what the hell? Last year didn’t they give everyone the same dance (Paso Doble) but just different eras?? Also, this should be the judges “off the meds” week, going by the pattern of the last 2 or 3 weeks. So beware. I’ve added videos this week, because this post is shrinking every week.
Nicole/Derek: Foxtrot and 50′s Era Paso Doble – Well, I thought they were challenging Derek last year with futuristic Paso Doble and he choreographed something that is Emmy-worthy. So, I’m not going to sweat the fact that his MOM wasn’t even born in the 50′s, let alone him or Nicole. His blog (and the video below) did scare me though. Foxtrot should be beautiful – maybe Len will finally get real and give her a ten, barring some sort of disaster – such as her dress getting under his “thing” like it did last week. No, I don’t know what she meant when she said that.
Stop scaring me, Derek!!
Chad/Cheryl: Tango and 60′s Jive – Oh boy. Jive should be a disaster, but he’s got hope with the Tango. I don’t see any way that Cheryl can do the dancing in the Jive for him like she’s had to do recently, without it being VERY obvious. Is he going to get called on the lack of flicks and kicks, etc? No clean content? Tango? Should be okay, I think.
Chad and Cheryl talk about their dances – Chad is gaining confidence.
Erin/Maks: Argentine Tango and 80′s Rumba – Okay, they say Maks is dressed as Don Johnson in Miami Vice and that Erin is doing Flashdance. How is Miami Vice romantic Rumba-worthy? Am I missing something? I’m wracking my brain. Is this going to be another moment that I don’t understand? In any case, it won’t matter – she’s getting SO much press right now (Kimmel, Leno), plus she was in the bottom two last week, so her fans will be voting maniacs – or they should be. Depending on what Maks has in mind, she will either be excellent or just fine – but like I said, it won’t matter.
Erin and Maks – cover a lot of ground:
Evan/Anna: Waltz and Futuristic Cha Cha - The Waltz will likely be stunning, but I doubt very much he gets another 30. The judges aren’t rolling that way – unless he’s not getting the votes I think he is. Futuristic Cha Cha?? Does Anna have it in her? If I see a faux hawk and lights on their costumes, I’m calling foul. Cha cha could be challenging when he doesn’t have a group with him – he still has hip issues, but with his fanbase it ain’t no big thing. I don’t think.
Evan and Anna talk about their dances and training (Sorry John, I’m really loving Anna):
Niecy/Louis: Viennese Waltz and 90′s Paso – Well, I don’t know what to say about this. What does a 90′s Paso look like? And how can the judges tell it’s a 90′s Paso? As much as I love Niecy, I don’t think she’s sharp enough for either of these dances at this stage of the competition. If there is ANY justice, this show now belongs to Evan, Nicole and Erin, with an honorable mention by Chad in whom I have seen improvement. Don’t get me wrong, Niecy has improved too (she might even be better than Kelly was at this stage) – but not enough to compete with Evan, Nicole, Erin and Chad. If we are talking “fair” and we all know this show ain’t fair most of the time.
I couldn’t find a comparable video to the ones above where they talk about their dances, but I LOVE this video of Niecy and Louis. Sometimes she wears on me, but she’s pretty damn funny. And Louis is too!
Random Musings and Predictions
Who do I think is going home this week? The short answer is Niecy – but I think it could be a very interesting week, to say the least. I think either Nicole or Evan could find themselves in the bottom 2, more likely Nicole than Evan. Why? Well, bear with me because it’s a complicated thought and it’s really hard to tell how and why people vote for who they vote for. The following is MY opinion on the voting process – I have no insider knowledge. If I did, I wouldn’t be here.
The average non-internet dwelling people who likely make up at least 80 percent of the viewing audience (if not a LOT more) probably vote for either who they consider the best dancer, or whoever their personal favorite is. I would imagine that their voting breaks down in the order that is spouted by the entertainment shows and Vegas odds makers: Nicole/Evan, Erin, Chad and Niecy. BUT, how many times do those people vote? One phone line and one internet account? One or the other? And how many vote? I would also wager that most of them see maybe one entertainment show, most likely Entertainment Tonight, if that.
That leaves the other 20 percent (or much less) of the voting population. These people (and I include myself and everyone reading this) represent the extremes of the population. They see a lot of internet and traditional media, they develop a serious favorite and vote like crazy – multiple times. They *follow* dancing with the stars. Some of them have a favorite professional dancer who they will vote for every time, like me. Some of them are fans of a given celebrity and vote like crazy for them. Then there are those that are just fans of the show and who develop a favorite couple not being a fan of the celeb or the pro going in. So which of those three groups vote the most? Well, I’m inclined to believe that the person with the biggest fanbase going in wins because those people are PASSIONATE.
In terms of this season, that person has to be Evan, going by all previous barometers of who wins the show. Evan’s fans most likely are the demographic who vote, much like Kristi and Shawn. Nicole also has a big fanbase and she is paired with, arguably, the most popular professional dancer (of the men, at least). While Derek’s fans will vote like crazy, do Nicole’s? Pop Stars don’t WIN, normally because their demographic is younger and not inclined to vote as much – they may not have even watched the show before. The exceptions are Joey and Donny, but they are older and male with fanbases that intersect the DWTS demographic. Is it because female pop stars coincide with ringers? Doubt it – more likely it’s because their fanbases don’t match the typical DWTS demographic. Past history shows that female pop stars don’t fare as well as Olympic Gold Medalists and Football players. Which brings us to Chad. The football players who have done very well have not only been very popular, but they’ve danced better than Chad has, which is why I don’t think Chad will make the finals.
A third thing at work here is visibility. The media. Who’s getting the media? Erin, Chad and Niecy. Now, granted, Kate got the lions share of the media and got the boot, but she was also a horrible dancer. It’s hard to say how the relative lack of visibility will affect Nicole and Evan. Really, just Nicole because Evan’s got that big, DWTS demographic-matching, fanbase. Erin has been EVERYWHERE this week both good (Kimmel, Leno) and bad (The View), plus ALL of the entertainment shows. She is literally everywhere. To a lesser extent, Chad and Niecy are getting media too – Chad because of his showmancing of Cheryl and Niecy because she has a strangle hold on ET and The Insider. She works for the Insider and the same company owns ET. So will all the media help? Hurt? Or have no impact? I’ll tell you a secret – it impacts me because I see all of it. I have a TiVo that picks up all of those shows – it takes me less than half an hour to fast forward through all those shows looking for interesting bits of DWTS news. That is why I won’t be voting for Erin/Maks if they were to outlast Nicole/Derek, I find Chad increasingly charming, love Niecy, and I GET Nicole. And Evan is just a doll. But really, how many people are there out there that do the same? Is performing well on show night enough to remind people you exist? I dunno – Nicole hasn’t been getting the best edits. Neither has Erin, but she has a huge sympathy factor in play here that Nicole doesn’t get. Nicole has Derek who is well liked, Erin has Maks who might have turned some off with his temper tantrums. Who knows?
In conclusion, based on my thoughts outlined above, here’s how I think it goes, prior to seeing the dances:
Evan/Anna – Safe, because of a bad-ass fanbase and no small amount of dancing talent.
Erin/Maks – Safe, because she was in the bottom two last week AND Elizabeth Hasselbeck was an ass to her. Sympathy and highly motivated fans.
Nicole/Derek – Likely safe, but possible bottom 2 due to lack of visibility, non-DWTS fanbase of the PCD. Her fans (and Derek’s) need to STEP IT UP.
Chad/Cheryl – Danger Zone, but likely safe due to charm and the football player fan contingent. Unlike Erin/Maks, he and Cheryl are successfully working the are they/aren’t they showmance angle.
Niecy/Louis – Danger Zone, probably going home.
Now, it’s entirely possible that the scoring will be such that it’s a foregone conclusion who will stay and who will go. That’s why I do the math after the dancing. The above sort of assumes that the scores will be close again – but it also acknowledges that at this point in the game, the scores don’t mean all that much.
First up, Evan Lysacek for People Magazine. I’m back to loving Evan again, now that he’s stopped spamming me for votes and more of his personality is coming through. I’m still hung up on that “Omega Sheep” comment.
Last week we tried to power through our training. We were never in sync and it showed with our samba performance and the judges’ comments. We were both disappointed, but most of all I was angry with myself. When I started this show I did it for the fun of it. But as the weeks went on, I became preoccupied with the scores, and lost sight of the fact that dancing is supposed to be fun. You get sevens one week and you want eights. Then you get eights and you want nines. Last week Anna and I got our butts kicked with sevens. I walked away feeling like I let my partner down, as well as my fans and the judges.
Like many things in life, it’s the attitude you take into a particular situation or apply to a certain goal that will help you either succeed or fail. So this week I came into it with the attitude of “Hey, if I mess up or forget a step, the most important thing is to focus on the character and flavor of the dance and have fun.” Last night, I had the clarity that I wasn’t going to preoccupy my head with numbers, but that I was going to dance full out and be that character in the tango. I was going to take the lead with Anna and really plunge into the performance. And wow, it worked! I felt GREAT. The icing on the cake was receiving a perfect score. Amazing.
Next – Maks at TV Guide. Dude, since you asked, I hated that purple feathery skirt thing with all the pantyhose material up top. You don’t do half bad much of the time though. I do think you have the right attitude about the bottom 2 thing, though.
We were in the bottom two. Everyone’s asking if I’m shocked or upset since we got good scores. I’m not upset or disappointed. If we were to do a dance we were disappointed with, it’s one thing. But we did a great dance that we’re proud of. It was nothing to be ashamed of. If we were to be sent home, I wouldn’t be upset. I mean, I would be upset we’re not in the finale, but I would not be upset given what we did. I’m not going to sit and try to figure out why we ended up there. Maybe we had a smaller fan base. Or maybe, as some have suggested, people thought we would be fine with our scores so they didn’t vote. If that’s the case, then please, everybody out there vote for your favorite. Never assume your favorite is safe. That’s not a plea to vote for us, just a general plea to vote for whoever your favorite is. Honestly, I’m not nervous on Tuesdays because the results are out of my control. We’re just standing there waiting for the verdict.
Pam left, and no one wanted to see her leave. It was very sad. I’m not sure what her injury was, but she just showed up in the morning and couldn’t do the encore cha-cha. Some people are saying maybe it’s a good thing she was eliminated since she was injured, but I don’t think her injury was that serious. If she had stayed, the injury would’ve been a non-factor. Everybody has minor injuries of some sort and you just push forward. I think when you’re in a competition you brush off the pain. I know for a fact at the end of the season, I’m going get sick. Being on the show gets your adrenaline going; it’s very high-octane. But I know when the season’s over, my body is going to shut down and rest. And you have to let it.
It was a big birthday week here. Chery’s birthday was Monday and Erin’s was Tuesday, and both celebrations were really cool. We went out after the shows to celebrate. Cheryl’s party was such a close-knit gathering. It was really special to see people who were special to Cheryl and to be part of that very small group. Cheryl and I have been through a lot together and we have a very special friendship. On Tuesday, it was very similar. We went out for Erin’s birthday with Tony, Cheryl, Erin’s sister and our friend Howard. It was exactly what Erin needed to feel part of a family. This season has been very unifying. Three or four weeks ago, everybody’s helping each other out. But now we’re a group of people who are so friendly. I don’t want to imagine starting next week because the five couples left and we’re so close to the finale. No one wants to see anybody else leave. We all had tears in our eyes when Pam left. Louis and I looked at each other and were like, “If it’s not her, it’s us!” Someone has to go every week, and it’s definitely going to be tougher to say goodbye now.
And Finally, Derek at OK! magazine. I didn’t see the bobble until the replay the next night! Lucky camera work. Yer scarin’ me with your Paso Doble talk, though.
Nicole and I tied with Evan Lysacek and Anna Trebunskaya in the total score for the two dances on Monday night and I couldn’t have been more proud of my partner. To be honest, though, when I first heard we were going to waltz to the song “You Light up My Life, “ I was like, oh, man, cheese city! But I found out Nicole was excited about it because it was her aunt’s favorite song. It gave Nicole an opportunity to fly her family out and for her aunt, who has Down’s Syndrome, to watch and enjoy. As with all the couples on the show, during breaks, we get to talk about ourselves and I learned how much she cherishes her aunt. It was a really special moment to share with Nicole when she realized how much her aunt loved the performance.
Footage aired on DWTS seemed to show us squabbling, but honestly, Nicole and I get along famously. If we ever get into an argument, it’s for a hot second. It’s over in a flash. But it is true, as it said in the TV package, that sometimes I forget to encourage her. She’s doing so well and I forget it’s new to her and she’s as scared as everybody else. Sometimes I’m like no, no, no and she’s like, am I doing anything right? But now I understand and we’re all good.
Monday after the show, I texted Cheryl a happy birthday, then caught my buddy Mark Ballas’ concert at The Mint. It was an awesome show, and then I went straight home to bed and was asleep by 11:30. Going out isn’t my thing anymore — I’m definitely a homebody.
On Tuesday night, I was so sorry to see Pamela Anderson get eliminated. I worked with her on the team cha cha dance and she was so much fun, so willing to give it her all.
I think America got to see a different side of Pam — she’s very witty, sweet, and sincere. That’s one of the strengths of DWTS, showing fans something new about all the celebrities’ personalities.
I’m feeling quite snarky this week. Courtney’s in a bad mood – you’ve been warned.
Most Bizarre Costuming – Cheryl & Chad’s see-through ensemble Heidi: So, this was like 1820’s porn or something? She’s wearing the hoop but not the actual dress over the top? Courtney: I think I was more perturbed by Chad’s matching see-through sport jacket with no shirt underneath. I think there was a method to their madness – Chad is admittedly better at the Latin dances, so they figured if they made their costumes feel more like Latin costumes than ballroom ones, they might fare better…hehe. Well, something must’ve worked, because they got undeservedly high scores…AGAIN.
Heidi: Don’t worry, the judges will make up for it next week when they have their “off the meds” week.
Most Improved Tweeter – Evan Lysacek Heidi: Hey!!! Evan stopped spamming me about voting for him. He’s like down to two tweets on show day!! Now, if he would stop talking about his freakin’ private jets…it just occurred to me that he probably gets paid for those tweet. Courtney: I’ll have to take your word for it – I stopped following Evan after tweet number 1,475,236 asking me to vote for him. Thankfully, Anna has left the begging to Evan, and has only tweeted a few times asking for votes. Good girl
Biggest “Get Out of Jail Free” Card – Maksim Chmerkovskiy Heidi: So, he removes clothing (gimmick) and breaks hold in a quickstep, his partner is off time (and correct in calling him a five year old) and he still gets a 9 from Len?? Gee, Derek and Nicole broke hold, had gimmicks did a BETTER DANCE and got a 7 from Len. And people wonder why I throw my Blackberry at the TV. Edited: Okay, so maybe “free pass” was a poor choice of words…perhaps the bottom two was payback? Courtney: Week 2 of Maks the Petulant Asshole. Last week he threw a tantrum while getting his scores – then proceeded to bitch and moan about it all week in the media. Erin practically BEGS him to not take his clothes off this week, he drops 4+ F-bombs in a matter of seconds, and storms out – and STILL insists on removing his clothing during their quickstep, which I still think is what threw Erin off at the beginning. And then, karma strikes – they end up in the bottom 2. But of course, they get a stay of execution and we lose Pam instead. All I have to say is that Maks had better be really, really, REALLY thankful that he’s around next week, after the crap he’s been pulling. NOT COOL.
The Cheesiest “I told you so” Moment: Tom B calls Evan the “comeback kid”. Heidi: Not Tom’s fault – producers/script writers, you are SO fucking predictable!!! Courtney: Oh, but it has such a nice ring to it Kidding! Just another glaring example of storyboarding – right down to what the hosts are saying…which is why Brooke still sounds stilted and awkward. She’s trying to rememember the wording they told her to use to explain Evan’s rise back to the top! Thankfully, we have Tom to also throw in perfect little gems off the top of his head…
Funniest Side Note: Tom B – “Cause that’s how we roll” in reaction to audience boos. Heidi: LOL – I love the man’s ad libs – I can’t help it!! Courtney: In that moment, I think Tom & Chad became homeboys.
Best Celeb “Shell Removal” – Evan Lysacek Heidi: dude is coming out of his shell in a big way. Omega Sheep?? Dude, she’s RUSSIAN!! Don’t be talking like that to her, she could remove your balls with a fingernail. Hilarious. Courtney: Tread carefully, my friend – not only is she Russian, she’s a redhead. A REDHEAD. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Pro Least Ready to be Back on the Dance Floor – Mark Ballas Heidi: Dude, big slip like you had in that pro dance after a knee injury – not good. Surely you could have sat out another week or two for your own good? And so Derek could take your place in the dance? Just a little selfish, I’m being. Courtney: Ugh. The spaz came back. And the fact that they had him paired with Chelsie? Oy. But that’s not the only thing wrong with that dance…
Song that Should NEVER Be Heard on DWTS Again: “Hey Soul Sister” by Train Courtney: First, they laid ruin to it vocally when they had Peter Brady sing it (rather, warble it) for Aiden & Edyta’s quickstep. Then, they had a random assortment of pros dancing a positively bizarre mashup to it – did they let Mark choreograph that monstrosity while he was still coming off the anesthesia? It started off with Mark & Chelsie doing something kinda slow & lyrical, then all of a sudden, Dmitry & Lacey are doing a frantic jive. Tony & Cheryl show up at some point and do something sort of samba-y, and then they’re all doing this cheesy, weird, jazzy/show choir/seizure choreography. I literally said “WTF is this crap?!” out loud. Heidi: It was just very, very strange. I don’t know what to say, really. And I like Train, usually. I will say, in all seriousness, if Mark is trying to get out of DWTS, there are less painful ways than dancing way too soon on a knee injury that was described so seriously a few weeks ago. Of course, this show isn’t prone to DRAMA or anything…
The “So Perky, it’s a Whole New Level of Cheese” Award: Melissa Rycroft Heidi: Help me, sugar shock, throat is closing up…I’d tell her “don’t quit your day job” if I thought she had a day job. Seriously, Melissa is okay, she’s just too cheerleader for me sometimes. Like today. Courtney: Hang in there, Heidi – I know it’s hard to be cheerful right now! She may be irritatingly peppy, but at least she can form insightful thoughts on the fly – unlike some hosts I know.
Most Impressive Demonstration of Flexibility – Louis’ full split, honorable mention for Anna’s split lift with Evan Heidi: Dear lord, Louis, I don’t have “family jewels” but I twinged in sympathy anyway. Courtney: Back in the day, when Louis was still competing as a pro, he was known for his flexibilty – no other male pro out there could stretch as far as that little Dutch rubber band. I got a little nostalgic last night when I could see him going for it And while women are built to be more flexible, I have to give Anna props for the split lift she did with Evan – she kept those legs straight & spread and didn’t falter for a second.
Most Welcome Return to the Ballroom: Karina Smirnoff Heidi: That was an excellent pro dance. Oh Karina, how I’ve missed thee. Courtney: I feel like we don’t have enough female pros on the show anymore that are true TECHNICIANS – Karina’s feet, legs, torso, arms, and head are always in perfect position for every dance she’s doing. She’s so damn precise, and she wrings every last bit of energy out of every move she makes. Electrifying. They’d be foolish not to bring her back next season!
Most Shudder Inducing Commercial: The Bachelorette Heidi: Oh ick. Court, yell at me when you realize I’m watching that trash. Courtney: Not a problem, dearie – if I recall, I think I scolded you for watching Jake when he was still on The Bachelor, hehe. Is it just me, or does Allie look like she’s 12 years old? I won’t go any further…I know John has a thing for blondes, so he prolly thinks she’s cute as a button Heidi: sigh…yes, you yelled at me. But I have this thing for trainwrecks and lack of fun shit to do on Monday nights.
The Ryan Seacrest Cheeseball Award: The DWTS script writers for the blatant rip off of Ryan’s pre-commercial tease “…when we come back.” Heidi: Geez, people, don’t imitate the crap show with the falling ratings, ‘k?? Courtney: And actually, Seacrest has been catching some flack this season too – his standoffs with Simon, off-color comments, and generally drunk behavior has been raising eyebrows for weeks now. Guess he picked up the cray-cray right where Paula left off, eh? Heidi: Did you see the results show tonight (yes, I had to see Gaga and Harry)?? Did you HEAR what Ryan said to Harry? I don’t think I can actually repeat it in polite company. Well, yeah, okay, I can. Harry is joking with Ellen about a play rivaly and Harry says, to Ellen: “Eyes away from me” and Ryan pops in with “Eyes away from his organ” – Yo, Harry wasn’t playing an organ, and there was no other way to take that comment in that context. Dude is on some crack or he’s got one job too many. Or he has a huge crush on Harry and that was what ya call a Freudian Slip. Take your pick.
Well, that’s all for this week folks. Tune in next week for more snark, the occassional swoon, and just plain bitching. It’s what we do.
Okay, I admit I was a little bit surprised at one couple in the bottom two. Erin and Maks. Does make me wonder if Maks is his own worst enemy, though. If it had been Evan or Nicole, I would say fans got too over confident…but Erin was in fourth place at the end of the night. Tom B kept making a point about them being in the “bottom 2″, so I don’t even think they were playing – except maybe at rallying her fans to get their crap together. For those of you cussing me, waiting to find out who DID go home – Pam/Damian. My condolences, Courtney. I wish she were staying too, for what it’s worth. Of the six that remained, I found Nicole, Evan and Pam to be the most entertaining, for different reasons. As Tom said, the double entendre quotient will decrease significantly. The best part was – she made more than half of them herself!!
For those of you wondering just what the heck I was talking about when I was calling Elizabeth Hasselback nasty (but apropos) names —> Elizabeth is less than smart regarding Erin Way to set us back several decades, Liz!! <----sarcasm You know my fondness for Erin decreases with every week that passes, but that was totally uncalled for.
Heidi: Called Pam exactly (and unfortunately) right. Was surprised to see Erin in the bottom 2, although I did point out that it could happen to anyone.
Courtney: Was working (unsuccessfully) the power of positive thinking and called Niecy going home with Pam in the bottom 2 with her.
Marianya predicted which couple would get what score – pre-dance, so it’s considerably more difficult. Here’s how she did this week:
Marianya gave Team Gaga the edge (correct) and called Niecy/Chad as bottom two (incorrect). All things considered, Marianya did well since there was so much overscoring going on.
Heidi: Hey!! Called it right again, but so NOT happy about it!! I think with Pam gone, and Erin having been in the bottom 2, it may finally be Niecy’s time next week. Erin’s fans will rally (unless Maks loses control again), I don’t think Chad was ever in danger, and if Nicole’s fans are smart they will realize how easy it would be to switch Erin for Nicole in that red light of doom.
Marianya: Ugh I totally forgot about the natural scoring curve up from the midpoint of the season onward. Ah well… it looks like that Erin’s scores aren’t going to help her without the fanbase… either that or people are just plain annoyed with her and Maks by now.
I’m upset that Pamela was sent home, I think she still has a lot of legs in her run than some of the other couples, plus I’m no where near as annoyed by her as I am with Chad and Erin. But I try not to let subjectivity take over
I still haven’t seen the show yesterday (after driving for two and a half hours straight I just wanted to go to bed) and tonight didn’t record so I have to catch up tomorrow… though from all the ranting that went on I’m wondering if it’s even worth it.
Anyway it’ll be interesting to see who is going to join Even and (most likely) Nicole in the finals… it could be Erin (closest in technique) or Chad (strong fan base) or Niecy (everything else?). Guess we’re going to have to wait and see.
Are The Insider people superfreak tall or is Cheryl very short? As much as Erin’s ‘tude annoys me, Elizabeth Hasselbeck is an idiot for her comments regarding her. Stupid. As the Gawker said, “Feminism: You’re doing it WRONG.” Just sayin’.
Tony is a class act!! Helping Chad! Cheryl’s B-Day Party
First things first – everyone PLEASE give to the Red Cross, if you are able. Nashville has been hit by a 1000 year flood. Hundreds (thousands?) of homes are under water, downtown landmarks are taking on water – not only will homeowners be impacted for weeks or months to come, but Nashville’s tourism industry has taken a serious hit. Locales never before flooded are under water – like the Country Music Hall of Fame, historic Opryland Hotel and the Grand Ole Opry. One of our two water plants are under water, so it’s conservation time – pray the water doesn’t reach the other plant. It’s devastating. If you want to read about it, Channels 2, 4 and 5 out of Nashville all have websites which document a lot of the damage. It’s been a very sad few days here in Nashville.
The Storyboarding was unbelievable last night. Erin’s best dance?? I see they are on crack once again!! Erin was off time from Maks, they broke hold, there were gimmicks. If anyone else had danced that dance (hello, Nicole) they would have been skewered. Certainly not worthy of a 27 – too sloppy, especially when compared to Nicole’s Waltz or Evan’s Tango.
Then Chad – who I think actually did better than Erin – gets a 9 from Len? Boy, are they desperate to make this into a horserace or what? Then Nicole does a near perfect dance so she should get 10’s right, since they overscored everyone else so far? HELL NO. I suppose they will give Niecy a 10? No, but they give her a point better than Pam which is crap. But, in hindsight, how it shakes out after the group dances it’s almost like they knew what the teams would get. Hmmm…say it ain’t so! I will say that I thought Evan did a great job and deserved a 30. The only reason it pisses me off is because Len should have given Nicole a ten long before now – like for her perfect Tango. But part of the reason Evan gets a 30 is so that he can have an “amazing comeback!!!!” That said, Evan had the most crowd pleasing type of dance of the night AND the dance best suited to his abilities – the only Argentine Tango of the night. Going up against waltzes and mediocre quicksteps, of course he will shine.
Carrie Ann saying that Nicole is the best dancer ever on the show is like the kiss of death – or Carrie knows she’s not getting the votes so she thought she’d get that out there just in case.
All these other sites or people that act surprised that Evan is now up there with Nicole – wake up, people. He’s always been up there with Nicole and he’s always been destined to win because of his own talent and because of his fanbase. It amazes me that there are still people who honestly (or not so honestly) think the best dancer (Nicole) wins. Not true – the biggest fanbase wins and that is still Evan (probably). The only reason Evan was down at 21 last week was because of more judge storyboarding. His dance was worth more than a 21, easily.
After the individual dances, the celebrities were ranked in this order:
Courtney and I should post a transcript of our conversation (via Twitter) during the show because I am a great prognosticator (when it comes to the judges, anyway) and she’s not too shabby herself. It was SO easy to predict what the judges were going to do. I even said, “If Team Madonna gets a 24, that will put Evan/Nicole in a tie for first place” – which is exactly what they want and exactly what happened. It also knocked Erin/Maks down a couple pegs and Niecy into last place where they want her.
The Team Dance Scores
Add the two scores together for each celeb, then add all the scores together to get the total judges points awarded (311). Then you divide a celebs score by the total points awarded to get their judges percentage:
It’s weeks like this where the results show can be very interesting, where someone popular could go home if their fans assume they are safe. There is just a tiny difference between Evan/Nicole and Niecy – not many more votes for Nicole to go home instead of one of the lower scorers. Or Erin to get bumped. Do I think that will happen this week? Not really, but you never know. How did the fans of those already booted vote? Did they go for Niecy? Pam? If they do in large numbers –well, no one is safe.
For Niecy to stay and for someone else to go, she needs to get approximately 6,450 votes more than either Pam or Erin per 1 million votes cast. That is not very many, depending on how many people actually vote. If only 500k vote every week, that number shrinks to 3,225. I will say right now that I don’t think Erin is going anywhere. Pam on the other hand, is in danger. This is a toss-up, really, because neither woman danced particularly well last night. But where are Jake’s fans, Aiden’s fans and the others likely to put their votes (if they still vote)?? Probably NOT to Pam.
What about the potential for a “shocking” (not really) elimination? Evan and Nicole are tied for first place – what would it take for either one of them to be eliminated? Well, ALL the people below them would have to get more votes, obviously, which adds up to:
Niecy – 16,100 votes per 1 million
Pam – 9,700 votes per 1 million
Erin – 9,700 votes per 1 million
Chad – 6,430 votes per 1 million
So, if 1 million people vote, the above numbers represent how many MORE votes each contestant has to get than either Nicole or Evan for Nicole or Evan to be eliminated. Now, do you think this is possible? Well, I refuse to believe that Evan won’t win, but I think it could happen to Nicole. Probably not this week, but next week? Nicole/Derek fans better be stepping it up.
I’m sad to say that I think Pam will be leaving us tonight and that Niecy lives to dance another day. Sorry Courtney. But I would not be surprised if anyone left (other than Evan), with the scores as tight as they are.
Well, it’s seems to be another cleanup week, with a mixture of dances that the couples haven’t done yet. And once again, it seems that they are perhaps giving the weaker dancers dances that won’t necessarily suit them.
Additionally, we have the Team dances and FINALLY it has occurred to the producers that if you give both teams the same dance, you can compare them better. I believe it was Niecy who explained how it went this season (and I’m looking for the source of this – I know I read it somewhere) (I was wrong, it was Maks’ blog – thanks to mousebumples): Evan and Nicole, as the front runners, were named team captains. They had the choice of picking the song or picking first for the team. They flipped a coin and Nicole won. She chose to pick their song, giving Evan first shot at picking a team member. Personally, I think she did the right thing, because she and Derek both are very musical and the music is critical to Derek’s choreography. In any case, they picked Lady Gaga’s Telephone, leaving Evan’s team with Madonna’s Holiday. Evan picked first and picked, to no one’s surprise, Erin. Nicole picked Pam, Evan picked Niecy and Nicole picked Chad.
It will be very interesting because in terms of choreography we have Cheryl, Derek and Damian on one team – Cheryl and Derek are probably the two best choreographers on the show, and Damian will likely work well with them considering their history. Also, Derek has competed in both previous team dances and won both times. Cheryl has competed once, and Damian is new. But on the other team we have Anna, Maks and Louis – I think that Maks and Louis are also very strong choreographers, although Louis hasn’t been that great this season thus far, IMO. Louis has been in this competition once, the other two have not made it to the team dance. So, in terms of choreography, I think Team Gaga has the edge.
Now, based on the actual celebs in each group, I have to give the edge to Evan/Erin/Niecy (aka Team Madonna). That group has, essentially, one ringer and a mini-ringer to the one ringer in Team Gaga. But it’s going to be close, because Derek and Cheryl have experience in team dances. At the end of the day, I’m going to give the win to Team Madonna, not because of skill level but due to the fact that Evan got hosed last week (and the judges were up to something there), and Derek has already won this twice. But I don’t think it’s going to be a blow out by any stretch, it’s going to be very close (one or two points) unless the judges play games (again).
Now, the individual dances. I don’t know how I feel about them cleaning up and having everyone dance dances that have been done this season but that they themselves have not been done. Can’t they bust out the Paso and something else? Anyway, here is how it stacks up:
Nicole/Derek: Slow Waltz – should be lovely. Nicole should be in an up week, provided that her neck issue has healed. They have been getting a bad edit, similar to Maks/Erin, plus a slower dance – well, this dance needs to be beautiful because we are now at the stage where a “shocking elimination” could happen. They have to bring it.
Evan/Anna: Argentine Tango - perfect dance to shoot Evan back to the top of the leader board. Much spicier than the waltz that Nicole and Derek are tasked with and seems ripe for story boarding. “Evan Lysacek bounces back from a disastrous week!!!!” Perfect for the post-Kate era ratings. Yes, I am cynical.
Chad/Cheryl: Viennese Waltz - has disaster written all over it. Chad himself said he prefers the latin dances. I don’t see Chad pulling this one off in a significant way. I could be wrong, but this guy has disappointed me many times and I don’t think this week will be any different.
Pam/Damien: Slow Waltz – Pamela is amazing but she needs to step it up. Will she? I certainly think she is capable. After all the drama surrounding Erin and Maks, this is the pair I would like to see in the final three with Evan and Nicole. But I don’t think it will happen, unfortunately. I really don’t have the ability to predict how Pam will do. Damian is brand new and untested with celebs, and Pam is often incredible in creating a character, but not always spot on with getting the steps. I think the steps will be more important with the Waltz, so this could be a difficult dance – at a time when she least needs challenging. The bottom three should be between her, Chad and Niecy with Niecy going home – but you just never know.
Erin/Maks: Quickstep – this will be the interesting dance of the night. I’m quite sure that Erin is more than capable of delivering a great quickstep. The question is: will Maks choreograph in response to his pissiness with Len, or will he choreograph what he really feels? Anyone who has watched the media knows that Maks was PISSED OFF and unrepentant. So, will he choreograph a dance sans gimmicks and strip teases, or will he try to further piss Len off? If he plays it straight, Erin should have a great dance. In fact, I would not be at all surprised to see Erin lead the pack after all the crap of last week – remember, this show loves a great story. She might end up in first place whether she deserves it or not.
Niecy and Louis: Quickstep – yeah, I don’t see this happening. It’s fast and in hold so Niecy can’t use any of her assets. Barring a great dance by Niecy or a disaster by someone else (Chad), I see this as Niecy’s final dance. I would not mind at all if Chad were to go in her place, but I doubt it.
So, anyone think I’m wrong? Think Evan won’t get an “amazing surge back to Number 1″? That Erin won’t be given an amazing growth arch? Anyone think that Niecy will kill the Quickstep?? Lay it on me.