First things first – sending out thanks and big props to Erin, Maks, Tony and Anna. Their fans apparently asked them to re-tweet Nashville flood information and ways to donate and they did. Thanks, guys, I’m sure the people who were – are – victims appreciate it. Julianne Hough and Chuck Wicks are involved, obviously, so thanks to them too. Hope I didn’t miss anyone – those are just the ones I noticed last night.
On with the show…
Okay, what the hell? Last year didn’t they give everyone the same dance (Paso Doble) but just different eras?? Also, this should be the judges “off the meds” week, going by the pattern of the last 2 or 3 weeks. 🙂 So beware. I’ve added videos this week, because this post is shrinking every week. 🙂
Nicole/Derek: Foxtrot and 50’s Era Paso Doble – Well, I thought they were challenging Derek last year with futuristic Paso Doble and he choreographed something that is Emmy-worthy. So, I’m not going to sweat the fact that his MOM wasn’t even born in the 50’s, let alone him or Nicole. His blog (and the video below) did scare me though. 🙂 Foxtrot should be beautiful – maybe Len will finally get real and give her a ten, barring some sort of disaster – such as her dress getting under his “thing” like it did last week. No, I don’t know what she meant when she said that. 🙂
Stop scaring me, Derek!! 🙂
Chad/Cheryl: Tango and 60’s Jive – Oh boy. Jive should be a disaster, but he’s got hope with the Tango. I don’t see any way that Cheryl can do the dancing in the Jive for him like she’s had to do recently, without it being VERY obvious. Is he going to get called on the lack of flicks and kicks, etc? No clean content? Tango? Should be okay, I think.
Chad and Cheryl talk about their dances – Chad is gaining confidence.
Erin/Maks: Argentine Tango and 80’s Rumba – Okay, they say Maks is dressed as Don Johnson in Miami Vice and that Erin is doing Flashdance. How is Miami Vice romantic Rumba-worthy? Am I missing something? I’m wracking my brain. Is this going to be another moment that I don’t understand? In any case, it won’t matter – she’s getting SO much press right now (Kimmel, Leno), plus she was in the bottom two last week, so her fans will be voting maniacs – or they should be. Depending on what Maks has in mind, she will either be excellent or just fine – but like I said, it won’t matter.
Erin and Maks – cover a lot of ground:
Evan/Anna: Waltz and Futuristic Cha Cha – The Waltz will likely be stunning, but I doubt very much he gets another 30. The judges aren’t rolling that way – unless he’s not getting the votes I think he is. 🙂 Futuristic Cha Cha?? Does Anna have it in her? If I see a faux hawk and lights on their costumes, I’m calling foul. 🙂 Cha cha could be challenging when he doesn’t have a group with him – he still has hip issues, but with his fanbase it ain’t no big thing. I don’t think. 🙂
Evan and Anna talk about their dances and training (Sorry John, I’m really loving Anna):
Niecy/Louis: Viennese Waltz and 90’s Paso – Well, I don’t know what to say about this. What does a 90’s Paso look like? And how can the judges tell it’s a 90’s Paso? As much as I love Niecy, I don’t think she’s sharp enough for either of these dances at this stage of the competition. If there is ANY justice, this show now belongs to Evan, Nicole and Erin, with an honorable mention by Chad in whom I have seen improvement. Don’t get me wrong, Niecy has improved too (she might even be better than Kelly was at this stage) – but not enough to compete with Evan, Nicole, Erin and Chad. If we are talking “fair” and we all know this show ain’t fair most of the time.
I couldn’t find a comparable video to the ones above where they talk about their dances, but I LOVE this video of Niecy and Louis. Sometimes she wears on me, but she’s pretty damn funny. 🙂 And Louis is too!
Random Musings and Predictions
Who do I think is going home this week? The short answer is Niecy – but I think it could be a very interesting week, to say the least. I think either Nicole or Evan could find themselves in the bottom 2, more likely Nicole than Evan. Why? Well, bear with me because it’s a complicated thought and it’s really hard to tell how and why people vote for who they vote for. The following is MY opinion on the voting process – I have no insider knowledge. If I did, I wouldn’t be here. 🙂
The average non-internet dwelling people who likely make up at least 80 percent of the viewing audience (if not a LOT more) probably vote for either who they consider the best dancer, or whoever their personal favorite is. I would imagine that their voting breaks down in the order that is spouted by the entertainment shows and Vegas odds makers: Nicole/Evan, Erin, Chad and Niecy. BUT, how many times do those people vote? One phone line and one internet account? One or the other? And how many vote? I would also wager that most of them see maybe one entertainment show, most likely Entertainment Tonight, if that.
That leaves the other 20 percent (or much less) of the voting population. These people (and I include myself and everyone reading this) represent the extremes of the population. They see a lot of internet and traditional media, they develop a serious favorite and vote like crazy – multiple times. They *follow* dancing with the stars. Some of them have a favorite professional dancer who they will vote for every time, like me. Some of them are fans of a given celebrity and vote like crazy for them. Then there are those that are just fans of the show and who develop a favorite couple not being a fan of the celeb or the pro going in. So which of those three groups vote the most? Well, I’m inclined to believe that the person with the biggest fanbase going in wins because those people are PASSIONATE.
In terms of this season, that person has to be Evan, going by all previous barometers of who wins the show. Evan’s fans most likely are the demographic who vote, much like Kristi and Shawn. Nicole also has a big fanbase and she is paired with, arguably, the most popular professional dancer (of the men, at least). While Derek’s fans will vote like crazy, do Nicole’s? Pop Stars don’t WIN, normally because their demographic is younger and not inclined to vote as much – they may not have even watched the show before. The exceptions are Joey and Donny, but they are older and male with fanbases that intersect the DWTS demographic. Is it because female pop stars coincide with ringers? Doubt it – more likely it’s because their fanbases don’t match the typical DWTS demographic. Past history shows that female pop stars don’t fare as well as Olympic Gold Medalists and Football players. Which brings us to Chad. The football players who have done very well have not only been very popular, but they’ve danced better than Chad has, which is why I don’t think Chad will make the finals.
A third thing at work here is visibility. The media. Who’s getting the media? Erin, Chad and Niecy. Now, granted, Kate got the lions share of the media and got the boot, but she was also a horrible dancer. It’s hard to say how the relative lack of visibility will affect Nicole and Evan. Really, just Nicole because Evan’s got that big, DWTS demographic-matching, fanbase. Erin has been EVERYWHERE this week both good (Kimmel, Leno) and bad (The View), plus ALL of the entertainment shows. She is literally everywhere. To a lesser extent, Chad and Niecy are getting media too – Chad because of his showmancing of Cheryl and Niecy because she has a strangle hold on ET and The Insider. She works for the Insider and the same company owns ET. So will all the media help? Hurt? Or have no impact? I’ll tell you a secret – it impacts me because I see all of it. I have a TiVo that picks up all of those shows – it takes me less than half an hour to fast forward through all those shows looking for interesting bits of DWTS news. That is why I won’t be voting for Erin/Maks if they were to outlast Nicole/Derek, I find Chad increasingly charming, love Niecy, and I GET Nicole. And Evan is just a doll. But really, how many people are there out there that do the same? Is performing well on show night enough to remind people you exist? I dunno – Nicole hasn’t been getting the best edits. Neither has Erin, but she has a huge sympathy factor in play here that Nicole doesn’t get. Nicole has Derek who is well liked, Erin has Maks who might have turned some off with his temper tantrums. Who knows?
In conclusion, based on my thoughts outlined above, here’s how I think it goes, prior to seeing the dances:
Evan/Anna – Safe, because of a bad-ass fanbase and no small amount of dancing talent.
Erin/Maks – Safe, because she was in the bottom two last week AND Elizabeth Hasselbeck was an ass to her. Sympathy and highly motivated fans.
Nicole/Derek – Likely safe, but possible bottom 2 due to lack of visibility, non-DWTS fanbase of the PCD. Her fans (and Derek’s) need to STEP IT UP.
Chad/Cheryl – Danger Zone, but likely safe due to charm and the football player fan contingent. Unlike Erin/Maks, he and Cheryl are successfully working the are they/aren’t they showmance angle.
Niecy/Louis – Danger Zone, probably going home.
Now, it’s entirely possible that the scoring will be such that it’s a foregone conclusion who will stay and who will go. That’s why I do the math after the dancing. The above sort of assumes that the scores will be close again – but it also acknowledges that at this point in the game, the scores don’t mean all that much.
I’m feeling quite snarky this week. Courtney’s in a bad mood – you’ve been warned. 🙂
Most Bizarre Costuming – Cheryl & Chad’s see-through ensemble Heidi: So, this was like 1820’s porn or something? She’s wearing the hoop but not the actual dress over the top? Courtney: I think I was more perturbed by Chad’s matching see-through sport jacket with no shirt underneath. I think there was a method to their madness – Chad is admittedly better at the Latin dances, so they figured if they made their costumes feel more like Latin costumes than ballroom ones, they might fare better…hehe. Well, something must’ve worked, because they got undeservedly high scores…AGAIN.
Heidi: Don’t worry, the judges will make up for it next week when they have their “off the meds” week.
Most Improved Tweeter – Evan Lysacek Heidi: Hey!!! Evan stopped spamming me about voting for him. He’s like down to two tweets on show day!! Now, if he would stop talking about his freakin’ private jets…it just occurred to me that he probably gets paid for those tweet. Courtney: I’ll have to take your word for it – I stopped following Evan after tweet number 1,475,236 asking me to vote for him. Thankfully, Anna has left the begging to Evan, and has only tweeted a few times asking for votes. Good girl 🙂
Biggest “Get Out of Jail Free” Card – Maksim Chmerkovskiy Heidi: So, he removes clothing (gimmick) and breaks hold in a quickstep, his partner is off time (and correct in calling him a five year old) and he still gets a 9 from Len?? Gee, Derek and Nicole broke hold, had gimmicks did a BETTER DANCE and got a 7 from Len. And people wonder why I throw my Blackberry at the TV. Edited: Okay, so maybe “free pass” was a poor choice of words…perhaps the bottom two was payback? 🙂 Courtney: Week 2 of Maks the Petulant Asshole. Last week he threw a tantrum while getting his scores – then proceeded to bitch and moan about it all week in the media. Erin practically BEGS him to not take his clothes off this week, he drops 4+ F-bombs in a matter of seconds, and storms out – and STILL insists on removing his clothing during their quickstep, which I still think is what threw Erin off at the beginning. And then, karma strikes – they end up in the bottom 2. But of course, they get a stay of execution and we lose Pam instead. All I have to say is that Maks had better be really, really, REALLY thankful that he’s around next week, after the crap he’s been pulling. NOT COOL.
The Cheesiest “I told you so” Moment: Tom B calls Evan the “comeback kid”. Heidi: Not Tom’s fault – producers/script writers, you are SO fucking predictable!!! Courtney: Oh, but it has such a nice ring to it 😉 Kidding! Just another glaring example of storyboarding – right down to what the hosts are saying…which is why Brooke still sounds stilted and awkward. She’s trying to rememember the wording they told her to use to explain Evan’s rise back to the top! Thankfully, we have Tom to also throw in perfect little gems off the top of his head…
Funniest Side Note: Tom B – “Cause that’s how we roll” in reaction to audience boos. Heidi: LOL – I love the man’s ad libs – I can’t help it!! Courtney: In that moment, I think Tom & Chad became homeboys.
Best Celeb “Shell Removal” – Evan Lysacek Heidi: dude is coming out of his shell in a big way. Omega Sheep?? Dude, she’s RUSSIAN!! Don’t be talking like that to her, she could remove your balls with a fingernail. Hilarious. Courtney: Tread carefully, my friend – not only is she Russian, she’s a redhead. A REDHEAD. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.
Pro Least Ready to be Back on the Dance Floor – Mark Ballas Heidi: Dude, big slip like you had in that pro dance after a knee injury – not good. Surely you could have sat out another week or two for your own good? And so Derek could take your place in the dance? 🙂 Just a little selfish, I’m being. Courtney: Ugh. The spaz came back. And the fact that they had him paired with Chelsie? Oy. But that’s not the only thing wrong with that dance…
Song that Should NEVER Be Heard on DWTS Again: “Hey Soul Sister” by Train Courtney: First, they laid ruin to it vocally when they had Peter Brady sing it (rather, warble it) for Aiden & Edyta’s quickstep. Then, they had a random assortment of pros dancing a positively bizarre mashup to it – did they let Mark choreograph that monstrosity while he was still coming off the anesthesia? It started off with Mark & Chelsie doing something kinda slow & lyrical, then all of a sudden, Dmitry & Lacey are doing a frantic jive. Tony & Cheryl show up at some point and do something sort of samba-y, and then they’re all doing this cheesy, weird, jazzy/show choir/seizure choreography. I literally said “WTF is this crap?!” out loud. Heidi: It was just very, very strange. I don’t know what to say, really. And I like Train, usually. I will say, in all seriousness, if Mark is trying to get out of DWTS, there are less painful ways than dancing way too soon on a knee injury that was described so seriously a few weeks ago. Of course, this show isn’t prone to DRAMA or anything…
The “So Perky, it’s a Whole New Level of Cheese” Award: Melissa Rycroft Heidi: Help me, sugar shock, throat is closing up…I’d tell her “don’t quit your day job” if I thought she had a day job. 🙂 Seriously, Melissa is okay, she’s just too cheerleader for me sometimes. Like today. Courtney: Hang in there, Heidi – I know it’s hard to be cheerful right now! She may be irritatingly peppy, but at least she can form insightful thoughts on the fly – unlike some hosts I know.
Most Impressive Demonstration of Flexibility – Louis’ full split, honorable mention for Anna’s split lift with Evan Heidi: Dear lord, Louis, I don’t have “family jewels” but I twinged in sympathy anyway. Courtney: Back in the day, when Louis was still competing as a pro, he was known for his flexibilty – no other male pro out there could stretch as far as that little Dutch rubber band. I got a little nostalgic last night when I could see him going for it 🙂 And while women are built to be more flexible, I have to give Anna props for the split lift she did with Evan – she kept those legs straight & spread and didn’t falter for a second.
Most Welcome Return to the Ballroom: Karina Smirnoff Heidi: That was an excellent pro dance. Oh Karina, how I’ve missed thee. Courtney: I feel like we don’t have enough female pros on the show anymore that are true TECHNICIANS – Karina’s feet, legs, torso, arms, and head are always in perfect position for every dance she’s doing. She’s so damn precise, and she wrings every last bit of energy out of every move she makes. Electrifying. They’d be foolish not to bring her back next season!
Most Shudder Inducing Commercial: The Bachelorette Heidi: Oh ick. Court, yell at me when you realize I’m watching that trash. Courtney: Not a problem, dearie – if I recall, I think I scolded you for watching Jake when he was still on The Bachelor, hehe. Is it just me, or does Allie look like she’s 12 years old? I won’t go any further…I know John has a thing for blondes, so he prolly thinks she’s cute as a button 😉 Heidi: sigh…yes, you yelled at me. But I have this thing for trainwrecks and lack of fun shit to do on Monday nights.
The Ryan Seacrest Cheeseball Award: The DWTS script writers for the blatant rip off of Ryan’s pre-commercial tease “…when we come back.” Heidi: Geez, people, don’t imitate the crap show with the falling ratings, ‘k?? Courtney: And actually, Seacrest has been catching some flack this season too – his standoffs with Simon, off-color comments, and generally drunk behavior has been raising eyebrows for weeks now. Guess he picked up the cray-cray right where Paula left off, eh? Heidi: Did you see the results show tonight (yes, I had to see Gaga and Harry)?? Did you HEAR what Ryan said to Harry? I don’t think I can actually repeat it in polite company. Well, yeah, okay, I can. Harry is joking with Ellen about a play rivaly and Harry says, to Ellen: “Eyes away from me” and Ryan pops in with “Eyes away from his organ” – Yo, Harry wasn’t playing an organ, and there was no other way to take that comment in that context. Dude is on some crack or he’s got one job too many. Or he has a huge crush on Harry and that was what ya call a Freudian Slip. Take your pick. 🙂
Well, that’s all for this week folks. Tune in next week for more snark, the occassional swoon, and just plain bitching. It’s what we do. 🙂
Okay, I admit I was a little bit surprised at one couple in the bottom two. Erin and Maks. Does make me wonder if Maks is his own worst enemy, though. If it had been Evan or Nicole, I would say fans got too over confident…but Erin was in fourth place at the end of the night. Tom B kept making a point about them being in the “bottom 2”, so I don’t even think they were playing – except maybe at rallying her fans to get their crap together. 🙂 For those of you cussing me, waiting to find out who DID go home – Pam/Damian. My condolences, Courtney. I wish she were staying too, for what it’s worth. Of the six that remained, I found Nicole, Evan and Pam to be the most entertaining, for different reasons. As Tom said, the double entendre quotient will decrease significantly. The best part was – she made more than half of them herself!!
For those of you wondering just what the heck I was talking about when I was calling Elizabeth Hasselback nasty (but apropos) names —> Elizabeth is less than smart regarding Erin Way to set us back several decades, Liz!! <----sarcasm You know my fondness for Erin decreases with every week that passes, but that was totally uncalled for.
Heidi: Called Pam exactly (and unfortunately) right. Was surprised to see Erin in the bottom 2, although I did point out that it could happen to anyone.
Courtney: Was working (unsuccessfully) the power of positive thinking and called Niecy going home with Pam in the bottom 2 with her.
Marianya predicted which couple would get what score – pre-dance, so it’s considerably more difficult. Here’s how she did this week:
Marianya gave Team Gaga the edge (correct) and called Niecy/Chad as bottom two (incorrect). All things considered, Marianya did well since there was so much overscoring going on. 🙂
Heidi: Hey!! Called it right again, but so NOT happy about it!! I think with Pam gone, and Erin having been in the bottom 2, it may finally be Niecy’s time next week. Erin’s fans will rally (unless Maks loses control again), I don’t think Chad was ever in danger, and if Nicole’s fans are smart they will realize how easy it would be to switch Erin for Nicole in that red light of doom.
Marianya: Ugh I totally forgot about the natural scoring curve up from the midpoint of the season onward. Ah well… it looks like that Erin’s scores aren’t going to help her without the fanbase… either that or people are just plain annoyed with her and Maks by now.
I’m upset that Pamela was sent home, I think she still has a lot of legs in her run than some of the other couples, plus I’m no where near as annoyed by her as I am with Chad and Erin. But I try not to let subjectivity take over
I still haven’t seen the show yesterday (after driving for two and a half hours straight I just wanted to go to bed) and tonight didn’t record so I have to catch up tomorrow… though from all the ranting that went on I’m wondering if it’s even worth it.
Anyway it’ll be interesting to see who is going to join Even and (most likely) Nicole in the finals… it could be Erin (closest in technique) or Chad (strong fan base) or Niecy (everything else?). Guess we’re going to have to wait and see.
Are The Insider people superfreak tall or is Cheryl very short? As much as Erin’s ‘tude annoys me, Elizabeth Hasselbeck is an idiot for her comments regarding her. Stupid. As the Gawker said, “Feminism: You’re doing it WRONG.” Just sayin’.
Tony is a class act!! Helping Chad! Cheryl’s B-Day Party
First things first – everyone PLEASE give to the Red Cross, if you are able. Nashville has been hit by a 1000 year flood. Hundreds (thousands?) of homes are under water, downtown landmarks are taking on water – not only will homeowners be impacted for weeks or months to come, but Nashville’s tourism industry has taken a serious hit. Locales never before flooded are under water – like the Country Music Hall of Fame, historic Opryland Hotel and the Grand Ole Opry. One of our two water plants are under water, so it’s conservation time – pray the water doesn’t reach the other plant. It’s devastating. If you want to read about it, Channels 2, 4 and 5 out of Nashville all have websites which document a lot of the damage. It’s been a very sad few days here in Nashville.
The Storyboarding was unbelievable last night. Erin’s best dance?? I see they are on crack once again!! Erin was off time from Maks, they broke hold, there were gimmicks. If anyone else had danced that dance (hello, Nicole) they would have been skewered. Certainly not worthy of a 27 – too sloppy, especially when compared to Nicole’s Waltz or Evan’s Tango.
Then Chad – who I think actually did better than Erin – gets a 9 from Len? Boy, are they desperate to make this into a horserace or what? Then Nicole does a near perfect dance so she should get 10’s right, since they overscored everyone else so far? HELL NO. I suppose they will give Niecy a 10? No, but they give her a point better than Pam which is crap. But, in hindsight, how it shakes out after the group dances it’s almost like they knew what the teams would get. Hmmm…say it ain’t so! I will say that I thought Evan did a great job and deserved a 30. The only reason it pisses me off is because Len should have given Nicole a ten long before now – like for her perfect Tango. But part of the reason Evan gets a 30 is so that he can have an “amazing comeback!!!!” That said, Evan had the most crowd pleasing type of dance of the night AND the dance best suited to his abilities – the only Argentine Tango of the night. Going up against waltzes and mediocre quicksteps, of course he will shine.
Carrie Ann saying that Nicole is the best dancer ever on the show is like the kiss of death – or Carrie knows she’s not getting the votes so she thought she’d get that out there just in case.
All these other sites or people that act surprised that Evan is now up there with Nicole – wake up, people. He’s always been up there with Nicole and he’s always been destined to win because of his own talent and because of his fanbase. It amazes me that there are still people who honestly (or not so honestly) think the best dancer (Nicole) wins. Not true – the biggest fanbase wins and that is still Evan (probably). The only reason Evan was down at 21 last week was because of more judge storyboarding. His dance was worth more than a 21, easily.
After the individual dances, the celebrities were ranked in this order:
Courtney and I should post a transcript of our conversation (via Twitter) during the show because I am a great prognosticator (when it comes to the judges, anyway) and she’s not too shabby herself. 🙂 It was SO easy to predict what the judges were going to do. I even said, “If Team Madonna gets a 24, that will put Evan/Nicole in a tie for first place” – which is exactly what they want and exactly what happened. It also knocked Erin/Maks down a couple pegs and Niecy into last place where they want her.
The Team Dance Scores
Add the two scores together for each celeb, then add all the scores together to get the total judges points awarded (311). Then you divide a celebs score by the total points awarded to get their judges percentage:
It’s weeks like this where the results show can be very interesting, where someone popular could go home if their fans assume they are safe. There is just a tiny difference between Evan/Nicole and Niecy – not many more votes for Nicole to go home instead of one of the lower scorers. Or Erin to get bumped. Do I think that will happen this week? Not really, but you never know. How did the fans of those already booted vote? Did they go for Niecy? Pam? If they do in large numbers –well, no one is safe.
For Niecy to stay and for someone else to go, she needs to get approximately 6,450 votes more than either Pam or Erin per 1 million votes cast. That is not very many, depending on how many people actually vote. If only 500k vote every week, that number shrinks to 3,225. I will say right now that I don’t think Erin is going anywhere. Pam on the other hand, is in danger. This is a toss-up, really, because neither woman danced particularly well last night. But where are Jake’s fans, Aiden’s fans and the others likely to put their votes (if they still vote)?? Probably NOT to Pam.
What about the potential for a “shocking” (not really) elimination? Evan and Nicole are tied for first place – what would it take for either one of them to be eliminated? Well, ALL the people below them would have to get more votes, obviously, which adds up to:
Niecy – 16,100 votes per 1 million
Pam – 9,700 votes per 1 million
Erin – 9,700 votes per 1 million
Chad – 6,430 votes per 1 million
So, if 1 million people vote, the above numbers represent how many MORE votes each contestant has to get than either Nicole or Evan for Nicole or Evan to be eliminated. Now, do you think this is possible? Well, I refuse to believe that Evan won’t win, but I think it could happen to Nicole. Probably not this week, but next week? Nicole/Derek fans better be stepping it up.
I’m sad to say that I think Pam will be leaving us tonight and that Niecy lives to dance another day. Sorry Courtney. But I would not be surprised if anyone left (other than Evan), with the scores as tight as they are.
*Cough* *Cough* Excuse me…*cough* Sorry, I just – *cough* *clears throat* I apologize, I was just choking on all the smoke that the judges were blowing up some of the couples’ asses tonight. That, and the producers trying to shove Evan down my throat at every opportunity they could.
Heidi and I were in agreement – tonight’s show kinda pissed us off (at least when Heidi could see the show – her power kept going out, poor girl!). Once again, there were whipping girls (Nicole & Pam, primarily) and golden girls (Erin & Niecy), and both of the guys got a thorough tongue bathing by the judges tonight – they just loved the heck out of both Chad & Evan. But hey, guess it was time to shuffle around the praise and the punishment – they have to avoid the appearance of storyboarding! Oh wait…too late. Anyway…I guess I had better get on with it…
1.) Evan & Anna – Really no surprise here – Heidi called it when she predicted these two would be back in a big way this week, whether they deserved it or not – and what better way to make it back to the top than with the first perfect 30 of the season? It was a good Argentine tango, I’ll give them that; but I don’t think it was 30-worthy – it seemed like Anna doing most of the work, with Evan doing a good job of “being there” for her. I still say the closest to perfect we’ve come this season was Derek & Nicole’s standard tango. I’m glad Evan is back at the top of the board neck-and-neck with Nicole, really I am…but really? A 30? Seems a little too…perfect. But I guess they at least gave the impression of leveling the playing field when they gave the team cha-cha to Team Gaga, which conveniently tied Evan & Nicole for the top spot…hmmm. Oh-em-gee, it really is a nail-biter, isn’t it? 😛 Oh well…these two are safe, and always have been, and always will be. Dangit Evan, why you gotta be such a nice guy? 😀
2.) Nicole & Derek – Ok, I will admit, Nicole did seem a little distracted during her waltz this week. Granted, it really was lovely (the spin at the end was especially beautiful), but I almost felt a part of her just wasn’t really present in the dance. But I don’t think Erin’s quickstep was as good at Nicole’s waltz, by any means…but again, some heavy-duty storyboarding going on here, trying to give the impression of it being “anyone’s game”. These two were the obvious high point of Team Gaga, and Nicole seemed to fare better than the two couples who had already done cha-cha. I’m beginning to think these two will be safe all the way to the finals, for the simple reason that they’re trying to create the impression that Evan & Nicole (and now Erin, to some degree) are all vying very closely for the top spot. And if they get sent home – really, what are they gonna do? Try and make Chad out to be the “dark horse”? Hehe.
3.) Erin & Maks – Aaaaaand the bickering continues between these two. And the removal of clothes. And the messy footwork & wonky arms. But hey, we the audience don’t know a thing about ballroom dancing, so the judges must be right – these two MUST be as good as Nicole & Derek! (Did you catch the sarcasm there?) I’m sorry, but scoring a quickstep where the first 15 seconds consisted of the couple fumbling to remove clothing (and where the celeb makes a glaring mistake while the camera is on her) the same as a waltz where there were maybe 2 small missteps just seems criminal. I honestly don’t quite know why Maks is so insistent on stripping during his routines – if he focused more on actual steps, I think he’d lessen the risk of Erin getting flustered and off-time. But again, what we’re witnessing here is the judges building their ideal top 3 – what better way to create suspense than 3 ringers duking it out for the trophy? However, I wouldn’t be shocked if these two ended up in a “shocker” bottom 2 – not getting eliminated, but put there to create suspense. Gotta keep us viewers on our toes!
4.) Chad & Cheryl – I’m gonna put it out there: no one will send Cheryl home the day after her birthday. I just don’t see it happening. Even if this was one of the most kindergarten Viennese waltzes I’ve ever seen, with Cheryl doing most of the work again. If they’re trying to paint Chad as the dark horse this season, it’s not working – from what I could see on Twitter & Facebook, I’m not the only one that thought Chad was suspiciously overscored again. He was lucky to end up on Team Gaga, and that Cheryl managed to create a solo where he could spend most of the time swaggering around doing turns like we know he loves to. I’m not really even sure these two will end up in the bottom 2 – I think the judges did a pretty good job of securing his safety with the overscoring, plus there are just a heck of a lot of maniacal Bengals fans out there that are probably using every pay phone in Cincy to dial in their votes.
5.) Pam & Damian – Poor Pam. She really seemed exceptionally nervous this week, and unfortunately it showed in both her waltz & her solo in the team cha-cha. She felt a little rushed at times, and struggled to regain her footing after spins. But I feel like I have to point out that her waltz choreo was more difficult than both Niecy & Chad’s – props to Damian for not holding out, we know she can handle it! Once again, she nailed the character of both dances – I thought she was demure & graceful in the waltz, and turned on the hair-flippin’ sexpot act in the cha-cha. I’m just hoping that Team Viva La Pam can pull it together and keep her another week…really guys, if she gets sent home over Niecy – my head very well might explode. She can be in the bottom 2 (ok, I’d feel much better if she wasn’t, but still)…just don’t send her home! PUH-LEASE!
6.) Niecy & Louis – I cringed when watching the Insider earlier tonight – there was some serious pimping of Niecy’s injury going on. However, I was actually surprised they didn’t even mention it on the actual show…makes me wonder if they’re ready for Niecy to go bye-bye, too. I could definitely tell she wasn’t moving to her full extent tonight – her quickstep barely made it off the ground…which is why I was that much saltier that got a better score than Pam’s waltz. And all this nonsense about it being her “best dance”? Oy. I get it, producers – we have to make it seem like it’s not obvious she’s going home. Her solo was the most elementary on Team Madonna’s, as well – and if I recall, she bungled it up a bit, too. I think it’s gonna be cutting it close between her & Pam going home – but I’m gonna be optimistic, and say that it’s gonna be Niecy, if there is any sort of justice in this world. I’m kinda tired of hearing about her jiggly parts.
Ok, rant over. Now that I’ve gotten that out of my system, I think I can actually go back and re-watch the show and scout for cheesecake-worthy moments! Holler at me, people – did you guys notice the fishy scoring? Do you think Niecy’s injury will save her from elimination this week? Will Evan & Anna get the encore? (Probably). Speak your mind!
Seeing as there was a little confusion as to how I make these comparisons/predictions here’s a quick recap of the process.
I take a look at scores of previous celebs in accordance to the professional they danced with and then narrowed that down to specific dances that a pro has done with past celebs. (Example: If Chelsie and Jake were dancing the Argentine Tango tomorrow, the scores I would use are all previous celebs that have danced the Argentine Tango with Chelsie in past seasons).
Now if there are not enough scores to make any kind of reasonable assumption then I look back to various celebs that have danced that particular dance that is closest to this season’s celeb (in regards to primary profession) and add those scores to the prediction (Example: with Jake Pavelka I would use past reality stars as a basis).
Niecy Nash/Louis van Amstel – Quickstep
Season 9: (w/ Kelly Osbourne, Week 9): 27/30
Season 3: (w/ Monique Coleman, Week 7): 27/30
Season 2: (w/ Lisa Rinna, Week 6): 27/30
Chad Ochocinco/Cheryl Burke – Viennese Waltz
Season 8: (w/ Gilles Marini, Week 7): 27/30
Season 7: (w/ Maurice Greene, Week 6): 21/30
Season 6: (w/ Cristian de la Fuente, Week 7): 25/30
Nicole Scherzinger/Derek Hough – Slow Waltz
Season 9: (w/ Joanna Krupa, Week 6): 26/30
Season 8: (w/ Lil Kim, Week 9): 25/30
– Since there is so little data, I also looked at past celebs that have been in band groups (NSync, 98 Degrees, etc)
Season 4: (Joey Fatone/Kym Johnson, Week 8): 26/30
Pamela Anderson/Damian Whitewood – Slow Waltz
– Since Damian is a new pro I looked to various celebs that have danced the Waltz and are known primarily as a television actor (normally I would have done past Playboy models, but there weren’t any available)
Season 9: (Melissa Joan Hart/Mark Ballas, Week 6): 20/30
Season 4: (Ian Ziering/Cheryl Burke, Week 4): 24/30
Season 3: (Joey Lawrence/Edyta Sliwinska, Week 4): 27/30
Season 3: (Mario Lopez/Karina Smirnoff, Week 8): 28/30
Season 2: (Lisa Rinna/Louis van Amstel, Week 1): 19/30
Evan Lysacek/Anna Trebunskaya – Argentine Tango
– Since Anna has not danced the Argentine Tango with a celeb before I had to use data from previous celebs that are Olympians that have danced the Argentine Tango
Season 9: (Louie Vito/Chelsie Hightower, Week 5): 22/30
Season 8: (Shawn Johnson/Mark Ballas, Week 10): 30/30
For the team dances I’ve decided to provide for you the scores the celebs have received for the Cha Cha they have done, and if they have not done the Cha Cha yet (looking at Evan and Nicole) I’ve provided the scores for the other Latin dances instead.
In regards to the team dances, I believe that Team Gaga will have the edge in regards to scores… this would undoubtedly help Chad since to me Chad and Niecy would be in the bottom two this week with Niecy going home (though I wouldn’t be surprised if Chad is swapped with Pamela).