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Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 5 Predictions

After taking a week off (I actually flew out to New York two weekends ago) and as thus wasn’t able to rework my spreadsheet in time for the predictions of Week 4. But I am back and raring to go with Week 5 predictions.

So without further ado… here are the predictions that you were missing last week (with thanks from Heidi for putting together who is dancing what):

Since we are heading towards what I call the “middle third” of the season the only scores from the previous seasons that I will be focusing on will be those from Weeks 4 thru 7. Because of this breakdown… in the case of Peta she has done a Rumba before but in the first few weeks of Season 13 with Donald.

Consequently those celebrities in their 60s have done a Quickstep but again only in the first two weeks of their season… so to stick with some sort of accuracy I chose not to include those scores.

However, with those missing scores it seems rather odd for Kirstie to be placed so high (though it could be possible) while Melissa is placed so low… Again as proven in past prediction posts… they tend to be a crap shoot… so take the above with a grain of salt.

In the meantime let’s look at how the scores went at the end of the day for Week 3 and (from what is available in Week 4).
Read more..

October 22, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Week 3 Predictions

This is going to be an off week on so many levels… I can just sense it. So I am going to apologize for the tardiness of last week and this week’s votes… Looking at the calculations and predictions this week (as always many thanks to Heidi for finding out Who is Dancing What:

I am actually surprised that Tony Dovolani has not done a Samba this early in the competition. That can’t be right. Well I looked at the past seasons and the earliest that Tony has done a Samba was in Week 5… which for the purposes of the predicted calculations would not be used as Week 5 is considered to be the middle of the seasons and not early.

To be honest I am surprised that Drew Lachey is ranked so low while Bristol Palin *shudders* is placed high. I guess we are going to have to see.

Taking a look at last week’s scores and comparing them with the original predictions:

As you can see the numbers when you compare the predictions to the actual are all over the place. Thus another reason why one cannot use past data for such a subjective sport. However, when one would look at the original scores (when averaged up) what I found to be interesting is that for the most part the rankings of the original scores were similar to the overall rankings of the actual scores. Sure there were a few anomalies here and there (Drew Lachey being the major one), but at least there is some consistency going on.

Like I said before, I apologize for the delay in the posts from last week and this week… and I hope to be more up to date after this week… so bare with me in the meantime.

If I were going to guess at who would most likely be going home based on what I know thus far… with Helio and Drew having already been at the Bottom Two, and this week being a double elimination… It is hard to say. However considering that both Drew and Helio are predicted to be the in the bottom three lowest scoring couples (with Kirstie) my best bet would be on one of them. Helio is most likely to go due to his predicted early eliminiation. Kirstie and Drew are also possibilities at this point based entirely on predictions, even though I would honestly love to see Bristol go too.

So I would bet on Helio going with a toss up between Drew and Kirstie… and Bristol as a wish list elimination.

October 8, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Week 2 Predictions!

As always many thanks to Heidi for this weeks’ Who is Dancing What and When post.

From Heidi’s post here is how the couples will stack up in accordance to past data:

As expected only Peta Murgatroyd and Valentin Chmerkovskiy have yet to work on their respective dance this early in the season. (Peta has worked on the Jive with Donald Driver in Week 8, but for purposes of calculating the prediction scores I chose not to use scores from later in the season when predicting for earlier in the season)

Much like last week, half of the celebrities have danced the same dance in the same week… it will be interesting to see how the scores compare to tonight’s scores on those cases.
Read more..

October 1, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers

All in all, a great start to the All Star season!! A whole bunch of fantastic dancing, with few exceptions, no doubt. And yet…we still have a couple instances of really hinky scoring and other hijinks. So, we’ll give Shawn and Kirstie extremely bad songs for foxtrots, give Gilles and other men PERFECT songs and then we’ll be extra sure and not only pimp Emmett, but overscore him as well. I love Gilles and think he was overscored relative to the other couples, but Emmett?? I smell fish. I’ll just echo Courtney and add…Gilles works for ABC, and Emmett is a football player scoring high on MONDAY Night. The female football audience?? Yeah, that’s not suspicious at all. :::rolls eyes:::

But, after all my moaning….those scores are essentially irrelevant because the exactly wrong person was the low scorer and by a significant margin. Anyway…

The Judges Scores and Percentages

As you probably deduced all on your own, Pam and Tristan are in real trouble. The judges were absolutely right when they called her out on her lack of preparation – seems clear they are paying attention to studio time this season, like they have occasionally in the past, and it’s going to be noted if you don’t do well AND you weren’t putting in the time. It’s the All Star Season. It’s to be expected.

Anyway, what does Pam have to do in order to survive to dance again? Pray. And hope that someone else (Drew? Helio?) is completely forgotten. In terms of votes she needs to do ONE of the following in order to be safe:

–          Pam has to get 7,340 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, OR;

–          She needs to get 9,050 more votes per million votes cast than Bristol, OR;

–          She needs to get 12,660 more votes per million votes cast than Joey, OR;

–          She needs to get 14,470 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR,

–          She needs to get 16,280 more votes per million votes cast than either Drew, Helio or Kelly, OR;

–          She needs to get 18,100 more votes per million votes cast than either Shawn or Apolo

I could go on but I won’t. You get the picture. The only one of these that I could see happening is Melissa or Helio…with an outside shot of Drew.  I don’t think that Pam has the juice to get past either Bristol or Kirstie….or Joey….but I’m going to say right now that Melissa and Helio could be surprises. If there is such a thing as a surprise elimination this season.

Anyway, let’s say that by some miracle (and crazy Tristan fans :-) ) Pam survives.  Kirstie is the next lowest scorer. In order to stay in the event that Pam gets past her, she would need the ONE of the following:

–          Kirstie  has to get 1,810 more votes per million votes cast than Bristol, OR;

–          She needs to get  5,430 more votes per million votes cast than Joey, OR;

–          She needs to get 7,240 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR,

–          She needs to get 9,050 more votes per million votes cast than either Drew, Helio or Kelly

Yeah, I think she can do all that easily. I don’t think she’s in trouble. Bristol? Needs ONE of the following to happen if both Kirstie and Bristol survive:

–          Bristol needs to get  3,620 more votes per million votes cast than Joey, OR;

–          She needs to get 5,430 more votes per million votes cast than Melissa, OR,

–          She needs to get 7,240 more votes per million votes cast than either Drew, Helio or Kelly

This is where I’m less sure. I don’t know if Bristol has it this season like she did in her original season. These are the all stars!!

I could go on and on, but at the end of the day, I think Pam is going home.  If there’s a shock, I think it will be Melissa.   If there is a real surprise that I don’t discuss here, I’ll do a numbers wrap up. :-)

September 25, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Season Premiere (Week 1) Predictions!

UPDATE: So I updated the table to include the Actual Scores from Monday’s Premiere of Season 15… Interesting things happening here. The main thing though is that these predicted scores never take into account any kind of under or over scoring in any capacity… so really just take them with a grain of salt. :)

A quick glance between the below table and my elimination predictions… I am looking at Pamela Anderson to have the dubious honor of being the first to go this season. With either Melissa or Kirstie as possibilities.

Many thanks to Heidi for finding out who is dancing what for the season premiere.

Let’s look at the below table before I start explaining what I did differently this time around:

 
RANKING
PREDICTION
ORIGINAL SCORES
ACTUAL SCORES
COUPLE DANCE
AGE
JOB
PRO
RANK
SCORE
WEEK
DANCE
AVE
RANK
SCORE
Emmitt / Cheryl Cha-Cha
12
10
4
11
19
24
24
1
24.5
Gilles / Peta Foxtrot
6
5
8
7
20
24
29
26.5
2
24
Sabrina / Louis Cha-Cha
4
2
11
4
20
26
26
3
22.5
Shawn / Derek Foxtrot
2
1
 
2
23
23
27
25
4
22
Apolo / Karina Cha-Cha
9
6
10
9
20
21
21
4
22
Helio / Chelsie Foxtrot
6
8
3
6
20
22
22
6
21.5
Drew / Anna Foxtrot
6
 
6
8
20
24
26
25
6
21.5
Kelly / Val Cha-Cha
9
11
 
13
18
10
25
17.5
6
21.5
Melissa / Tony Foxtrot
2
7
5
3
21
23
27
25
9
21
Joey / Kym Cha-Cha
9
3
9
5
20
24
24
10
20.5
Bristol / Mark Cha-Cha
4
12
2
10
19
18
18
11
19.5
Kirstie / Maksim Foxtrot
1
4
1
1
23
23
23
23
12
19
Pamela / Tristan Cha-Cha
12
9
7
12
19
21
21
13
17

When I started running the numbers for the season premiere of Dancing with the Stars… and predicting the scores I came across a few anomalies that I thought would amuse you guys:
– No Band Member has ever done the Foxtrot in the first four weeks (first “third”) of any season
– Derek Hough has never done the Foxtrot before in the first four weeks (first “third”) of any season

Interesting conundrum… no?
Read more..

September 24, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Predicted Eliminations w/ Professional Partners (Entire Cast)

UPDATE: Due to a glitch in the original spreadsheet some of the below rankings were incorrect… after double and triple checking the numbers the below predictions are correct in accordance to the spreadsheet… I apologize for any confusion this may cause.

Via today’s announcement we could finally put up a full table with all the stars and how the numbers say they would be eliminated. What I will do is first I will have a table of the Season 15 cast with their categorical breakdowns via professional partner, their current age group, and the occupation they are most known for up to this point.

Then there will be a second table that would show not only how the celebrity stack up in each individual category but what the overall final ranking would be in accordance to the numbers. If you remember from my previous post I highly doubt the rankings are going to change much.

CELEBRITY INDIVIDUAL CATEGORIES

CELEBRITY PROFESSIONAL PARTNER OCCUPATION AGE FINAL RANK
Shawn Johnson Derek Hough Olympian 20s 1st
Apolo Anton Ohno Karina Smirnoff Olympian 30s 2nd
Emmitt Smith Cheryl Burke NFL 40s 3rd
Joey Fatone Kym Johnson Band Member 30s 4th
Sabrina Bryan Louis van Amstel Disney 20s 6th 5th
Bristol Palin Mark Ballas Other 20s 8th 6th
Gilles Marini Peta Murgatroyd Actor 30s 5th 7th
Drew Lachey Anna Trebunskaya Band Member 30s 7th 8th
Kirstie Alley Maks Chmerkovskiy Actress 60s 12th 9th
Melissa Rycroft Tony Dovolani Reality TV Star 20s 13th 10th
Hélio Castroneves Chelsie Hightower Athlete 30s 11th
Kelly Monaco Val Chmerkovskiy Soap Opera Star 30s 9th 12th
Pamela Anderson Tristan MacManus Actress 40s 10th 13th

CELEBRITY INDIVIDUAL CATEGORIES RANKINGS

CELEBRITY PROFESSIONAL PARTNER OCCUPATION AGE FINAL RANK
Shawn Johnson 1st 2nd 1st 1st
Apolo Anton Ohno 8th 6th 2nd 5th 2nd
Emmitt Smith 2nd 1st 12th 3rd
Joey Fatone 7th 5th 4th 5th 5th 4th
Sabrina Bryan 10th 6th 4th 1st 6th 5th
Bristol Palin 3rd 13th 1st 8th 6th
Gilles Marini 4th 8th 8th 5th 5th 7th
Drew Lachey 12th 4th 5th 5th 7th 8th
Kirstie Alley 4th 9th 11th 12th 9th
Melissa Rycroft 12th 11th 12th 1st 13th 10th
Hélio Castroneves 9th 11th 5th 11th
Kelly Monaco 13th 7th 5th 9th 12th
Pamela Anderson 7th 9th 12th 10th 13th

Enjoy!

August 27, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Predicted Eliminations w/ Professional Partners

Thanks to yesterday’s live blog post by Heidi of the announcements of the partnerships on Dancing with the Stars Season 15, I can now provide the predicted eliminations with the professional partners as opposed to previously where the partnerships were not announced.

If you have forgotten, in a previous post I have ranked the announced celebrities in accordance to their normalized averages via their ages at the time of their original season and their occupations and how they would have fared if we were able to clone their professional partner if one professional dancer had multiple celebrities.

And then I had another table that updated their ages to Season 15 and kept their occupations for which they are known for but at that time without the professional partner. So in the below table is a comparison of how each of the celebrities had fared without knowing whom their professional partners are and after the announcement from Monday:

CELEBRITY OCCUPATION AGE RANK w/o PRO S15 PRO PARTNER RANK w/ PRO
Shawn Johnson Olympian 20s 1st Derek Hough 1st
Apolo Anton Ohno Olympian 30s 2nd Karina Smirnoff 2nd
Emmitt Smith NFL 40s 5th Cheryl Burke 3rd
Joey Fatone Band Member 30s 4th Kym Johnson 4th
Gilles Marini Actor 30s 6th Peta Murgatroyd 5th
Drew Lachey Band Member 30s 3rd Anna Trebunskaya 6th
Bristol Palin Other 20s 11th Mark Ballas 7th
Kelly Monaco Soap Opera Star 30s 7th Val Chmerkovskiy 8th
Pamela Anderson Actress 40s 12th Tristan MacManus 9th
Hélio Castroneves Athlete 30s 8th Chelsie Hightower 10th
Kirstie Alley Actress 60s 10th Maks Chmerkovskiy 11th
Melissa Rycroft Reality TV Star 20s 9th Tony Dovolani 12th

In generalizations it would appear that the professional partner does not change how the celebrity would do on the show, however when you really compare the two different rankings there are some significant jumps.

For example Emmitt Smith jumping from 5th place without Cheryl Burke to 3rd when paired with her. Drew Lachey was originally slated for 3rd place before we found out his professional partner who (as we found out) turned out to be Anna Trebunskaya and it dropped him to 6th place.

Bristol Palin’s ranking jumped from 11th without her professional partner, Mark Ballas, who moved her up to 7th place. A similar jump up in placement happened for Pamela Anderson when she is paired with Tristan MacManus.

This is what the numbers show me… and hopefully over the coming weeks the numbers would reveal if in previous seasons there was warped scoring for the celebrities or not…

August 14, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15: Predicted Eliminations w/o Professional Partners

So now that we know who most of the cast is I decided to whip up a quick breakdown of how the Season 15 cast would fare against one another now.

However, then I started thinking: How cool would it be to see how they would have fared against one another with the professional partners that they had before? Yes, I know that there are duplicates here and there but if you were able to clone those pros… how would the “All Star” cast fare? Well let’s find out!

CELEBRITY PROFESSIONAL ORIGINAL RANK NEW RANK
Apolo Anton Ohno Julianne Hough Winner Winner
Shawn Johnson Mark Ballas Winner 2nd
Drew Lachey Cheryl Burke Winner 3rd
Gilles Marini Cheryl Burke 2nd 4th
Hélio Castroneves Julianne Hough Winner 5th
Emmitt Smith Cheryl Burke Winner 6th
Joey Fatone Kym Johnson 2nd 7th
Bristol Palin Mark Ballas 3rd 8th
Kelley Monaco Alec Mazo Winner 9th
Melissa Rycroft Tony Dovolani 3rd 10th
Kirstie Alley Maksim Chmerkovskiy 2nd 11th
Pamela Anderson Damian Whitewood 6th 12th
VOTABLE CELEBRITIES
Sabrina Bryan Mark Ballas 7th 3rd (before Drew)
Carson Kressley Anna Trebunskaya 8th 12th (before Pamela)
Kyle Massey Lacey Schwimmer 2nd 4th (before Gilles)

An interesting breakdown to be sure… granted probably not accurate but what can you do? On the other hand this is with the assumption that everyone was with their original partner but that’s not going to happen, not by a long shot. So with the information that we do know about the celebrities (occupation, current age) how would they fare on the season? Read more..

July 27, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 10 – The 24-Hour Challenge

Now that we know what the final three couples are going to dance for the 24-hour Challenge, let’s see how they will fare:

DONALD DRIVER
Dance: Cha-Cha
Average Scores:
– Age: 27.190
– Occupation: 26.250
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 27
Predicted Rank: 3rd
Comments: Donald and Peta chose their lowest scoring dance for their 24-hour challenge, the first time they did a Cha-Cha was back in Week 1, it was a 21. With so much room for improvement I have no doubt that Donald would shine, but how much? Let’s look at how previous NFL players in their 30s have done this late in the season.
– Season 3’s Emmitt Smith received a 30 in Week 9
– Season 6’s Jason Taylor received a 24 for Week 10
– Season 11’s Kurt Warner received a 24 and Week 8
For the most part NFL players are oozing with charisma, regardless on the scores that they received. Donald could do better, scoring wise… I’m hoping he’ll get another perfect score.

Read more..

May 22, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 10: The Finals!

Here we go, the last week of the season. Week 10. The following are the dances that the couples are slated to do over the course of Monday/Tuesday:
– Judges Choice: the judges get choose a dance that they would like to the couples to conquer again and the couples will perform it to new music and new choreography
– Freestyle: The anything goes dance… do I really need to describe this to you guys?
– 24-hour Challenge: The couples are allowed to pick a dance but are not given the music until 24-hours before Tuesday night’s show (something similar to the dance off where couples are working on routines/dances the night before Tuesday night’s show)

One thing I want to gripe about is why not have the couple do a dance that they have yet to do? For example Donald has set to do the Salsa, while William is missing a Waltz and Katherine the Tango… I think it would be fairer to give them all new dances… but that’s just me. Ah well. In any case:

DISCLAIMER: At the time of this writing, according to Wikipedia Katherine and Mark are doing the Rumba for their “judges choice” dance, so if there are any changes I may not be able to get to them prior to the show time… and I apologize.

UPDATE: I have updated the Predicted Scores with Katherine’s dance the Paso Doble

WILLIAM LEVY
Dance 1: Cha-Cha
Average Scores:
– Age: 27.190
– Occupation: 24.500
– Professional Partner: 27.000
Predicted Score: 26

Dance 2: Freestyle
Average Scores:
– Age: 28.059
– Occupation: 28.000
– Professional Partner: 28.600
Predicted Score: 28

Predicted Rank: 3rd
Comments: Getting a dance that he did earlier in the season bodes well for William, since he did a Cha-Cha in Week 1 there is a very good chance that he could show off just how much he has improved since then. The other two actors in their 30s that did the Cha-Cha this late in the season:
– Season 3’s Mario Lopez got a 29
– Season 13’s David Arquette got a 24
Personally William is a stronger dancer than David, but not the same caliber as Mario… so getting a 29 would be difficult for me to fathom unless he knocks it out of the park. As for the freestyle:
– Season 3’s Mario Lopez received a 30
– Season 8’s Gilles Marini received a 28
Ironically, both ended up being runners up in their respective seasons… William could end up being a runner up in the current season, but it is hard to tell at this juncture.

Read more..

May 21, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)