Ok that was quite immature of me, but seriously. After the kind of hiatus that I’ve had full of drama what do you expect from me. :) Anyway, the cast has been announced, we know the pairings let’s find out what the numbers say they would fare.
If you’re new to how I calculate the Pre-Season Elimination Predictions please look at Season 11’s Who Has the Edge Part 1, Part 2 as well as Season 12 for information, one of these off-seasons I’ll write a more thorough analysis for you all… but until then, settle for the short form.
Below I’ve taken the time to rank the breakdowns within the following categories: AGE, OCCUPATION and PROFESSIONAL PARTNER so you have an idea of what variables I use before applying them to Season 14’s cast. So here’s a look at how everything ranks as of last season:
AGE is broken down by decades, starting with the teens. It would seem though in general as you get older, the lower the rank (on average), somehow those in their 60s tend to fare rather well… and who knows why? These include George Hamilton, Jerry Springer, John Ratzenberger, Susan Lucci and Kirstie Alley. Maybe this is a reflection of the voting public? Your guess is as good as mine. The age groups in bold are the ones being represented on the show. The ranks go from highest ranking to lowest ranking:
OCCUPATION is a trickier category to break down, because there are a lot of crossover celebrities, or those that happen to be multi-talented. So I try to categorize celebrities based on what they are most known for, not necessarily their most recent occupation (Billy Ray being a Country Singer as opposed to Disney Star). I also separated the Olympians, NBA players and NFL players from all other athletes. Entertainers are those that actually have a little dance background and entertain with not just their voice (Singer) but with their overall personality on stage (imagine Donny and Marie Osmond), Band Member is anyone that happened to be part of a band in their time (98 Degrees, NSync, Spice Girls).
4: Band Member
6: Soap Opera Star
12: Reality TV Star
PROFESSIONAL PARTNERs, whether we like it or not, play a major role in how their celebrity partner does on the show. Being that this is the 14th season of Dancing with the Stars, at this point in time the professional dancers already coming into the season with their own fanbases (Maksim Chmerkovskiy, Derek Hough anyone?). Below are how the professional dancers fared on this show with how many seasons they’ve “competed” on the show. Not included are professional dancers that have permanently left the show.
1: Derek Hough (8 seasons)
2: Julianne Hough (5 seasons)
3: Cheryl Burke (12 seasons)
4: Tristan MacManus (1 season)
5: Maksim Chmerkovskiy (11 seasons)
6: Karina Smirnoff (10 seasons)
7: Kym Johnson (10 seasons)
8: Lacey Schwimmer (6 seasons)
9: Mark Ballas (9 seasons)
10: Louis van Amstel (8 seasons)
11: Chelsie Hightower (5 seasons)
12: Dmitry Chaplin (3 seasons)
13: Tony Dovolani (12 seasons)
14: Anna Trebunskaya (8 seasons)
15: Corky Ballas (2 seasons)
16: Ashly Costa (4 seasons)
17: Jonathan Roberts (7 seasons)
18: Val Chmerkovskiy (1 season)
19: Peta Murgatroyd (1 season)
Stayed tuned as my next post would take all of the above rankings and see how the numbers would rank Season 14’s Dancing with the Stars cast.