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Why Dial Idol Doesn’t Work For DWTS

It seems as though every season, some people either freak out or get excited over what they see on Dial Idol for DWTS - maybe their favorite is in the lead, maybe the couple they hate is in the bottom, maybe a high-scoring couple looks like they aren’t getting votes.  While I agree that it would be great to “pull back the curtain” and get a peek at what the volume of votes for each couple might actually be, I can tell you this right now: it’s a carefully-guarded secret, and TPTB have ways to keep it that way – despite the efforts of supposedly “genius” software like Dial Idol.  So let’s debunk this one, shall we?

First of all, a bit of background on Dial Idol. It’s a software program created in 2005 by Jim Hellriegel, a fan of American Idol, that uses your computer modem to automatically “speed-dial” in votes for your favorite contestant.  It then measures how often a busy signal bounces back on a particular contestant’s phone number, and, assuming that a greater number of busy signals bouncing back means that more people are trying to vote for a particular contestant, then the more votes a certain contestant must be getting. The idea was pretty clever (at the time), and despite efforts by the FOX legal team to get it shut down due to copyright infringement, it’s perfectly legal, and has correctly predicted the winners of 5 seasons of Idol.

So, you ask, why can’t the same program work for DWTS?

REASON #1: We have a limited number of votes.

Keep in mind, this software program was created for Idol, and on that show, there is no limit on the number of times you can vote; so, in theory, you could get hundreds of votes in for your favorite contestant before the phone lines closed.  Hence, the more votes you can dial in, the more often you either do or don’t get a busy signal, and the more accurate the Dial Idol results are going to be. We don’t have that luxury on DWTS – we get a small, limited amount of votes each week, meaning we have fewer opportunities to measure a potential busy signal.  For those with a bit of knowledge in statistics, the smaller your sample size is = the less accurate your results are going to be. And the sample size for DWTS is going to be much, much smaller than it is for Idol, due to the voting limit.  Really and truly, it almost seems like a waste of time to even use Dial Idol to get your phone votes in to begin with – you’d reach your limit pretty quickly, unless the phone lines are particularly busy (such as in the finale). 

REASON #2: We have a larger “window of opportunity” to vote.

The voting lines on Idol don’t open until the end of the show and are open for 2 hours after that; the voting lines on DWTS are open from the beginning of the show until 30 minutes after the show is over.  Not only do DWTS voters get an extra half-hour to vote by phone, but we’re not limited to waiting until we’ve seen all the performances before we cast our votes.  So what does that mean? Some smart “power voters” (like Heidi) will start voting for their favorites as soon as the show starts, when the phone lines aren’t so busy. Some viewers (like my mom) will wait until one performance catches her eye midway through the show and will give all her votes to them. And some voters will wait until the end of the show to cast their votes.  What does this mean? With a larger time window to vote, there’s also the potential for the voting to get “spread out” a bit more – meaning there’s less liklihood of getting a busy signal, even though there may be just as many votes being cast for a particular contestant. With Idol, everyone is scrambling to get their votes in at the same time – meaning busy signals galore, and a more accurate estimate of just how many people are voting for a particular contestant. With DWTS, there may be a bit of a scramble to get votes in after the show is over, but Dial Idol likely won’t pick up on votes that were made earlier in the show, when there wasn’t the same urgency to hurry up and get your votes in…and hence, fewer busy signals to measure. 

REASON #3: Dial Idol doesn’t take text message or online votes into account.

 Perhaps the biggest caveat of Dial Idol is that it only measures phone votes – and with more and more shows also opening up voting via text message and Internet (Idol included, as of this season), it’s going to become progressively less accurate.  There is absolutely no easy way to quantitatively measure text message or online votes – no busy signal to bounce back, no publicly-available statistics, etc. If you think about it, phone voting is possibly the LEAST convenient method of voting for a reality show anymore – if there’s a busy signal, you just have to wait and keep hitting redial; even though the call is toll-free, you still use up minutes if you call from a cell phone; and fewer and fewer homes have landlines anymore – leaving fewer avenues to dial in your votes.  I get the feeling that more and more viewers are resorting to voting online or via text – there’s no waiting, there’s a longer window of opportunity to vote (at least online), and you’re able “cheat” the system a bit by creating multiple accounts to vote online (I can’t vouch for Idol, but I think we’ve all seen what a boon online voting can be for some DWTS viewers!).  Why even waste time and money on slow phone voting when you can get the instant gratification of voting via text or Internet? And thus our Dial Idol “sample size” gets even smaller.

 REASON #4: Dial Idol gives itself a “safety net” of accuracy.

 Ever notice how sometimes the results at Dial Idol are different colors? You may have written it off as the web designer just trying to make the site more “visually pleasing”, but the colors do have some significance – it’s basically a way to show how confident they are in the results for each contestant.  And that’s where the sneaky yellow-colored results come in – officially, it’s a way to say that the results are “too close to call” between all of the contestants who’s results are yellow; unofficially, I think it’s a way for Dial Idol to save face in the event that they’re completely off-the-mark, and pad their accuracy percentage. :-) See the column that says “Dial Idol Range”? Those numbers from 1-whatever for each couple are where they’re predicted to be ranked in terms of votes.  And when those numbers are yellow, it means it’s too close to call, and the contestant could fall anywhere between those 2 numbers.  Let’s use this week’s DWTS results on Dial Idol as an example. Chelsea & Mark are in the lead with a Dial Idol score of 31.92.  But all of the couples’ scores are yellow, meaning it’s too close to call, and all of the couples could potentially be as low as 11th place.  What does that mean? That if there was an elimination this week, and Chelsea & Mark get sent home, it would still count as a “correct” prediction for Dial Idol, since they said it was too close to call and that Chelsea & Mark could be anywhere between 1-11th place. Inflated accuracy percentage much? Is your faith in Dial Idol wavering yet? :-) That sneaky yellow “too close to call” is what lulls a lot of people into a false sense of security – their favorite couple may be in the lead with their Dial Idol score, but it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re safe from elimination.  And even the green & red colors, which signify “likely safe” and “likely in danger”, respectively, are no guarantee – Dial Idol has been wrong about those before, too.  Why, you ask? Which brings me to my final point…

REASON #5: NOT EVERYONE USES DIAL IDOL TO GET THEIR VOTES IN!!!!

Remember what I said about sample size? The more people that use Dial Idol, the more accurate it becomes (in theory).  The problem is – we don’t know how many people are actually using Dial Idol to vote, and in order to get a decent representation of what kind of votes each of the contestants is getting, there has to be people using Dial Idol to vote for each of the contestants.  The same applies to any show that Dial Idol supports – how can it measure the busy signal for each contestant if there isn’t at least one person using it to vote for each contestant? Let’s say no one uses Dial Idol to vote for Chris & Cheryl.  Then there’s going to be no busy signals bouncing back, and to those who don’t know the particulars about how Dial Idol works, it’s going to appear as though they got the low score and are predicted to head home.  In reality, there simply isn’t any data to determine whether they’re going to stay, go, or how they stack up against other contestants.  Or, on the other hand, let’s say most of the people using Dial Idol are voting for Hines & Kym.  It’s going to result in an inflated score for them that may make it look like they’re safe, but without equally as diverse data for each of the other contestants, there’s no way to know for sure. 

The bottom line? Short of forcing everyone voting on the show to use Dial Idol to phone in their votes, giving us limitless votes, and making us wait until AFTER the show is over to vote, and finding a way to measure the impact of online voting & text message voting, Dial Idol is NEVER going to have the same success on DWTS that it has had on Idol up to this point.  I say “up to this point” because now Idol also has online voting, and I think that will impact the results even more.  So who knows, Dial Idol may become obsolete soon…yet another reason not to put too much stock in it ;-)

March 23, 2011 I Written By

Ultrasound sales specialist by day, semi-knowledgeable DWTS fan by night...with a smattering of hair & makeup enthusiast, occasional model, and crazy cat lady peppered in to make things REALLY interesting ;-) I might pee my pants in happiness if Donnie Wahlberg ever does DWTS - or if they ever use "Sunglasses at Night" as a paso doble. Check out some of my other work at pureamericasgottalent.com!

DWTS 12 Stat Class: Who has the Edge?

So… before the start of last season I attempted to place the “stars” via a long series of calculations in hopes to predict who would leave when during the course of the season.

Needless to say, although I was off in some cases I was also spot on in other cases.

In case you have forgotten what factors I’ve used to calculate the placement of the stars here’s a bit of a refresher: DWTS Season 11 Stat Class

Now it would be interesting to note how the last season affecting the standings of each pro… so below is what the pro ranks are AFTER Season 11 followed by what they were PRIOR to Season 11:
1. 1.) Derek Hough – 7 Seasons
2. 2.) Julianne Hough – 5 Seasons
3. 4.) Lacey Schwimmer – 4 Seasons
4. 3.) Cheryl Burke – 10 Seasons
5. 7.) Dmitry Chaplin – 2 Seasons
6. 10.) Mark Ballas – 7 Seasons
7. 13.) Maksim Chmerkovskiy – 9 Seasons
8. 5.) Kym Johnson – 8 Seasons
9. 11.) Tony Dovolani – 10 Seasons
10. 14.) Anna Trebunskaya – 6 Seasons
11. 8.) Karina Smirnoff – 8 Seasons
12. 9.) Louis van Amstel – 7 Seasons
13. 6.) Chelsie Hightower – 4 Seasons
14. 12.) Corky Ballas – 2 Season
15. 15.) Edyta Sliwinska – 10 Seasons
16. 16.) Alec Mazo – 5 Seasons
17. 17.) Ashly Costa (nee DelGrosso) – 4 Seasons
18. 18.) Jonathan Roberts – 7 Seasons

As one could see, even if a pro does not participate in a season their overall rank is still affected based on those that are participating.

And for sake of completeness here is how the various age groups rank after Season 11:
1. Teens (below 20 years)
2. 20s (20 thru 29)
3. 30s (30 thru 39)
4. 60s (60 thru 69)
5. 40s (40 thru 49)
6. 70s (70 thru 79)
7. 50s (60 thru 69)
8. 80s (above 79 years)

Now it is important to note that the ages represent the age that a celeb is at while they are participating in the show. So if someone is 29 when they were on the show and is in their early-30s now the age group they are representing is that of their 20s.

And finally we have occupations. I tried to use the primary occupation that a celeb is most known for since we do have a lot of crossover celebrities. This category probably contains the most variables when attempting to calculate ranks:
1. NFL athlete
2. Olympian (one that has been to the Olympics AND medaled)
3. Band Member (ie 98 Degrees, Spice Girls, NKOTB, etc)
4. Disney (anyone that got their start w/ Disney, Billy Ray Cyrus is NOT part of this group)
5. Entertainer (ie Wayne Newton, Marie and Donny Osmond)
6. Soap Opera Star
7. Singer (Master P, Billy Ray Cyrus, Toni Braxton, Lil Kim, Aaron Carter, Michael Bolton)
8. Actor
9. Athlete (ie Helio, Monica Seles, Ty Murray, Chuck Liddell, Louie)
10. Host (ie Kenny Mayne, Jerry Springer, Lezza Gibbons, Brooke Burke, Erin Andrews)
11. Actress
12. NBA athlete
13. Boxer (ie Evander Holyfield, Laila Ali, Floyd Mayweather)
14. Reality TV Star
15. Other (anyone that does not fit in any other category)
16. Model
17. Comedian

Now that we know which celebs are part of Season 12, it is time to calculate and attempt to predict how they would place in the upcoming season.

For issues of time and ease of understanding I am only going notate which group each celeb fits per category and their rank, as well as their overall rank.

SUGAR RAY LEONARD
Age: 50s (Rank: 11)
Occupation: Boxer (Rank: 9)
Pro Partner: Anna Trebunskaya (Rank: 8 )
OVERALL RANK: 11
I really don’t know what to say about this. I mean Anna has done well recently, but for every high placement she has a low placement. Other than Laila Ali, Boxers typically do not rank high in their season despite the natural fast feet. But the first to go? I could see others more likely to fit that bill…

WENDY WILLIAMS
Age: 40s (Rank: 8 )
Occupation: Host (Rank: 6)
Pro Partner: Tony Dovolani (Rank: 7)
OVERALL RANK: 10
Female hosts tend to do better than male hosts in the overall standings, but that is also dependent on what they have come in with and if memory serves most of those female hosts has had some prior dance experience, be it ballet, contemporary, etc. Does Wendy have any of that? Not to my knowledge but things could change. Still, personally, I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see her as one of the first to go.

RALPH MACCHIO
Age: 40s (Rank: 8 )
Occupation: Actor (Rank: 4)
Pro Partner: Karina Smirnoff (Rank: 9)
OVERALL RANK: 9
Actors tend to do better than actresses, granted that’s mainly in part of the viewing demographic. However with other better eye candy on the horizon, does he really stand a chance?

KENDRA WILKINSON
Age: 20s (Rank: 1)
Occupation: Reality TV Star (Rank: 10)
Pro Partner: Louis van Amstel (Rank: 10)
OVERALL RANK: 8
Another bunny decides that she wanted to come out and play. Thank goodness her first dance isn’t the quickstep, else I may have to walk away do to some distraction or another. I mean, having a bounce is one thing, but bouncing all over the place is quite another. Still the ChaCHa isn’t exactly an improvement in the bounce department, unless Louis knows how to keep the puppies tame. Being young has its advantages, but that only goes so far.

KRISTIE ALLEY
Age: 60s (Rank: 7)
Occupation: Actress (Rank: 8 )
Pro Partner: Maksim Chmerkovskiy (Rank: 5)
OVERALL RANK: 7
Maksim has had his taste in the top three for a few seasons now, but Kristie is coming up in her age. To me she’s the most “known” but that is only because I loved the “Look Whose Talking” movie series with John Travolta. It will be interesting to see what she comes up with.

PETRA NEMCOVA
Age: 30s (Rank: 4)
Occupation: Model (Rank: 11)
Pro Partner: Dmitry Chaplin (Rank: 3)
OVERALL RANK: 6
Ah yes, the prettiest couple. I am a Dmitry ‘groupie’, so any chance that he could stay on the show longer is a happy day for me. But models tend to do poorly when it comes to placement beating out comedians! Ah well, I’m crossing my fingers.

ROMEO
Age: 20s (Rank: 1)
Occupation: Singer (Rank: 3)
Pro Partner: Chelsie Hightower (Rank: 11)
OVERALL RANK: 5
YES!!! You have no idea how excited I was to hear that they asked him to come on this season. He has GOT to be an improvement over his dad. His pro partner is arguably an improvement (for those that have forgotten, when he was originally asked to join, his partner was slated Ashly DelGrosso now Costa but he was replaced by his dad due to injury). So I am very interested to see how this would pan out.

CHRIS JERICHO
Age: 40s (Rank: 8 )
Occupation: Athlete (Rank: 5)
Pro Partner: Cheryl Burke (Rank: 2)
OVERALL RANK: 4
As yes, Cheryl gets another athlete, there isn’t much to be said, because she knows how to get an athlete to work. So what’s the point?

MIKE CATHERWOOD
Age: 30s (Rank: 4)
Occupation: Host (Rank: 6)
Pro Partner: Lacey Schwimmer (Rank: 1)
OVERALL RANK: 3
I don’t know him. Do you? I can’t comment on someone that I have no idea about, I’m sorry.

HINES WARD
Age: 30s (Rank: 4)
Occupation: NFL athlete (Rank: 1)
Pro Partner: Kym Johnson (Rank: 6)
OVERALL RANK: 2
NFL players have a tendency to finish in the top half of the season celebs, with a good number of them finishing near the top three. Hines has his work cut out with him if he is expected to keep the NFL legacy alive. At least he isn’t a quarterback. *evil cackle*

CHELSEA KANE
Age: 20s (Rank: 1)
Occupation: Disney (Rank: 2)
Pro Partner: Mark Ballas (Rank: 4)
OVERALL RANK: 1
Don’t ask me how this happened. But it has happened again. In last year’s pre-season ranking I had Bristol Palin and Kyle Massey in the top three and look what happened! I am just saying that at this point, anything can happen.

And there you have it, the final odds as calculated by my normalized calculations derived from the last eleven seasons. Normally I wouldn’t agree with a good number of these ranks, but as it stands, numbers don’t lie and last year just reminded me of that. So let’s just sit back, relax, and see what’s going to happen this season.

Enjoy!

March 20, 2011 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS 11 Stat Class: Week 4 (Acoustic Week)

Another week has come and gone… which mean a new week of attempting to predict scores…

Tonight’s theme… Acoustics! (I wonder where they got this idea from?) From what we have been able to gather from the internets the two dances that will be performed tonight are the two sexiest and most sensual dances in the repetoire: the Rumba and the Argentine Tango…

Again many thanks to Heidi for finding out who is dancing what this week:

RUMBA
Brandy and Maks
- Maksim & Tia Carrere (Season 2/Week 2): 22/30
- Maksim & Willa Ford (Season 3/Week 5): 27/30
- Maksim & Laila Ali (Season 4/Week 5): 28/30
- Maksim & Melanie Brown (Season 5/Week 6): 30/30
- Maksim & Erin Andrews (Season 10/Week 8): 25/30
Prediction: 25/30

Kurt and Anna
- Anna & Jerry Rice (Season 2/Week 7): 21/30
- Anna & Evan Lysacek (Season 10/Week 5): 27/30
Let’s add in other “footballers”
- Cheryl & Emmitt Smith (Season 3/Week 8): 29/30
- Edyta & Jason Taylor (Season 6/Week 5): 27/30
- Kym & Warren Sapp (Season 7/Week 6): 25/30
- Cheryl & Chad Ochocinco (Season 10/Week 4): 22/30
Prediction: 22/30

Florence and Corky
Since Corky has yet to perform the Rumba w/ a celeb… how did other “mature” female celebs?
- Louis & Priscilla Presley (Season 6/Week 5): 21/30
- Tony & Susan Lucci (Season 7/Week 2): 21/30
- Tony & Jane Seymour (Season 5/Week 5): 26/30
Prediction: 21/30

Bristol and Mark
- Mark & Sabrina Bryan (Season 5/Week 5): 28/30
- Mark & Kristi Yamaguchi (Season 6/Week 5): 29/30
- Mark & Kim Kardashian (Season 7/Week 2): 17/30
- Mark & Shawn Johnson (Season 8/Week 6): 26/30
Prediction: 20/30

Kyle and Lacey
- Lacey & Lance Bass (Season 7/Week 7): 25/30
- Lacey & Steve-O (Season 8/Week 60: 16/30
- Lacey & Mark Dacascos (Season 9/Week 3): 18/30
Just for the hell of it… let’s add other Disney related celebs
- Louis & Monique Coleman (Season 3/Week 5): 27/30
- Mark & Sabrina Bryan (Season 5/Week 5): 28/30
- Julianne & Cody Linley (Season 7/Week 2): 21/30
Prediction: 19/30

ARGENTINE TANGO
Jennifer and Derek
- Derek & Lil Kim (Season 8/Week 4): 27/30
- Derek & Nicole Scherzinger (Season 10/Week 9): 30/30
And then adding in other actresses closer to her age group:
- Damian & Pamela Anderson (Season 10/Week 6): 22/30
Prediction: 26/30

Audrina and Tony
- Tony & Melissa Rycroft (Season 8/Week 7): 29/30
What about other reality stars?
- Louis & Kelly Osbourne (Season 9/Week 10): 26/30
Prediction: 24/30

Sitch and Karina
- Karina & Steve Wozniak (Season 8/Week 4): 12/30
- Karina & Aaron Carter (Season 9/Week 5): 24/30
LOL… again other reality stars…
- Tony & Melissa Rycroft (Season 8/Week 7): 29/30
- Louis & Kelly Osbourne (Season 9/Week 10): 26/30
Prediction: 20/30

Rick and Cheryl
- Cheryl & Gilles Marini (Season 8/Week 4): 30/30
- Cheryl & Chad Ochocinco (Season 10/Week 6): 24/30
What about adding in athletes?
- Chelsie & Ty Murray (Season 8/Week 9): 25/30
- Chelsie & Louie Vito (Season 9/Week 5): 22/30
Prediction: 24/30

October 11, 2010 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS 11 Stat Class: Week 3 (Storytelling Night)

Tonight is the first “themed” night of the show… each dance is required to tell a ‘story’…

How do you think they would do? Thanks to Heidi for provided who is dancing what for this week.

SAMBA
Jennifer & Derek
- Derek & Jennie Garth (Season 5/Week 5): 25/30
- Derek & Shannon Elizabeth (Season 6/Week 5): 23/30
- Derek & Brooke Burke (Season 7/Week 4): 26/30
- Derek & Lil Kim (Season 8/Week 3): 25/30
- Derek & Joanna Krupe (Season 9/Week 3): 23/30
- Derek & Nicole Scherzinger (Season 10/Week 6): 26/30
Prediction: 24/30

Rick & Cheryl
- Cheryl & Drew Lachey (Season 2/Week 5): 27/30
- Cheryl & Emmitt Smith (Season 3/Week 5): 27/30
- Cheryl & Ian Ziering (Season 4/Week 5): 24/30
- Cheryl & Cristian de la Fuente (Season 6/Week 7): 21/30
- Cheryl & Maurice Greene (Season 7/Week 4): 20/30
- Cheryl & Gilles Marini (Season 8/Week 3): 27/30
- Cheryl & Tom DeLay (Season 9/Week 3): 15/30
- Cheryl & Chad Ochocinco (Season 10/Week 9): 25/30
Prediction: 23/30

Margaret & Louis
- Louis & Lisa Rinna (Season 2/Week 5): 25/30
- Louis & Monique Coleman (Season 3/Week 6): 23/30
- Louis & Kelly Osbourne (Season 9/Week 3): 20/30
Prediction: 20/30

WALTZ
Kyle & Lacey
- Lacey & Steve-O (Season 8/Week 1): 17/30
Since there isn’t enough data… let’s look at other Disney stars…
- Louis & Monique Coleman (Season 3/Week 4): 24/30
Hmm… still not enough info…. other teens?
- Mark & Shawn Johnson (Season 8/Week 1): 23/30
Prediction: 21/30

Florence & Corky
Since this is Corky’s first time w/ the Waltz… how did other actresses do?
- Maksim & Tia Carrere (Season 2/Week 1): 20/30
- Nick & Tatum O’Neal (Season 2/Week 1): 23/30
- Mark & Melissa (Season 9/Week 6): 20/30
- Damian & Pamela Anderson (Season 10/Week 7): 24/30
Prediction: 21/30

Audrina & Tony
- Tony & Stacy Keibler (Season 2/Week 1): 22/30
- Tony & Melissa Rycroft (Season 8/Week 1): 23/30
Hmm… what about other reality stars?
- Louis & Trista Sutter (Season 1/Week 1): 14/30
- Lacey & Steve-O (Season 8/Week 1): 17/30
Prediction: 21/30

FOXTROT
Kurt & Anna
- Anna & Jerry Rice (Season 2/Week 4): 24/30
- Anna & Steve Guttenberg (Season 6/Week 1): 18/30
- Anna & Chuck Liddell (Season 9/Week 1): 16/30
- Anna & Evan Lysacek (Season 10/Week 9): 29/30
Prediction: 21/30

Mike & Karina
- Karina & Mario Lopez (Season 3/Week 7): 29/30
- Karina & Billy Ray Cyrus (Season 4/Week 8): 18/30
- Karina & Mario (Season 6/Week 7): 24/30
- Karina & Rocco DiSpirito (Season 7/Week 1): 14/30
- Karina & Aaron Carter (Season 9/Week 8): 23/30
Prediction: 21/30

Bristol & Mark
- Mark & Sabrina Bryan (Season 5/Week 6): 25/30
- Mark & Kristi Yamaguchi (Season 6/Week 1): 27/30
- Mark & Kim Kardashian (Season 7/Week 1): 19/30
- Mark & Shawn Johnson (Season 8/Week 3): 27/30
Prediction: 21/30

So how off do you think I’m going to be this week? Stay tuned and find out tonight! :D

October 4, 2010 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS 11 Stat Class – Week 2

One week has come and gone… and with it a celeb. The Hoff, it seems, couldn’t cut the rug. And I was so hoping that he would stick around a bit longer. Ah well.

From the judges’ comments of last Monday’s show, we know that the Jive or the Quickstep would be performed this week. But who is dancing what? Well considering it is only the second week, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that whoever did the Viennese Waltz last week will perform the Jive this week, and those that performed the ChaCha last week will have the Quickstep this week…

QUICKSTEP
Florence Henderson & Corky Ballas
Since Corky has yet to show his prowess with the Quickstep, we are going to attempt to use data from more “mature” actresses.
- Tony & Jane Seymour (Season 5/Week 7): 24/30
- Fabian & Marlee Matlin (Season 6/Week 2): 24/30
- Damian & Pamela Anderson (Season 10/Week 5): 21/30
Predicted Score: 20/30

Kyle Massey & Lacey Schwimmer
- Lacey & Lance Bass (Season 7/Week 1): 21/30
- Lacey & Mark Decascos (Season 9/Week 2): 21/30
With so little information… how did the other Disney related folks do?
- Louis & Monique Coleman (Season 3/Week 7): 27/30
- Mark & Sabrina Bryan (Season 5/Week 2): 23/30
- Julianne & Cody Linley (Season 7/Week 1): 23/30
Predicted Score: 22/30

Bristol Palin & Mark Ballas
- Mark & Sabrina Bryan (Season 5/Week 2): 23/30
- Mark & Kristi Yamaguchi (Season 6/Week 8): 29/30
- Mark & Shawn Johnson (Season 8/Week 9): 27/30
Again, with so little info, let’s so how some of the “celebs” in the “others” group have fared…
- Kym & Penn Jilette (Season 6/Week 2): 17/30
- Karina & Steve Wozniak (Season 8/Week 2): 17/30
Predicted Score: 21/30

Audrina Patridge & Tony Dovolani
- Tony & Stacy Keibler (Season 2/Week 7): 27/30
- Tony & Jane Seymour (Season 5/Week 7): 24/30
- Tony & Marissa Jaret Winokur (Season 6/Week 2): 21/30
- Tony & Susan Lucci (Season 7/Week 1): 22/30
- Tony & Melissa Rycroft (Season 8/Week 10): 28/30
- Tony & Kathy Ireland (Season 9/Week 2): 18/30
Predicted score: 23/30

Mike Sorrentino & Karina Smirnoff
- Karina & Mario Lopez (Season 3/Week 2): 21/30
- Karina & Billy Ray Cyrus (Season 4/Week 2): 21/30
- Karina & Floyd Mayweather Jr (Season 5/Week 2): 18/30
- Karina & Mario (Season 6/Week 2): 26/30
- Karina & Steve Wozniak (Season 8/Week 2): 17/30
- Karina & Aaron Carter (Season 9/Week 2): 27/30
Predicted score: 22/30

JIVE
Michael Bolton & Chelsie Hightower
- Chelsie & Ty Murray (Season 8/Week 6): 18/30
- Chelsie & Louie Vito (Season 9/Week 2): 19/30
- Chelsie & Jake Pavelka (Season 10/Week 2): 20/30
To help with predicting this score… let’s look at more “mature” singers/entertainers…
- Kym & Donny Osmond (Season 9/Week 2): 25/30
Predicted score: 19/30

Margaret Cho & Louis van Amstel
- Louis & Lisa Rinna (Season 2/Week 3): 15/30
- Louis & Monique Coleman (Season 3/Week 3): 27/30
- Louis & Kelly Osbourne (Season 9/Week 8): 26/30
- Louis & Niecy Nash (Season 10/Week 5): 18/30
Predicted score: 20/30

Rick Fox & Cheryl Burke
- Cheryl & Drew lachey (Season 2/Week 3): 27/30
- Cheryl & Emmitt Smith (Season 3/Week 6): 25/30
- Cheryl & Ian Ziering (Season 4/Week 3): 24/30
- Cheryl & Cristian de la Fuente (Season 6/Week 3): 25/30
- Cheryl & Maurice Greene (Season 7/Week 3): 24/30
- Cheryl & Gilles Marini (Season 8/Week 6): 26/30
- Cheryl & Chad Ochocinco (Season 10/Week 8): 24/30
Predicted score: 24/30

Jennifer Grey & Derek Hough
- Derek & Jennie Garth (Season 5/Week 8): 24/30
- Derek & Shannon Elizabeth (Season 6/Week 3): 24/30
- Derek & Brooke Burke (Season 7/Week 9): 21/30
- Derek & Lil Kim (Season 8/Week 6): 28/30
- Derek & Joanna Krupa (Season 9/Week 2): 20/30
- Derek & Nicole Scherzinger (Season 10/Week 2): 28/30
Predicted score: 24/30

Brandy & Maksim Chmerkovskiy
- Maksim & Willa Ford (Season 3/Week 3): 22/30
- Maksim & Laila Ali (Season 4/Week 8): 26/30
- Maksim & Mel B (Season 5/Week 3): 27/30
- Maksim & Erin Andrews (Season 10/Week 5): 22/30
Predicted score: 23/30

Kurt Warner & Anna Trebunskaya
- Anna & Jerry Rice (Season 2/Week 3): 19/30
- Anna & Evan Lysacek (Season 10/Week 2): 24/30
Let’s add in the other NFLers… =D
- Cheryl & Emmitt Smith (Season 3/Week 6): 25/30
- Edyta & Jason Taylor (Season 6/Week 3): 23/30
- Kym & Warren Sapp (Season 7/Week 8): 26/30
- Edyta & Lawrence Taylor (Season 8/Week 6): 22/30
- Cheryl & Chad Ochocinco (Season 10/Week 8): 24/30
Predicted score: 22/30

So how did I do? Stay tuned for the show tonight and find out!

September 27, 2010 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS 11 Stat Class: Week 1

Here it is folks! The first performance of the season. If rumors are correct then the first two dances that the celebs are going to try to tackle are: Viennese Waltz and ChaCha. Many thanks to Heidi for posting who is dancing what and their songs… even if she cheated a little ;-)

For those that either need a refresher or new to this, this is how I predict scores. I look at the pro and post up all scores related to that pro in that dance style. Sometimes, there simply isn’t enough information, so I would also compare scores with those of others in similar occupations, age groups, etc… Then with a little bit of averaging things up and putting my own feelings into the matter… I attempt to predict scores for each of the couples… No easy task. ;-)

Granted, who knows what’s going to happen, and this is really all just for fun :D Keeping all that in mind, let’s try to predict the scores…

VIENNESE WALTZ:
Michael Bolton & Chelsie Hightower
- Chelsie & Ty Murray (Season 8/Week 10): 25/30
- Chelsie & Jake Pavelka (Season 10/Week 1): 20/30
To me this is simply not enough information… so I’m going to try to compare with other male singers.
- Karina & Mario (Season 6/Week 8): 27/30
- Julianne & Chuck Wicks (Season 8/Week 5): 23/30
Predicted score: 20/30

Margaret Cho & Louis van Amstel
- Louis & Priscilla Presley (Season 6/Week 4): 22/30
- Louis & Kelly Osbourne (Season 9/Week 1): 23/30
- Louis & Niecy Nash (Season 10/Week 8): 23/30
Predicted score: 24/30

Rick Fox & Cheryl Burke
- Cheryl & Cristian de la Fuente (Season 6/Week 7): 25/30
- Cheryl & Maurice Greene (Season 7/Week 6): 21/30
- Cheryl & Gilles Marini (Season 8/Week 7): 27/30
- Cheryl & Chad Ochocinco (Season 10/Week 7): 25/30
Predicted score: 23/30

Jennifer Grey & Derek Hough
- Derek & Jennie Garth (Season 5/Week 7): 25/30
- Derek & Shannon Elizabeth (Season 6/Week 4): 28/30
- Derek & Brooke Burke (Season 7/Week 3): 28/30
- Derek & Lil Kim (Season 8/Week 5): 26/30
- Derek & Joanna Krupa (Season 9/Week 9): 27/30
- Derek & Nicole Scherzinger (Season 10/Week 1): 25/30
Predicted score: 26/30

Brandy & Maksim Chmerkovskiy
- Maksim & Mel B (Season 5/Week 4): 26/30
- Maksim & Erin Andrews (Season 10/Week 9): 27/30
To me this is simply not enough information… so I’m going to try to compare with other female singers.
- Alec & Toni Braxton (Season 7/Week 3): 22/30
- Derek & Lil Kim (Season 8/Week 5): 26/30
- Dmitry & Mya (Season 9/Week 1): 21/30
Predicted score: 23/30

Kurt Warner & Anna Trebunskaya
- Anna & Evan Lysacek (Season 10/Week 1): 23/30
To me this is simply not enough information… so I’m going to try to compare with other football players.
- Edyta & Jason Taylor (Season 6/Week 4): 29/30
- Kym & Warren Sapp (Season 7/Week 3): 25/30
- Cheryl & Chad Ochocinco (Season 10/Week 7): 25/30
Predicted Score: 22/30

CHACHA
David Hasselhoff & Kym Johnson
- Kym & Jerry Springer (Season 3/Week 1): 16/30
- Kym & Joey Fatone (Season 4/Week 1): 24/30
- Kym & Penn Jillette (Season 6/Week 1): 16/30
- Kym & Warren Sapp (Season 7/Week 1): 21/30
- Kym & Donny Osmond (Season 9/Week 10): 27/30
Predicted score: 20/30

Florence Henderson & Corky Ballas
- Corky & Cloris Leachman (Season 7/Week 6): 15/30
To me this is simply not enough information… so I’m going to try to compare with other elder (40s +) female actresses.
- Fabian & Marlee Matlin (Season 6/Week 1): 22/30
- Damian & Pamela Anderson (Season 10/Week 1): 21/30
- Tony & Jane Seymour (Season 5/Week 7): 26/30
Predicted Score: 19/30

Kyle Massey & Lacey Schwimmer
- Lacey & Lance Bass (Season 7/Week 1): 22/30
- Lacey & Mark Dacascos (Season 9/Week 1): 21/30
To me this is simply not enough information… so I’m going to try to compare with other Disney related folks.
- Louis & Monique Coleman (Season 3/Week 8): 29/30
- Mark & Sabrina Bryan (Season 5/Week 1): 26/30
- Julianne & Cody Linley (Season 7/Week 1): 18/30
Predicted Score: 18/30

Bristol Palin & Mark Ballas
- Mark & Sabrina Bryan (Season 5/Week 1): 26/30
- Mark & Kristi Yamaguchi (Season 6/Week 7): 28/30
- Mark & Shawn Johnson (Season 8/Week 7): 28/30
To me this is simply not enough information… so I’m going to try to compare with other celebs whose occupation is not of the norm arenas of entertainment.
- Kym & Penn Jilette (Season 6/Week 1): 16/30
- Karina & Steve Wozniak (Season 8/Week 1): 13/30
- Cheryl & Tom DeLay (Season 9/Week 1): 16/30
- Ashly & Buzz Aldrin (Season 10/Week 1): 14/30
Predicted Score: 16/30

Audrina Patridge & Tony Dovolani
- Tony & Stacy Kiebler (Season 2/Week 7): 28/30
- Tony & Jane Seymour (Season 2/Week 5): 26/30
- Tony & Marissa Jaret Winokur (Season 6/Week 1): 18/30
- Tony & Susan Lucci (Season 7/Week 1): 15/30
- Tony & Melissa Rycroft (Season 8/Week 10): 27/30
Predicted score: 18/30

Mike Sorrentino & Karina Smirnoff
- Karina & Mario Lopez (Season 3/Week 1): 26/30
- Karina & Billy Ray Cyrus (Season 4/Week 1): 13/30
- Karina & Floyd Mayweather Jr (Season 5/Week 1): 15/30
- Karina & Mario (Season 6/Week 1): 24/30
- Karina & Steve Wozniak (Season 8/Week 1): 13/30
- Karina & Aaron Carter (Season 9/Week 1): 22/30
Predicted score: 19/30

And there you have it… how close… or far… am I going to get? Stay tuned to find out! See you at the other side. :D

September 20, 2010 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS 11 Stat Class: Who has the Edge? Part 2

Hello! Here it is… my calculated rankings for the celebs this season. Mind you, unlike others on this site, these do not reflect my opinions, but rather a calculation that I am attempting to use to predict the placement of the celebs based on past data. Whether this is true or not remains to be seen, but it is fun to speculate nonetheless.

For a quick refresher for other bloggers’ opinions of rankings please see Heidi and Courtney’s (Part I and Part II) posts as well as John’s posts about the odds/competitiveness factor and the number of twitter followers for each celeb.

If you recall from DWTS 11 Stat Class: Who has the Edge? Part 1, I gave a breakdown of the professional dancers as they were place by attempting to normalize the average. Granted with a built in bias there is only so much that can be done.

Before I go through the individual celebs here is an idea of how each age group placed on average through all ten seasons of the show thus far from highest to lowest:
1.) Teens (ages 10 thru 19) – 2 celebs
2.) 20s (ages 20 thru 29) – 17 celebs
3.) 30s (ages 30 thru 39) – 48 celebs
4.) 60s (ages 60 thru 69) – 7 celebs
5.) 40s (ages 40 thru 49) – 27 celebs
6.) 50s (ages 50 thru 59) – 12 celebs
7.) 80s on up (ages 80 on up) – 2 celebs
Note: Florence Henderson is the first person to be on the show while in their 70s, thus there is no normalized average for that age group as of yet.

Now that we know which celebs will be participating this season and who their professional partner will be, it’s time to calculate and attempt to predict how the celebs would place in the upcoming season. First I will give an analysis and a little of my opinions belief of each celeb and how each of the three factors (Age, Primary Occupation and Professional Partner) either help or hinder them as individuals.

Brandy
Age: 31
Typically those in their 30s do reasonably well on the show. Trailing those in their teens, and 20s (is that really any surprise?).
Primary Occupation: Singer
Singers in general stay in the middle of the pack placing just out of the semi-finals but better than most of the worst dancers. Mya being the only one to break out of that middle-of-the-pack while Macy Gray exited earlier in her season. Singers also incurred the most pre-season injuries (Lil Romeo and Jewel)
Professional Partner: Maksim Chmerkovskiy
Prior to his Season 6 vacation, Maksim placed fairly well with his celeb, typically hitting the midway point (Willa Ford being an exception). However, aside from Erin, Maksim hasn’t done quite as well with his partners, then again they were both actresses. Brandy could find herself closer to the top half of the middle-of-the-pack group. She might even find herself in the semi-finals… but I’m not too sure about beyond that.

Jennifer Grey
Age: 50
Oddly enough those in their 50s, on average, has done worse than those in their 60s. Sympathy vote perhaps? Granted Jennifer recently turned 50 so she might still have a little bit of that spunk from those in their 40s, but even those in their 40s didn’t do as well as those as their 60s.
Primary Occupation: Actress
Actresses don’t really do well on DWTS rarely breaking the midway point. The ones that do break the midway point either were very popular or have some sort of dance experience or had picked up choreo before. Jennifer picked up choreography for the infamous last dance on Dirty Dancing, but that was over 20 years ago… they say that dancing is like riding a bike though.
Professional Partner: Derek Hough
Granted all this could be balanced out by the mere fact that her partner is Derek Hough. Right now he has the highest placement average of all the pros. Just adding the Derek factor into the equation… she her chances of getting into the semi-finals or more just went up.

Margaret Cho
Age: 41
Those in their 40s hit the midpoint of the competition trailing those in their 60s. Going beyond that depends on other factors as well.
Primary Occupation: Comedian
To me, I’ve known her more as a comedian than as an actress. So I’m placing her in the comedians group. Comedians in general have the worst finishing trends on DWTS, placing dead last on average.
Professional Partner: Louis van Amstel
However, Margaret could buck the trend like Niecy kind of did. After all they both have Louis van Amstel as their partner. Despite doing decently with other celebs in the past, Louis has stayed largely in the middle of the pack. So the question would be, would the Louis factor help Margaret like it helped Niecy? It’s up the viewer, and the GLBT community I think :D

Audrina Patridge
Age: 25
Celebs in their 20s do rather well in the competition just behind those in their teens.
Primary Occupation: Reality TV Star
On the other side of this coin, Reality Stars in general hit the lower half on average. Those Reality Stars in their 20s have actually hit the midway point in competition… so… Audrina could be a surprise and goes up on the rankings.
Professional Partner: Tony Dovolani
And then there’s her partner. Tony’s been kind of up and down throughout his tenure on the show. With a ringer-type he does well (who doesn’t?) but with non-ringers, not so much. The other fact is that he has worked with two Reality Stars from opposite sides of the spectrum. So this partnership is a bit of a tossup.

Florence Henderson
Age: 76
Believe it or not this is the first time that DWTS has someone in their 70s. So there isn’t much material (ok not any) to work off of. So let’s look at those in their 60s and 80s. Those in their 60s tend to do a lot better than those in their 80s (who tend to finish towards the back of the pack).
Primary Occupation: Actress
And based off of some of the comments I made about actresses for Jennifer Grey, this is one that I don’t believe would get terribly far in the competition. But if everyone loves Mrs Brady, who knows? Maybe that star power would get her to the midway point.
Professional Partner: Corky Ballas
Corky has only been on the show once before and he placed seventh in a cast of thirteen partners, so there is no telling how he would do this time around. If the averages of the other two factors are any indication… he might have his work cut out for him.

Bristol Palin
Age: 19
Uh, this “known” person hits the prime age group. Those in their teens do rather well on average, and is it really any surprise as to why? They are young and malleable… theoretically ;-)
Primary Occupation: Other
On the other hand… The “others” are known persons that don’t fit the stereotypical celebs/stars type. And those in this “others” group almost hit dead last on the ranks, just ahead of the comedians.
Professional Partner: Mark Ballas
Mark Ballas tends to falter the most with non-ringer types… the closest similarity being Kim Kardashian. But Bristol is young, she could theoretically win audience members over… Who knows? But the numbers tell me otherwise.

Michael Bolton
Age: 56
Please see Jennifer Grey
Primary Occupation: Singer
Please see Brandy. Though Michael Bolton is well known for a lot longer than Brandy has, plus his music has a wider reaching net. Most of his demographic (I’m assuming) intersects the demographic of the show so he may have that to his advantage.
Professional Partner: Chelsie Hightower
Now let’s add little Chelsie into the mix and now you have someone that could hit the midway point perhaps, and has a semi-decent chance of getting past that midway point…

Mike Sorrentino
Age: 27
Please see Audrina Patridge
Primary Occupation: Reality TV Star
Please see Audrina Patridge
Professional Partner: Karina Smirnoff
Basically the same as Audrina, only male. One main point though is that male reality stars fare worse on average than female reality stars. Karina, by contrast, has hit middle of the road pack status with her celebs in recent seasons. So unless he’s drop dead gorgeous he may hit the midway point. Personally between Mike and Karina it may be more the Battle of the Abs rather than Dancing with the Stars.

David Hasselhoff
Age: 58
Please see Jennifer Grey… Another celeb in their 50s? That makes it what? Three? Gee whiz people. It’s like they are desperately trying to create another John O’Hurley. But celebs in their 60s do better than those in their 50s. Well David is pretty close to 60, maybe he’d find himself just past the midway mark…
Primary Occupation: Actor
Anyway actors tend to do better than actresses (yes I ended up separating the two). There is just something about their charm and charisma that makes the older female demographic (I’m assuming here) just want to pick up the phone for them.
Professional Partner: Kym Johnson
And of course there is that beautiful blonde Aussie bombshell that has probably worked the most with male celebs in their 50s on up. She has had a decent track record and knows how to turn on the entertainment charm for the male celebs. This might be another Donny Osmond in the works… but David is no Osmond, David’s an actor that branched out while Donny was an entertainer ever since he could dance and sing. So David stands a good chance of making it past the halfway point… I don’t know about the finals though.

Kurt Warner
Age: 39
Please see Brandy. Although he’s closer to his 40s so you might also want to look at Margaret Cho for the age range commentary.
Primary Occupation: NFL
He’s not as known as some of the other ex-NFL players that has come through the doors. But after looking him up on Wikipedia it does seem like he has a following of sorts. Football players tend to do really well in the standings (ok, on average they hit the number one spot), and the younger they are the higher up the ladder they tend to get. So I’m expecting him to go past the midway point and quite possibly compete at least in the semis and if I really want to go out there he could go to the top two. But quarterbacks do the least amount of running which could work against him.
Professional Partner: Anna Trebunskaya
In the few seasons that she has been on she has placed second with an Olympian and an NFL player. This bodes well for Kurt… but being in the position of the “non-athlete” of the NFL doesn’t really help matters any, but time will tell.

Kyle Massey
Age: 19
Please see Bristol Palin.
Primary Occupation: Disney
He’s a Disney Channel star which automatically brings him votes. Add to that his age and possible fan base I could see him knocking on the semi-finals door… as for walking through? That’s a whole other story.
Professional Partner: Lacey Schwimmer
Lacey, Lacey, Lacey… she’s only been on the show for three seasons and she’s done all right, however Kyle isn’t the same strong Disney powerhouse that Sabrina Bryan was or even Monique Coleman. The series that most people would know (That’s So Raven) was so three years ago, and whatever he has going now isn’t as known either. But Disney related celebs have fared rather well… and we can’t discount the Disney power.

Rick Fox
Age: 41
Please see Margaret Cho
Primary Occupation: NBA
But there has only been one other NBA player and that was Clyde Drexler from waaaaay back when. So there isn’t much to go on (maybe I should do a breakdown by heights). If we expand from NBA players to athletes in general they typically do hit the midway point in the competition, after that it’s entirely up to them. But since Clyde never made it to the halfway point in his season could Rick do better? Who knows
Professional Partner: Cheryl Burke
With Cheryl Burke as his partner his chances just got better. Cheryl has had practice working with athletes from all walks of life, and has been in the top half of the casts in almost every season she has been on (Wayne Newton being a notable exception). Perhaps Rick would be able to get his wish and surpass Kurt Warner on the show?

Now that we know my thoughts on the factors and how they could affect the celebs, lets look at how the factors add up… here is my calculated ranking by elimination sequence:
Week 1.) Margaret Cho
No surprise here based on what we know, but I’m hoping she’ll do as well as Niecy did and go further.
Week 2.) Florence Henderson
A little surprised, but considering her age and her profession, the only thing that could help her go further is her fan base… she’s Mrs Brady afterall.
Week 3.) Rick Fox
With so little information about NBA players, this is the best that could be done, which doesn’t bode well for Cheryl Burke… could they still buck the trend? The jury’s out on that one.
Week 4.) Audrina Patridge
Well considering that both Audrina and Mike have similar circumstances coming into the competition, most everything relies on who they ended up getting as their partner. Since Audrina’s partner is Tony her chances of lasting in the competition is a lot lower than that of Mike.
Week 5.) Michael Bolton
Age is working against him, as well as being simply a singer versus an entertainer. This is going to depend largely on the voting audience unless he has some sweet moves that he has kept largely hidden from the audience.
Week 6.) David Hasselhoff
Same as Michael Bolton, with age working against him and technically being an actor rather than entertainer I’m not expecting David to last that much longer than Michael Bolton or vice versa.
Week 7.) Jennifer Grey
If Jennifer makes it past the midway point it would be primarily due to the sheer power of Derek Hough. Which is a good thing too, because he could bring out the best from her without (hopefully) resorting to iconic dances.
Week 8.) Mike Sorrentino
With Karina as his partner, Mike could do rather well, granted good eye candy is always a good thing as long as he could dance.
Week 9.) Brandy
As mentioned by others already, if Brandy gets far along in the competition it would be due to her age and sex appeal… but if she can’t dance then everything else is a moot point.
Week 10.) Bristol Palin
Don’t kill me!!!! Youth does it everytime and since we have only had two teens on the show and one won their season while the other got fourth place in their season then it stands to reason that teens could do well this time around.
Runner Up.) Kurt Warner
Really… this is no surprise considering history… and the power of Anna T.
Winner.) Kyle Massey
Again don’t kill me… he’s young and there have only been two teens on the show prior to this, plus he’s Disney… all Disney people have done well in their respective seasons. The only problem with this is that Kyle’s “big show” ended three years ago while other Disney related people had a current project that kept them current. So this to me can’t work… even though the numbers tell me otherwise.

September 16, 2010 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS 11 Stat Class: Who has the Edge? Part 1

Yay! My turn. :D

Heidi and Courtney (Part I and Part II) turned in their feelings of how the power ranking would work for the season. While John wrote about odds/competitiveness factor as well as number of twitter followers for each celeb.

If you were following last season, I tried to predict scores for the stars before they actually started dancing. Well here I am again, using a more “advanced” statistical analysis to try to predict where each celeb will ultimately end up.

These calculations are based on three factors:
- Age Group: Taking the average of all the placements of all past celebrities and breaking them down by age group (teens, 20s, 30s, 40s, etc), it came to pass that those in their teens through 30s tend to do better than those in their 40s on up. As in on average three placements better. That being said, the celebs (on average) place lower in accordance with their age… with one notable exception: those in their 60s tend to place higher than those in their 50s.
- Occupation: Again taking the average of all the placements of all past celebrities and breaking them down by occupation. I know there are a lot of celebs that work in multiple mediums, however, I am focusing on the medium that they are best know for. David Hasselhoff is known for Baywatch thus he’s known as an actor. Brandy is best known for her music thus she’s in the singer category. And yes Reality stars have their own category and those like Bristol Palin are found in the “other” category.
- Professional Dancer: And yes, I even went so far as to calculate the average placement of all the professional partners through all the seasons. I tried to normalize the result as much as possible, but obviously as much as I try to make this a scientific calculation, it is only half the battle.

After averaging all three of the above factors out I come up with a fairly decent representation of how the celebs could be placed in competition. Granted things will change with every passing season, but we’ll see how things go.

In Part II of the DWTS Stat Class: Who has the Edge? I will present the above three factors in action and give a bit of an analysis of each factor as well as my thoughts, and then follow that with a final averaged placement.

So for your reading enjoyment… I will give you the ranking of the pros (including Alec, Edyta, and Julianne for nostalgia’s sake) in order of ranking from highest to lowest.

The professional dancers (dancers participating on Season 11 are in bold):
1.) Derek Hough – 6 Seasons
2.) Julianne Hough – 5 Seasons
3.) Cheryl Burke – 9 Seasons
4.) Lacey Schwimmer – 3 Seasons
5.) Kym Johnson – 7 Seasons
6.) Chelsie Hightower – 3 Seasons
7.) Dmitry Chaplin – 2 Seasons
8.) Karina Smirnoff – 7 Seasons
9.) Louis van Amstel – 6 Seasons
10.) Mark Ballas – 6 Seasons
11.) Tony Dovolani – 9 Seasons
12.) Corky Ballas – 1 Season
13.) Maksim Chmerkovskiy – 8 Seasons
14.) Anna Trebunskaya – 5 Seasons
15.) Edyta Sliwinska – 10 Seasons
16.) Alec Mazo – 5 Seasons
17.) Ashly Costa (nee DelGrosso) – 4 Seasons
18.) Jonathan Roberts – 7 Seasons

September 14, 2010 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS 10: Final Dance Predictions

So here we are… the Finals. The last week of Dancing with the Stars for the season until the Fall Season starts and the cycle begins again.

Normally I would do a breakdown of dances and predict a score… since most of the dances are rehashes of what they have done previously I will only provide the score they have achieved when they did the dance the first time around:

Erin Andrews / Maksim Chmerkovskiy
Monday Night:

Judges Choice: Samba – Week 6: 25/30
Freestyle
- Season 4 (w/ Laila Ali): 26/30
- Season 5 (w/ Melanie Brown): 27/30

Tuesday Night:
Argentine Tango – Week 8: 28/30
Viennese Waltz(?) – Week 9: 27/30

Nicole Scherzinger / Derek Hough
Monday Night:

Judges Choice: Rumba – Week 4: 25/30
Freestyle
- Season 7 (w/ Brooke Burke): 30/30

Tuesday Night:
Argentine Tango – Week 9: 30/30
Jive – Week 2: 28/30

Evan Lysacek / Anna Trebunskaya
Monday Night:

Judges Choice: Viennese Waltz – Week 1: 23/30
Freestyle
- Season 2 (w/ Jerry Rice): 27/30

Tuesday Night:
Argentine Tango – Week 7: 30/30
Quickstep – Week 3: 26/30

Read more..

May 24, 2010 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Week 9 Predictions

Here is the predictions to the semi-finals! Just one week shy of the finals… whoever leaves here today will miss out in the worst way possible… And now without further ado… the predictions!

Erin Andrews / Maksim Chmerkovskiy
Viennese Waltz
- Season 5 (w/ Melanie Brown, Week 4): 26/30
- Season 5 (w/ Melanie Brown, Week 9): 30/30
Looking at comparable TV personalities…
- Season 7 (Brooke Burke w/ Derek Hough, Week 3): 28/30
- Season 7 (Brooke Burke w/ Derek Hough, Week 10): 30/30
Prediction: 26/30

Paso Doble
- Season 7 (w/ Misty May Treanor, Week 2): 21/30
- Season 5 (w/ Melanie Brown, Week 7): 30/30
- Season 4 (w/ Laila Ali, Week 4): 21/30
Prediction: 25/30

Evan Lysacek / Anna Trebunskaya
Foxtrot
- Season 9 (w/ Chuck Liddell, Week 1): 16/30
- Season 6 (w/ Steve Guttenberg, Week 1): 18/30
- Season 2 (w/ Jerry Rice, Week 4): 24/30
Prediction: 27/30

Paso Doble
- Season 2 (w/ Jerry Rice, Week 6): 23/30
Looking at other comparable Olympians…
- Season 4 (Apolo Anton Ohno w/ Julianne Hough, Week 8): 30/30
- Season 6 (Kristi Yamaguchi w/ Mark Ballas, Week 4): 29/30
- Season 8 (Shawn Johnson w/ Mark Ballas, Week 9): 29/30
Prediction: 28/30

Chad Ochocinco / Cheryl Burke
Waltz
- Season 8 (w/ Gilles Marini, Week 10): 30/30
- Season 4 (w/ Ian Ziering, Week 4): 24/30
- Season 3 (w/ Emmitt Smith, Week 7): 28/30
- Season 3 (w/ Emmitt Smith, Week 9): 29/30
Prediction: 23/30

Samba
- Season 9 (w/ Tom DeLay, Week 3): 15/30
- Season 8 (w/ Gilles Marini, Week 3): 27/30
- Season 7 (w/ Maurice Greene, Week 4): 20/30
- Season 6 (w/ Cristian de la Fuente, Week 7): 21/30
- Season 6 (w/ Cristian de la Fuente, Week 9): 29/30
- Season 4 (w/ Ian Ziering, Week 5): 24/30
- Season 3 (w/ Emmitt Smith, Week 5): 27/30
- Season 2 (w/ Drew Lachey, Week 5): 27/30
Prediction: 24/30

Nicole Scherzinger / Derek Hough
Argentine Tango
- Season 8 (w/ Lil Kim, Week 4): 27/30
Prediction: 28/30

ChaCha
- Season 9 (w/ Joanna Krupa, Week 9): 27/30
- Season 8 (w/ Lil Kim, Week 1): 21/30
- Season 7 (w/ Brooke Burke, Week 1): 23/30
- Season 6 (w/ Shannon Elizabeth, Week 1): 21/30
- Season 5 (w/ Jennie Garth, Week 9): 30/30
Prediction: 29/30

Honestly, in my opinion it’s Chad’s turn to go home… as for who would be in the “bottom two” with him? I don’t think there would be a “bottom two” I think the person they would push to be in the “danger zone” in an attempt to even out the odds would be Erin Andrews… though if they did Nicole that would also make sense.

May 17, 2010 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)