Free DWTS Newsletter Want to receive the latest news on Dancing with the Stars sent straight to your email? Join hundreds of other DWTS fans who subscribe to Pure DWTS for FREE!

Dancing with the Stars Season 16: Week 5 Score Predictions

Oh thank goodness this is a semi-reasonable week… in a sense of that all the dances this week were good old-fashioned ballroom dances. So how are the couples going to stack up?
DWTS16-Week5Predict
And I say “HA!” with the Sean / Peta ranking… that is just so wrong on so many levels, but what can I do? The other numbers in the spreadsheet are showing nothing for one reason or another… and unless I had forgotten something, ah well.

And as for last week’s scores against the predictions:
Read more..

April 15, 2013 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 16: Week 4 Score Predictions

*sighs* And it is another contemporary dance that throws off the predictions this week. Go figure. This time (according to Heidi’s Who is Dancing What and When) it is Aly / Mark with the contemporary routine.

Predictions are slightly different this week as they are the averages of the scores from the previous seasons from the “First Third” and the “Second Third” of previous seasons. “First Third” being the first four weeks of the season and the “Second Third” being the middle four weeks of the season.

DWTS16-Week4Predict

So what about last week? Well…
Read more..

April 8, 2013 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 16: Week 3 Score Predictions

You know if it weren’t for that darn Contemporary dance that Victor / Lindsay are dancing I would actually have had I would have proper rankings this time around… but as it stands we are probably going to be stuck with average scores from here on out.

Ah well…

DWTS16-Week3Predict
If I have time after work today I’ll add more to the list… but really, what’s there to say?

Oh… and if you are curious about how the calculated predictions panned out on Week 1 and Week 2…
WEEK 1
DWTS16-Week1Actual

WEEK 2
DWTS16-Week2Actual

April 1, 2013 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 16: Week 1 Score Predictions

Here you have it folks the first predicted scores of the season… You didn’t think I’d forget did ya? Well I thought I did, since I seem to have forgotten that the start of the season was today! Geez, you’d think I would have this on my calendar somewhere.

Anyway… after looking at the dances that are scheduled for the first week I realized that my typically spreadsheet data is going to be thrown into the dumpster because everything has gone astray! don’t believe me? Take a look for yourself…
DWTS16-Week1Predict
I can’t even rank them! Ugh…

So I don’t know what to do… at least at the moment. I am tempted to just do the score prediction and not even bothering with how they rank because contemporary is such an outlier and out of box concept for ballroom dancers that it just doesn’t seem quite fair.

Grr grr grr…

. . .

Ah well… let’s see how this first week pans out before I really throw in the white towel… I am sure in the coming weeks something will reveal itself so I could provide the best calculations I know for you guys to enjoy.

Maybe I do have to include Season 15 afterall… gosh darn… it.

March 18, 2013 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 Stats Class: Week 6′s Elimination – Sabrina Bryan

Ok… I am not happy… I mean Sabrina was actually growing and doing better and better. She was actually opening up and she has such an engaging personality it is like, “what the hell?” But then again TPTB probably have so much invested in Gilles and Kelly that Sabrina got the short end of the stick…

Ah well… what can you do? I know it has been a while since I did one of these… but in all honesty it is getting towards that point in the season where the comparison statistics may actually look decent. Don’t believe me? Let’s look at the chart where it compares the predicted scores with the actuals between Sabrina’s original Season 5 and the current Season 15:


Confused? Yeah I was too… but before I break the above down even further… let’s look at the data between Season 5 and Season 15:


There… now that you have the data let’s go back to the charts:
Read more..

November 1, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

Dancing with the Stars Season 15 Stats Class: Week 1′s Elimination – Pamela Anderson

The first eliminated couple of the season: Pamela Anderson and Tristan MacManus

But really was this a surprise? Taking a look at some of the past data and

Back in June, we asked you the reader to choose your favorite celebrities across the seasons and I had recently posted the results of the popularity polls of celebrities taken from your favorites. On this list it did not appear that Pamela was in the Top 20 of the female celebrities… so already just from those summer polls alone there were signs that Pamela probably wouldn’t have the popularity vote by her side.

She was given the lowest score of the night on Monday… and even my elimination predictions have her not just towards the bottom of the list… but in last place as well. The Week 1 Score Predictions had her scored second the last ranking just above Kelly Monaco and Valentin Chmerkovskiy (who scored far higher on Monday night).

So yeah, she didn’t really have a lot going for her here no matter how you look at it.

So enough with what happened during Week 1… let’s look back with her time prior to Season 15. How did she fare and did she even stand a chance? Well hard to say. So what I did was go back in time and looked at her actual scores during her time on Season 10 and compared it with how her score predictions would have looked prior to Season 10. Then for the hell of it I also added the scores predicted for Season 15 using the same dances from Season 10… and let’s say the results were fascinating…

First the table:

Looking at the numbers alone she was all over the spectrum. There were some dances she scored higher than… while others she scores below… and still others right on par. But if we were to take the average score from the predicted scores of Season 10 vs the actual scores…
Season 10 Average Prediction: 21.708
Season 10 Average Actual: 22.286

Almost a whole half-point difference. Which sometimes doesn’t seem like a lot, but in the world of stats and mathematics is a hell of a whole lot.

So how does this look like on a graph?

Her actual scores from Season 10 appear to be all over the spectrum when compared to the Season 10 predicted scores… while when compared with the Season 15 predictions are a little more in line…

Interesting.

Now I wouldn’t go so far as to say whether she was over or under scores in any capacity mainly because I have to rewatch the episodes to know that… but I am kind of curious to see how the other celebrities stack up in hindsight when comparing their actual scores with the various predictions.

September 27, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 10 Scorecard

Whelp… the last scorecard for Season 14… I’m going to skip to the niceties and just go straight to the table of score differentiation:

Am I the only one that is mildly entertained that William has the largest point difference between his predicted scores and actual scores… with Katherine a point beneath that. While in the meantime, Donald is actually a lot closer being just one point off from the past? When you add the scores from Tuesday night’s show into the table Donald has the smallest point difference of the final three…

So let’s look at William’s scoring progression:

Although there are times over the season that William appears to score similar to what was originally predicted or even below, for the most part he has scored a few points over the predicted score. So let’s look at everyone else.

Read more..

May 23, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 9 Scorecard

Semi-finals week… aka Week 9, by now you should know who is going home… but before we begin let’s look at the scoring breakdown from Monday night’s show.

Yeeeeaaaah, so looking at the actual to predicted scores, Katherine/Mark has the smallest point difference. Whileas with the other three couples, there is a point difference of either 4 or 5 with the largest point difference being Maria/Derek with 5 points.

Looking at this upfront, it would appear that Katherine would be going home, since she is closest to the predicted score, but as we have seen in some of the previous weeks, the couple with the largest point difference could also be going home…

Let’s look at Maria’s scoring progression over the past nine weeks:

Read more..

May 16, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Week 8 Scorecard

Since Week 8 is a double elimination week, I felt that it would probably benefit everyone if I went ahead and did a scorecard for this week and probably will continue to do so for the last two weeks of the season thereafter.

So to start, let’s look at how the actual scores on the show compared with those that were predicted:

Before we start, the very last column is just the summation of the differences between the two dances that each couple has to dance.

Read more..

May 9, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Weeks 4 thru 7 Scorecard

So here we are… we are now officially through “two-thirds” of the season and I’ve been updating and cleaning up my spreadsheet, so that way I could create graphs for you to see how the predicted scores compared with the actual scores of the celebrities that have left us since Week 4 (eventually I’ll update the previous scorecard to include graphs for the first few weeks of the season).

In case you have forgotten from the last time, the initials “P – A – D” are simply:
- Predicted: this is the original calculated predicted scores
- Actual: this is the score that the celeb/pro pairing actually received on the show
- Difference: is the point difference between the predicted and actual scores

So if you would recall from Week 4:

I mentioned that there was a 2 point difference with some scores being close/spot on versus scores that were way off. For three weeks Katherine/Mark was getting the largest score difference (5 – 5 – 6) and now they have virtually none.

So far Gavin seems the most steady to history with another zero (0) point difference week.

There also seems to be a shift happening with the largest point difference:
- Roshon/Chelsie: 5 points
- Donald/Peta: 4 points

Did this affect standings of the couples that were in danger on Week 4? Well it depends on how you look at it. Roshon/Chelsie had a massive point difference and they were in the Bottom Two. While Sherri/Val had the average point difference of two and they were sent packing.

Speaking of Sherri, let’s look at how her actual scores on the show compared with the predicted scores over the four weeks she was on the show:

Read more..

May 2, 2012 I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)