Well, like I predicted last week, the judges made a clear difference between the top three and the bottom two, with Noah hovering somewhere in the middle. This should be a slam dunk for the top three, but I heard something that made me wonder. Tom was very clear that everyone should make note of Rumer’s number and make sure they were dialing it right. “Check that number and dial carefully.” Interesting.
Anyway, let’s look at the leaderboard weeks 7 and 8.
As you can see, there is a nice spread between the upper tier and the lower tier. Frankly, if anyone in the top three goes home, they just weren’t getting the votes and that’s the way it works. If anyone is shocking, I suspect Rumer, for reasons stated above. But I’m thinking they’ve protected her enough. Robert is our low scorer let’s see what he has to do to be safe.
Now, he actually has to do better than TWO people, not just one, because it’s a double elimination. Honestly, I have a hard time believing that he’s doing it. I mean, who is he going to beat?? Chris? Well that ain’t enough. Noah? I have a hard time believing that he’s getting the 12k votes per million votes cast to beat him, but I could be wrong. Here’s what Robert needs to be safe. He needs TWO of the following things to happen:
- Robert needs to get 3,000 more votes per million votes cast than Chris, And/or;
- Robert needs to get 12,000 more votes per million votes cast than Noah, AND/OR;
- Robert needs to get 32,500 more votes per million votes cast than Riker, AND/OR;
- Robert needs to get 35,500 more votes per million votes cast than either Nastia or Rumer.
Now you see why I think it’s likely he goes home tomorrow night? But I jump ahead. That’s Robert – and as much as I like him I can see him maybe beating Chris, but not Chris AND Noah. While I think Rumer may have been in trouble last week, surely this is a big enough margin for her to be safe, right?
I dunno. That brings us to Chris. What does he need to be safe. Well, see below.
Nearly 10k to get past Noah, close to 30k to beat Riker and 33k to beat either Nastia or Rumer. I don’t see any of these things happening. At best, if he’s safe it’s because Robert couldn’t beat him and he’s actually beating Noah.
At the end of the day, I think Nastia gets the one vote to beat Rumer, and I have to wonder if Riker is beating both women. Anyway, I think that Nastia and Riker are safe. I’m leaning toward Noah being safe as well. What does he need? Well, the best thing would be for neither Chris nor Robert covering the spread. If they do, here’s what Noah needs:
Essentially, he needs well more than 20k votes per million votes cast to beat Riker, Rumer or Nastia. I honestly have NO IDEA how he’s doing in terms of votes. None at all. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Robert beat him tomorrow…but at the same time I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the final. We’ll have to wait and see.
My gut says that tomorrow is when we see the last of Robert and Chris, but I have to say that the harping two weeks in a row on Rumer’s phone number is making me wonder if she’s not getting the votes…not to mention her being in jeopardy last week. What would have to happen for Rumer to be eliminated?? All but one of the following (since it’s a double elimination):
- Robert would have to get 35.5k more votes per million votes cast than Rumer, AND;
- Chris would have to get 32.5k more votes per million votes cast than Rumer, AND;
- Noah would have to get 23.7k more votes per million votes cast than Rumer, AND;
- Riker would have to get 3,000 more votes per millon votes cast than Rumer, AND;
- Nastia would have to get 1 more vote per million votes cast than Rumer.
Those are pretty serious (but not unheard of) numbers for Robert, Chris and Noah to get in order for Rumer to go home. Same goes for Nastia, since she’s tied with Rumer. It’s slightly dangerous because I think that Nastia and Riker are doing it, and if Noah is also killing it in votes then that means that only one of Chris or Robert has to beat her for her to go home.
I don’t really think it’s going to happen, but some of the word selection by Erin and Tom makes one wonder.
So, my bottom three is Robert, Chris and Noah, with Robert and Chris going home. But honestly, nothing would shock me at this point except Riker and Nastia – and only then because TPTB haven’t been acting slightly desperate about either of them. Which will be really telling if one of them is eliminated.