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DWTS Season 14, Week 4 – Just What Caused That “Shocking” Elimination??

I always see lots of wild theories flying around after (and this time BEFORE) a DWTS Results show about why someone got eliminated. My future former husband, Tom Bergeron, was one of the people acting a bit cray cray – or he hit his head at the same time Melissa did. :-)

Seriously, the only thing shocking the other night was that Roshon  in the bottom two on a night with such a nice spread. So, let’s take a look at what all had to happen for Sherri to leave and for Roshon to find himself in a real bottom 2 situation.

The Sherri deal is pretty easy to explain.  Gladys got at least 4,300 more vote per million votes cast than Sherri did. Not a huge number and, considering she’s Gladys Knight, not at all shocking or surprising. The woman is an icon, fer cryin’ out loud.  The other part of Sherri’s equation is the other contestants. The important thing to remember is BOTH sides of the equation…it’s not that they might be getting more votes than Sherri at all. She might have been getting similar numbers  of votes as all of them, BUT because she had a lower score, it’s not enough to get “the same” number of votes as everyone else, she had to get MORE. That’s what I’m talking about every week in my numbers posts. She has to cover the spread and beat it by a vote.  And this week, that was 4,300 votes to surpass either William, Jaleel or Melissa – the next closest competitors.

Let me explain it another way: say that Melissa gets 10,000 votes on Monday night and Gladys knocks it out of the park, getting a ton of votes. In order for Sherri to stay, she would have had to get 14,300 votes. Period. It’s that simple, really.  If Sherri is getting MORE votes than Melissa, she can still go home if she doesn’t cover that spread. If Melissa is getting 10,000 votes and Sherri gets 14,000, Sherri still goes home.  Now, the reason why the judges are actually important and why it’s important that they do their job well is because the voters don’t do that good of a job either.  I don’t find it impossible to believe that Sherri was getting more votes than several dancers…just not ENOUGH more. If that makes sense. :-) THIS is why it’s not a good idea to leave it up to just the viewers or just the judges – they balance each other’s crazy. :-) Read more..

April 12, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

PureDWTS Season 14 Las Vegas Odds For April 12th: Do you agree with the odds makers?

We’ve got another twist this week in the Las Vegas Odds. According to Las Vegas Sports Betting, William Levy (for the first time) has made a dip to 2nd/3rd place (for however you want to read it) compared to first place in previous weeks since the season started. They’ve tied Katherine and Donald in a strong 1st position. Maria is in a 3rd/4th place postition with close to same odds that she had last week….

Donald Driver 2/1
Katherine Jenkins 2/1
William Levy 9/4
Maria Menounos 8/1
Jaleel White 15/1
Roshon Fegan 25/1
Melissa Gilbert 30/1
Gavin DeGraw 75/1
Gladys Knight 100/1

So, what do you think? Do the odds makers have it correct this time? I agree with them for the most part except for Roshon. They are totally underestimating his ability to dance in my opinion. I also think Jaleel needs to be lower on the list. Maria should be ahead of William as well. Let’s get my girls Heidi and Courtney’s thoughts? Be sure you let us know your thoughts as well in the comments section.

Heidi: These odds dudes have to be going insane. :-)  They had William at 7/2 after the first dance (first place) and had Katherine at 7/2.  After the second dance, William shot to 2/1 and now he falls again.  Maria has remained relatively unchanged, but everyone else has been all over the place. And I’m sorry, but if Roshon falls into the bottom 2 with a high score, I sure wouldn’t be saying he’s 25/1.  It’s not just about the dancing!  These guys need to hire us.  What’s really weird is that this is the highest Katherine has ever been…on her worst week. Crack is wack. :-)

Courtney: I’m just marveling at what a profit these bookies stand to make regardless of the outcome of this season – see, these odds add up to more than 100% (the total probability of of someone winning DWTS), so the percentage over 100% – the “overround” is proportional to the profit the bookie stands to make, based on how much is being staked (betted).  Unless Gladys or Gavin manages to come from behind and win this season, and there was a lot of money being bet on them, these bookies are sitting pretty :-) Just a short little peek into the fascinating world of fixed odds betting.  But anywho! I think the oddsmakers are finally starting to calibrate with the rhythm of this season, as these seem to be the most plausible odds we’ve seen from them yet.  I still think they’re overestimating William, and also Roshon – unless they’ve already started to anticipate how the judges might vote in the dance duel, in which case I think they could be more on-the-money.  Based on the judges’ critiques, I’m guessing those two will probably both spared by the judges, should they fall into the bottom 2 – unless it’t with Katherine, Maria, or each other. It will be interesting to see how the odds change after the first dance duel next week – the judges’ behavior could throw the odds into a tailspin. It’s something the oddsmakers haven’t really had to take into account for awhile.

I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

DWTS Season 14 – A Peek Behind the Scenes

And the result of one man’s trip to DWTS confirms something that we have discussed here on this blog in the not to recent past!! Billy Masters was recently at the show and had the following to say on his Windy City Times Web Site:

And yet, there I was at Dancing with the Stars last week. With several friends on the show, I wanted to be supportive. Plus, I’m on the East Coast for the next few weeks. There’s a good chance that one (or all) of them will be voted off by then! My first surprise of the night was bumping into Chi Chi La Rue and Doug Jeffries at the VIP check-in. (La Rue is friends with Bruno Tonioli.) Before the show starts, the judges and hosts are introduced to the audience. The person who generated the loudest applause was Bruno! Girlfriend knows how to work it.

I’m not accusing anyone of cheating, but I must tell you that the audience is encouraged to cheer more for certain stars than others. For instance, before William Levy’s dance, we were instructed to be up on our feet and really get into his salsa (something I didn’t need prompting for). I don’t recall anyone asking us to get excited about Melissa Gilbert Brinkman Boxleitner.

I love watching how “celebrities” treat fans. Some are great, some try to avoid them, but most fall in between. I am surprised, nay shocked, to say that the most personable participant was Derek Hough. Everyone I’ve shared this information with is surprised—I guess people expect him to be a little aloof and cocky. (They might be thinking of Ryan Seacrest, who I hear has a little … well, never mind.) Derek was lovely to everyone who went up to him. Of course, my beloved Sherri Shepherd is just a girl who can’t say no and was everyone’s best friend by the end of the night. And I was impressed to see that sexy Levy remained remarkably composed and gracious when two girls ran down to the dance floor during a commercial to take a photo with him. Where, oh where, was security?

Gee, I’m so shocked that they were encouraged to get up and be crazy for William – I had no idea that the producers of this show could be so manipulative!!! Yes, that was sarcasm. :-) This is where I say, gently…I told you so. ;-) Wonder what Courtney and Vogue would say about this…

Courtney: Here, let me put on my “fake surprised” face 8O Seriously, the fact that people balk at the idea that the audience is somehow “coached” actually makes me balk at them in return – every single person I know that has been to the live taping (and I know several) has commented on how they’re told when to clap, how loud to clap, when to sit down, when to stand up, when to look happy, when to look shocked, etc. My boyfriend actually commented on what a drag it was, as he was exhausted from all the fake enthusiasm by the end of the show. All live audiences are coached to a certain degree, and I would venture a guess that the DWTS audience falls more on the “extremely coached” end of the spectrum. But the question still remains: why push William so hard on the audience?

Vogue: How sad to encourage the audience to applaud more for some celebrities and not others!! What the?? Something is wrong with this picture and what’s more, phoney and unfair! As for Derek, I’m not surprised he is more personable and sweet than some of the other pros. I’ve never understood why some would think he is cocky? When has he ever been cocky on this show? It’s not in his makeup in the least. Yep, Heidi and Court, you told us so!!

April 11, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Weeks 1 thru 4 Scorecard

So I’ve been asked a few times if I would do a scorecard of my predictions up to this point since about a third of the season has gone by. I figured: “Why not?” It would be interesting to see just how off the calculated predictions are.

To get started if you noticed there are the initials “P – A – D” this is simply: “Predicted – Actual – Difference”
– Predicted: this is the original calculated predicted scores
– Actual: this is the score that the celeb/pro pairing actually received on the show
– Difference: is the point difference between the predicted and actual scores

So lets look at Week 1:

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I Written By

My life can be summed up in the following two quotes: 1) "I am married to engineering and am its faithful wife by day, but at night my wanderlust takes hold and the arts becomes my jealous paramour." and... 2) "Engineering is my safety net. Writing is my passion. Acting is my escape when the other two become too much." So where does dancing fit in? Pretty much anywhere at this point... =)

DWTS14 Week 4 Interviews After The Elimination, Next Week’s Latin Dances Revealed (Videos)

George Pennacchio of On The Red Carpet interviewed some of the couples last night after the elimination. He gets their thoughts on Sherri and Val. He also asks them on their comfort zones and next week’s “latin” dance. Let’s see what he found out….

First, Peta and Donald tell George it’s just “crazy” and “awful” for how Sherri was eliminated. Peta is sad and tears it up. It could be anyone to leave including them. It’s Latin week next week and they have the Argentine Tango. They are going to work hard. Donald is ready for the challenge in getting out of his comfort zone as always.

Maks explains what happened Monday night when Melissa got hurt. At this time, he doesn’t know how he is going to approach their upcoming dance and future. He questions everything and doesn’t want to hurt her. He also talks of Val and Sherri’s elimination and feels sorry for them. He says Val feels like it’s his fault and feels bad for them.

Roshon says he had no idea he’d be at this level on Dancing With The Stars. He’s learning so much and hopes to keep doing so. They talk of how hard it was to see Sherri go. Next week’s dance for these two will be the Salsa. Chelsie wants to refine his salsa technique. It will be sexy. They are going for 10’s next week as they never want to be in the bottom two again.

Katherine is glad she was able to get out of her comfort zone this week and it was one of the best experiences ever. The Argentine Tango is their next dance. Katherine is the most excited about learning this dance. Mark says he hopes to tell a very passionate story and keep it straight edge. They have nothing but kind words for Val and Sherri.

Read more..

I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

PureDWTS 14 Saying So Long To Sherri Shepherd And Val Chmerkovskiy (Media)

And so we say so long to another couple on Dancing With The Stars Season 14….this time Val and Sherri in a (semi)shocking elimination. I have to admit that these two really wrapped themselves around one of my fingers these last few weeks with their humor and entertainment factor. I thought Sherri’s spirit was genuine about her love for this show and learning how to dance. I also loved it last night when she said to take on the things you are most scared of and how that can make you the happiest in this life “on the other side”. It was a beautiful and powerful message…and it’s so true. Being as opposite as they were in personality, Val and Sherri couldn’t have been more suited together too. I think they taught one another a lot. Would you agree? I’m going to look forward to seeing them again at the end of the season. I can’t wait to see Val in some pro numbers from here on out as well. So, let’s get to some interviews with these two after the show….

First up, here they are on Jimmy Kimmel LIVE last night to burn her shoes….

Below is their On The Red Carpet interview….

UPDATE: Instead of Good Morning America, Sherri and val were interviewed by The View today In New York….

I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

SPOILERS!!! DWTS Season 14, Week 4 – Who Got the Boot??

Well, Tom warned us it was a shocking elimination, that’s for sure.  I predicted they would call Gavin safe very early. Just sayin’. :-) That’s the only thing I got right tonight, but it’s something.

Eliminated in the fourth week?  Sherri and Val. Shocker. Not from a number standpoint…from a popularity standpoint.

Here are our predictions for who was going home:

Heidi: After a good bit of waffeling, I predicted Jaleel going home with either Melissa or Gladys in the bottom two with him.

Courtney: Had Gavin in her bottom spot in the power rankings, along with Melissa.

John: Called Jaleel on Twitter…AFTER I posted my numbers. Cheater cheater pumpkin eater. :-D

We were ALL wrong.

Anyway, Roshon in the bottom two and Gladys safe…do you know how many votes Gladys had to get?? An assload more than Roshon did, that’s for sure. To be precise, 27,500 votes more per million votes cast. Now that doesn’t necessarily mean Gladys was getting a ton of votes…it might just mean that that Roshon was getting none.  I may just do a post on this elimination so that people understand what it took.

I would be lying if I said I wasn’t hoping for a different person to be eliminated. I’m not a Sherri fan, but she LOVED this show and everything about it…she appreciated every moment and was obviously happy every week. She is what this show is all about.

I’m unhappy.  I’m imagine I will be unhappy most weeks from here on out. :-(

 

April 10, 2012 I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

ABC Releases Dancing With The Stars Season14 Week 4 Dancer Confessionals (Video)

These are always fun and this time is no different! Derek’s hair cracks me up!

I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.

DWTS Season 14, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, well, well….as predicted, the real judges came back to life and gave a few of our couples a little dash of reality. Sherri and William being most notable. Of course, next week is Latin week so I expect William will regain something of his status, since it plays to his strenghts. Sherri too, for that matter.  If both are still around next week…and there is no guarantee.  Didn’t seem to me that William was getting as much love from the audience this week either.  We’ll see.  The benefit of this REAL scoring is that Gavin isn’t at the bottom of the score board and we know he’s been in the real bottom two the last two weeks…so now we will REALLY see who the other weak links are. :-)  I also get the sense that Gavin is gaining in popularity – I LOLed at his “Absolutely not” in answer to Brooke’s question about if he did enough to stay out of the bottom two. I can’t be the only one who is finding him totally endearing.

Let’s look at the couples and their percentages of the total:

The Judges Scores and Percentages

Place Celebrity Score Percentage
1. Donald  27 11.59
2. Maria  26 11.16
2. Roshon 26 11.16
4. Katherine 24 10.30
5. Gavin 23 9.87
6. Melissa 22 9.44
6. William 22 9.44
6. Jaleel 22 9.44
9. Sherri 21 9.01
10. Gladys 20 8.58

Despite what some fans were claiming on twitter, we actually have a real live spread this week between the high and low scores.  Now, our bottom position is Gladys…and I just don’t have a feel for how she’s doing with the voters. She is sooo amazing and sweet…but her dance was a bit of a train wreck. So what does Gladys need in order to stick around? She needs ONE of the following things:

–          Gladys needs 4,300 more votes per million votes cast than Sherri, OR;

–          Gladys needs 8,600 more votes per million votes cast than EITHER William, Jaleel or Melissa, OR;

–          Gladys needs 12,880 more votes per million votes cast than Gavin, OR;

–          Gladys needs 17,170 more votes per million votes cast than Katherine, OR;

–          Gladys needs 25,760 more votes per million votes cast than either Maria or Roshon, OR;

–          Gladys needs 30,050 more votes per million votes cast than Donald.

Read more..

I Written By

I'm a nerd and proud of it. Two degrees in geology also means I love BEER. :-) I'm also a Derek lover - proud of that too. So don't scream at those of us on this site and call us a bunch of "biased Derek-lovers" - it's just ME. :-) It may sound like I hate DWTS at times, but really, I'm just a snarky nitpicker from way back. And I'm cynical and jaded too. But I do love DWTS. :-)

Dancing With The Stars 14 Week 4 Media After The Dance Part 2 (Videos)

How is your Tuesday going so far? I hope super. Do you need some more interviews after last night’s dance? If so, here we are again with a recap and a review from Good Morning America with Cameron Mathison and Carson Kressley. Carson picks Gladys or Jaleel to go home which I totally agree with and hopefully, it’s the latter. 8O

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Louis Van Amstel also reviewed the night in a new blog for Good Morning America. He is the most worried for Gladys tonight. I think he is wrong about Donald and Peta. They deserved more than a 7 and two 8’s. No way did Gavin deserve three 8’s, but hey. :) See if you agree or disagree with him?

Read more..

I Written By

I'm a fashion and music fan....and I have always loved dancing too of any kind. Dancing With The Stars seems to have this way of bringing all of those things together. One of my favorite dancing quotes at the moment: "No matter what, nobody can take away the dance you've already had...." ~Gleb Savchenko . For fun music and dance mixes, visit WilUnleashed Soundcloud.