Today they showed rehearsal footage of Val and Sherri rehearsing for their Tango tonight on The View. “Pull, push, pull, push”! Val explains Sherri’s obstacles and maintaining her frame and “Bye bye Val”. lol More below…
Now we are nearing the midway point of the season. For anyone that noticed my comments in previous posts, I have broken up every season in “thirds” for easier calculations. What do I mean by this? What I have been trying to do is that for the first “third” of a season, I only use the first four weeks of scores to come up with a predicted score for the first four weeks of the current season. Consequently when it reached Week Four, I’ll shift into using the middle four weeks of all previous seasons (10 week seasons that is) and use that as a basis for predictions. The idea is that using scores from later in the season (ie Week 7 thru 10) would not make sense for predict scores for the beginning of the season (ie Week 1 thru 3). In this way I had hoped that the predicted scores would come out to be closer to accurate than if I were to use scores willy-nilly from any point of any season.
Unfortunately not all seasons are the same length – like how not all casts are the same size – so I had to find some “normalization” for the length of the season. So I broke up a season into “thirds”. In a ten week season:
- “First Third” includes Weeks 1 through 4
- “Middle Third” includes Weeks 4 through 7
- “Last Third” includes Weeks 7 through 10
While in Season 1′s six-week season:
- “First Third” includes Weeks 1 and 2
- “Middle Third” includes Weeks 3 and 4
- “Last Third” includes Weeks 5 and 6
Why is there an overlap of Week 4 and 7 in the ten-week season format? I did that specifically to keep it semi-realistic of the skill level of all the celebs, and to have a decent broad-base of the “thirds” rather than a more cut-throat approach. Since this is the first season that I’m testing these particular calculations out… we’ll see my season finale scorecard fares in the off-season.
But enough with my blabbering… onward to the predicted scores!
Dance: Viennese Waltz
- Age: 22.000
- Occupation: N/A
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 21 / 10th
Comments: Oddly enough, the only Disney kid to have any trouble with the Viennese Waltz was Season 7′s Cody Linley with Edyta Śliwińska (who was subbing for the then injured Julianne Hough), but he received a 22. Season 11′s Kyle Massey and Season 12′s Chelsea Kane received a 27 and 26 respectively… so I highly doubt that Roshon is going to score lower than Cody, will he score as high as Kyle or Chelsea? It’s rather hard to say considering that Chelsie has only done a Viennese Waltz at the beginning of the season (Season 10 with Jake Pavelka for 20 and Season 11 with Michael Bolton for 16) or at the end of the season (Season 8 with Ty Murray for 25). Middle of the season will be interesting for this pairing.
- Age: 23.000
- Occupation: 26.000
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 9th
Comments: Being the first singer in her 60s to be on the show, there isn’t much data to work off of (how about virtually none), the closest would be Season 5′s Wayne Newton with Cheryl Burke… but they got an 18 and Gladys is nowhere near as stiff as Wayne Newton. I do think in some ways the 23 is realistic, give or take a point.
As promised, Dance Junkies TV interviewed the beautiful Anna Trebunskaya. Rib Hillis and Stuart Brazell host. They run through last week’s performances and get Anna’s predictions. See if you don’t agree?
I don’t think Sherri Shepherd is going to make it to the finals, but, we’ll see?
Stay tuned, Stuart tells us they plan to post an ‘Ask the Pro’ full length interview with Anna on Thursday!!!
For the life of me, I can’t figure out how these dances get handed out. I guess it must have to do with the stupid “Rock Week” Theme. They assign songs and the dance style is determined by the song?? In any case, it leads to a big ole WTF in terms of dance styles on a given night.
I’ve taken a stab at guessing at the order – which is extremely difficult when you’ve got a Jive and a V. Waltz in with all the Tangos and Pasos. Again, the running order is going to be more a function of not having all five Tangos in a row. The question is – are the going to back load or front load the two odd dances. That is, save them toward the end or put them in the beginning…or one of each??
ETA: I was only off by one place for William and Cheryl…unfortunately in the wrong direction.
ETA 2: I feel the need to say, one more time – the running order is not automatically the kiss of death OR the mark of a great dancer. Particularly on theme weeks when there are a lot of similar dances. The posts Courtney has done in the past regarding the worst spot to dance are STATISTICS: they are not guarantees nor are they predictions. That’s one of the dangers of statistics – people have a tendency to misuse them. That said…William (aka God’s Gift to women everywhere :::snort:::) is being followed by….ROSHON. Bwahahahaha…okay, sorry. Just had to point that out to the William fans who have been making outrageous claims about him in the comments. Remember children, it’s just a dancing show…not the cure for cancer.
ETA 3: Karina says they’re dancing last…Maria told someone via DM that she “thinks” they’re going last. Since Maria didn’t sound sure, I’m giving it to Karina and guessing maybe Maria is 9th. Hard to say. VERY interesting if Gavin is indeed going last. Very interesting indeed.
ETA 4: Some song spoilers for you If I had to guess, I’d say Melissa might have “Seven Nation Army” by the White Stripes. Good, strong paso beat. -Court-
ETA 5: Hey, my second guess at Sherri and original guess for Melissa appears to be right on track. I am starting to believe that Maria is 9th. It’s possible that Jaleel and Gladys could be reversed.
Sherri and Val – Tango; Dancing 1st
Voting # 1-800-868-3406
Katherine and Mark – Paso Doble; Dancing 2nd (Song: Time is Running Out by Muse)
Voting # 1-800-868-3410
Jaleel and Kym – Tango (Song: Something by the Stones)
Voting # 1-800-868-3412
Melissa and Maks – Paso Doble; Dancing 4th (Song: Something by the White Stripes)
Voting # 1-800-868-3407
Donald and Peta – Paso Doble; Dancing 5th
Voting # 1-800-868-3403
Gladys and Tristan – Tango
Voting # 1-800-868-3411
William and Cheryl - Jive; Dancing 7th
Voting # 1-800-868-3408
Roshon and Chelsie – V. Waltz; Dancing 8th
Voting # 1-800-868-3405
Maria and Derek – Tango
Voting # 1-800-868-3401
Gavin and Karina – Tango; Dancing 10th (Song: Bohemian Rhapsody by Queen)
Voting # 1-800-868-3404
I think that tonight could be a test of what Donald and William are really made of, since both got styles that don’t seem like they would do well on, at least intuitively. I think it will be a test for Cheryl as well, to see how much actual Jive content she puts in the dance or if she finds a way to exploit the sexy (again). Roshon drew the V. Waltz card and he could find himself tested as well. As for everyone else…Gladys and Melissa will likely be challenged by the Tango since it requires a much sharper technique. Sherri needs to show passion in a different way than just having her mouth open in a grimace like she did for her rumba, since that was…odd looking. Gavin has a chance to dig himself out of the bottom two…although I don’t think there is anyone left to save him from the boot this time. Maria, Jaleel and Katherine?? I think they will be okay, especially Jaleel and Katherine…after all, Katherine has done a variation on Paso once before.
Yes, folks, we are GOING THERE. Be prepared.
The “Can’t Hit the Broad Side of A Barn” Award: Derek and Maria Menounos for a disturbing inability to high five…or kiss on the mouth…on the first try.
Heidi: I’ve read that these two have amazing chemistry…but what is the deal with their timing? The other night in the confessional wasn’t the first time they’ve had a “swing and a miss” when it comes to celebrating. And Damn, the first time Derek actually goes for a kiss during a dance and she arches her back so he grazes her…chin. At least she made up for it in the end, but dang. If it weren’t for her boyfriend I would start to think they were made for each other with the crazy assed timing issue. I would have to wonder if everything misses on the first try. Heh.
Courtney: Here’s the play-by-play of the kiss: Derek goes in for the kill, Maria resists, Derek ends up making out with chin, Maria changes mind, they almost get it right and then BOOM…it’s time to move on to the next step in their routine. *sigh* Sometimes in life, the timing is all wrong…and I mean that on both a small and large scale, within this context < /shipping>
The “Pssst…your costume tic is showing” Award, female: Cheryl Burke, for her affinity for loofah-inspired costuming
Courtney: Rub-a-dub-dub, Cheryl must love the tub – because seriously, I’ve never seen loofahs utilized in costuming (and so frequently!) until Cheryl started donning them in the past few seasons. Are they in case the mood to bathe & exfoliate suddenly hits her mid-dance? Who knows. But my wise little mommy made the observation that Cheryl seems to pile on the fluff & ruffles more often when she’s a bit more on the curvy side – which seems a bit counterintuitive, since they just add more bulk. If she really wanted to sleekify her frame, she should at least avoid all of these outrageous sherbet & Kool-Aid-colored ruffles and go for something black or neutral. But of course, that would be logical, and sometimes this show is anything but
Heidi: Is this her mid-life crisis showing?? What the hell? Lacey is off the show for the season so Cheryl has to pick up the gawdawful costuming slack?? And I still think blue peeps are illegal.
Aren’t these pics gorgeous? The Dancing With The Stars Make-up crew has released some “behind the scenes” shots for week three. Below is Karina and Peta getting ready for the show. If you’d like to see more pics, visit Dancing With The Stars Make-up’s official facebook page here. They may post more. So, be sure to keep watching the link.
Gear up Kiss fans! As promised last week by Tom Bergeron, the 70′s legendary rock band will be performing next week on Dancing With The Stars. What’s more, they will be performing for both nights. Below are some more details about the songs to be performed and also details about Karina dancing with ballet dancer Jose Manuel Carreno on Tuesday. Sabrina Bryan and Kyle Massey will also be performing. Say what? Yep, see why below. It’s going to be a great week to watch the Troupe dance as well. Who’s ready?
Rock Week returns, with KISS opening the show with a spectacular performance of “Rock and Roll All Nite,” accompanied by the Troupe. Bringing lots of leather and lots of fire, the remaining ten couples will perform to some of the greatest Rock songs of all time, MONDAY, APRIL 9 (8:00-10:01 p.m., ET) on the ABC Television Network.
On Tuesday, KISS hits the stage for another rockin’ performance of “Lick it Up,” with Mark Ballas, Chelsie Hightower, Henry Byalikov and Oksana Dmytrenko accompanying their performance. “DWTS” alums Sabrina Bryan and Kyle Massey will return to the ballroom with a sneak peek at their “Dancing with the Stars: Live in Las Vegas” show, which debuts April 14 at the New Tropicana Las Vegas. Also during Tuesday’s show, a special performance featuring Karina Smirnoff and one of the world’s best ballet dancers, Jose Manuel Carreno, who was a principal dancer with the Royal Ballet and the American Ballet Theatre. Their dance will be accompanied by a live performance from Gotan Project’s “Santa Maria,” the band’s U.S. network TV debut, and one more couple will be sent home, TUESDAY, APRIL10 (9:00-10:01 p.m., ET) on the ABC Television Network.
You can read more at the ABC MediaNet.
Access Hollywood went into the rehearsals of Sherri and Val yesterday to interview them on their upcoming Tango. Sherri says it’s going to be “wild” and there will be no more tears this week. Val says we are going to see Sherri’s best performance on Monday night. She’s feeling it and there is a lot more freedom in this dance. Lots more from these two below. Also note too that The View is planning to show Sherri and Val in rehearsal on Monday as well. So, stay tuned.
If you haven’t seen them yet, you don’t want to miss a whole slew of new pictures from Dancing With The Stars Week 1 & 2 from ‘behind the scenes’ taken by the make-up crew. Below are just a few of them. If you’d like to see more, be sure to visit Dancing With The Stars Make-Up at their facebook page here. Click on each picture below to see them at their largest size…