Now we are nearing the midway point of the season. For anyone that noticed my comments in previous posts, I have broken up every season in “thirds” for easier calculations. What do I mean by this? What I have been trying to do is that for the first “third” of a season, I only use the first four weeks of scores to come up with a predicted score for the first four weeks of the current season. Consequently when it reached Week Four, I’ll shift into using the middle four weeks of all previous seasons (10 week seasons that is) and use that as a basis for predictions. The idea is that using scores from later in the season (ie Week 7 thru 10) would not make sense for predict scores for the beginning of the season (ie Week 1 thru 3). In this way I had hoped that the predicted scores would come out to be closer to accurate than if I were to use scores willy-nilly from any point of any season.
Unfortunately not all seasons are the same length – like how not all casts are the same size – so I had to find some “normalization” for the length of the season. So I broke up a season into “thirds”. In a ten week season:
- “First Third” includes Weeks 1 through 4
- “Middle Third” includes Weeks 4 through 7
- “Last Third” includes Weeks 7 through 10
While in Season 1′s six-week season:
- “First Third” includes Weeks 1 and 2
- “Middle Third” includes Weeks 3 and 4
- “Last Third” includes Weeks 5 and 6
Why is there an overlap of Week 4 and 7 in the ten-week season format? I did that specifically to keep it semi-realistic of the skill level of all the celebs, and to have a decent broad-base of the “thirds” rather than a more cut-throat approach. Since this is the first season that I’m testing these particular calculations out… we’ll see my season finale scorecard fares in the off-season.
But enough with my blabbering… onward to the predicted scores!
Dance: Viennese Waltz
- Age: 22.000
- Occupation: N/A
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 21 / 10th
Comments: Oddly enough, the only Disney kid to have any trouble with the Viennese Waltz was Season 7′s Cody Linley with Edyta Śliwińska (who was subbing for the then injured Julianne Hough), but he received a 22. Season 11′s Kyle Massey and Season 12′s Chelsea Kane received a 27 and 26 respectively… so I highly doubt that Roshon is going to score lower than Cody, will he score as high as Kyle or Chelsea? It’s rather hard to say considering that Chelsie has only done a Viennese Waltz at the beginning of the season (Season 10 with Jake Pavelka for 20 and Season 11 with Michael Bolton for 16) or at the end of the season (Season 8 with Ty Murray for 25). Middle of the season will be interesting for this pairing.
- Age: 23.000
- Occupation: 26.000
- Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 9th
Comments: Being the first singer in her 60s to be on the show, there isn’t much data to work off of (how about virtually none), the closest would be Season 5′s Wayne Newton with Cheryl Burke… but they got an 18 and Gladys is nowhere near as stiff as Wayne Newton. I do think in some ways the 23 is realistic, give or take a point.