Who Will Win DWTS Season 9?
According to me. 🙂 For now. I reserve the right to adjust my predictions based on actual dance ability. My guesses are based on several factors:
- Fanbase, fanbase, fanbase
- Body
- Determination and Attitude
- Looks/Charm
When you get right down to it I think, personally, that Gilles Marini was the better dancer last season, but the tween fanbase (and the state of Iowa) were not to be denied. This is NOT to say that Shawn isn’t a fine dancer – she certainly is, and she’s cute as a bug to boot. She had all four factors in her favor, whereas Gilles wasn’t as strong in number 1. Conversely, there’s Brooke Burke – NO fanbase going in, but she had 2, 3 and 4 going for her and a tremendous natural dance ability – but she also had no one going against her that had a huge fanbase combined with ability. Then, look at Ty Murray – neither he nor Lil’ Kim had fanbases that overlapped with the “traditional” DWTS audience – meaning people who would VOTE – but both did really, really well. But, Lil Kim was the superior dancer whereas Ty became hugely popular over the course of the season because of his charming personality. I think lots of people loved Lil’ Kim too, but Ty was a charming force to be reckoned with. 😉
This season? Well, is there any way to beat an Osmond named Donny? I shudder to speak his sister’s name after that disasterous Doll Dance (and the fact that she bumped the more deserving Jennie and Derek), but Donny is arguably a better dancer – he’s been doing it since he was a little kid. And then there are those whispered rumors of him and Anna Trebunskaya and a studio. 😉
Ah, Aaron Carter. Again, a fanbase, albeit one that appears only larger than Derek Hough’s and Lacey Schwimmer’s (per twitter) by 15 percent. I don’t know if that speaks well to Derek and Lacey or poorly to Aaron. 🙂 While that may not signal a huge fanbase for a celeb, I have a feeling this guy can move and will connect with the Tween/Teen audience. That’s a big deal. I don’t know if that will be enough – Cody Linley made it to what? Fifth place? And how much of that was attributable to Julianne Hough?? So, I dunno. I’m liking him for the final four, in any case.
Mya. Lots of experience with choreography, already a good dancer. I don’t hate her for it – it simply means she can take direction. She’s somewhat tall and lean so she has a good body for it. Her partner, Dmitry Chaplin, is Emmy nominated (along with Derek Hough), but that is for SYTYCD where they have a LOT more leeway in moves and such – he’s essentially an unknown quantity on this show, thanks to Holly Madison. Decent sized fanbase for Mya, but do her fans overlap with those of Lil’Kim or DWTS?? She could easily get bumped by someone who has more fans – hard to say.
Melissa Joan Hart – five words: Two long-running TV Shows. She might not have the huge twitter following, but she’ll get the nostalgia vote. Lots of people grew up on Sabrina the Teenage Witch. I don’t think her likeability or her TV popularity will carry her to the final four without a strong dance ability – in any other season, with any other cast, maybe. Not this time.
Kelly Osbourne amuses me. 🙂 She has a tremendous following – but so did Kim Kardashian. Kelly’s really going to have to dance well to last beyond the first couple weeks, IMO. I don’t know what to make of producers pairing her with Louis. Combine that with the little factoid that he’s been choreographing for So You Think You Can Dance which starts up again in the fall and well….?
Mark Dacascos – the Iron Chef dude. I don’t know anything about his fanbase, but the guy can move. I’m predicting this guy will be the Gilles of Season 9. I don’t need to say much more than that. Just watch one of the Extra videos that I posted earlier to see what I mean.
Natalie Coughlin. Again, what more do I have to say than Olympic Gold Medalist?? If it weren’t for a guy named Michael Phelps she’d probably be on cereal boxes. Heck, maybe she is anyway!! Question is, will she be a Shawn or a Maurice?? I do believe the odds are in her favor.
As for the rest of the Cast –
I think that Tom DeLay and Macy Gray will be fighting to see who leaves first – that’s just my general impression of the bottom tier. I also think the snowboarder Louie Vito is SO unknown that he will have to be Apollo Anto Ono’s twin brother right out of the gate in order to go far. Every time I tell someone there’s a snowboarder in the cast they say “The red haired guy?!?!?” Doesn’t bode well.Â
Chuck Liddell?? Who? I’m sure he has fans, but do they watch DWTS? He will have to channel Ty Murray otherwise.
Kathy Ireland says she’s clumsy – is she being humble? I any case, models don’t ordinarily do well, and neither do women of a certain age, sad to say. Hate that.
Speaking of models, Joanna Krupa is very beautiful, driven and really wants to do well. She has Derek Hough as a partner who successfully took another model to the final and won. The first couple weeks will determine how she does in the competition. She has a hurdle or two to overcome, although I think the Superstars audience was so small that the impact may also be small. I also think she is far from alone in despising Terrell Owens. 🙂 As a relative unknown in this group of slightly better knowns she’s going to have to be good right away.
Ashley Hamiltion – total unknown. Also going to have to be good right away, although I doubt he’ll be the first to go either way.
That leaves us with Debi Mazar and Michael Irvin – either one of which could be a dark horse favorite; Michael because he’s a pro football player and they always do well and Debi because she has the build (and Maks) and I think people will like her. I know I do. 😉 She’s very striking looking in the rehearsal pictures.
My Final Four (for now):
Say it with me now – in NO particular order:
– Donny Osmond
– Natalie Coughlin
– Mark Dascascos
– Mya
Dark horses:
Aaron, Melissa, Joanna
hmm I can see Mya in the top four and Donny is a possibility. I think Aaron is a possible surprise factor…you are right he will get the younger votes…but he also has the backstreet fans on his side. Then again its really all about who watches the show. I’ll have more thoughts after I see them dance for the first time.
i agree with you , for me the final two will be Mya and Mark (Mark will be amazing in freestely)
but for me there is another thing that is missing ,the number 5.
5 – a great partner ,Shawn had all four but i wasn’t for Mark ,she wouldn’t win ,not only the freestyle was great but the dances were fun to watch (Cheryl everything was about sex ,even the freestyle and Tony is boring), the same thing with Brooke she had 2,3,4 but if she had Tony or Jonathan and even Maks she wouldn’t win, Derek great rotines carry then to the victory, and the same thing i could say about Helio and Julianne.
A great partner can make you and break you, and no matter how much some people hate the Ballas Hough domination ,they are the best ( for me Cheryl lost her mojo seasons ago).
I think Donny’s fanbase will carry him to the final four easily – unless he has two left feet, and I don’t see that happening. Aaron is certainly possible, but I’ve seen as much negative talk about him as positive (although the same can certainly be said for Donny).
Absolutely, a good pro is essential!! That’s why I have both Melissa and Joanna in the darkhorse category – because of Mark and Derek. Aaron I took in and out of my final four several times – his status really depends on how good he is relative to how good my current top four perform.
I think that Melissa has a really good chance of winning. Back in the “Sabrina” days she did a little dancing here and there…and was pretty good. And you are completely right about the nostalgia vote with her.
Don’t count Louie Vito out so soon. Like Ty Murray before them, Louie and UFC fighter Chuck Liddell cross over to a HUGE fanbase. They’re both fierce competitors. And with more interest in the upcoming 2010 Olympics in Vancouver, Louie could end up being a better draw than people think. And, as my wife said, there’s also the cute factor – Louie is just a regular cutie pie, according to her – if he lets his natural cuteness and his usual sweet nature shine through, he may bleed some of the teenybopper girls away from Aaron Carter. And average people need to remember there are OTHER snowboarders besides the awesome Shaun White…and Louie is one of the most awesome shredders around. Do I think he has a chance to take it all? Maybe – it depends on how much he can devote to getting the dances right. If he can, he is going to be a formidable foe for the likes of Dacascos and Osmond…
I really, really don’t think a woman is going to take it this year – I think the women are going to have to be REALLY good (like Brooke Burke good) to make it past Donny/Mark/Aaron. I could certainly be wrong – and I confess that part of my issue is not wanting to see Mark Ballas win two in a row and really wanting to see Kym Johnson win for a change even though that would include *Donny*. 🙂
You may be right. But the fanbase crossing over and voting is what will be key. Will they? Did Ty’s fanbase cross over and vote or did he create a new fanbase by being so darn cute? 🙂 Louie has Chelsie going for him, so that’s good, but Chuck? Anna didn’t sound that enthused and she doesn’t have a good track record on the show. I can’t wait to see. 🙂
I love kym but i dont wanna see donny winning , i wanna see Lacey winning this season , she has a great chance with Mark , and if they make to the final they can do a crazy freestyle.
Heidi, I actually addressed the fanbase factor in my first write up, which I submitted yesterday. So your questions will be answered soon, but for a short answer, Yes, Ty’s fanbase crossed over. There is NO WAY he would have made the finals (or even close to it, IMHO) without that support.
I actually started a comment on your post then decided to wait until it published. 🙂
By the same token – TY never would have gotten as far as he did on JUST the rodeo audience, not in my opinion. I’ll save the rest of my commentary for your new post. 😉
Welcome aboard. 🙂
Wow 16 is that not insane!! I hate to say it but I usually weed out the ones I don’t care for before I pick my fav. This could be interesting. I will be torn I am also a huge fan of SYTYCD? Thank goodness for TIVO I forget who Edyta has as a partner but would love to see her win this year. Or Kym is very good too.