Dancing with the Stars Season 10, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers
First things first – everyone PLEASE give to the Red Cross, if you are able. Nashville has been hit by a 1000 year flood. Hundreds (thousands?) of homes are under water, downtown landmarks are taking on water – not only will homeowners be impacted for weeks or months to come, but Nashville’s tourism industry has taken a serious hit. Locales never before flooded are under water – like the Country Music Hall of Fame, historic Opryland Hotel and the Grand Ole Opry. One of our two water plants are under water, so it’s conservation time – pray the water doesn’t reach the other plant. It’s devastating. If you want to read about it, Channels 2, 4 and 5 out of Nashville all have websites which document a lot of the damage. It’s been a very sad few days here in Nashville.
Random Musings…
The Storyboarding was unbelievable last night. Erin’s best dance?? I see they are on crack once again!! Erin was off time from Maks, they broke hold, there were gimmicks. If anyone else had danced that dance (hello, Nicole) they would have been skewered. Certainly not worthy of a 27 – too sloppy, especially when compared to Nicole’s Waltz or Evan’s Tango.
Then Chad – who I think actually did better than Erin – gets a 9 from Len? Boy, are they desperate to make this into a horserace or what? Then Nicole does a near perfect dance so she should get 10’s right, since they overscored everyone else so far? HELL NO. I suppose they will give Niecy a 10? No, but they give her a point better than Pam which is crap. But, in hindsight, how it shakes out after the group dances it’s almost like they knew what the teams would get. Hmmm…say it ain’t so! I will say that I thought Evan did a great job and deserved a 30. The only reason it pisses me off is because Len should have given Nicole a ten long before now – like for her perfect Tango. But part of the reason Evan gets a 30 is so that he can have an “amazing comeback!!!!” That said, Evan had the most crowd pleasing type of dance of the night AND the dance best suited to his abilities – the only Argentine Tango of the night. Going up against waltzes and mediocre quicksteps, of course he will shine.
Carrie Ann saying that Nicole is the best dancer ever on the show is like the kiss of death – or Carrie knows she’s not getting the votes so she thought she’d get that out there just in case.
All these other sites or people that act surprised that Evan is now up there with Nicole – wake up, people. He’s always been up there with Nicole and he’s always been destined to win because of his own talent and because of his fanbase. It amazes me that there are still people who honestly (or not so honestly) think the best dancer (Nicole) wins. Not true – the biggest fanbase wins and that is still Evan (probably). The only reason Evan was down at 21 last week was because of more judge storyboarding. His dance was worth more than a 21, easily.
The Math:
After the individual dances, the celebrities were ranked in this order:
Evan/30
Nicole /27
Erin/27
Chad/25
Niecy/25
Pam/24
Courtney and I should post a transcript of our conversation (via Twitter) during the show because I am a great prognosticator (when it comes to the judges, anyway) and she’s not too shabby herself. 🙂 It was SO easy to predict what the judges were going to do. I even said, “If Team Madonna gets a 24, that will put Evan/Nicole in a tie for first place” – which is exactly what they want and exactly what happened. It also knocked Erin/Maks down a couple pegs and Niecy into last place where they want her.
The Team Dance Scores
Team Gaga/27
Team Madonna/24
Add the two scores together for each celeb, then add all the scores together to get the total judges points awarded (311). Then you divide a celebs score by the total points awarded to get their judges percentage:
Evan/17.36
Nicole/17.36
Chad/16.72
Pam/16.4
Erin/16.4
Niecy/15.76
It’s weeks like this where the results show can be very interesting, where someone popular could go home if their fans assume they are safe. There is just a tiny difference between Evan/Nicole and Niecy – not many more votes for Nicole to go home instead of one of the lower scorers. Or Erin to get bumped. Do I think that will happen this week? Not really, but you never know. How did the fans of those already booted vote? Did they go for Niecy? Pam? If they do in large numbers –well, no one is safe.
For Niecy to stay and for someone else to go, she needs to get approximately 6,450 votes more than either Pam or Erin per 1 million votes cast. That is not very many, depending on how many people actually vote. If only 500k vote every week, that number shrinks to 3,225. I will say right now that I don’t think Erin is going anywhere. Pam on the other hand, is in danger. This is a toss-up, really, because neither woman danced particularly well last night. But where are Jake’s fans, Aiden’s fans and the others likely to put their votes (if they still vote)?? Probably NOT to Pam.
What about the potential for a “shocking” (not really) elimination? Evan and Nicole are tied for first place – what would it take for either one of them to be eliminated? Well, ALL the people below them would have to get more votes, obviously, which adds up to:
Niecy – 16,100 votes per 1 million
Pam – 9,700 votes per 1 million
Erin – 9,700 votes per 1 million
Chad – 6,430 votes per 1 million
So, if 1 million people vote, the above numbers represent how many MORE votes each contestant has to get than either Nicole or Evan for Nicole or Evan to be eliminated. Now, do you think this is possible? Well, I refuse to believe that Evan won’t win, but I think it could happen to Nicole. Probably not this week, but next week? Nicole/Derek fans better be stepping it up.
I’m sad to say that I think Pam will be leaving us tonight and that Niecy lives to dance another day. Sorry Courtney. But I would not be surprised if anyone left (other than Evan), with the scores as tight as they are.
Prayers headed your way, sistah – it’s a nightmare there right now, I’m sure. Stay strong and I’ll send all the positive vibes I have in me! 🙂
Praise Heidi! For a second there I thought I was going blind – no one else seemed to notice the fundamental flaws in Erin’s quickstep. The begin in hold, which they break as soon as the music starts – WTF? And then straight off the bat – gimmick. Maks is once again removing clothes – albeit clumsily & frantically – and I still don’t know how that fit, chorographically, into the routine. I don’t feel like it complemented to music or added any sort value to the dance. Immediately after – Erin misses a step in their open work (while the camera is on her, and her alone) and has to look at Maks to regain her timing. Now back in sync, they get in hold. Everything looks good for a few chasse runs and a throwaway oversway – and then then Erin gets off time again during the promenade runs, and forgets to kick forward in sync with Maks. Manages to get back on time, but frame gets a little wobbly. By time they reach their 2nd section of bounces, you could drive a boat show between their bodies. And now they’re onto their open work at the end, and running up the stairs for no apparent reason. Call me crazy, but this routine was littered with mistakes, and head-scratching choreographic choices. I don’t think it deserved 27 – more like 25, tops.
And don’t even get me started on Chad – I’ve seen 3-year-olds do better VW’s (seriously).
And I’m starting to worry about Pam as well – I think I’m just trying to harnass the power of positive thinking by visualizing Niecy & Louis in the red and being told by Tom “On this 7th week of competition, the couple with the lowest combined score who will be leaving us tonight IS…………..*slow & deliberate* Niecy & Louis.” Just sucks that there are clearly worse dancers than her that will likely get a free pass this week. Boooooo.
So should I be flattered that my dancing by the numbers idea is now being ripped off by other bloggers? 🙂
WTF?! Who’s doing it???
DWTS Doodles is doing it – I would give a link but I’m feeling small right now. 🙂
Man glad to see I am not alone in not loving Erin’s quickstep. Wasted too much time with gimmicks at the start and end. Maks does this every season. Why he doesn’t get called out for this more….
Has the media forgotten Evan was on top of the leaderboard for weeks. The show played their hand perfectly last week to this week.
Can we stop the dancer is a ringer is unfair. The biggest ringers on this show are first athletes. How many seasons of DWTS have they won? Olympians in particular. Since at this point even getting perfect scores mean nothing, fan base is the other thing. That is the most unfair so if you look at it that way, Evan’s participation is unfair to all the celebs. But anyone is open to participate.
[…] Dancing with the Stars Season 10, Week 7 – Dancing by the Numbers […]
I think maybe talking about pure dancing, Nicole is easily the best. Obviously when your talking about fanbase only Evan is easily the best. They are two different aspects of a dancing show! I still think the little ladies that watch the show might not want Nicole to win it…i think Evan has the better chance but you never know! An injury or someone getting better and better (Erin) could steal the show. The best dancer rarely wins but that doesn’t mean their not the ringer or whatever you call it. Sorry John, know you hate that….i still like her though! BTW i loved Erins quickstep…there is something so fun about her dances! JMO
What’s so fun about Erin’s dances is how many steps she actually misses. 🙂 That quickstep was a disaster. Evan is going to win the show, probably easily. Not only is he an athlete, but an Olympic Gold medalist in a very popular sport. I think Erin MIGHT take third place. Nicole will either be a shocking elimination (or Erin will be) or she will be in second place. Erin is not getting better and better – that’s the judges talking and they are full of crap. I’m thinking they overscored her because they knew she wasn’t getting the votes. Crazy? Maybe. But there’s little other explanation for it.
Um I really think Erins last two dances were two of her very best, maybe along with the 3rd one…can’t remember the name of the dance. I do think she is improving and she’s exciting to watch for me atleast. Nobody is perfect, except maybe Nicole but that sometimes gets boring. I almost wish Nicole wasn’t so perfect so i had more to root for, i still love her i just can’t really vote for that. I do think its scary that Chad seems so popular…hes a nice man but he barely moves around Cheryl while she dances. I swear he wanted to be on this show to get a date. I like that Erin and Niecy lighten the mood of the show, they are funny and so proud to e themselves! Its refreshing to me atleast. I’m sure some people hate Erin and maybe Niecy to, i’m just happy to have them for as long as they last. I think Erin can get into the top 3…she is the third best dancer but it scares me that Pam went before Chad and my beloved Niecy…she was better then those two and i liked her personality when she wasn’t tryin to be all sex kitten…i think she was just so used to be the sexy one she couldn’t get over that character. That probably rubbed the gals the wrong way (the viewers)…gawd just when i’m starting to love Erin she might be gone next :(.