DWTS 10: Final Dance Predictions

So here we are… the Finals. The last week of Dancing with the Stars for the season until the Fall Season starts and the cycle begins again.

Normally I would do a breakdown of dances and predict a score… since most of the dances are rehashes of what they have done previously I will only provide the score they have achieved when they did the dance the first time around:

Erin Andrews / Maksim Chmerkovskiy
Monday Night:
Judges Choice: Samba – Week 6: 25/30
Freestyle
– Season 4 (w/ Laila Ali): 26/30
– Season 5 (w/ Melanie Brown): 27/30

Tuesday Night:
Argentine Tango – Week 8: 28/30
Viennese Waltz(?) – Week 9: 27/30

Nicole Scherzinger / Derek Hough
Monday Night:
Judges Choice: Rumba – Week 4: 25/30
Freestyle
– Season 7 (w/ Brooke Burke): 30/30

Tuesday Night:
Argentine Tango – Week 9: 30/30
Jive – Week 2: 28/30

Evan Lysacek / Anna Trebunskaya
Monday Night:
Judges Choice: Viennese Waltz – Week 1: 23/30
Freestyle
– Season 2 (w/ Jerry Rice): 27/30

Tuesday Night:
Argentine Tango – Week 7: 30/30
Quickstep – Week 3: 26/30

A Judges Choice is a dance that a couple has already done but the judges believe they didn’t do to their full potential. Each finalist gets new music and a new routine in the hope that they would score better the second time around.

The following is the original score and the Judges’ Choice score as shown on Seasons 4 and 5

Season 4:
Laila Ali / Maksim Chmerkovskiy – Paso Doble
– Week 4: 21/30
– Finals: 29/30
Apolo Anton Ohno / Julianne Hough – Rumba
– Week 6: 28/30
– Finals: 28/30
Joey Fatone / Kym Johnson – ChaCha
– Week 1: 24/30
– Finals: 26/30

Season 5:
Marie Osmond / Jonathan Roberts – Samba
– Week 5: 21/30
– Finals: 24/30
Melanie Brown / Maksim Chmerkovskiy – ChaCha
– Week 1: 24/30
– Finals: 28/30
Helio Castroneves / Julianne Hough – Jive
– Week 3: 24/30
– Finals: 25/30

Just looking at the above, no one got any lower than a 24 (Marie osmond) in their Judges Choice. The chances that anyone would go down in score is relatively low. So for me, based on point spreads and looking at the original scores I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if everyone hits no lower than a 27.

Monday Night’s Judges Choice
– Erin/Maksim: 27/30
– Nicole/Derek: 29/30
– Evan/Anna: 30/30

Everyone knows that Derek comes out with incredible choreography… as his only Freestyle shows. Maksim’s choreography tends to lack on average, as well as Anna, but considering that some of her choreography with Evan seems to be getting better…

Monday Night’s Freestyle
– Erin/Maksim: 27/30
– Nicole/Derek: 30/30
– Evan/Anna: 29/30

On Tuesday Evening, finalist would dance their Favorite Routine of the season for scores… and considering that two of the finalists got 30s the first time around, I would believe that all three would get 30s this second time around.

Tuesday Night’s Celebs Favorite Routine: Argentine Tango
– Erin/Maksim: 30/30
– Nicole/Derek: 30/30
– Evan/Anna: 30/30

As for the very last dance, dependent on who the final two would be… if it is going to be a Dance-Off, I believe the placement would be the following:

Tuesday Night’s Dance Off
Erin/Maksim: 3rd
Evan/Anna: 2nd
Nicole/Derek: 1st

Now the order of the above placement would move up depending on who gets eliminated first (if Nicole then Evan gets 1st and Erin 2nd, or if Evan is eliminated then erin gets 2nd).

In the end however, the scores would ultimately be so close that this final, like all finals before it, would largely be defined by viewer votes.

But just for the hell of it, an Olympian’s track record has been stronger than that of a Band Member (NSync, 98Degrees, Spice Girls, etc) and television personalities on average don’t usually do as well… so I’m going to have to say that the final placement would be:

Final Placement
Erin/Maksim: 3rd
Nicole/Derek: 2nd
Evan/Anna: 1st

Thank you for staying with me during theis long winded predictions… so let’s sit back and enjoy the show!