DWTS Season 10, THE FINALE – Dancing by the numbers
Random Musings
Oh dear, just as I was afraid – too many high expectations which lead to disappointment on many fronts. I personally wasn’t too disappointed, mainly because my boy Derek retains his standing as King of Choreography, win or lose. 😉
At the risk of sounding biased – and acknowledging that I said in advance this would happen so I shouldn’t be surprised – the underscoring of both Nicole and Evan (and the extreme overscoring of Erin) was ridiculous. There is no way in hell that Erin deserved a 29 for her Samba, while Evan and Nicole both get lower scores. Maks has this tendency to waste too much time at the beginning and ending of the dances and neither dance was particularly “clean”. Nicole’s rumba was amazing – the core strength at the end when she wraps herself around Derek deserved a 10 on all on its own (and I wonder how they discovered that move 😉 ) – and Carrie Ann’s lift rule is ridiculous at that point in the dance. Pretty sure she let Louis and Maks BOTH get away with something similar last season, in addition to letting Mark get away with it at least twice, once this season. I believe her words were “it was at the end and it fit so beautifully” when he did it with Shawn. I don’t have a problem with the rule in general – but they don’t actually apply that one evenly. No wonder Derek was up in arms. That said – Maks should take a cue from Derek. Protest, then apologize and take responsibility. Very mature, Derek. Or canny. Or both. 🙂
I was tempted to save this comment for the Cheesecake awards, but I can’t wait – did you all see the look on Len’s face while Carrie Ann was talking about lifts?? LOL – it was freakin’ hilarious. He was looking at her like she had three heads. Of course, Len was on crack too, but I was glad to see he agreed that the dance was over when the lift happened and said so. His face was priceless though.
LOL – just saw Maks claim on Twitter that you know you’ve been a part of something special when you’re part of the most talked about Freestyle of the season. Um, Maks, you do realize that it’s not all GOOD, right?? LOL – is this like the Supreme Court Justice thing?
Freestyles? Derek and Nicole came out on top –but I have to say that, while I didn’t care overly much for Evan’s, a 24 was ridiculously low. The judges are trying to make this into a horse race and I predict that by the end of dance three it will be a three way tie. Ridiculous. Who are they trying to kid, here? Are they consciously storyboarding the finale or is it an unconscious thing? Whatever, it worked – lots of media asking the question “Can Erin Win?” They got what they wanted, but at their own expense (again). I saw a comment on Twitter that Erin technically works for ABC as an ESPN Reporter – true? I also saw a reference to Derek’s freestyle choreography being “ripped off” Mark’s – I suggest these people go back and watch Mark’s again both with Kristi and Shawn (like the cross promo, John? 🙂 ). Note where Mark uses a Derek/Julianne move at the beginning of his dance with Shawn. The only similarities are Derek’s pants and the energy level. Kristy does hip hop/mambo routine, while Shawn does Jaberwockies/gymnastics, while Nicole does a range of quickstep/jive/lindy hop/salsa.
You know, I say these things every season and yet I continue to be surprised and annoyed by it. I must be a dork. 🙂 I also, every season, try to figure out if the Judges know the vote tally going into the finale or if that is kept secret from them. It would explain a lot. Imagine this headline “Lowest Scored Dancer Going into the Final Night WINS” – meaning Evan. Huge press, the media idiots completely buying into the storyline. Even better “The Two BEST Dancers LOSE DWTS!!!” – more huge headlines and a smidge of credibility, erasing the stain of “ringer” and “Olympians always win”. Since I consider the second one fairly unlikely, I almost expect to see Evan scored harshly again tonight, so they get their big story when he wins. Only thing is, you can’t really know how the votes are going. Plus, they would have to be extraordinarily mean to overcome the relatively minor difference in scores from last night.
The Math
It’s almost pointless to actually do that math, seeing as how the scores are so close and will change before they announce third place and the winner. But, anyway:
Dancer/Total Score
Nicole/55
Erin/55
Evan/52
When you add up the total points awarded and divide into the individual dancers total score, their percentages are as follows:
Nicole/33.95
Erin/33.95
Evan/32.10
If there were no other dances to be scored, this would mean that Evan only needs 18,501 more votes than both Erin and Nicole per 1 million votes cast in order to win. Piece. Of. Cake. Of course, there’s a rub. Evan and Erin both have celebrities pimping votes for them. Nicole is not as well placed as those two. But do you vote for whoever your favorite celeb tells you to vote for? I sure hope most people don’t – that’s so sheep-y. 🙂 On the other hand, all three fan groups were voting maniacs last night. Judging by my tweetdeck only (and this is not the least bit scientific, only annecdotal), Nicole and Erin have the edge in power voters. Thanks to crazy ass scoring by the judges, this could turn into a horse race – but I still think it’s a race between Evan and Nicole. I could be wrong. Dial Idol has Erin in last place and they are calling her third – but you know that I don’t think that site works for DWTS. They said she was going home last week. Still, two weeks in a row in last place – a certain degree of repetition in even the most flawed polling has to make one wonder.
But that’s all that – there IS still one more dance before third place is decided. All three dancers chose Argentine Tango, AND if they do it like they’ve done it in some years past, they completely reverse the dance order. If they do that, Nicole will be first and Erin will be last, with Evan still in the middle. I don’t think this benefits Erin – if they actually judge the dances side by side, Erin’s has the lowest degree of difficulty. If all the dances are good, with no obvious flaws, and Erin scores even with the other two, I call foul. But that’s probably what they will do. 🙂
So, here’s my guess. I predict that the last dance will either be scored such that there is a three way tie OR scored such that nothing changes in terms of difference between the dancers. I’m going to stick with my original prediction of Evan as the winner with Nicole a close second and Erin in third place. I hope I’m wrong – I think Nicole deserves the mirrorball.
What do you guys think? Do you think they (the judges) know that that 3 points ain’t no big thing for an Olympian and know they can score him lower and get a good story? Or do you think they are really punishing him for a poor dance? Are they storyboarding? Or wussing out?
I think you’re a silly, biased little Derek fangirl.
I think Evan deserves it. I didn’t get to see most of last night because my cable went out (damn TimeWarner) but I watched Evan’s freestyle on his facebook page. It wasn’t bad per se, it just wasn’t the freestyle we’ve come to expect.
Erin was majorly over scored on her Samba and Evan was underscored.
As for The whole Derek look alike freestyle… A lot of the reason those three look a like in choreographing is because they lived, danced, and trained together for so long. It’s understandable.
Don’t get me wrong, Katrina, I won’t be the least bit upset if Evan wins, but I have to root for Derek because I’m a “silly, biased little Derek fangirl”. 🙂
Gee, Donna you’re really sharp!! Thanks for your insightful contribution. Let me guess – silly biased little Maks fangirl?? 🙂
Like Heidi said, “no way in hell did Erin deserve a 29 if Evan and Nicole both got 28.” Erin’s samba was lots of fun and I loved it, but she seemed a tad lanky/stiff in a spot or two, I would’ve said 27. Evan was scored correctly mostly, it was beautiful, but one moment out of hold he looked funky on his legs. Nicole’s rumba was gorgeous and wonderful, and carrie ann’s lift rule was bullcrap. While erin’s freestyle was gorgeous to watch, it had too much flopping around on the bed and not enough actual dancing in comparison with the other two. Evan’s freestyle was fun to watch, but could’ve been more, still deserved more than 24. Nicole’s was the best, derek produced an excellent freestyle and Nicole did it wonderfully, too bad there was a lift stumble. Anyone that says derek ripped off mark is jealous, stupid, and biased, plain and simple. Overall, I think Nicole should win, but I wouldn’t be too upset if Evan won, but his freestyle may have cost him like many others have before. If Erin wins….let’s just hope she doesnt. I like her, she’s a good dancer, but she’s not as good as the other two.
I like Tony , but I didn’t vote for Maks. I voted for Derek. Tony is stupid for supporting Maks. Maks through him under the bus when Tony had Melissa. On the other hand, I think Tony likes Erin to win more than Maks. I think he really likes her. Hee.
Donna – you sure are a one-trick pony. I feel like I could create mad libs out of your comments: [proper noun], I think you are such a [adjective][noun] and this site is [adjective]. Instead of pointing the finger (repetitively), why don’t you actually tell us WHY you feel the way you do, or why you think you’re right? 🙂
If anyone is going to accuse Derek of ripping off Mark and/or Julianne’s freestyles, then someone should call Maks & Erin out for copying 2 routines from SYTYCD – as I mentioned in my other post, Mandy Moore had already done a contemporary routine to “Alone” for Will & Jessica in season 4 of that show (and it was much better choreographed), and Mia Michaels did a routine for Twitch & Kherington in that same season that centered around a bed (OH-EM-GEE! Freaky coincidence!). Don’t believe me? Go watch both of those routines on youtube (maybe if Marianya isn’t too busy she can post links to them – girl, you rock at locating stuff on youtube! :-D) – I swear Erin’s freestyle was basically a hybrid of those two routines. Again, I’m not sure whether to blame Mandy for rehashing old material and maybe “borrowing” a bit from Mia, or Erin for borrowing the concept – but someone did a little borrowing, whether any of them want to admit it. Those routines were done 2 years ago and were quite popular – I sincerely doubt that is was just an innocent coincidence that the freestyle was so similar to it.
I was watching the Nicole dances on youtube (it’s funny that those are the first performances online) and when I watched the freestyle, I almost freaked out. Because it was so perfect up to that point. I feel bad, but it made me vote 10 times harder. It was funny to see HoughZinger talk to Niecy about that. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iM0iTNZA2t0)
I think (like probably everyone) that Erin is WAY overscored and Evan kinda underscored. Let’s see what they will do tonight.
well to start i used to like Tony but now i think he’s an ass (sorry for the cursing, i’ll do a bit coz i’m pissed by the whole thing!!!) like Jennifer pointed he’s supporting Maks while he was angry about Mellisa’s advantage with her ballet training ! Tony well u deserve what happened to u with Kate and i hope u only get suckers as parteners!!!!!!!!!
the only similarity that i found btw Derek’s an Marks freestyle was the costumes other than THE BOY IS A GENIUS and so Proud of him!!!
i don’t think the judges were harsh on Evan on the walz the scoring was ok, but on the freestyle if u only see the dance i think it deserved at least a couple of 9 but i have to say that i didn’t like his attitude with ana, he’s a hungry for the win that he made his partner question her self and cry if he trusted her he might done better, on the other hand i hated Erin and Maks both dances! she sucked yeah the samba was good not great with the whole missing around, and Len is a Creep!!! the freestyle, i loved the idea of bringing comtemporary, but the execution was just a complete Messs! i love Mandy Moore but recreating a choreography for unprofessionels (Erin and Maks) from a hit dance that she has done on SYTYCD was a huge mistake, i hated the whole thing with the bed, they weren’t dancing it was like Monkeys Festival!!! and Maks by the way if was him i wouldn’t be so proud to be part of the most talked about dance of the season ( honey the talking is about suckness! hein get a brain!!)
Nicooooooooole unbelievable rumba i think it was the best rumba i’ve seen, the lift rule has to be reconsidered coz it a phenomenal dance, and the freestyle, Derek is the King of the dance flooor!
i have to say that tonight it’ll be anyone’s game, so all i needed is Derek getting to the finale and giving us all this amazing routine with a great and phenomal partner who trusted him 100% through the entire season and never question him, and she was right coz they both didn’t disapoint, i’m extremly proud of them who ever wins it!! D and Nic the best for me! 🙂
Thx John, Heidi, and Courtney for the amazing coverage of this season like this was the best season for me, u also did a fantastic job giving us this plate form to talk about our beloved show! (keep the cheesecake award its hilirious!! lol!!)
All I’m going to say is after seeing Derek working his butt off producing the best dances of his DWTS career, it will be such a let down if they don’t win (I’ll admit I’ve been voting and routing for D & N the entire season but have felt in my heart that Evan would take it all along, until his freestyle last night…). I’d be SO ashamed and let down with the voting public IF they let Nicole walk away as second or third after seeing these amazing dances for the past 10 weeks with the level of performance and difficulty she has produced for us week after week and basically telling her “it wasn’t good enough.” I’m hoping everyone will finally vote the best dancer as the winner as they did in season 6.
Evan’s freestyle was a mess in my opinion, he had enthusiasm but it just didn’t impact me in any way. It’s how I felt after Mya and Dmitry last season, hoped for so much and then disappointed with the result. Maks and Erin…weird…I don’t know what he was thinking? The flinging her across the bed those 2 times just left me in a state of confusion! When I want to see lyrical, I’ll tune into SYTYCD, I love ballroom and that’s what I want to see on DWTS!!!
I think the dances all peaked last week and I am looking forward to seeing tonight’s Argentine’s back-to-back. I’m hoping the judges won’t wimp out and give everyone a 10, deserving or not, since they don’t want to take any of the fall for the outcomes. All in all, a great season, I think the producers have a lot to live up to with casting next season…do I hear “All Stars” maybe?!!!!
Derek rumba move is used by Ana and Pasha,
http://www.cbc.ca/gfx/images/arts/photos/2010/02/02/burn-the-floor.jpg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YPey0eZubrs
and Carrie an gave Shawn a 9 for the dance with the lift in the end,so it doesn’t make any difference
and the move from Shawn and Mark freestyle was not invented by Julianne or Derek, Julianne actually did that with Helio back in season 5 on their freestyle,
and i still think that nicole and derek freesytle remind me of Shawn/Kristi + Brooke’s, the quickstep thing was just like Brookes freestyle, Derek is the best on the show and his dances are amazing but this freestyle was not his best work at all, but the rumba was great.
this is my opnion
I’m with you Jennifer. I enjoyed Derek’s freestyle, but it wasn’t all that. It did remind me a bit of the Shawn/Kristi one. Good point.
Carrie Ann was definitely on crack for that being a lift. Whatever!!
I loved that Maks did a Mandy Moore routine. I’m still hoping for a DWTS Contemporary. I’m going to do a post on it.
John i always wanted a contemporary freestyle but maks and erin didn’t have the skills to pull that off.that was messy, i did liked the last lift that they did, Erin is way too tall for contemporary and like Maks said he is only trained in ballroom,this is way the suck so hard in freestyle, their freestyle would have worked great for anna and evan.
After last night I really have to think that the producers were trying to set up a story with the judges scores. I think many people have been assuming that Erin would definitely be in third place, and that it would be really close between Evan and Nicole because that seems obvious. Maybe they wanted to shake things up and create suspense so people tune into the results show if they think there might be an upset. I think the Evan fans will rally because he was underscored, and the Nicole fans will rally because they worry that her slip up in the freestyle will cost her the title. Erin fans probably won’t rally any more than normal, and any of the voters who don’t have one specific favorite will probably vote for Evan because they feel bad, or Nicole because she was the best of the night. I still think that in the end it’s going to be really close between Nicole and Evan. And overall I thought it was a pretty good show, aside from the judge’s scores. It many not have been as fantastic as I had hoped, but in my opinion, it was still the best finale of all the seasons. So much better than last season! 🙂
If Maxism doesn’t win with ERIN then I will know that it is fixed. He is the sexist man on the show. He has charisma,the body, the height the bard the teeth . SEXY SEXY. I hope they win.