DWTS Season 11 – Who’s Gonna Win?
Okay, so all this discussion of who’s going to go first, ringers, who’s going to win and everything else, I’ve decided to go out on a limb once again and make a prediction. I normally SUCK at this – mainly because I never believe that who I want to win, will actually win. 🙂 Ask Courtney – she will tell you that I never predicted that Nicole would actually win. I don’t think I even predicted it when she was several points up on Evan.
Now, granted, it’s really hard to make a prediction before we’ve even seen anyone dance – people you think are going to be good (and whose pro claims the ARE good) sometimes just aren’t. Plus, you can over estimate, or underestimate, someone’s fanbase. It’s hard – but I’m going to give it a try. Below I’ve listed the pairing and my rationale of why they’ll be eliminated, starting with the first to leave.
12th Place – Kyle Massey/Lacey Schwimmer
Sorry, Kyle. You’re a young guy with a fanbase that likely doesn’t vote AND you’re also the only person in this cast that had most people going “Who???”
11th Place – Mike Sorrentino/Karina Smirnoff
The Situation, as he is known in MTV circles, will have a much abbreviated rehearsal time compared to everyone else and, like Kyle, I wonder if the voting audience will know who he is. Unless he kills it and turns out to be totally charming as opposed to annoying, he’ll be an early exit. He does have a huge following though, so maybe they’ll turn out and vote.
10th Place – Bristol Palin/Mark Ballas
I think Bristol will stick as longer than the two lesser know people, but I don’t think she’s going to be a great dancer and the Alaska vote can only carry you so far. I’m really not sure, though – if she’s even a little bit good and a sympathetic character, she could stick around to the detriment of better dancers.
9th Place – Margaret Cho/Louis Van Amstel
Boy, this is tough. Margaret is only here because everyone left is either a pop culture icon or a sports hero AND pop culture icon.
The top 8 – I confess, I moved them around so many times – I have no clue what will happen.
8th Place – Florence Henderson/Corky Ballas
I switched Florence and Kurt’s places a few times – Hey, she’s Mrs.Brady!! Not to mention that I believe she’s a long time Broadway performer. Yeah, she’s older – but so is DWTS’ audience.
7th Place – Kurt Warner/Anna Trebunskaya
Yeah, he’s a football player, but he’s up against people likely to be better dancers AND people who are bigger names. I like Kurt – think he’s hot. But he’s not Peyton Manning. 😉
6th Place – Audrina Patridge/Tony Dovolani
It’s entirely possible that Audrina is either way too high or way too low. She’s an unknown quantity. That said, she is a model and she not in Brooke Burke’s season. If she had Derek, we’d be having a different discussion right now.
5th Place – Michael Bolton/Chelsie Hightower
It’s likely that you all think I’m crazy to put Michael this high. But let’s discuss his audience – and he is on tour right now. Yes, that will impact his rehearsal time – but this guy has an audience similar to Donny Osmond’s in age (and in DWTS likely viewers), but maybe a bit smaller. Hard to say. I think he’ll really have to suck to drop out of the top 6.
4th Place – Rick Fox/Cheryl Burke
I confess that I’m guessing Rick is in this spot largely due to Cheryl’s success on the show. I have no idea how he’ll really do – he could trade places with Kurt, or he could trade places with The Hoff. Who the heck knows? Athletes tend to do well on the show, but what happens when there are two from major sports going up against all these likely very popular people?
3rd Place – Jennifer Grey/Derek Hough
Another tough call. If she hadn’t just had her spine fused and she wasn’t 50 – and the competition was less fierce – I’d give her the win. At least partly because she has the strongest male pro of the bunch. 🙂 Yeah, I know, I have other people older than her (the Hoff among others) near the top – but Jennifer has health issues working against her. Of course, Derek goes a long way to balance this out, but will it be enough? Who knows. Too many factors at work here.
2nd Place – David Hasselhoff/Kym Johnson
This guy is in 2nd place in my rankings because he has NO FEAR. He’s not afraid to make an ass of himself, he’s as out there as Donny Osmond, and I think he probably has rhythm. The problem is, he could easily be tremendously annoying, where Donny was annoying but had a massive fanbase. I confess, I could be totally off base on this one. He could get edged out by any of the top 6.
The Winner – Brandy/Maksim Chmerkovskiy
Brandy’s win hinges entirely on living up to a precedent that she might not be capable of living up to – pop stars can dance whether they are ringers or not. It doesn’t appear that Brandy is a ringer – and neither is she a sure thing. ANYONE that I’ve put in the top 5 or 6 could cause her to be the next Sabrina Bryan. This is one pop star whose win will depend almost entirely on Maks choreographing some great stuff and the people in lower positions not dancing better than her. AND being likeable will count more than EVER. Why? I don’t think she has a voting fanbase at this moment in time. Mya, Lil’ Kim, Sabrina, and Mel B are all examples of pop stars who either got beat by lesser dancer or went home before their time. Their fans were either not regular viewers of the show or not inclined to vote, or both.
So, what do you all think??
I think Brandy & Maksim will win too! (: Maks said she’s a fast learner & she has somewhat of a dance background. It hip hop but hey…. look at Nicole! (: <3
Of course you would have had a different conversation if Audrina had Derek.
I would put Audrina before Michael Bolton for sure. Tony has had a better outcome than 6th place with people like Susan Lucci and Jane Seymour. If Audrina can dance, She’ll go at least top 4.
I doubt Jeniffer Grey will be that high. She can’t physically compete with Brandy and Audrina when it come to things like 2 dances and dance marathon. I’ll give 5 – 6th place.
My Final 4 are:
Brandy, Audrina, David, The Situation.
I think if Derek is in the finals with Jennifer, they’ll win, even if it is just because of the freestyle. It wouldn’t be the first older person to win…Look at Donny. 😉
I honestly think Jennifer could win this. I didn’t think that when I first heard they were together, but she seems to be working hard. And she seems very funny and likeable. Not everyone who watches the show watches for a specific person. There’s going to be people who watch and pick their favorites as they go, and it seems like she’d be able to grab a few fans. But if not her I think it’d be Brandy. I also have to say, I really think Kyle will do better than that. I’m thinking he might be the next Cody Linley. Lacey (like Julianne) is young, beautiful, fun, and creative. Kyle funny and full of energy (like Cody) I believe they could grab some fans by their humor and Kyle’s good personality. (Lacey’s isn’t always great, I know, but I do usually really like her. I loved her with Lance. I wish they would have gotten 2nd.) I’m not predicting them to win at all, but I think they could get farther than last place.
The problem with pointing out positive attributes in ONE couple is that it neglects the positive attributes of other people. I tried to look at them as a group and divide them up. I could be way off base – we’ll see.
i’m personnaly not sure about Brandy winning, i don’t know there is something about that tells me that she won’t be as good as the other pop stars that had been on the show (like Mya, Nicole, Mel B..) and plus Maks sucks when it comes to free style so really doubt that he would take the mirrorball trophy even if he makes it to the finals!
the Hoff is my biggest concern she seems just full out ready to take that dancefloor!! i expect a loot from him!
Jennifier is just a cuuteee she’s hilarious and seems fun to watch plus i’m a huge fan of Dirty Dancing so she is the one i’ll call favorite, but still don’t know about her ability to compete and to work under pressure (espcially physical pressure), i think we’ll have better view on the second week of competition, coz for the first one they’ll have enough time to rehears for it! soo let’s wait and seee!
Can’t wait for the season premiere!!
I really could do without seeing David Hasselhoff for the entire season…sorry Kym. If I thought The Donny Osmond Season (which I will now start to refer to it as such instead of season 9) was bad, this would be so much worse! If it were a true prediction that is. I’d much rather see Michael Bolton in one of those top spots!
Hey Amy, believe me – I don’t want him there either. 🙂 I’ve just seen him charm the paparazzi over the last couple days and he’s now got lots of people calling him a front runner. I desperately hope I’m wrong on that one.
Gosh, this is hard!! Everyone has their equal positive and negatives working for and against them. But, I think the top 5 are going to be Rick, Jennifer, Brandy, David, and Audrina. I think Kyle, Bristol, and Michael Bolton will be out of it early. That leaves Florence, Margaret, The Situation, and Kurt placing in the middle somewhere. I have this feeling Rick and Cheryl are going to take it all. But, personally, I’ll be rooting and hoping for Maks and Brandy to take first and Derek and Jennifer to take second. Audrina third. Now watch…as soon as the show starts up, my list will totally change and that’s ok. The things I always favor and look for in each dance is beauty, a deep compassion, a connection, and creative choreography. Jumps and Tricks just don’t do it for me. For instance, my all time fave couple so far from all the Seasons is Joanna and Derek because they had these three things in spades. Maks and Erin are my second favorite.
Okay. I guess you’re right, and that makes sense. But still, I personally would like to see them go farther than many of the other celebrity. I have a deep hate for Jersey Shore, so when I think of The Situation I think of a good-looking, cocky, jerk. But he could surprise me and turn out to be a nice guy and a hard worker. The Hoff is also someone I’d like to see leave early. I was hoping for Bristol to leave first, but I do like Mark and they seem to be having fun. And her interviews are really showing her to be shy and sweet. I don’t know, I just feel bad wishing her bad luck. Lol. But she could turn out to be a brat that deserves to go home. Hmm. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see. 14 days!! 😀
I just don’t know. Based on personality, I’d go with Jennifer and Derek, Rick and Cheryl and Brandy and Maks as final three. Rick is pretty darn pumped about this dancing thing on his twitter, which makes me think he’s ready to do it. He already knows his weaknesses, and is tweeting about remembering what to do. If nothing else that’s a great attitude.
Jennifer seems delightful as well. Ascetically, she’s a friggin inspiration to 50 year olds everywhere.
Forgive me if this was already posted, but here’s Patrick Swazye talking about Jennifer Grey…a natural dancer, but obviously not a trained one.
I hope he isn’t a front runner either, I doubt that he is, mostly I just see people bashing him.
But on a positive note, I do like most of these predictions, except the Hasselhoff and Jennifer placements, and of course I want to see Michael in the finals (I love Chelsie, I want to see her earn her way there with him).
Heidi, I think your predictions are the match of any. I think you have the top three right. Musicality is important and Brandi should have this. She’s also a lot younger than her closest rivals and as the season goes on, it helps. Jennifer and The Hoff are in the right demographic though, and their partners are far better choreographers and tacticians than Maks (sorry, LOVE Maks but it’s true).
As for some of the others – The Situation COULD be a surprise like Aaron Carter. Remember his bad attitude and poor effort at the start of his season… and then a light bulb came on and he went for it. That could happen with Mike Sorrentino. Or not, ha! Rick Fox and Kurt Warner could also follow the example of Jason Taylor. Their partners could make or break them if they click. And although she’s older, Flo Henderson is NO Cloris Leachman. Have you checked out those legs? You go girl!
My thoughts:
Kurt has the Team Evanna contingent behind him in addition to his own fans. Evan’s fans really like Anna and Jonathan too. I also think he may tug at the heartstrings because of the 7 kids so I’m not counting him out so soon until I see him dance a couple of weeks.
Rick has been asking for former contestants for advice via twitter. He already seems to be very competitive. I do think he’ll be near the top but not sure where.
Also, don’t count out Jennifer as winner. I doubt she’d be doing the show if she were not fully recovered–no way the doctor would have given clearance for her to rehearse so many hours a day. I also think she has the fanbase working in her favor and we know ABC will do something to tie in the movie so that may help her even more.
Agree with Heidi on the bottom 4 just may be a different order–I could see Margaret going first.
The only one of your preditions I disagree with is CORY you might be surprized at how many adults watch his show and LACEY My goodness shes from SYTYCD and a LOT of people are in her fan base better redo your numbers JUST SAYING.Also he is young and in Dance I think THATS A POSITIVE.
I only like Audrina and The Situation. Brandy should be good too.
Kurt should be a lot higher. Even if he cannot dance, there are no Evans or Nicoles this season. Kurt can make it far based on his unassuming personality and people who love his Cinderella story. Kurt has a big fan base by himself. I can see Anna and Evan fans still bitter (get over it, Nicole won both fan and judges’ votes and stop reinterpreting the past) voting extra hard to get Anna a win. Jennifer has the personality but I am waiting to see how she does with jives or cha cha. She maybe more Jane Seymour than Baby. Kyle should do fine but I think he looks too younger for Lacey. Kyle and Chelsie would fit better. Lacey’s too in your face. But I do not think Lacey has the maturity and patience to work with someone like Michael Bolton like Chelsie.
Time out: Can I just say….every single one of you have me so excited for this upcoming season. I love all of your thoughts. And can you imagine all of our commentaries on the show when it’s time? 🙂 Now if only Sept. 20th would come sooner! 😀 Love to All!xxx Ok, resume to your regular scheduled program.
I really hope Brandy is good. I honestly don’t want too see Derek win again, as a fan of him and Nicole and him last season I want too see someone different win. And Maks has missed out so many times, I really hope him and Brandy can take it all the way.
When it comes to the ringers, I think Audrina is the ringer, she’s trained in ballet, jazz, and tap.
Brandy should do find but I have no sympathy for Maks. He has missed out many times but he could have won with Mel. That freestyle showed off what he could do more than Mel. He had two athletes as partners, now three pop stars (Willa, Brandy, Mel). I am more shocked he avoids the backlash that other pros get for always getting good partners. He has yet to get a Macy or Cloris too.
Audrina is not a ringer. She was a swimmer in high school. Not on the dance or drill team. But if people called Joanna a ringer, then I guess Audrina is a ringer.
For the most part, I like your picks, Heidi! But I think that some of the MTV crowd out there (the Jersey Shore and Hills fans) might wind up voting for Audrina and the Situation to keep them in longer, even if they’re not watching DWTS. Remember “Master P”? A great example of someone who over-stayed his welcome, because of the “vote for the worst” campaigns on the web. I hope that doesn’t happen, but I think there’s more of a chance it will this season than in some of the others, because of the celebrities involved.
I am rooting for Tony and Audrina, jenniffer and derek, and kurt and anna. Brandy is not the most exciting person to do the show so I don’t think she will win. She has a personality like Evan Lsyachek (probably spelt that wrong) so its going to be iffy for her. Audrina could be the enxt Mellissa Rycroft. She has the body, the fan base, and the personality. Derek and Jenniffer is going to be very entertaing for sure. They seem like a lock for the finals. I ahve a good feeling about Kurt Warner. He has a great personality, seems to move well (at least on the football field so this should translate well for him on the show), and definately has a great partner that will challenge him with great choreography. If he was paired up with Cheryl, I would have written him off entirely (sorry Rick Fox 🙁 ).
Rick Fox is at a disadvantage I for sure. Cheryl is not going to give him a lot to do. The only partners that she had that she gave good choreoraphy to were the two times she won with drew and emmmit, and giles.
Cheryl’s placed no lower than 5th when she did not get the older male celeb like Wayne and Tom. Rick’s is not old and an athlete. Rick’s going to at least 5th or better.
John he got partners like Debi Mazer and Denise sorry can’t remember her surname.
John he got partners like Debi Mazer and Denise sorry can’t remember her surname. Maks has certainly not always got good partners.
Based on nothing but the informative and insightful posts on this site, and just my gut and in no particular order:
bottom six: Kyle, Michael & Margaret the first 3 to leave; Bristol, Audrina and Mike in the middle.
top six, therefore: Kurt, Florence and Rick in the middle; Brandy, Jenniferand David in the final.
I’ll change this around beyond recognition, I’m sure, once I’ve seen them dance, but it’s always fun to throw predictions out there just to see how close my gut is.
An interesting group, no doubt. Can’t wait for the premier …. or at least some actual rehearsal video. So glad to finally see a photo of Brandy and Maks standing up! That sitting around in a chair looking at a notebook wasn’t getting it for me … what was that all about?! Enough with the book learnin’ … grab hold and swing me around the dance floor, will ya 😉
IMHO if Rick has rhythm he could stick around for awhile. Remember Jason Taylor was 6′ 6′” and got to second place with a pro partner that is no where as nearly creative as Cheryl. On twitter Cheryl is doing her best to have fun with the height difference, and Rick actually has good posture, taking a page from Jason Taylor…if he can appear smooth, it might be interesting.
In a season of pretty basic dancers, the best pro partner could easily be the advantage for any of the competitors. But this is also the problem with this season. With no one being capable enough to do the kind of things Nicole did last season, this will be a step backwards in showcasing strong choreography, and that’s a lunch bag letdown. I guess Tom stating the obvious that he loves trainwrecks will be more the case than not.
I am looking forward to the first episode, where I can pick my favorites and revise my initial prediction:
1) Derek/Jennifer – The most popular (and arguably the most talanted) pro paired with a female who is considered a nostalgic pop culture dancing icon.
2) Maks/Brandy – Will they sizzle? He is a popular and talented pro, she is young enough to be able to dance and yet experienced enough to handle performing for an audience.
3) Karina/Situation – Now this couple should sizzle. I predict the showmance question will bring them far and if he’s got dedication and any natural ability they will place third.
4) Kym/David – David Hasslehoff, duh. He’s pretty old and not as into ‘clean living’ as Donny Osmond, so I don’t think he’ll have the stamina to carry forward past the semifinals.
5) Chelsie/Michael – She’s popular but not so much as the pros I’ve put higher, I think. Michael Bolton will coast into this placement due to his likeability and nostalgia. I don’t have any faith in his dancing ability.
6) Corky/Florence – Her dances won’t be anything remarkable, but the Brady factor will keep her in.
7) Kurt/Anna T – Am I wrong about this one? Normally the football guys place higher, but there are *so* many pop culture icons that hit just the right demographic, Kurt can’t really compete.
8. Lacey/Kyle – Nope, no idea. Had to stick him in somewhere. If they go for the lighthearted comedy they will get this far.
9) Mark/Bristol – The big question here is: Are the majority of DWTS voters Palin-lovers, Palin-haters, or Palin-neutral? Not to mention I’ve seen a certain level of resentment that she is on the show at all. And I get the feeling that she will be uncomfortable with pro-style dancing and live performance. Mark has his work cut out for him.
10) Tony/Audrina – No idea. But if I don’t know who she is, will anybody else?
11) Louis/Margaret – Can’t even imagine Margaret dancing, but then again she is the muse for Chris Isaak’s Forever Blue Album and she is with one of the more consistent pros, so prove me wrong Louis!
12) Cheryl/Rick – No idea, but everyone else’s places just seemed right to me, so I stuck Cheryl here.
The more I learn about each contestant, the more my opinion changes as to how well I think they will do on DWTS!
From what I know and from what I’ve heard about these contestants, my Top 5 picks, for now, are as follows:
5th Rick/Cheryl – Rick knows how to compete is excited and driven and he has Cheryl who is no joke and will push him to his furtherest capabilities.
4th Audrina/Tony- Audrina seems very driven, flexible, young and she has Tony’s who is probably hungry for the win! She will probably do well.
3rd Brandy/Maks
2nd Mike/Karina Mike is in great physical condition and he has a very strong partner in Karina. I’m sure she wants that trophy!
1st Jennifer/Derek
I pretty much know this order may change depending on their personalities, how well the audience receives them, how well the couples get along and of course how they perform.
I really think Brandy has a strong chance of winning this depending on her dancing ability. She’s young, has a very fun/outgoing personality and has Maks who also cozies up to the audience. They are a good looking pairing and she may have a very strong fan base as well.
I say Jennifer & Derek for the win if they make it to the top three because of her will & determination and she seems to be in great physical condition. Even at 50, she looks “good” next to Derek. I love how Patrick Swayze said, she’s the type of actress that lives in the moment. If she can apply this method to the competition, there’s no telling how far she can go, and with Derek as her partner, it increases her chances even more He’s a brilliant choreographer and will choreograph to his partner’s strengths. They both have charming personalities too. She’s my sentimental favorite for the season!
Finally, I think I see Kyle maybe in the middle, especially because he’s younger and may do better than we think. Also I think Margaret is flying under radar and may also prove to be a surprise, because she is a belly dancer which probably means she knows how to move her body well.
Overall, I think we are in for a lot of surprises this season. Let the competition begin!
Hiedi. I have a question, on the 2 night premire event, Will it be two dancing nights or a dance night and a results dhow? Thx!! Great Website Hiedi! This is the best DWTS blog around. Easy 🙂
Being a Bigger Fan of SYTYCD than DWTS I have to divide my votes between LACEY and CHELSIE
I love to watch them dance they could make anyone look Good. nuff said
Great new Blog from Maks today! Check it out if interested:
http://www.tvguide.com/Celebrity-Blogs/Dancing-Maks-Sticking-1022813.aspx
Well I read his blog, and he’s not going to do anything different? Mistake. One thing that Maks should learn by now is he’s painfully predictable in his choreography, and he still hasn’t won.
Well I read his blog, and he’s not going to do anything different? Mistake. One thing that Maks should learn by now is he’s painfully predictable in his choreography, and then gets desperate for creativity on the last day because he hasn’t worked at it.
sorry for the double post.
[…] Heidi and Courtney (Part I and Part II) turned in their feelings of how the power ranking would work for the season. While John wrote about odds/competitiveness factor as well as number of twitter followers for each celeb. […]
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