DWTS Season 11, Week 2 – Dancing by the Numbers
I have to say – this is probably the most overall likeable cast that they’ve maybe ever had. There is not one single person on this show that I don’t like and enjoy – albeit in different ways. Seriously – I love all of them in different ways. It’s also a very good competitive season, which will make things VERY interesting about 2 weeks down the road. 🙂 That said, I’m not quite ready to call it quits on Michael Bolton just yet. We will see. But here’s how the numbers stack up. If you want a refresher on how they determine who goes home, visit last week’s Season 11 inaugural post. 🙂
The judges really tried to separate the men from the boys last night – but still seeming to try to keep the race competitive. I hate when they do that. I don’t know if it’s intentional or just accidental. I thought there was some underscoring going on. I don’t think there was any real *over* scoring, but a couple couples definitely deserved higher scores, Rick and Cheryl being one, Jennifer and Derek being another. And I would NOT have been upset if Audrina and Tony had gotten a point or two higher, even though it would have ruined that stroke of sheer brilliance that requires Tony wax his legs. 🙂 Genius, pure and simple. Word to the wise, be nice to the producers at all times or they will whip out footage that you will live to regret. 🙂 So, how did our couples do?
The Judges Scores and the corresponding percentage of points awarded:
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Place | Celebrity | Score | Percentage |
1. | Jennifer | 24 | 10.86 |
2. | Audrina | 23 | 10.41 |
3. | Kyle | 22 | 9.95 |
4. | Bristol | 22 | 9.95 |
5. | Rick | 21 | 9.5 |
6. | Brandy | 21 | 9.5 |
7. | Kurt | 21 | 9.5 |
8. | Florence | 19 | 8.6 |
9. | Situation | 18 | 8.14 |
10. | Margaret | 18 | 8.14 |
11. | Michael | 12 | 5.43 |
Just looking at that table, the natural assumption is that Michael is going home. But not so fast. Yes, I thought this about David and we know how that turned out, but I really believe that Michael has a solid, voting fanbase – and he’s not burned any bridges or damaged his own rep the way David has. Will it be enough for Michael to stay around? Well, I kind of doubt it, but I think it could be close.
I think that the top 7 couples shown above are likely safe. Jennifer performed amazingly well, doing what was easily the most difficult Jive choreography of the night and if YouTube views and twitter chatter are anything to go by, she’s building (or rebuilding) a pretty solid fanbase of her own. While that comes with it’s own problems (ie, people assuming she’s safe) I don’t think that is a concern for another week or two yet.
Audrina did what was easily, and far and away, the best quickstep of the night and easily the number 2 dance of the night. I think she and Jennifer were both underscored by a point or two. I think she’s safe tonight and probably for another few weeks. But she doesn’t have the excitement factor that Kyle does, and has probably an even smaller fanbase. She’s very beautiful, but she risks being boring – or too quiet might be a better word. The leg waxing thing, as painful as it will be for Tony, will help them tremendously. For now. 🙂 Her dress was awfully similar to Melissa’s dress, with the webbing at the top. But then Jennifer’s was similar to Nicole’s – weird.
Kyle – I counted this guy out before the seasons started and boy, was I WRONG! This kid is just plain delightful. Will he make the final four?? Well, I don’t know. I’m still inclined to say no, if only because of the powerhouse fanbases that he’s up against. He could build a fanbase in the coming weeks though.
Ah, Bristol. I can’t believe it but I really like this girl. But, despite what some righty blogs are saying, she’s unlikely to make the final four. She did a good job last night, but she’s definitely not up to the calibur of Jennifer, Audrina, Kyle, Rick and Brandy. She’s not a performer, and I think Sarah’s followers will only take her so far. I don’t think that that she earned the 22 she was given, especially not when compared to Rick Fox. But, anyway, Bristol is safe for a bit yet.
Rick-Brandy-Kurt, also known as the 21 club. One of these pairs does not belong in this group and that would be Rick and Cheryl. I think that Rick should have at least changed places with Bristol, he maybe even should have had a 23. He did a great job. Brandy was very disappointing and this is an example of why I’m always on a roller coaster with Maks – his choreography last night was just not up to par and to top it off, they both seemed either off time or out of sorts. No, I’m not talking about their squabbling (people, she was joking!) – I actually thought that was hilarious. GO Brandy!! But the speed kept changing, slow to fast to slow and there were lots of rest periods built in. Lots of breaks and they just weren’t together. Very strange – I had to watch it again to try to figure out what the problem was. But in any case, none of these three are going anywhere. Kurt? He and Anna looked adorable but their dance made no impression on me.
Now here’s where it gets interesting. The bottom four score getters. Hmmm…I’m going to say that, based on goober charm, the Situation is safe. He didn’t do a good dance, but he’s clearly TRYING and he’s oddly charming. People, don’t give me any crap about Jersey Shore (or The Hills for that matter) being hit shows guaranteeing their safety – please. These shows are popular, but they are not the ratings powerhouses you would like to believe. They get great ratings – for MTV or whatever channel they are on. But this audience isn’t likely to vote in the same numbers as the main DWTS audience. HOWEVER, both Audrina and The Situation will likely stick around for a while because SHE can dance and he’s a charming goober. 🙂
That leaves us with Michael, Margaret and Florence. My gut instinct is to call Michael out just because they were SO harsh on the scoring – and the dance wasn’t good. At all. They clearly want him gone, IMO. Margaret did a much better dance than last week, and Florence made no impact but she didn’t suck. But I think he has a larger fanbase than Margaret and Florence – is it big enough?? Well, let’s go back to the numbers.
Michael versus Florence – Michael needs 32k more votes per 1 Million votes cast to beat Florence
Michael versus Margaret – Michael needs 27.2k more votes per 1 Million votes cast to beat Margaret
Conversely, to touch anyone in the top 3 Michael needs at least 45.3k more votes per million. I definitely don’t see that happening. But what about Margaret and Florence?? He only has to beat one of the in order to stay and if he’s going to beat anyone it will likely be Margaret. Will Michael get 27.2k more votes per million than Margaret?? I have no freakin’ clue. 🙂 I’m going to say no. You heard it here first.
Thank you, Heidi, I always look forward to this. Now to be honest, math confuses me, and I am not going to pretend that I understand totally what you say, but I love that you break it down so even I (the “math idiot”) can be (almost) clear about the whole elimination thing. And, it’s very logical!
And I don’t feel useless, like what happens when my kids are trying to explain all the new math processes so that I can help them with their homework…..
Couldn’t agree more about both Rick & Cheryl and Jennifer & Derek – I thought the former deserved at least a 24 and the latter, a 26. Rewatched Brisol’s quickstep – cute, but definitely overscored. She should be in the 21 club instead of Rick, and no way in HELL she will make the final 4. Sweet, likeable girl – but compared to the other performance & voting powerhouses in this competition? No chance.
Hush your mouth about the dittoed costumes, girl – I’m saving it for the Cheesecake Awards. Sssssh 😉
Sitch should be safe this week, no prob – but as they weed out the less entertaining, less memorable dancers, he could be in trouble. It will be a close call between Marge & Michael – but the latter did so freakin’ bad last night (and has just come across as a bit of a crabapple), I’m not sure he’s gonna have the voting juice to surpass her.
Oh, and everyone better wish Heidi a friendly “Get well soon!”, because our girl doing all the math is feeling a little under the weather 🙁 Send her some positive snarky vibes for the Cheesecake Awards tomorrow! 😉
Why is the Situation oddly charming? I totally agree and I can’t quite put my finger on it…i think he’s surprising everyone at how serious he is taking the show, and he can just be plain funny sometimes. He takes the judge’s critiques well and is giving it SO much. I’m happily surprised. Thanks for noticing as well!
P.S. Jennifer and Derrek are on my nerves. She’s, in my opinion, acting like she’s got it locked up. I love Baby, but I’m surprisingly turned off by her attitude and over confidence.
I am not sure what I missed, but I don’t see Jennifer acting like she has this locked up. It’s too early to see who wins and she saw first hand with the Hoff leaving it can be anyone.
I am not sure what to think of the Situation. I do give him credit for trying. I can see the bottom two being Margaret and Michael. Can’t wait to see tonight.
Get well soon Heidi! Thanks for doing this post.
I believe Michael is going home, and here’s why.
Normally, Bolton and the Hoff would have been in a duel for the niche of “middle-aged charmer”, pulling in scads of votes from the mature ladies in the audience. But this season there’s a ringer in the mix: I think Rick Fox has that role all sewn up, leaving only scraps for the other gentlemen.
Heidi, I hope you are feeling better!
I think Michael will go, just because the guys who try to “take over” their instruction from Chelsea don’t do well. What is up with that, by the way? Its not near as charming as when the women stars try it.
I think The Situation is charming and endearing, because he is filling the role Adam C first filled…. Remember the outrage when he was first announced as a contestant, and then the BIGGER outrage when we found they paired him with Julianne??? And then the Season started, and we found that there’s a nice guy underneath what we thought he was. Steve-O filled that role, too. And I think Joanna and Lil Kim also filled that role, people HATED them at the beginning because of what was THOUGHT, and then we found that they are indeed much deeper. Oh… And maybe Kelly O filled this spot, too???
And this year, it’s The Situation, and we’re finding out he’s more than his image “says” he is…..
I’m terrible at predicting who will go home, but if it isn’t Michael I’ll be surprised.
Get well soon Heidi with all the snarky vibes I could give for the cheesecake awards
@Lori – I think that’s a pretty apt assessment of The Situation: he’s one of those people we all thought we’d hate, but has turned out to be pretty likeable after all. I think it’s also kind of endearing to see a really tough, macho guy (like Chuck Liddell, or Steve-O) get a bit out of their comfort zone and feel a bit goofy. And The Sitch definitely has that covered!
@Al Bundy (nice name, hehe) – I’m beginning to think that about Rick as well. Lord knows the ladies in my office just SALIVATE over him – hell, I’ll admit he’s a beautiful slice of man, he’s just not really my type 😉 And the dude has aged pretty damn well – don’t know if I can say the same for Michael (meh…he’s alright, I think people may miss the hair), and I definitely can’t say the same for the Hoff. Rick may have a lock on the “heartthrob” role this season…although the Situation may like to think he’s right up there, too 😉
@David – It is weird when the guys try and do it…especially with Chelsie. Maybe because they mistake her laid-back personality for weakness? I’m not sure, but it seems like Chelsie’s partners have gotten progressively LESS charming as the seasons have worn on. I thought Ty Murray was totally lovable; Louie was cute but not quite as endearing as Ty; Jake started off kinda likeable and by the end looked kinda smarmy & whiney; and now Michael just seems like he doesn’t want to be there at all. It’s strange…hope she gets someone a bit more chipper next season :-/
On a semi-unrelated note…anyone catch Mark’s tweet about Chelsie this morning? Something to the tune of “Sending lots of love to @ChelsieKayH judges were too rough tonight, I thought you were amazing & beautiful. I love you babe..xx” For two people that are “just friends”…that’s a pretty intimate text. Hmmmm….
…oh, and Tom’s tweeting about “Boo-gate” from after Jennifer & Derek got their scores last night, so I’m guessing the elim this week isn’t going to be shocker…otherwise I think he’d be tweeting the hell out of that.
Well, Court, I have to say that, after watching it again, I prefer the sorta dittos of Jennifer and Audrina to the stuff that Brandy and Maks were wearing. Brandy looked cute, but Maks is much too bulky for that outfit. Take a similar, but simpler outfit and put it on Derek (like they did last night) and it just wears better because Derek is built more like a male model. Very slender. And don’t worry, I have LOTS more to say about the costuming from last night. LOTS. 😉
Unfortunately I have graduated from slightly under the weather to craptastic. What do you call it when you feel like you have a bad cold, but you also want to throw up?? But I don’t have a fever.
If they keep underscoring Rick and Cheryl, the fans are just going to re-double their efforts. I’m not sure why they continue to keep him down on the farm with Kurt. Unless they want to have some wow vast improvement arc for him to make the show interesting.
Re Mark and Chelsie – unrequited crush, that’s all. And I really hope Michael goes home, he’s not acting nearly as likeable as he seemed at first. I will miss Chelsie around though!
LOL Heidi! Along with Courtney’s review, this was fantastic as well. LOL to calling The Situation a “goober”. Thanks, I’ve caught the giggles something fierce. I have a feeling thise is nothing compared The Cheescake Awards coming. Here’s to tonight. I really hope it’s Michael to go.
Once again, another great post. Ya’ll are so thorough, and right on right on. Can’t disagree with much being said here. Didn’t want to like the Sitch, but am not ready for that goober to go home yet – there really is a genuine person underneath all that bravado. I really like Bristol as well, even though there’s no chance she’ll be in the finals, or even the top 4. And now that Sarah has been in the audience, can we please quit asking Bristol about her mom! I really also admire Florence for honestly trying to perform each dance well and not falling back on the old-geezer-lets-make-this-funny-cause-i-can’t-dance-for sh*t route.
It really needs to be Michael tonight. I don’t think he can take another week – emotionally nor physically. I believe in their package last night he said that the first dance – the Viennese Waltz – was traumatizing. Ooh boy! I just don’t think he’s got it in him. He may be one of those contestants who underestimated what this competition requires. The fans will not be doing him any favors by keeping him on. That said, Bruno’s comment was totally off the mark – for one, it’s not constructive; for another, it’s not true – it definitely was NOT the worst jive in the history of the show (remember Master P?). At least Michael is making an effort – more than can be said for a number of previous contestants.
Hope you feel better soon, Heidi. My Oma used to fix me a hot toddy at night – hot water with a goodly shot of whiskey, some lemon and honey – that never failed. Slept like a log, sweated like a hog, but always felt better then next morning.
Linde, I so agree about Bruno’s comments to Michael. I’m glad Len let him have it. Len was right. Some things aren’t cool to say and are better left unsaid.
(((((Heidi)))), get well soon!! I like Russian Tea when I get sick (orange juice and tea combined). Nothink like good ol’ fashion chicken noodle soup or some hot Mexican food to burn it out too. Both nurturing.
Courtney, I saw Mark’s tweet too. Weird. Why is he always tweeting her things like that, and never getting anything like that back from her? I don’t blame Chelsie though, that kind of stuff kinda puts me off.
Brandy’s jive was disappointing. I thought she looked better in rehearsals than on the live show. I don’t think those thigh high socks were doing her any favors either. It highlighted her legs too much, and you could see that her leg action wasn’t quite right.
I too want to thank you, Heidi for doing the math. I too am a math idiot. Lori, I’ll buy you a drink! LOL to math idiots everywhere!
**
You never know with the bottom two. But I will say that the last two in the red lights will be Brandy & Michael. I always remember Lil’ Kim & Ty. So nothing will shock me tonight. I thought Brandy’s attitude cost her votes with the Donny Osmond worshipping Housewives in America. I simply dont know.
**
Get well, Heidi!
After having finally seen the performances, I can offer these thoughts. In general, I think the scores are way too high. It looks like the producers are even more determined to render the judges to be irrelevant even sooner in the season. The 2 best dances were Derek & Jennifer’s jive (that’s a good jive PERIOD) and Tony and Audrina’s Quickstep. With the exception of the bottom 2, I thought everyone else was more or less equal in terms of actual dancing. While I understand the love for Rick & Cheryl (yes, being good looking is advantageous in ballroom dancing), to me it wasn’t much better than the rest of the pack. Don’t get me wrong, Cheryl is doing a good job and Rick is really stepping up to the plate. Was it good? yes. Celebrity good. Good enough to merit a judges score near the top this week? I’m afraid not.
Yes, Bruno was being too harsh. I think inviting anyone to do the show and then being rude to them after they gave an honest effort is not called for.
Thank you, Semi-K….. your comment about Bruno was exactly what I was feeling, but you phrased it so perfectly. That’s the rub, isn’t it …. you’re INVITED to come on this show (and from what I’ve read, in some cases even pursued), you work hard, put in an honest effort, then have to listen to to Bruno pontificate.
Last night, Audrina and Bristol really surprised me and Jennifer also. Brandy was a bit of a disappointment but she’s also been kind of annoying lately. Not sure if I really like her.
Not sure of the hype on Rick Fox and Cheryl. He looks good and he doesn’t have terrible posture, but in all honesty, he is not that much better and not a better “contender” than any of the others. In my opinion, he looks good doing his moves/steps, but Cheryl does most of the dancing and that’s how he gets away with it. Just my opinion, but I don’t think he’s all that and I hate it when they keep bringing up the height because according to them, they shouldn’t be judging or taking that into consideration.
Bring on some Cheescake Awards!!!!
I didn’t see the show last night, but the few seconds of Tony and Audrina’s Quickstep tonight, I was WTF, this isn’t that great. She was still tentative, getting slightly pushed instead of mirroring him .. and as far as Kyle is concerned, he’s getting by on his personna. The Quickstep was not very crisp, all the traditional costuming in the world is not going to make up for slackness in standard dance position.
I think the scores were off for last monday night.Brandi got less scoring points than Bristol and Kurt.Come on Len and team are surely showing favoratism eary on in the game.Play some music genre that everybody knows not just what the judges like and the same for the dances.The dances are the same each year and I’m getting a little bit discouraged by the teaming of the couples.
I know they will keep Bristol on the show because of the ratings,the same reason they brought her on the show.Politics are everywhere. And…. the booing was for you Sarah Palin,believe me.
@Andie Audrina did good! Shes not like an Ashly Costa, Cheryl Burke, or Kym Johnson yet but she has NO dance experience. I think we should ALL leave the judging to the JUDGES and since they were second to top on the leaderbored….They did good and so did Kyle. GOSH!!!
And its very obvious the booing was not for Sarah Palin aswell. Wery OBVIOUS
That is very LOL! 😛
Nobody is saying Audrina is anywhere near as good as a pro…not even close. But all this fawning over a mediocre dance? Please. Brooke Burke, Apolo Ohno and Shannon Elizabeth for that matter blew her out of the water in terms of a GOOD Quickstep.
I think if people are that entertained by Audrina then the quality of dancing this season is poor.
Andie, I’m not saying that Audrina is the best thing ever, but it is HARDLY fair to judge a dance on a few seconds and not the whole thing. And she was better than a lot of the other people dancing on monday.
Zack, what the hell? 🙂 Leave the judging to the judges? What the hell fun is that??? LOL 🙂 Shame on you. 🙂
But Andie, you said you didn’t see the whole dance, so are you really in a position to judge? EVERYTHING is relative and on Monday night she did a better dance than most of the other people on the show RIGHT NOW.
Was anyone else as offended as we were last night with Bruno’s behavior? I think the “Fox is waiting” comment was really indignant. And he continued to be rude and caddy well beyond what would ever be called for! I’m personally hoping ABC will can him. In our opinion, Michael Bolton was as close to A-list as this show’s ever gotten, he’s a bonifide celebrity and to treat him with that kind of humiliation and disrespect seems like the shows kind of shooting themselves in the foot, just my opinion…
Get Well Heidi!
I did not think anything could top Len’s inappropriate comment to Nicole in last season’s finale when he told her she should win before Evan and Anna did their final dance. Now Bruno has topped that. Clearly, the producers have not schooled the judges in how to be constructive or more tactful in their comments–maybe they will now. I have not seen Michael do any of the usual post-show press. I know he’s on tour but even Nicole/Derek pre-taped Kimmel last season when they had to go to NY.
Now that I’m done snarking, it’s almost lunchtime on the East Coast and I’m getting hungry for some cheesecake;)
I’m going to say this. I saw a few seconds of the results show and I wasn’t as impressed as others. I went back to youtube today and I’ll tell you why I’m not feeling Audrina at this point:
#1 she was tentative from the get go, and it felt like she was behind a tad. It was like how Jennie Garth was unsure of herself, especially on things like simple wrap turns on the top of the stage.
#2 dance position. Her left hand is clawing Tony, hanging on for dear life, it should be a light touch. Light and shade, floating, not hanging on to a rollercoaster ride.
#3 her body carriage needs to get stronger, she’s not using her core to keep herself up.
#4 Dancing Quickstep is an art. For me the running step sequences are not difficult, they look difficult because of the timing involved. Quickstep is far more about the rise and fall, good heel leads, light and shade, hold and the carriage. This is the only International Standard Dance in the competition and the hold, dance position and carriage are very important to the overall appeal of the dance.
If they are not there, then it’s not a strong Quickstep. If Kyle and Audrina were the best Quicksteps of the night, it wasnt’ a good night for Quickstep.
@Heidi with respect, the point about Audrina not being as good as a pro, was interesting because two of the pros Kym Johnston and Ashly Costa aren’t on competing at this point. Just because other celebrities I sited were not on the same time as Audrina doesn’t make my point less valid. The ones I mentioned were strong Quicksteppers in week 2 of their respective season, and they were untrained dancers as well.
Thanks for at least seeing Brandy was joking lol, I can’t believe the fuss that was made about that. Maks had to clear it up in US magazine and on a Mark Malkin article. And Brandy and Maks both on twitter lol. Hopefully Brandy and Maks can come back next with a breakthrough performance, samba.
I think you’ll see a lot of commentary about Bruno in the Cheesecake awards. I’ll leave it for there. 🙂
I’m not sure who was talking about pros in this respect Andie. It’s entirely possible I missed something. But my point was that, compared to the other quicksteps of the night, Audrina’s was the best. Far from perfect, of course – but the best of the night certainly.
I’m not a huge Maks fan, as you probably have guessed 🙂 but I had no problem with anything Brandy or he said and did the other night. I like their relationship – she knows when to call him out and he takes it well, I think. Seems pretty playful to me. But I did see a lot of people calling Brandy out on twitter, which is why I said something. Maks can take it, obviously.
Hey Heidi, I thought that was cool when you pointed out Brandy was only joking too especially being you aren’t a big fan to Maks. Class act move. 😉 I like their connection too and she knows how to ….what’s the word I want….”tame” him. Then again, he’s a tamer guy than what we’ve seen in the past. He’s grown a lot as a person. But, we’ll always see a provocative side too to him which I love to death. Anyway, I hope they have a better dance next week. I’m a huge fan as you know…but, their dance was a little messy this week and her steps needed to be faster. Gawd, I would hate to do the JIVE though. Wouldn’t it be hard? That’s my least fave dance from them all anyway. I’m glad it’s out of the way for some.
As for Audrina….the more I see, the more I love her. She’s such a natural charmer. My three fave dancers right now: Brandy, Audrina, Kyle, and Jennifer.
*can’t wait for the Cheesecake. I’m hungry. lol
Oops. make that “four” above.
Brandy, Audrina, Bristol, Kyle and Warner are all over-rated at this point.
I hope Jennifer, Florence and some of the other strong dancers keep going.
Bristol sorry, she has no real dance skills,
Its politics, She does no even qualify as a star