DWTS Season 11, Week 8 – Dancing by the Numbers
A.K.A – How the hell do I know who’s going to go home? 🙂
Well, there are times I wonder why I bother and this is one of those times. But then, I remind myself that the math really wasn’t as favorable to Rick as it seemed. Bristol only needed 11k votes (1.09%) and Kyle only needed 5,500 votes per million votes cast (or 0.55%) – chump change.
That does NOT mean that Bristol (or Kyle) does not have a huge fanbase – they could indeed have large fanbases. We just can’t really be sure of that. If either Jennifer or Brandy goes home tonight, it will show that their fanbase is relatively sizeable.
So, where do we stand? Well, the spread is a little bit better this week (if your name is Kyle, Jennifer or Brandy, that is), but still not enough to guarantee anyone safety.
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Place | Celebrity | Score | Percentage |
1. | Jennifer | 57 | 21.51 |
2. | Brandy | 57 | 21.51 |
3. | Kyle | 56 | 21.13 |
4. | Kurt | 48 | 18.11 |
5. | Bristol | 47 | 17.74 |
As you can see, Brandy and Jennifer are a good 3.77 percent higher than Bristol. I’m inclined to think that the two of them are safe – but this season, you never can tell. If one of them goes, I’m leaning towards Brandy just because of Jennifer’s history. I’m hoping neither of them goes home, though – that would be a real shame. On the other hand, if Jennifer went home I could relax on Monday nights. 🙂
Bristol and Kurt are our bottom dwellers this week; lets start with what it would take for Bristol to stay. For Bristol to stay, the following would have to happen:
– Bristol needs 3,800 more votes per 1 million votes cast than Kurt.
– If Kurt has a nice big fanbase and she can’t catch him, she would need 34k more votes per million than Kyle for her to stay and for Kyle to leave.
For Kurt AND Bristol to stay and for Kyle to go home, the following things BOTH have to happen:
– Kurt has to get 30,200 more votes per 1 million votes cast, AND;
– Bristol has to get 34,000 more votes per 1 million votes cast.
That’s a lot of votes, normally. If they succeed at that, Kyle goes home. What would it take for Brandy or Jennifer to go home? The following:
– One of the ladies gets ONE more vote than the other, AND;
– Kyle gets 3,800 more votes per million votes cast than the loser between Brandy and Jennifer, AND;
– Kurt gets 34,000 more votes per million votes cast than the loser between Brandy and Jennifer, AND;
– Bristol gets 37,750 more votes per million votes cast than the loser between Brandy and Jennifer.
How the heck likely do you think this is?? Well, ordinarily I would say “not very likely” because the bottom two really aren’t that good at dancing, with Bristol edging out Kurt. But there are a WHOLE lot of variables at play here. We have producers that insist on showing Jennifer in pain and weak. We have Maks getting into fights with Carrie Ann for which he has since apologized (some claim that Derek and Shannon went home after they got really mad in confessional – I argue she was going to go anyway, but how do you know?). We have a youngster that is learning how to dance which appeals to some segments and who has a mom who is very popular in some circles (but also reviled in many others). We have a very popular football player and a little-known charmer. Who the hell knows who’s going to go home?
Another little issue at play here is – when good dancers go home before their time, what do their fans do? This isn’t a few weeks ago when Kurt needed 48k and got it – it’s a different environment. So, are the Audrina fans going to vote Brandy and Jennifer because they’re mad that Kurt and Bristol – lesser dancers – are still there? How about Rick fans? I think we can be sure that some percentage of those voters are going to vote for someone else. I would be willing to bet that they vote for either Kyle, Jennifer or Brandy.
For all the reasons above, I’m going to say that either Kurt or Bristol will go home. We’ve had so-called “shocking” eliminations two weeks in a row – it’s time for something to work out in a normal way. 🙂 That’s my hope. I’ll probably be wrong.
So tell me – how wrong am I?
THANK YOU!!!
Well before I saw the numbers, I thought Kyle would go because of his smaller fan base, but now I think it will be Kurt. I do hope it will be either Bristol or Kurt! So again, Heidi, thanks for this post!
I got no idea…..Thx for the post tho Heidi!
I REALLLLYYY hope you’re right about it being Kurt or Bristol. I would prefer it be Bristol but like you said, who knows anymore? At the beginning of the season I thought Kyle would make it to the finals, then I changed my mind, but now with Audrina and (sadly) Rick out of the way, I think he can do it. 🙂 I love that guy. Haha.
I agree it will probably (and should) be either Kurt or Bristol, but I would love for it to be Brandy tonight. She may be a good dancer, but I just don’t like her, or her and Maks together.
hope bristol goes.
voted in Kyle only.
DAAAAAANG JennH, I guess. Way to not beat around the bush. Well, I will be honest, if Brandy or Jennifer are gone tonight, this show has officially jumped the shark.
Right on, Heidi, my sentiments exactly. It should be either Kurt or Bristol, and your analysis supports that thinking. I’m leaning towards Kurt. Very likeable guy, has put in the work, but if it comes down to who I would rather see dance again between the 2, my vote goes to Bristol. I’ll admit that perhaps partly due to the trainwreck syndrome (can’t avert my eyes), but I also see Bristol as having made major improvements, whereas Kurt has been kind of stagnant these last weeks. I look forward to seeing what Bristol will be able to pull off more so than I do with Kurt. I love Anna and could watch her dance all day and night, especially with Johnathan, but hoping Bristol will get a chance to dance one more night. She’ll be gone after next week – here’s to Jennifer, Brandy & Kyle in the finals 🙂 Stranger things have happened, though, so DON’T FORGET TO VOTE!
I must be watching a different show. Kurt at least makes an effort to improve. He puts everything into his dancing. Bristol on the other hand, well, she knows she doesn’t have to work for it. I feel for the rest of the dancers. They work thier butts off and they know in the backs of their minds it just doesn’t matter. Sadly, we’ll see another good dancer leave. I’ve been an avid watcher of DWTS for years but, this season has about done it for me.
Kyle & Lacey and Jennifer & Derek are in the Semi Finals. Uh-oh, where does that leave Brandy & Maks?
I pray BRISTOL PALIN GOES HOMES, Its overdue
Her dances were nothing but steps and the stupid chair on the floor was just as bad. Gee, what a deal Bristol finally air borne.
Kyle was outstanding, he has been really working and he has a lot of effort and he makes it fun to watch. Thank goodness we have Kly,
Kurt, was not bad, I still want Bristol Gone, I think some of the feelings of how much Bristol has been saved due to Tea Party this is dancing not a populiarity contest. DWTS sure screwed up when they got Palin,
Jennifer and Derek are a great couple, they seem to flow over the floor and make it look so easy with grace, softness and yet the judges have been nasty at times, I say be honest and stop plying head games and those who are really working and practice and put effort deserve better scores.
Bristol is over scored. Fair no
Keep your fingers crossed and I will even cross my toes to get rid of Bristol
Sorry Rob, they just announced Bristol safe. It’s down to Brandy and Kurt. I don’t know, I think Brandy’s out. DARN!
I won’t ruin it any longer, but….
Kurt’s out T_T He didnt’ deserve to get eliminated, but Bristol keeps on coming back.
Man, can you believe that?
Maksim really screw everything up. Think he lost some votes.
How can he say that wasn’t brandy’s fault. They are a couple, she’s not dancing by herself…
And I really liked kurts chacha. Sad he left. =/
Congrats, Nathan!! Brandy is SAFE!! Glad you didnt have to have Audrina and Tony flashbacks and go there again. 😀
I think Bristol is doing very good. This is all new to her, so you have to give her cerdit deserved. At least SHE doesn’t act all high and mighty as do others.
SHE IS A VERY SWEET AND KIND YOUNG LADY.
I hope she stays on and on and on. BEST OF EVERY
THING BRISTOL
I totally and completely agree to your comments. I am shocked and blown away by the fact that Bristol is still on Dancing With the Stars. The woman cannot dance and i will repeat BRISTOL PALIN CANNOT DANCE and has failed to improve over the weeks. The judges are so bias, Bristols poor performances are not reflected by the judges points especially Bruno. This sympathy points is getting to me. I mean, how bad that this get, Tonights eliminations did it. I WILL NOT BE WATCHING DANCING WITH THE STARS AGAIN. It hurts to see such good dancers are being sent home and Bristol is still there.
If Bristol and her partner had any pride for themselves and dancing they would forfeit…in the name of dance, PLEASE FORFEIT. This psuedo achievement cannot be bringing you any satisfaction.
To the judges when u give Kyle, Brandy or Jennifer an 8 or a 9 and you then give Bristol an 8, do u sleep at nights?
Oh whatever boops.
Jennifer is a pro and shouldn’t be on the show. How can Bristol compete with a pro.
Why does Derek only get dance partners who are likely to win. Some time give him someone without experience and see what he can do than.
Mary Ann,
Just because she was in a movie about 23 years ago doesn’t make her a pro, give me a break. John Travolta danced over 30 years ago in a movie, does that mean he’s a pro. I don’t think so! Remember when they shoot a movie, they do take after take until its perfect. This is a whole different ball game.
Mary Ann, she danced 23 years ago and learned one routine. One. By no means a pro, just someone who got awesome dance lessons in the past.
And Derek HAS gotten partners with little or no dance experience-Brooke Burke had NONE, and he took her to the mirrorball trophy. He took Shannon Elizabeth, who wasn’t a great dancer at all, to the halfway point. He also took a model everyone expected to go home early to the semi finals, and a celebrity fresh out of jail to the quarter finals. They’ve tried to give him sucky partners and he’s somehow taken them very far. Jennifer is a challenge in herself-he has a whole lot of limitations choreography wise-and he’s sure risen to the challenge.
The small children who did their dance and the girl who played the piano were simply awesome.
Please note those two couples of 10-12 years old had more ability then Bristol Palin / Bristol has never been given a dance with Mark that is outstanding, she just shuffles her feet thru and Mark leads her into the next move. Well I for one have not seen or enjoyed one dance that Mark has worked on with Bristol, Why is in the entertainent, the people he dances with had life Bristol is there and we all know why, DWTS has lost another viewer and viewers,
No wonder Maks is upset, he sees what is going on, I bet if you took him to the woodshed, he would expell his true feelings about what has gone down the past 8 weeks.
I knew when Kurt was given those low scores he was gone, but I kept hoping Bristol be gone. She doesnot have any dance ability or has she shown in great improvements. Give her a dance where she really has to work at she would crumble. She has been codled all thru this. Sorry, but I wanted to watch a DWTS show based on Dancing not who you are.
Just another lesson in the great world beyond dancing and it really is rigged.
The run down on each person last night, I felt was nothing but more BS to cast points away from .
Ok lets take Jennifer, yes she is older, yes she danced in a movie once, yes she has had cancer, suvior, Neck with pins, Hey which one of the viewers would be able to do what Jennifer has done Yes she has endured some real pain, Bristol cannot even compare to the practice that Jennifer, Brandy, and the other women who were taken out because we have
B. The men are on a different level of strength they also have had to practice, Mark, was such a gracious person last night, I think DWTS has done a injustice to the others who really WORKED ON THEIR DANCE. Monekey, Suit, Chair, I did not nsee any thing like this from the others. Chair routine was rather stupid, Boring dances by B/M for all their weeks, of attempt to Dance.
I love the engery and life the two couples of children did they were awesome, Again Bristol and Mark could not even beat them.
Klye , Jennifer, Brandy are the ones we need to focus on. Wait until after the dance, we may hear many bad feelings come out. Wanta take bets, ?????
Maks just might have plenty to say, I think it needs to be said, Once again Fair and honest votes not because of who you are that does not make you a dance star.
Mark was not gracious I got the wrong name, Kurt
was gracious and had nice things to say,
Mark I will add just looked like a dull little boy next to Bristol and I still think he was unable to do any real dances that he likes to show his ability.
I get sick of Mark hanging on Bristol and those little spats on the but, and giving her kiss, what is this all about, Is he on the train headed for a big fall???????
He better be careful.
I still see that stupid chair and Bristol getting on it to get on Marks back,
When I think of dancing I see Ginger Rogers, Fred E
Gene Kelly, so many that gave us dancing.
I suggest that an Independent judging committee be used like what they do at American Idol. It’s ridiculous how contestants who can’t dance remain in the competition for weeks because they have a large fan base. It surely is not fair for those who have the talent ,
grace and style in their performances. Look at what happened to Giles Marini, it was heartbreaking for most viewers that he lost.
I agree with most of the viewers comments where the more deserving performers are voted off while Bristol Palin remains up to the semi-finals. This is a joke, She should have been gone at least on the third week or so.
Jazmine
Has anyone noticed, that in one picture of Bristol and Mark near the stage area steps,
she appears to totally out step with Mark, Her right foot is on the toe and the other one planted, legs are different angle then Mark, no real movement as one one. His feet are planted
Is she shimming in this also, appears this is to draw attention away from her foot work and body movements. Please can the judges not see she is not with the music or with Mark.
I have read on site that someone wrote into DWTS and expressed their disgust with the way voting is being done.
People are making comments on Bristols FB site that they voted over 150 times for her. Using different phone numbers, accounts, Now is this really fair? What is the use of even having the others go thru all the routines and practice and the end Bristol is voted in by phoney votes.
Once again this is unfair to others, Bristol is not doing the practice and hours, she knows she is going to get the numbers.
The JUDGES NEED TO BE MAN ENOUGH AND WOMAN ENOUGH TO STAND UP AND VOTE WHAT IS FAIR.
IF THEY CANNOT vote and be honest and give overscored votes to Bristol or even to anyone they need to be replaced or shut the DWTS down.
If this continues it will be hard to get others to even want to give it try.
DWTS I wonder is DWTS is going to done the same way, I still say let the judges if they are going to be fair be the ones that count. This public vote has proven to be a sham.
Good luck Jennifer , Brandy, Kyle you have earned your votes. Carie Ann , Len, Bruno if you are what you say with all this background you need to be better, fair, honest. No more guarded dance routines like Bristol has been given.
Her weight problem what is the real problem, from day one she has not displayed any real dance steps or ability to preform. Mark plays the guard , even his routines are not good. To much covering for Bristol. HONESTY BRISTOL NEEDS TO GO HOME.