DWTS Season 11, Week 9 – Dancing by the Numbers

Well, as you all know by now, this is a crap shoot. Or a look at the odds, with no guarantee. Whatever. Thanks to the Tea Party vote skewing this entire season, we have no clue who will stay and who will go – and no, just because you’re not a Tea Party supporter and you’re voting for Bristol you don’t get to say that the Tea Party isn’t heavily influencing this thing. It’s silly to think otherwise. Of course there are people who aren’t Tea Partiers voting for her – but it doesn’t negate that voting block’s power. If her last name wasn’t Palin she would have been gone in Week 3 or 4 – definitely the week of the monkey suit. IMO.

But how big of an influence is it? Well, thanks to the judges we still don’t have a very clear view. They manage to keep the scores relatively (ridiculously?) close, such that it’s hard to tell. I personally don’t believe getting 1 or 2 % more of the vote than someone else is that big of an accomplishment, but it’s certainly enough to send someone else home – and it will likely be someone else tonight. But who? I tend to think that the judges were protecting Kyle, because I felt both of his dances were ridiculously overscored, whereas Bristol earned her 27 and was too high on her 26. But if they were into protecting anyone, they wouldn’t have overscored Bristol on that extremely vacant Waltz – they would have given her the 24 that I thought she deserved. But that’s just me. What do the number say?

The Judges Scores and Percentages

As the low scorer, Bristol is the one who’s got to make up the lost ground. What does she have to do to stay? ONE of the following:

– Bristol needs 17,600 more votes per 1 million votes cast to pass Brandy, OR;
– If Brandy is getting ton of votes, Bristol needs 22,000 more votes per million votes cast to pass Kyle, OR;
– If Kyle is also doing very well, Bristol would need 30,700 more votes per million votes cast to pass Jennifer.

I think Bristol can probably catch both Brandy and Kyle, but Jennifer?? Tough call. With all the problems voting last night, that adds an additional element of uncertainty. Let’s say Bristol passes Brandy easily and moves to the head of the class. What does Brandy have to do to stay?

– Brandy would need 4,400 more votes per 1 million votes cast to beat Kyle and send him home, OR;
– If Kyle is doing well, Brandy would need 13,160 more votes per million votes cast to beat Jennifer.

Hmmm…I see her beating Kyle easily. Jennifer? I kinda doubt it, but you never know. So let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Bristol gets the votes to pass both Kyle and Brandy, and Brandy gets the necessary votes to pass Kyle – Kyle goes home. If Brandy doesn’t beat Kyle by the required number, Brandy goes home. For this reason, I kinda lean towards Kyle going home, with Brandy a “possible”. But what would it take for Jennifer to go home? ALL of the following MUST happen:

– Kyle gets 8,800 more votes per million votes cast to pass Jennifer, AND;
– Brandy gets 13,160 more votes per million votes cast to pass Jennifer, AND;
– Bristol gets 30,700 more votes per million votes cast to pass Jennifer.

None of those numbers are unheard of – but how likely are they? Beats the hell out of me. But, due to the Jennifer numbers and my overall feeling at the end of the night last night, I’m going to go out on a very long limb (with a wing and a prayer) and say that Jennifer and Bristol are safe and that it will come down to Brandy and Kyle, with Kyle going home. I really, really hope that neither Brandy nor Jennifer go home because that would be a damn shame – one of those two deserves the win and if either of the other two get it…well, next season I will be working on the X-Factor web site we’re starting. Just kidding. I think. Actually, I’ll probably stick around just to annoy the Maks fans. 🙂

So, I know what a lot of you think. Has seeing the numbers changed any minds? Who’s going home?

And just for fun, let’s add another element of guessing or prognosticating to the mix. How will the producers call it?? Well, I think that they will call Bristol safe FIRST, unless she’s actually going home. If Bristol is going home, I think they will put her up next to either Jennifer or Brandy…probably Jennifer. If Jennifer or Brandy is going home, I bet they put them up there next to each other. Kyle? They’ll put him up next to Bristol if he’s going home.