7 responses to "Dancing With The Stars 12 – Las Vegas Odds For March 28th Before Showtime"

1. 

   # Evaine commented on March 28, 2011:

   Hey Vogue? I love seeing the odds, but I never really understand the ‘ranking’ of them. Would it be a problem to maybe put them in order from the highest odds to the lowest so clued out folks like me can actually figure it out? (Can you tell I’m not a gambler? *LOL*)
2. 

   # Courtney commented on March 28, 2011:

   @Evaine (and really everyone, since there seem to be some questions about exactly how Vegas odds work)…

   …here’s the best way to look at them: think of the first number as the dollar amount that pays out for the dollar amount put in (the second number). For example, for every $2 someone bets that Kendra will win, they’ll get $15 back if she actually wins. So if I bet $50 on Kendra and she won, I’d get $375. The less “payout” there is per dollar bet for a particular contestant, the more likely they are predicted to win. So for a favorite like Ralph, who is more expected to win than Kendra, the payout is only going to be $2 for every dollar bet…so that same $50 that got me $375 for Kendra would only pay out $100 for Ralph if he won. Make sense? So based on that, here’s how everyone would rank (with the top of the list being the most likely to win):

   1.) Ralph
   2.) Kirstie
   3.) Hines
   4.) Chelsea
   5.) Kendra
   6/7.) Chris & Romeo (tie)
   8.) Sugar Ray
   9.) Petra
   10.) Mike
   11.) Wendy
3. 

   # Voguerista commented on March 28, 2011:

   Thanks for explaining so well, Courtney!!
4. 

   # Bruce commented on March 28, 2011:

   50/1. Ouch. That’s cruel and unusual punishment from the odds-makers.
5. 

   # Courtney commented on March 28, 2011:

   @Bruce – I’m just shocked that she’s soooo much further down the list that everyone else. I mean, it would be one thing if she was just slightly lower than Mike, but MAN – they REALLLLLY don’t think she has a snowball’s chance in hell of winning! Yikes. But if she actually did win and I was one of the lucky suckers who bet on her…ooh wee. Mama’s getting a new pair of Louboutins!!! 😀

   Oh, and I forgot to mention in my comment above – should you win, you also get your original stake (the amount you bet) back – so really, if I bet $50 on Kendra and she won, I’d actually get $425 total back (my original $50 stake, plus the $375 payout).

   As for the +/- numbers – looking at the big picture, it’s basically how much better/worse the odds got for a particular contestant in a week, with a + number meaning the contestant did worse than expected, hence the odds of them winning go down, and the payout goes up; with a – number, the contestant did better than expected, the odds of them winning have increased, hence the payout goes down. I could go into more detail, but it’s a lot of jargon and probability and I just don’t have the time right now – maybe I’ll do a post in the future. But you guys get the idea 🙂
6. 

   # sandy commented on March 28, 2011:

   I think the top 4 is exactly how this season is going to go down. Maybe not exactly in that order but I do think Ralph, Kirstie, Hines, and Chelsea will be the top 4. I would be surprised if Kendra makes it to the 5th spot.

   Courtney–Thanks for the explanation, I thought I was the only clued out person on here. Nice to hear that I was not alone.
7. # DWTS Season 12 – Las Vegas Odds Before Showtime Week 3 | Pure Dancing with the Stars pingbacked on April 3, 2011:

   […] we put them in order. Note how Chelsea and Chris are tied for 4th. Sugar Ray really took a dip from our previous posting last week, but, I don’t think it would be wise for the odds makers to count him out just yet. Same with […]