DWTS Season 12, Week 3 – Dancing by the Numbers

Oy veh. Another crazy night of scoring. As much as I love Petra as a person, and like Kendra too, you can’t tell me that their dances were that many points better than Ralph or Chris, or even Chelsea. It’s weeks like this where I have to wonder if the judges are trying really, really hard to manipulate who’s going home. Why do I say that? Well…gee, let’s take a look at the scoring. It seems clear, to me. The question is, will it work? 🙂

The Judges Scores and Percentages

As you can see, Wendy is scored WAY below the other contestants – she’s five points below the next celebrities! That is 23,365 votes per million votes cast! I don’t disagree with that at all. It’s the scoring of the other contestants where things get hinky. 🙂 Specifically, Petra and Kendra – overscored, as much as I like both of them. Anyway…

I think that Kirstie Alley’s likely the safest of them all after watching Maks get injured and then soldiering through so brilliantly. Way to Go!! Maks looked to be in pretty serious pain and even at the end of the show he was favoring the one leg and not putting weight on it. I hope like hell he’s not badly hurt, but I worry. Usually the pros on this show don’t let it show as much as Maks did, which makes me think he was really hurting. I’ve got my fingers and toes crossed for him and Kirstie that he’s not hurt too badly. Regardless, I think they are safe.

I also think that Hines, Ralph, Chris and Chelsea are also safe, not so much on the scoring, but on my perception of their popularity combined with the voting. Hines, Ralph and Chris in particular seem like they would be very popular. Hines and Ralph for sure, Chris possibly less so. Chelsea is likely the fourth of the four, but she’s got some time to ramp up the competition. Keep in mind that my analysis has less to do with actual dance ability, but more the scoring combined with my feel at the end of the night for who is connecting with the audience. Of course, the overscoring of Petra and Kendra play into this as well.

Does anyone honestly think that Kendra was 2 points better than Ralph and Chris? How about Petra being 2 points better than Chelsea and 4 points better than Ralph, Chris and Kirstie?? Seriously. Even if you are a die hard fan of Dmitry and Petra…4 points? Don’t get me wrong – I adore Petra. I think she might be an angel. Someone whose outside matches her inside perfectly. And her dance wasn’t bad, or terribly flawed – just not as good, emotionally or technically, as the others. There is no way in HELL that she should have outscored the people she did by as much as she did. Not to mention the fact that her feet came off the floor at least 3 times and Carrie Ann was conveniently blind. I can see missing one lift…but three?? The conspiracy theorist in me is screaming right about now.

Look at the scoring – you’ve got Kendra and Petra who are two not horrible but not great dancers scoring higher than those that I consider to be more entertaining and better dancers, and you’ve got Wendy way down at 15 points. Now, if you think Kendra and Petra are overscored, but others scored about right, it certainly appears that the judges are protecting Kendra and Petra from Wendy’s voting fanbase – giving them a bit of a safety net that Kirstie, Ralph, Hines and Chris may not need. Honestly, I can’t figure any other reason that Petra and Kendra end up towards the top of the pack. I think they are trying to set Wendy up to leave. I don’t have a problem with that, per se, but I do kinda have a problem with them propping up dancers just to keep them around. They did that last season and we all remember what happened there. 🙂

As it stands right now, Wendy would need about 47k votes per million votes cast to beat Petra and about 37.5k votes per million cast to beat Kendra. If Petra and Kendra were scored down at 21 with Kirstie, Ralph and Chris, Wendy would only need 28k plus votes to stay over one of them. And if the stories about her fanbase are to be believed, then she could probably do it. But those extra points provide them some protection – an 19k vote cushion if you will. 🙂

So, now, it appears more likely that Wendy, Ray or Romeo is the one in danger. For Wendy to stay she would need to do one of the following:
– Get 23,400 more votes per million votes cast than Ray, or;
– Get 23,400 more votes per million votes cast than Romeo, OR;
– Get 28,100 more votes per million votes cast than either Kirstie, Ralph or Chris
– And so on with the other contestants upwards of 37,400 votes…

Honestly, I think it’s Wendy’s time to go. I hear too much complaining about her on twitter and in the comments here. Her fanbase would have to be massive and I think tonight we will find out. IF Wendy manages to stay, then it may be Romeo – based solely on his age and the likelihood that his fanbases is a voting one.

We find out tonight!!