DWTS Season 12, Week 4 – Dancing by the Numbers!
Well, the judges are determined to make this show easy to predict, whether that is their intention or not. My question for the week – was Kendra REALLY 3 points below everyone else, in particular Ray, who has worse technique than Kendra but sure seems to be enjoying himself a whole lot more? I dunno. Yeah, she’s annoying, but really? Ray has a leg up in the likeablity factor, for sure, but 3 points?
Anyway, this week it will most likely come down to Ray and Kendra – I would consider anyone else leaving a surprise at this time. I think next week could be VERY interesting if Kendra goes this week. Will the judges continue to make it clear who they think should go? Because next week we venture into the territory of there being decent dancers who have little fanbase to speak of (Petra), versus not great dancers who are charming as hell who happen to also be sports legends (Sugar Ray) – then a whole lot of uncertainty in the middle. Is Chris really hitting it off with the audience like I think he is, in addition to being a pretty good dancer? Is Kirstie as popular as I suspect she is, despite having mishap after mishap on the dance floor?? Things could get very sticky next week and if they are too harsh with Ray they could send Petra packing on a Ray-sympathy vote – and if they continue to ridiculously inflate her scores? I might have to start tweeting them. 🙂 Anyway, let’s look at the scoring for this week:
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Place | Celebrity | Score | Percentage |
1. | Chelsea | 26 | 12.62 |
2. | Hines | 25 | 12.14 |
3. | Ralph | 25 | 12.14 |
4. | Chris | 23 | 11.17 |
5. | Petra | 23 | 11.17 |
6. | Romeo | 23 | 11.17 |
7. | Kirstie | 22 | 10.68 |
8. | Ray | 21 | 10.19 |
9. | Kendra | 18 | 8.74 |
As you can see, Kendra is 3 points below her nearest competitor. Normally on this show, 3 points isn’t a huge deal. Well, it is if your name is Kendra. People who are popular with the E! set don’t have a stellar track record of being vote getters – of course, none so far have been great dancers either. 🙂 So, while those 3 points only translates to 14.6k votes per million votes cast, that’s a pretty high number when going against Sugar Ray Leonard. How does Kendra stack up against all the other dancers? What would it take for her to stay? One of the following would have to happen:
– Kendra gets 14,600 more votes per million votes cast than Ray, or;
– Kendra gets 19,450 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie, or;
– Kendra gets 24,300 more votes per million votes cast than Petra/Chris/Romeo, or;
– Kendra gets 34k more votes per million votes cast than Ralph/Hines,OR;
– Kendra gets 38,900 more votes per million votes cast than Chelsea.
As you can see, from the above, it’s relatively unlikely that anyone other than Kendra or Ray goes home. Why not Kirstie? Well, she’s Kirstie and I think she’s winning hearts with who she is and not so much with her dancing. For her to go home, both Kendra and Ray would have to beat her in votes by the required spread. Now, if she doesn’t do a clean dance next week, we may be having a different discussion. At the end of the day, Kendra needs to beat at least Ray and I don’t see that happening. If she does much better with voters than I expect, I think Ray will go home because I don’t think Ray can catch Kirstie. If Kendra gets lucky and does much better with the voters than Ray does, in order for Ray to stick around he needs the following:
– Ray needs 4,900 more votes per million votes cast than Kirstie,OR;
– 9,750 more votes per million votes cast than Petra/Chris/Romeo,OR;
– 19,450 more votes per million votes cast than Ralph/Hines.
Yeah. I don’t see that last one happening either. Looking at the other two sets of numbers, however, you will see why I think next week will be very, very interesting indeed – unless the judges continue to force a big spread between the pack and the weakest dancer. That’s not a whole lot of votes, statistically, between Ray and Kirstie, Petra, Chris and Romeo. Who would be the possible loser in that fight other than Ray? Petra and Romeo, I think. Provided that it goes like I think it will tonight, we’ll have that discussion next week. 🙂
So, who’s going home? I’m saying Kendra, and probably easily. Although I’ve been wrong before, so It could be Ray instead. But my money’s on Kendra.
Good points. I think you are correct. And you’re right – the next few weeks are where it gets challenging (and more fun) once the most obvious candidates have been removed.
Thanks Heidi!! I’m so glad you do these posts. I think you are right for who is going home. If it’s anyone but Kendra, I’ll be peeved (well, with an exception to Mark and Chelsea. But, I doudt very much that could happen.) It scares me Kirstie is third to the bottom too.
Here’s to tonight all!
Several Maks fans at twitter are worried it’s Kirstie. OMG, I am sooo nervous now!!!! 🙁 *holds on tight to Heidi’s numbers because she’s usually right!!!
I love dancing with the numbers. Thanks.
I enjoyed Ray and Romeo last night, so im hoping they stay a little longer. As far as Kendra, see ya.
Im afraid for Kirstie, seems to me she is losing steam. If she doesnt get it together she may be sent packing sooner than later. Dont know if she can last, as Len said last night to Hines, its only going to get tougher.
I realize this is completely unscientific, but I’ve seen a few polls online about who people are voting for (posts on MB really) and it gave me every confidence that Kirstie is safe – but I saw almost no one pulling for Kendra. She really turned a lot of people off over the course of the season, and last night was the worst. I’m betting she goes home.
I bet they put Kirstie in the ‘in jeopardy’ red-light tonight – just to shake up the fanbases as little bit. Didn’t they do that to Jen/Derek after Rock Week?
Do you think they will try not to let the same thing happen like last year? Voting off good dancers when it is not their time? Why is kendra scored so low?
Do you think they will try not to let the same thing happen like last year? Voting off good dancers when it is not their time? Why is kendra scored so low? It should be ray.
Georgia, give the site a minute or two to post your comment – sometimes it takes a bit. I deleted two comments that were pretty much the same as the two I left up.
Thing is, they are overscoring dancers that aren’t that great, so they’re kinda cheating the system. Instead of overscoring dancers they are worried about, they should focus more on giving out scores to the bad dancers that reflect those dances. Last season they were handing out 7’s and 8’s to Bristol on dances where anyone else would have gotten 6’s or 5’s.
Thanks Heidi! I just love DBT Numbers. It does make me realize how much influence the judges have by over- scoring though.
I’m with Courtney’s mom. If Heidi and the numbers say it’s Kendra going home, then it’s Kendra! (I think!) Well fingers crossed anyway!
I’m kinda thinking it could be Petra. She’s sweet and everything and her dancing is ok but does she really have a fan base.
I see no reason why it WOULDN’T be Kendra. She’s at the bottom of the leaderboard (which doesn’t help but doesn’t mean everything), but her attitude has been pretty bad here lately and people from E! don’t exactly have the best streak in the world…
Okay, I will agree… It’s going to be Kendra, and I am almost afraid of what she will say…. Over the last few seasons, the Wild Card on the team has been Louis, but this season, he’s really restrained himself, and Kendra is the Wild Card…. And she isn’t gaining fans this way.
I doubt they will put Chris under the Red Light of Doom, because they did last week.
Kendra and Ray are definitely the last 2 of the bottom tier dancers, and as much as I want to see him continue, he could be nearing the end of his journey…. But not without gaining many admirers for his charm….
Middle of the pack? That is hard to say… The rest are all pretty close!
HEIDI!!!!! Can we have a post-elimination wrap up post, to try to sort out the plusses and minusses of the remaining contestants, so we can try to figure out where each really stand? Not counting the judges in this, they don’t fairly judge and score quite often… 🙂
No tweets from Tom or Brooke about a “shocking” elimination. Last season at least one of them did that when The Hoff and Audrina were cut. Maybe that’s a sign?
Sure Lori – I can think of something. I hope. 🙂 I used to do a Tuesday night post saying how we did in our predictions – I haven’t done it yet because it’s been so easy.
Dee, Petra doesn’t have a fanbase – but I don’t think Kendra does either and she had a way worse score. Next week? Petra could be in trouble.
If you want help, I don’t twitter, but you have my gmail email… And as long as my battery holds out in my iPod, I’ll be available. And since Courtney is away, I’m sure Vogue could help too?
I think it will be Kendra. She’s getting less likeable each week. She doesn’t have the determination and drive to stay in the competition. Louis is partially to blame because of the choreography.
It’s amazing how well I know this show. It funny how Tom tried to play like Chelsea and Mark were in the bottom when they were in the fake bottom. When Tom mentioned they weren’t necc the bottom 2.Go figure to boost more there votes and Marks ego. Eww Poor Sugar Ray I liked him and him and Ann. Well next week should be fun with american theme.
What?
Thanks, Heidi,
I love these posts! Thanks so much for doing them.
Has anyone ever seen any info on just how many votes are received generally? I mean is it 5 million or 10 million or 40 million?
Kirstie has almost 800,000 twitter followers who appear very active. Even if just 100,000 vote 10 times, that’s a million votes. I know the number of allowed votes vary, but making a point.