DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Pre-Season Elimination Breakdown
I’m BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACK!!!
Ok that was quite immature of me, but seriously. After the kind of hiatus that I’ve had full of drama what do you expect from me. 🙂 Anyway, the cast has been announced, we know the pairings let’s find out what the numbers say they would fare.
If you’re new to how I calculate the Pre-Season Elimination Predictions please look at Season 11’s Who Has the Edge Part 1, Part 2 as well as Season 12 for information, one of these off-seasons I’ll write a more thorough analysis for you all… but until then, settle for the short form.
Below I’ve taken the time to rank the breakdowns within the following categories: AGE, OCCUPATION and PROFESSIONAL PARTNER so you have an idea of what variables I use before applying them to Season 14’s cast. So here’s a look at how everything ranks as of last season:
AGE is broken down by decades, starting with the teens. It would seem though in general as you get older, the lower the rank (on average), somehow those in their 60s tend to fare rather well… and who knows why? These include George Hamilton, Jerry Springer, John Ratzenberger, Susan Lucci and Kirstie Alley. Maybe this is a reflection of the voting public? Your guess is as good as mine. The age groups in bold are the ones being represented on the show. The ranks go from highest ranking to lowest ranking:
1: Teens
2: 20s
3: 60s
4: 30s
5: 40s
6: 70s
7: 50s
8: 80s
OCCUPATION is a trickier category to break down, because there are a lot of crossover celebrities, or those that happen to be multi-talented. So I try to categorize celebrities based on what they are most known for, not necessarily their most recent occupation (Billy Ray being a Country Singer as opposed to Disney Star). I also separated the Olympians, NBA players and NFL players from all other athletes. Entertainers are those that actually have a little dance background and entertain with not just their voice (Singer) but with their overall personality on stage (imagine Donny and Marie Osmond), Band Member is anyone that happened to be part of a band in their time (98 Degrees, NSync, Spice Girls).
1: NFL
2: Olympian
3: Disney
4: Band Member
5: Entertainer
6: Soap Opera Star
7: Singer
8: Actor
9: Athlete
10: Host
11: Actress
12: Reality TV Star
13: Boxer
14: Other
15: NBA
16: Model
17: Comedian
PROFESSIONAL PARTNERs, whether we like it or not, play a major role in how their celebrity partner does on the show. Being that this is the 14th season of Dancing with the Stars, at this point in time the professional dancers already coming into the season with their own fanbases (Maksim Chmerkovskiy, Derek Hough anyone?). Below are how the professional dancers fared on this show with how many seasons they’ve “competed” on the show. Not included are professional dancers that have permanently left the show.
1: Derek Hough (8 seasons)
2: Julianne Hough (5 seasons)
3: Cheryl Burke (12 seasons)
4: Tristan MacManus (1 season)
5: Maksim Chmerkovskiy (11 seasons)
6: Karina Smirnoff (10 seasons)
7: Kym Johnson (10 seasons)
8: Lacey Schwimmer (6 seasons)
9: Mark Ballas (9 seasons)
10: Louis van Amstel (8 seasons)
11: Chelsie Hightower (5 seasons)
12: Dmitry Chaplin (3 seasons)
13: Tony Dovolani (12 seasons)
14: Anna Trebunskaya (8 seasons)
15: Corky Ballas (2 seasons)
16: Ashly Costa (4 seasons)
17: Jonathan Roberts (7 seasons)
18: Val Chmerkovskiy (1 season)
19: Peta Murgatroyd (1 season)
Stayed tuned as my next post would take all of the above rankings and see how the numbers would rank Season 14’s Dancing with the Stars cast.
Marinaya, you ROCK! I LOVE THESE and I can’t wait for your Rankings post. I look so forward to those every season. You are mostly right too for how they turn out.
Pretty cool. Numbers are right up my alley. 😉
Heidi – Don’t I know it. =)
Jonathan’s danced on the show 7 seasons? Really shows i haven’t been watching for too long (since season 9), i’ve only seen him on the show once.
Izzy109 – Jonathan danced the following seasons w/ the following celeb partners:
– Season 1: Rachel Hunter (Model)
– Season 2: Giselle Fernandez (Host)
– Season 4: Heather Mills (Other – Paul McCartney’s ex-wife)
– Season 5: Marie Osmond (Entertainer)
– Season 6: Monica Seles (Athlete – Tennis)
– Season 8: Belinda Carlisle (Band Member – the Go Go’s)
– Season 9: Macy Gray (Singer)
What was your method of ranking the professional dancers?
I know the number of seasons the pro has been on is a factor, but why would Tristan (who has been on only one season and finished 5th) be ranked higher than Kym and Mark (both of whom have been to the finals four times and each won twice)?
Because he’s not had the opportunity to be an early exit. Even normalized that’s going to put him artificially high. By the same token, if he’s the second one out this season, he will drop like a rock. I’m not marianya, but as resident number geek number 2, I have seen how she comes up with her numbers and I couldn’t find any fault with it.
@Cali: Yeah, exactly what Heidi said.
If I remember right (don’t quote me though!) Kym used to be a bit higher a few seasons ago but then she had the Hoff and since she was the first pro eliminated that dropped her status a bit.
Mark didn’t do as well with Kim K and Shannon Doherty so that brought him down a bit too.
Yeah, I think we’ve talked about it, but there really isn’t a perfect way to rank the pros based on how they finish, since they haven’t all been on every season, and since there haven’t been the same number of couples on every season. I remember when Marianya did this a few seasons back, and Dmitry was in I think 4th place – his 2nd place finish with Mya (in a cast of 16 couples) seemed to artificially inflate his percentage, even though he had only been on the show one other season and been an early exit. Really, the more seasons a pro has been on the show, the truer I think their rank becomes – I think pros like Cheryl, Derek, Mark, Kym, Maks, Tony, Karina, & Anna are probably about right, but for pros that have been on only a few seasons (Lacey, Chelsie, Dmitry, Peta, Val, Tristan), I think they need a few seasons more under their belt before we really start to see what they’re made of.
Courtney and Heidi are both correct – I had to normalize every season into a 10-placement scale… so some seasons that have more or less couples will artificially inflate and deflate rankings depending on when they leave the competition in the end.
The more seasons a professional partner has done… the more accurate their placement becomes… Still… considering all the variables, this is the best that I could do.
Marianya, I’m looking forward to how you figure all this out because I’m surprised to see Karina higher than Kym. Since Season 7, Kym has been in the final two every other season she has been on the show (that means we skip Season 10 since she wasn’t on that season. So it’s Season 7, 9 and we skipped 10 and went back to 11 but not making the finals then made the finals in 12). Again, I’m looking forward to how you figure this out because I think Kym has a quite good record, especially when she brought so many of her “quirky” partners further than most people thought. And I agree with Courtney! The more seasons the pro have done, the more accurate it is although I can’t figure out how Tristan made it that high in the rankings since he’s only done one season.
[…] that you’ve read / seen where everything ranks at the conclusion of Season 13, how does all that math apply to the Season 14 […]