DWTS Season 14 Stats Class: Pre-Season Elimination Predictions
Now that you’ve read / seen where everything ranks at the conclusion of Season 13, how does all that math apply to the Season 14 celebrities?
SHERRI SHEPHERD
Age: 40s
Occupation: Host
Professional Partner: Valentin Chmerkovskiy
Overall Rank: 12 ( 9 – 10 – 11 )
Comments: She’s been heavily promoting herself to get onto the show for the past few seasons (a la Florence Henderson). So this really came as no surprise when she was announced as part of the cast. Having a relatively “new” pro for a partner doesn’t help her much. Those that are known for hosting duties in recent memory have been all over the spectrum depending on the combination. But ABC loves the cross promotion, so with her being part of The View allows ABC to bring in Barbara Walters, Whoopi Goldberg, etc into the audience for Dancing with the Stars as a way to bring A-listers into the fold (a la David Arquette and Courtney Cox Arquette or Kirstie Alley with John Travolta). Granted the cross promotion only works for as long as she’s on the show… so we’ll see how long this lasts.
Conclusion: I don’t necessarily agree with the numbers but this also depends on how everyone else has done.
DONALD DRIVER
Age: 30s
Occupation: NFL
Professional Partner: Peta Murgatroyd
Overall Rank: 11 ( 3 – 1 – 12 )
Comments: NFL players typically do rather well on the show, how I have no idea, maybe because the guys are so bored when the NFL season is over that they turn onto Dancing with the Stars to see which NFL player will be on the show (they’ve been on nine of the thirteen seasons thus far). In the seasons that an NFL star was part of the cast they have placed either at the midway point or higher, how I cannot say… I swear I think the male demographic is much higher than people may at first believe it to be. Two of the winners were NFL stars (Emmitt Smith and Hines Ward). So I’ll be interested to see how far Donald goes in this particular season. Again having a relatively “new” pro doesn’t seem to help his numbers any.
Conclusion: This is another rank that I don’t necessarily agree with the numbers… I guess we’ll wait and see.
MARTINA NAVRATILOVA
Age: 50s
Occupation: Athlete (Tennis)
Professional Partner: Tony Dovolani
Overall Rank: 10 ( 11 – 9 – 9 )
Comments: Athletes – outside of the Olympians – don’t typically fare well and as a tennis player, she is placed firmly in the “athletes” category. The last time there was a tennis player in the cast it was Monica Seles in Season 6 with Jonathan Roberts and she didn’t last, leaving the season within the first couple of weeks. I’m not saying that Martina would follow the same path, because other athletes (Helio – racecar driver, Ty Murray – rodeo, Louie Vito – snowboarding, Hope Solo – Soccer) fared well… Now add Tony into the equation, who hasn’t had the best track record either (especilaly in recent seasons) and it still doesn’t look good. Her age group hasn’t fared well on the show (excepting Jennifer Grey and Donny Osmond)…
Conclusion: I’ll agree with her being ranked relatively low… just how low I don’t know.
JACK WAGNER
Age: 50s
Occupation: Soap Opera Actor
Professional Partner: Anna Trebunskaya
Overall Rank: 9 ( 11 – 3 – 10 )
Comments: I totally fangirled when I realized that he’s going to be on the show. Not because he was/is on a soap opera (The Bold and the Beautiful – one of my favorites) but because he played the title role of Dr Jekyll / Mr Hyde in Frank Wildhorn‘s musical production of Jekyll and Hyde (he did a FAR BETTER than David Hasselhoff), in fact I have a CD of him singing somewhere. In any case, yes, I totally fangirled and as thus I can’t really keep a very objective opinion about him but I’ll try. Soap Opera stars for some odd reason tend to fare well on Dancing with the Stars, frequently going past the midway point of the season (Aiden Turner being the exception). So for me I would rather put him in as an entertainer, but since most people would know him as a soap opera star… he’s stuck, which isn’t bad because soap opera stars tend to do reasonably well on this show for some reason (must be the eye candy).
Conclusion: So me being me and selfish I’m wanting to see him to go past the midway point of the show so I could drool enjoy his dancing
MELISSA GILBERT
Age: 40s
Occupation: Actress
Professional Partner: Maksim Chmerkovskiy
Overall Rank: 8 ( 9 – 12 – 4 )
Comments: Other than Laura Ingalls from the Little House on the Prairie series is there any other iconic roles that Melissa is known for? I know she’s been a fixture in made for tv movies for most of her life, but that doesn’t help someone that doesn’t really watch tv in general (aka moi). Nevertheless actresses in general don’t usually fare well on the show with less than one-third of all actresses going beyond the midway point of the competition… and they tended to be extremely iconic actresses in their adult lives (Jennifer Grey, Kirstie Alley, Jennie Garth, Jane Seymour, Pamela Anderson to name a few). Having Maksim as a partner can be a good thing since overall he has a stronger track record than most pros (outside of Denise Richards and Debi Mazar).
Conclusion: Honestly for me, she’s up the in air… I’m very much on the fence with her.
KATHERINE JENKINS
Age: 30s
Occupation: Singer (Opera)
Professional Partner: Mark Ballas
Overall Rank: 7 ( 3 – 4 – 7 )
Comments: Now if Katherine Jenkins was Vittorio Grigolo I would have jumped on the next plane to Los Angeles and stayed there for the duration of the show just to watch him. Fortunately for Vittorio and my wallet, he’s not going to be doing something like Dancing with the Stars anytime soon, which come to think of it I don’t know why Katherine would participate in the U.S. Dancing with the Stars as opposed to the U.K.’s Strictly Come Dancing… unless she’s trying to break into the U.S. music scene in some way. I mean Dancing with the Stars has been known to be the launch pad of rekindling dying careers, creating new ones, or salvaging careers, so it’s not exactly far off the mark to say that out of everyone in the cast this is probably more of a publicity stunt than anything else, maybe.
Conclusion: Overall she has a semi-decent ranking mix, she’s a bit of an unknown in general. So I’m going to withhold judgment and just say I hope to see her last for a while.
JALEEL WHITE
Age: 30s
Occupation: Actor
Professional Partner: Kym Johnson
Overall Rank: 6 ( 3 – 7 – 6 )
Comments: Ok, I’m a nerd, so I fangirled. In case you were living under a major rock in the 90s you should know of the iconic character Steve Urkel from Family Matters… or his alter ego: Stefan Urquelle *drools*. Anyway, actors in general tend to do better than actresses, I have no idea why… that’s what the numbers tell me. Maybe it’s the eye candy, maybe they are more endearing to the watching demographic, maybe it’s a bit of all three. In any case, he’s most likely going to come in with a stronger fanbase than most. I’m really looking forward to this pairing, Kym could totally use his huge arsenal of acting chops to get the character of the dances (a la Donny Osmond), it’s just the matter of can he dance?
Conclusion: I’m hoping/thinking that he’ll be lasting past the midway point.
GAVIN DEGRAW
Age: 30s
Occupation: Singer
Professional Partner: Karina Smirnoff
Overall Rank: 5 ( 3 – 4 – 5 )
Comments: This is a classic example of someone trying to rekindle or salvage their dying career. I don’t remember any songs sung by him, but I’ve never been one for the U.S. mainstream music to begin with. With a few exceptions here and there, anyone that made their name via a singing career tend to stay in the middle of the pack going towards the midway point of the season or maybe just passing it by the week. Where would Gavin land in this normalization? I’m thinking he’ll just miss the midway point… but with Karina kicking his butt, we might be in for a surprise… especially since Karina did Aaron Carter well. Keep in mind that Karina’s stock shot up with her win last season. But she tends to have a stronger track record than most pros (not counting Steve Wozniak). Every singer that Karina has worked with has placed 5th in their season (Billy Ray, Mario, Aaron Carter) so I’m actually laughing that the numbers came out the same way.
Comments Addendum: Ok… so I fanned a few flames when I mentioned that I was under the belief that Gavin was trying to salvage his career. I personally have not heard of him in several years and felt that he had fallen off the face of the planet. So I am going to retrack my original statement about his career… and just say that this show could possibly be something of a promotion for him… since his latest album came out last year and he is currently on tour… or he’s just doing it for the sake of doing it.
Conclusion: Gavin has a lot going for him numbers-wise, as long as his personality meshes with Karina’s he should be ok, don’t know how long he’d last though.
GLADYS KNIGHT
Age: 60s
Occupation: Singer (Legend)
Professional Partner: Tristin MacManus
Overall Rank: 4 ( 2 – 4 – 3 )
Comments: On the other side of the singer spectrum we have a legend in our midst, a last minute addition if rumors are to be believed. Oddly enough celebrities in their 60s actually fare better than most other age groups (outside of the obvious Teens and those in their 20s) just barely inching past those in their 30s. Being a legend, Gladys has a lot going for her, a built in fanbase, musicality and of all the “new” professional dancers she landed the most successful of the three.
Conclusion: So I could see her heading towards the midway point on the show, but past it? The jury’s out.
ROSHON FAGEN
Age: 20s
Occupation: Disney
Professional Partner: Chelsie Hightower
Overall Rank: 3 ( 1 – 2 – 8 )
Comments: ENOUGH WITH THE DISNEY STARS ALREADY! I know ABC and Disney are tied at the hip, but really? Another classic example of ABC cross promoting we have the representative from the Disney channel. Not only that, by being in his 20s he has youth and energy by his side to go far in the season. My speculation is that ABC is wanting the youth ratings so they are bringing in someone from the Disney channel to boost said ratings (especially since they will be competing against The Voice that overlaps in the 8:00pm – 9:00pm timeslot). I wouldn’t be surprised if TPTB are hoping for another “Kyle Massey” in Roshon… just sayin’.
Conclusion: All that being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Roshon continues the Disney Channel strong streak, he might have that Disney spirit that his predecessors had to get far on the show.
WILLIAM LEVY
Age: 30s
Occupation: Actor
Professional Partner: Cheryl Burke
Overall Rank: 2 ( 3 – 7 – 2 )
Comments: Not only is ABC trying to stretch their age demographic, they bring in one of the hottest guys from Telemundo. I know absolutely nothing about him so I had to ask my Mexican friend who was bound to know more about William than I did… his take on him: “He is so very hunky and has a spectacular sense of humor. Once he went onto a talk show and just started undressing stating ‘this is what you all came to see anyway, right?’…” Well I guess we just discovered our new eye candy for the season, or (hell) he might be the next “Gilles Marini” for all I care at this point.
Conclusion: The jury’s out, but if he could dance, meld with his partner and keep that (theoretical) sense of humor up… I could see this placement happening.
MARIA MENOUNOS
Age: 30s
Occupation: Host
Professional Partner: Derek Hough
Overall Rank: 1 ( 3 – 10 – 1 )
Comments: My evil mind wanted to call this couple the “Barbie and Ken” of Season 14 only in reverse since Maria is a brunette and Derek’s a blonde(-ish), but they do make a pretty couple. Maria has a sense of humor, is a television host, people know her… so yeeeeeaaaah. Not much to say here on my end, except… She has Derek for a partner who brings out the best from his partners and with the strongest track record of all the pros. Her age group also fares well on the show… Her personality does shine rather well on the red carpet, however, and that should translate well on the dance floor.
Conclusion: By the sheer power of Derek she’ll get far, her combo can be considered strong. Win though? I’m not sure.
Marianya, you amaze!! I just love these and couldn’t wait to see how your numbers came out. You have a proven and successful track record too (as well as Heidi! Court knows her stuff too!).
As for the couples, I’m shocked that Katherine and Melissa are so low. I have a feeling they will place in the top 3 or 4 somewhere. I think William, Roshon and Jaleel are going to do well too. I don’t know….but, I think this might be the tightest competition we’ve ever had and each elimination is going to be painful. I love this cast!!!
Well, Maria has nothing to offer… Much like Audrina and Kristin Cavallari. Of course she’ll have judges on her corner, must count for half .
I just hope Katherine and Mark come out and impress.
Every season we have a celeb that surprises us right out of the gate. This year should be no different.
Love the numbers, lets see how well they hold up. I have a feeling we will have a few surprises. 🙂
I actually like that they include the Disney channel stars. Yes I know it’s strictly for the younger crowd and the fact disney owns ABC but for me it promotes dancing and hopefully more young people will want to learn how to dance whether it’s ballroom or any other form.
Apparently Gavin Degraw isn’t a dancer. Also he is touring next 2 weeks all over the country with the concerts almost every day. I don’t aspect him to do well on DWTS. But “dying carrier” and Gavin definitely don’t go together. His recent album “Not over you” fall 2011, became Platinum in USA. He is a current star
Great work with the numbers Marianya, thanks!
Even though these numbers are weird to me but I understand how it works so…
I have to say that some places really surprised me but…as long as I’m seeing Maria and Derek at number one, I guess I won’t complain about them 😛
Sorry, meant to be “I dont expect…”
*Bows To The Number Goddess*
Marianya:
I am new posting this season. Your previous number posts were a big draw for me.
Math is not my forte. Knowing I have 10 fingers and toes is good enough for me. Anyone who even attempts something like this earns my immediate respect.
Much thanks to you and the rest of the Pure Team. You make DWTS so much more than your average TV show! Xoxo
I agree w most of these but I think the final 5 are going to be Maria and Derek, Roshon and Chelsie, melisa and Maks, sherri and val, and jack and anna. I think they will be them sot fun to watch and those cntestants ususally make it to the top 5 (ex. Niecy Nash, etc)
If the numbers turn out to be correct (and coming from a family of accountants I have learned never to doubt numbers ever lol) we are going to have an interesting season 🙂
I already think Jaleel and Kym will be in the semi-, if not the finals, and thats without even seeing him dance. The only question in my mind is, Who will be dancing alongside with them?
Katherine who??
Gavin and Karina I would rank as earlier out, I just don’t get the entertainment vibe from him. He seems kind of boring.
I agree with Vogue, This is a tough one!
William is an unknown, if he wants to place the same as Gilles, he has his work cut out for him. I don’t see it.
If I had to guess the final three I would say Roshon and Chelsie, Maks and Melisa and Sherri and Val.
Thanks for this great post Marianya! I am not sure what to think yet, but I do think Roshon and Chelsie will do very well bc he has dance training/experience and they are the young and cute couple. Of course I am rooting for my team, Maria and Derek, to go far … but I am gonna have to see her dance first. I am encouraged bc Maria told Adam Carolla that she has never taken dance lessons in her life, but she does have rhythm and feels she can dance. =)
The final 3 for me? That would be Jaleel & Kym, Maria & Derek, and William & Cheryl… and I’m hoping that Jack & Anna make the semi-final. Would also like to see Katharine go far – maybe Markie will pull his head out of his you-know-what this season and actually make this about his celeb, instead of about Markie….. Naaaaah, what am I thinking? 😉 😉
Oh, Jaleel & Kym for the win! 😀
If i had to guess right now…i would have to say finale of all males with william & cheryl, roshon & chelsie, jaleel & kym with a tie for derek & maria or maks & melissa or donald & peta just missing out.
That was hard to pick…bottom line there is going to be some good dancing and stiff competition this season
I think there will be a lot fewer “good” dancers than we are all thinking right now. I think it will be more about fanbases. With the demographic of the show, I think alot of the people who vote will be torn between 2 (maybe 3) couples and all that vote splitting will make for some nasty outcomes.
@mimi f acworth: I agree. There are so many likeable people there and everyone has their fav pro so most peopel are going to split their votes. I have split my votes fro a couple of seasons now and all my favs (with exception of Jenifer grey) got eliminated so it could hurt contestants in the long run. Saying that, I used to vote for Idol and the same issue made people like chris daughtry get eliminated.
I think the #1 spot is “spot on”, I do expect Derek and Maria to win, she would have to really have two left feet not to
I do hope that Anna T. will have a good season as well, I just love her.
Although I was born and raised in Ukraine, I absolutely do not care for the C. brothers, they can go at any time, Val is good in the pro numbers, but I really do not care for another bully in the competition, hopefully Sherri will keep him in check
I think the numbers are spot on as well.
Oh, don’t get me wrong…I soooo hope she is spot on and the track record is quite good. I was just making some additional observations. I think you have to see how they handle the “live” aspect and how they do with both styles of dance b4 you can have much of an idea how anyone will do. And then after that, how well they do with very short periods of time to learn a whole new routine. To me those are the 3 biggest personal factors. How the judges are, how people vote etc…out of your hands but those 3 things are crucial.
ITA with Mimi and want to add that it also depends if you have a good or a bad Monday night.
Great numbers post Marianya! It’ll be fun to see how how the crazy human side of things affects the cold hard numbers.
Could be the three 2nd-season pros are skewing the results a bit because I agree with your assessment that Sherri and Donald’s placements seem low.
I think you all are underestimating Donald Driver. The guy can move and Packer fans are by far the most loyal. This is the talk of Wisconsin. I think he is going to do really really well.
@alicia – Like I said, I don’t really keep up with U.S. mainstream music, so I didn’t know he is still relevant. My apologies… so maybe doing this show is more of a promotion to him? (I’ll update the post in a bit).
@JennJenn – Awww shucks. **blushes** Heidi does a lot of numbers work too post performances. While I just do predictions. I apologize for falling off the radar last season, life kind of took over.
@vin – that’s a BIG IF… I’m planning to put up the post to see how my current calculations would have “predicted” previous seasons… just for the hell of it.
@Sandy – I agree with you in regards to William, but after my friend’s “assessment” of him… I’ll give him a chance… kind of.
@Margaret – I wouldn’t think that the numbers are “spot on”… I’d like to think that it’s close… but there are a lot of intangibles in play here.
@Ali – The numbers brought Donald low… I think he’ll place higher to be honest. NFL players tend to place high in general… this might be Peta’s season to shine a bit more than last season.
Thanks so much Marianya! So interesting! I’m surprised with some of the placements, but numbers don’t lie. May I ask what your track record was last year?
Maddy, why do you say that Maria has nothing to offer? Not following that comment at all. 🙂 I think she has more to offer than at least half of the contestants.
I completely agree with Donald’ place in this post – these are predictions based on available data, and the only data avilable for his professional partner is that she left first last season; I do however think that he will end up staying for much longer than the numbers tell us today.
It is intersting how Maria draws different opinions from different people – some think she is nothing special (I do not know – smart, funny, gorgeous, sexy, you mean you need something else?), others – like my husband, say Derek always gets the best partners, LOL.
Thank you Marianya, great post, certianly food for thought.
@Meggie – The track record was all over the place in some cases and close to spot on in others… let me show you. Below are the official placements of Season 13’s celebs… the second number would be their predicted placement up to the end of Season 12 (since those were the only numbers available). The last number is how they would have ranked with the data from Season 13… see how a lot of it changes?
12: Ron Artest – Original: 9; Current: 11
11: Elisabetta Canalis – Original: 8; Current: 12
10: Kristin Cavallari – Original: 4; Current: 7
9: Chynna Phillips – Original: 7; Current: 8
8: Carson Kressley – Original: 10; Current: 6
7: Chaz Bono – Original: 11; Current: 10
6: David Arquette – Original: 2; Current: 3
5: Nancy Grace – Original: 12; Current: 9
4: Hope Solo – Original: 5; Current: 5
3: Ricki Lake – Original: 6; Current: 1
2: Rob Kardashian – Original: 3; Current: 4
1: JR Martinez – Original: 1; Current: 2
So yeah… a bit all over the place… still fun to speculate!
I love this site. Its the only place to be, before, during and after the DWTS seasons. Its one-stop shopping! Thank you, Marianya, Heidi, Courtney, and Vogue for all of your hard work and dedication.. 🙂
Now, Can this season get started already… Geez.
“Heidi does a lot of numbers work too post performances. While I just do predictions”
Yes, but Heidi seems to be a “Princess” and I felt for all this doin you deserved a title! 😉
No apology is needed! Welcome back home! 😀
Btw: I think we’re gonna be in for a few controversial surprises with it being such a tight placement/cast. Everyone better come out of the gate with their A-Game, not just to be noticed but to keep us wanting to see more of them. Otherwise the exit door will be patting their backsides rather than the judges paddles!
Gavin can be the next Nicole. Virtually unknown to DWTS audience. It brought her to next level cause she was nonexistent after PCD until her stint on DWTS although her career is starting to fail again. Pair him with one of popular pros (Karina) and watch the magic happen. Watch CA cry those fake tears of joy over a good but not fantasic dance. Watch Bruno stand up and shout his poorly written analogies. Watch Len calmly give a thumbs up. And of course Brookebot 2.0 will talk about how she was on the show and won almost 4 years ago and 6 seasons ago.
@Sweet Troll of Mine: OK Then…….clearly you aren’t a Nicole fan.
Love the post Marianya and love the result the numbers offered you… i hope with all my heart the numbers are right! now…
# Maddy Maria has nothing to offer? you have to explain that to me…my mind says the complete opposite…ok..she is not a dancer…but she is an accomplished TV personality, a beautiful, hardworking, determined and funny woman. If i would have all that to offer..i would be satisfied.. just saying.. then how could you tell “Of course she’ll have judges on her corner, must count for half” .. based on what…and that of course means that half of Derek*s win are because of the judges… right!!
# Sweet Troll of Mine – no way…. the first difference i feel is that Nicole worked his ..soul off for that show…Gavin seems to have a lot of other plans…and Nicole*s carrier is ok…she will be touring this year..not to worry..
Troll, you are the one who is “unbearable”. Go find somewhere else to be mean and “troll”. Trolling is not welcome here.
TY Vogue….that was really too much…
I’m comparing Maria with Kristin Cavallari, Geogrge Clooney”s ex.
YW!! 😉 xxx
Maddy, do you possibly mean Elizabetta Canalis?
Maddy, just remember a lot of people felt that Joanna Krupa wouldn’t or couldn’t dance good or have appeal, etc. too and they were wrong.
LOL Vogue – every season you think ALL the couples will be in the top 3 or 4. 🙂 Very kind hearted.
LOLLLL! 😉
I’m with mimi – I think that we will be surprised when everyone dances and this season turns out to be like all the others. Some great, some good, some okay and some SUCK. 🙂 It’s just a question of who goes where. I can easily see the more well known larger fanbase people (Gladys, Melissa, Jack and Jaleel) seriously splitting the main demographic causing a shocking elimination. It’s all about the numbers, people.
Er, my “title” is an inside joke, JennJenn. Pretty much John’s fault.
You guys are wasting way too much time on Maddy — you know how she gets. 🙂
Thanks Marianya for the added information! Very interesting! Some of them are pretty right on!
Maddy, I would put Maria more in the Erin Andrews category over Kristin or Audrina. Both came off a bit vapid. Maria seems more goofy and the type of girl guys like and want to hang out with. I got that similar vibe from Erin. Both are reporters. Maria fits more in the Brooke/Erin over reality types like Kristin or Audrina.
Not sure now Maria will do because this season seems competitive.
Wow. Trolls have REALLY bad grammar. I guess that’s why they live under bridges. 🙂
@Meggie – No problem… like I said… one of these off-seasons I’ll put up a post showing how these predictions work in more detail and how the numbers would have predicted previous seasons… I think it would be fun… =)
I remember back in Season 11 the numbers placed Kyle Massey as first and Bristol Palin as third and I got a lot of flack for that (kind of like how the numbers put Rob Kardashian pretty high last season)… well I win! But I’ll be the first to admit that numbers are not always correct and they can be a crap shoot… but still fun nonetheless.
Heidi – Thanks for the insight! Luv it – You need to keep it!
As for this season being the same as others, I do agree to a point, however I think that especially with this cast, you are gonna have one shot to bring it. If you don’t, you are going to find precious few that will say “let’s give them another week” or a “wait and see” pass.
Fantastic post as usual from this fantastic site. My money is on Derek for a win. Of course that may be wishful thinking since we haven’t even seen Maria really dance yet. But, fingers crossed!! And I have to say I am totally fangirled over Jack Wagner – can’t wait to see how he does!
Marianya, I’m a little confused. How did you reach these numbers, since they don’t appear to be how *you* think the couples will place? I’m guessing it has something to do with the numbers in the parentheses, but I don’t know what those represent. Is one of the numbers the average, or maybe the last, ranking of the/a celebrity in that category (i.e. athlete, actress, actor, Disney)? Could you explain?
Also, I know very little about Jack Wagner, but I’ve been noticing his torso and legs in the promos and rehearsal footage, and I think I’ve seen glimpses of that tight body line that good male dancers have. He seems to have a good sense of frame as well. Ten or twenty second clips don’t tell much of a tale and can be misleading, but if he turns out to be pretty good, I don’t think I’ll be all that surprised.
Okay, forget the first part of my question. I’ll follow the link above and refresh my memory.
@MN – The numbers in parenthesis (and I’ll admit I didn’t do a good job of explaining that one) are the individual rankings of the categories themselves. So the following: (2 – 4 – 3) would mean that in the Age category that particular age group ranked 2nd over all… the “4” is the category in which that particular occupation ranked over all… and 3rd is the overall normalized ranking of the professional partner… then I averaged the normalized values together to get the final ranking.
I normalized all seasons onto a 10-point scale and all of my data / calculations come from that.
One of these off-season I’ll create a more detailed idea of what’s going on for those that want more information…
And you’re right, numbers definitely do not reflect what I feel… I try to keep things as unbiased as possible, but that doesn’t keep me from commenting on the numbers.
Where did you put Jennifer that season, marianya? 😉
@Heidi – You know very well where Jennifer went that season… she went to 6th place…
But I’ll admit I didn’t think she’d last beyond the midway point either… That’s why I stay unbiased and let the numbers do the talking for me since… you know… my opinion tends to mean crap anyway 😉
Not to speak for Maryania, who is much more savy on this subject than myself, but if memory serves correct, Jen and Derek were supposed to be out in week 6. 😛 Ofcourse, it wasn’t taking into account shes a huge ringer!!!! 🙂 – sarcasim –
Zach, amazing recall, do you have photographic memory?
It is great to hear from you again, Marianya. 🙂 So sorry to hear life taking over and let me just say “Welcome back!”
I really enjoyed reading this and loved your insight on the couples. I am absolutely pulling for Team Menough and hope Maria can stand out from the pack in a good way. Considering that the men seem to have the edge as far as fanbase (and possibly technique) I worry that Maria might get lost in the shuffle and thus be an early exit. I am soooo not in the mood to hear of celebrations going on about Derek “finally” getting a did. Hopefully Derek hasn’t run out of steam and will play his cards right. Don’t fail us Man!
Again, thanks Marianya.
I just don’t want Derek fans, in particular, to get so wrapped up in numbers that they relax. 🙂
Derek and Maria both sound pretty happy with the arrangement, Nathan, and what more can you ask for?? Don’t worry about idiotic people who would say stuff like that. They are likely the same people who claimed Joanna and Brooke were ringers and therefore not worth the time anyway. 🙂
@Marianya Your results don’t appear to match up with the method described. If you average the group rankings and sort the result, you get the following order:
Avg
Sherri Shepherd 9 10 11 10
Martina Navratilova 11 9 9 9.7
Melissa Gilbert 9 12 4 8.3
Jack Wagner 11 3 10 8
Donald Driver 3 1 12 5.3
Jaleel White 3 7 6 5.3
Katherine Jenkins 3 4 7 4.7
Maria Menounos 3 10 1 4.7
Gavin Degraw 3 4 5 4
William Levy 3 7 2 4
Roshon Fagen 1 2 8 3.7
Gladys Knight 2 4 3 3
Very interesting numbers! This time I really don’t agree with them though. I can’t help but think Melissa has a very strong chance at winning unless Maks messes up (which he may very well do). I’ll be surprised if Maria and Gladys land where the numbers suggest. Know nothing about William, so I have to reserve judgement there. Love Jaleel, but I wasn’t quite as impressed with what little dancing I’ve seen so far-hoping he does well. I believe Katherine can dance from what videos I’ve seen, but will her fan base vote is the big question? Would love to see she and Mark in the final, but that’s a BIG question mark. Will be really interesting to see how the numbers actually truly come out!
One more thing… Who would have predicted Nancy and Rob going that far?
@evilmike – Of course the way that you’re averaging the rankings it wouldn’t align with the rankings I posted… I used a normalized scale where everything is on a ten-point scale… then I give rankings in each category (Age, Occupation, Professional Partner)… so when I give a “final” ranking it is the average of the normalized values that the category ranks came from as opposed to averaging the rankings themselves….
That’s just complicating the formula more than it should.
Thank you Marianya – these numbers posts are always so interesting. The saying goes, numbers don’t lie, but we all know that’s no always the case LOL
Really, one of the intriguing parts of our favorite show is the fact that we cannot predict how someone is going to do based on what we think we know about them, their background, their Pro partner. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been dead wrong, in both directions (i.e. thought they’d be great but they stunk, and vice versa). And this numbers analysis proves that point. Even with data, it’s impossible to predict.
Of course, this unpredictability is one of the many things i absolutely love about this show. IT’S CHAOS! LOL i’m paraphrasing, but Chaos theory is that there are too many variables to predict the outcome, like butterflies swarming a field of flowers on the west coast will affect the weather, down the road, on the east coast. And so it is with DWTS.
we’ll have a much better idea of how these rankings hold up after the premier when we’ve actually seen them dance! A better idea, but not necessarily a clear picture. Gotta love it!
I have been folllowing all the cast on twitter and other sites and have come across three things of interest that I think are relevant to this thread. If it isn’t, then I apologize in advance.
1) On TWOP, someone commented on how sub-dued Maks seems to be in the pre-season interviews and how he doesn’t seem to be himself. They offered two theories: He is either under a “gag order” to behave at all costs OR he is realizing he really doesn’t think he has a shot this season even though he is saying otherwise.
2) Val posted on twitter that he would be devastated if Sherri didn’t go far. He was trying to come up with things to make her better and losing sleep over it. In general, it almost sounded like he was second guessing himself and he would take the blame for her not doing well.
3) The rapport of the stars even at this stage to help and encourage each other along is outstanding! Couple of examples: Pic of Sherri and Gavin practicing the fox trot together. On their days off the stars are still checking in with each other.
I’m loving it! Would love to know what you all think!
Sorry, had to laugh and the” Gavin who?” type posts. he is very “now”. Karina said she called him and asked him to do the show. She loves his music. Hope this works out better for her than Maks handpicking Hope did.
@Marianya — So, you’re using the aggregate placing data for each group (e.g. People in their 20’s finished on average in place 2.4 which is then ranked first in the age group category)?
So I made a comments addendum in regards to Gavin DeGraw… I apologize to all the Gavin fans out there that I may have inadvertently burned in the process.
OR it’s possible Maks knows he’s got someone really good this time, he’s happy and having fun with Melissa, and he’s concentrating all of his efforts and time on her? He also could be busy with other projects besides dancing?
As for Val, he might be just be a worrier in general. I think he’s got a big heart and is an extreme perfectionist and just wants to do really well this season versus last. He knows how badly Sherri wants to do well.
JennJenn, personally I wouldn’t make assumptions about any of the cast being unusually quiet, subdued, or think the worst in any way. Maks is a constant mixed bag in a searching way any way. He’s a hard one to read sometimes.
Those are my thoughts. 😉
@evilmike – that would be correct. It’s not the most accurate mathematical science… but it’s close enough until I could think of another way to make this more accurate for the future (not likely).
@Nathan
@Heidi
What really is worrisome IMO,too, is that celebs like Katherine,Gavin,Maria and probably William and Roshon are gonna have to bring it with all guns blazing for at least the first couple of weeks, or maybe several weeks, to overcome the “Familiarity” factor all the others have. That ain’t no easy task.
The “general public” that watches this show, again IMO, will vote for an old fav or someone they know, (UNLESS that celeb REALLY screws up), until they start settling in and noticing someone less familiar even if that other person is really, really good.
If you think the unfamiliars fanbases will carry them, well possibly if they get really good scores from the judges, but especailly in Gavin, Maria and Kath cases, they do have POPULAR pros but it still could be dicey. I think the Disney kid will get an edge from the judges and maybe have a pretty big fanbase and William will have all the telemundo crowd, hormonal women and of course, CA.
Kath is wellknown in Britain and I know they vote alot, Maria has alot of industry insiders and friends, and when men see her and remember what a “jock” she is they always love her. Gavin, some like me are familiar with a couple of his songs but beyond that ?? You might argue that Derek hung quite a while with Joanna, for example, but they didn’t have quite as many “icons” to overcome.
Anyway, really worrisome and I hope nobody is complacent or comfortable at this point and if I were any one of those 5, I would be practicing anytime my eyes were open !!
@evilmike – And just because I’m going to be nice (and I happen to have this handy)… I actually do have the averages of the various ranks and here is how the celebs would rank if I had used that:
12: Sherri Shepherd
11: Martina Navratilova
10: Melissa Gilbert
9: Jack Wagner
8: Donald Driver (tied w/ 7)
7: Jaleel White
6: Katherine Jenkins (tied w/ 5)
5: Maria Menounos
4: Gavin DeGraw (tied w/ 3)
3: William Levy
2: Roshon Fagen
1: Gladys Knight
Which now looking at it… this seems to be a little more realistic… I’m going to have to think about using this for a future season.
You mean averaging it that way Gladys could win???? 😯
@Meggie – when I said “realistic” I meant in general… and not individually. Numbers don’t tell the whole story… though it’d be awesome if she could. And with a new pro nonetheless.
Mimi, I think you worry too much. 🙂 Come on now, there are popular people, but let’s not get too out of hand. You don’t win this show on votes alone. You get judges scores as well.
Maks has had quite a few shots at winning. Jury is out on everyone, IMO.
Vogue and Heidi: Thanks for commenting – I actually agree with you both, I just find it interesting that people can view the same thing and yet come away with so many different pov’s.
Vogue: “Maks is a hard one to read sometimes” LOL ya think? 😉
Meggie actually brings up a good point.
Calling on the Goddess and Princess:
Do we have the percentage/numbers of wins with a New Pro and a Well Known Star vs a New Pro and Unknown Star?
Off the top of my head, I can only think of Julianne and Apolo which would fit in the New Pro and Well Known.
@Heidi
Yes, today you are right. I am worrying too much. That’s how I roll…either too much or not at all. I’m a Gemini so tomorrow I won’t be worried at all!
It’s just that I really feel that Derek will be leaving after season 14 so I’d like him to make it to the finals (if not another win), and I love MM too. I am NOT a Ballas admirer at all but I would like Katherine to hang awhile over 3 or 4 of the others I can’t stand, one being SS. Gavin, I’m kinda MEH and William, well, I’m monogamous when it comes to hunks…so I’m sticking with the fabulous and one-of-a-kind Derek Hough !!
JennJenn – For me… what you’re asking is difficult to decipher… b/c one’s definition of “well known” may not be the same as another’s definition of “well known”.
In the case of Apolo Anton Ohno… not everyone follows the Olympics let alone speedskating in general… they might see him on commercials but without knowing where he came from they wouldn’t care less.
I try to keep any sense of “popularity” out of the equation b/c it’s a crazy intangible that my brain refuses to comprehend… no offense.
Very interesting that on both of these rankings the celebs rank quite differently don’t they. And on the latter one its Gladys FTW.
Does anyone really think that Gladys has a chance to win?
Kinda echoing Marianya (and this is a general statement and not directed at anyone in particular), we’ve had several requests for us to “run the numbers” on things such as popularity, notability, dance skill, etc…and the problem with a lot of those things is that there isn’t a finite way to measure them. It’s very subjective, as Marianya mentioned, and while Apolo might be a 10 on one person’s “well-known” scale, he might be a 4 on someone else’s. There’s no scientific, objective way to assign a numerical value to a lot of the aspects many of you have mentioned – trust me, I’d love to be able to measure a pro’s popularity and put some tired old arguments to rest about how pro A is more popular than pro B. But at the end of the day, we can only take measurable quantities into consideration…things like judges scores, running order positions, placements on the show, etc. into consideration. We don’t really like to make assertions or claims based on very subjective data – we prefer concrete numbers, and we tend to offer our assessment of those numbers for your consideration. It’s the scientist in us 🙂
@Sandy – This is just one opinion, but it’s hard for me to see a 68 year-old woman winning DWTS. I know it’s not just a dancing contest, but Gladys has a really big hill to climb…
@Sandy – Well looking at previous stats of celebs in their 60s… most have made it to the halfway mark in their season (only exception being Wayne Newton and Priscilla Presley but she missed it by a week I think). But I don’t think they’ve gone past the “middle of the pack”
The highest ranking celeb in their 60s? Kirstie Alley in Season 12.
The main thing I think we should all keep in mind is that no one wins this show solely on votes, or solely on scores, or solely on what pro they’re paired with, etc. It really is a complex combination of factors – you gotta be a good dancer, people have know you, people have to like you, you gotta motivate people to vote for you, you have to remain memorable in viewers’ minds, you have to be visible (as in playing the media game and getting your face out here), and people should (to some degree) either like your pro or like the chemistry you have with your pro. I think Hines is a great example of the “full package” – he could dance, he was likable, he had great chemistry with his pro, he was well-known, and he & Kym played the media game really well. On the opposite end of the spectrum, you’ve got contestants like Chynna, Audrina, Kristin, Mya, Bristol, & Cloris, & Kirstie that were very strong in one particular area but lacked in one or more other areas – and it cost them the trophy. Contestants like Chynna, Audrina, & Kristin were great dancers and generally likeable people, but they tended to neglect the exposure factor and didn’t do enough media, and they tended to lack memorability. Mya was a fantastic dancer, but I think she failed to connect to both viewers and her partner; Cloris couldn’t really dance, but was riotiously funny & memorable; Bristol was a mediocre dancer (who was often overscored), but the controversy she generated seem to keep her on voters’ minds; Kirstie was an inconsistent dancer, but had the memorability factor on her side. You gotta be a “Hines” and have the full package – you can’t put all your eggs in one basket and hope that it carries you through to the end.
That said, I don’t think Gladys will be an early exit – but I also don’t see her making the finale. Not when there’s more able-bodied youngin’s with more dance experience under their belt in the competition.
Jaleel seemed to be one of the frontrunners going into this season. We shall see on premiere night if Jaleel has the total package or not. If he does have *IT*, then I think Jaleel and Kym will be real contenders to make the finals.
Goddess and Courtney: No worries. You guys are really thorough and I didn’t know if you had done a similar posting with pre-determined criteria as far as what defines a new pro etc.
I didn’t recall or see one, but that doesn’t necessarily mean you hadn’t done one in seasons past.
Why yes I do Faby, and thank you. 🙂
@Courtney (#84). That was extremely well-put, and I think it’s this whole combination of factors that you need to be a DWTS champion that keeps the viewing public tuning in season after season. For me at any rate, it’s the anticipation for who’s gonna surprise me and who’s gonna put it all together that keeps the show fresh rather than the tinkering TPTB feel they need to do to create novelty.
@ Zach – you lucky man!
Gee, Court, I feel like I’ve said this exact thing countless times even in the last two weeks – thanks for the back up. But will it work? 🙂
Heidi, I wouldn’t hold my breath if I were you 😉
I need to catch up on the media stuff on Menough but if you feel good, that gives me some good vibes, Heidi.. I am officially done with my house sitting duties and can now use internet and phones with modern day Internet!!!! And I’ll be commenting much more (Insert cricket sound)… 🙂
I think we say it every season, but what gets me is that every season I STILL have people telling me “Ooh, Courtney, don’t underestimate [insert celeb here]! They have a huge fanbase/have some great moves/the best pro/etc.!” And so far, the only celeb that people have “warned” me about that I feel I genuinely underestimated was Ralph – I honestly thought he wouldn’t last past week 3 or so. I know people were “warning” me about Chynna prior to last season – and I was highly (and rightfully) skeptical about her staying power. And people “warned” me that Hope was a shoo-in for the MBT…psssh, yep, she was a world-class dancer alright, and JR just swooped in at the last minute and stole that trophy away 🙂 I guess my point is that blogging about the show tends to force us to see patterns that we wouldn’t normally see if we were just casual viewers…while a casual viewer holds out hope that a relative nobody like Mike Catherwood could stick around for awhile, history tells us that he’s probably not gonna last past the 2nd week. I guess when you see the show under a microscope like we do, it (ironically) makes us kinda see the big picture – it’s clear to us that a crappy dancer is not gonna get all the way to finale on votes alone. But for someone not as jaded as us…maybe the Carson Kressleys of the world are shoo-ins to win 🙂
You see it on twitter all the time too – “Oh, DWTS, you’ll be sorry you didn’t choose ‘insert obscure celeb name’s here”!!! Your ratings would have gone through the roof and they would have won cuz they have so many fans. Here’s a clue – if I say “who??” They ain’t gonna be responsible for a ratings increase nor are they likely to win the show in a walk. They have to have the whole package. Including dancing.
People ALWAYS overestimate the power of the object of their affection. Which is why you almost NEVER say “Derek’s gonna win.” Or “Maria is going to kill it” – because that is for those who don’t pay attention to how this show works. 🙂
Heidi and Courtney:
I think another major factor that people tend to overlook as far as the
total pkg is the Stars journey. Afterall, that is the basis of the show.
Last season, I couldn’t have cared less about Rob even though he was paired with Cheryl (my fave women’s pro). But you didn’t have to be an Einstein to see the kid progress week after week and more importantly he was thoroughly enjoying it.
Now look at Hope’s journey. She was just miserable.
Compare the two journey’s. I would rather reward a contestant with my votes, support and viewership that was like Rob.
I’m actually going to have a little faith in Sherri. I think she might surprise us. But then again, she might make us cringe.
I seriously want Tony to stop getting the shaft. I know his Freestyles are probably some of the most lack luster freestyles, but I really want to see him in the finals again. Chynna was his ticket and the public blew it because she had a bad night. But such is life. =)
I definitely have Maria pegged for the Finals solely based on the fact that Derek IS her partner. I may be fed up with him having 3 wins and a lot of pros with 0 trophies still haven’t won, but the fact that he’s made it to Quarter-, Semi-, and the Finals for a majority of his time on the show? He knows what he’s doing.
I can’t say much about everyone else, unfortunately. This is the first season where I’m going to have to watch everyone dance before choosing my favorites.
I’m very pleasantly surprised that the number put Maria and Derek in the first place. Seriously, compared to the others Maria is a much lesser name. Despite Derek being a miracle worker doesn’t mean they’re gonna be good. I was seriously worried, because Maria is looking stiff and an awkward mover. Also, have people forgotten that this show tends to be unkind to pretty ladies? 😀 So worried I am.
Numbers are more solid than impression than hunches though, and if this turns out to be the real placement it’s a good one. And I keep changing my own prediction with new information and stuff.
Thanks very much, Marianya!
I’m loving that this season doesn’t seem to have a clear “ringer.” It’s the first season in a while where I’m excited to see ALL of the celebs hit the dance floor. While some will clearly turn out to be better than others, I love that we probably won’t really know for sure until opening night!
BTW, if anybody is wondering about why Katherine isn’t doing Strictly Come Dancing, youtube her interview on Piers Morgan’s “Life Stories” series.
They talk about her ambition to break into the US.
That’s every time except with Shannon, Tony. 😉 But it’s bound to happen again, sooner or later. We’ll see. I don’t think anyone can call it right now – except for Sherri having a good first week thanks to plenty early rehearsal with Val.
Tony D really hasn’t gotten the shaft as often as people think, but then some can’t seem to remember past the last season. Tony has had Melissa, Audrina, Chynna, and Stacey Kiebler – all were great dancers. He had Marissa who was pretty good and made it to fourth place, and Susan and Jane – both made it to 6th place, past the half way point. You wanna talk shaft, talk to Jonathan.
My top three pre season guess right now is:
Jaleel
Jack
Melissa
I would love for Gladys or Martina to make it but it’s a stretch.
Maria- for some reason my hunch tells me she won’t make it to the final even though she’s got everything going for her.
Donald and William could be the dark horses.
No real opinion on the rest.
i love Maria…but i also think Derek has a lot of work this season… i know he is a miracle worker and she is very determined so..i will do my part and vote my fingers off…this season has a really great cast…i saw some of the rehearsing tapes…lot of dance ability … as Derek said… high standards this season…the first elimination…will be a shock…if the people don’t vote… there will be many regrets ..my personal opinion is that Gavin will make a soon exit…he doesn’t seem to be really into it…and Martina…she is an inspiration…but i think she won’t do as good with the judges notes as she did in tennis… Donald…i think he will be a real surprise…think Peta has a gold mine this time around..hope she knows to play her cards right.. and…i never thought i will say that..but i think Maks is more quite as ususal because he knows he has a real chance at that MBT…my opinion is that that MBT is Melissa’s too lose…and that involves Maks… 🙂
Elara- TY for commenting on my post.
I would love to see Tony, Maks or Anna swoop in and take it. All three are long over due for a win.
@JennJenn – Wishful thinking. My opinion is, There ain’t a snowballs chance in h*ll….
I think the public is still ouching from Maks last season and not sure if America will get behind him so quickly. Melissa doesn’t stand out as charismatic or very appealing to me. But we shall see won’t we. JMO.
I’d like to see Maks or Tony actually EARN a win. Which would mean choreographing a killer freestyle, not throwing any fellow pros under buses, not cussing out judges, resisting the temptation to sit in the audience or walk across the floor for countless bars of music….I don’t think that’s too much to ask. Although those are more Maks problems than Tony problems. He needs to get creative with the choreo.
IMO- Sometimes it is just easier to be perfect when you have blond hair.
As a natural strawberry blonde, I would agree.
Thanks for the explanation, Marianya.
And Heidi, I have to agree that Maks’s choreographic abilities have done him in more than once. I remember yelling in frustration when he did that “stop the dancing in its tracks” thing with Mel, of all people. The woman could flat-out dance, and he wasted bars of music having her stand still and pose. One of the areas that Derek excels in as a choreographer is knowing how to milk everything out of his partner’s strengths and camouflage their weaknesses. Maks doesn’t seem to have that skill. And he certainly isn’t as creative as Derek. (And Cheryl and Karina have done some very creative choreography as well, whereas Tony is more like Maks.)
Well, it’s a “tick” MN. All the dancers have them, it’s just that Maks’ tick doesn’t seem to serve him as well as other pros do for them. Maks’ tick is the walking thing. Derek will do a lot of that bending of his partner backwards thing (that I don’t know how to describe any other way). Mark’s big tick is in his Jives (over dancing) and his clothing selection. Those are the three I can think of off the top of my head – but they all have them. In Derek’s case, I think the tick is a move that is often convenient – he seems to do it in weird spots in the music and it’s still a legit dance move. Mark’s doesn’t usually hurt him either – it just allows us to make fun of the polka dots and spats. But unfortunately, Maks tick usually means a very good dancer spends too much time sitting down or walking – I can understand why Len gets cranky about it. Now, if someone isn’t that good of a dancer – USE It. But if you’re dancing with Mel B?? Nooooo.
It’s funny – on the women’s side, no immediate ticks spring to mind. The only one that might be close is the male running his finger down the center of Cheryl’s chest in an attempt at “sexy.” I think she’s used that a couple times. I”m sure they all have them, just can’t think of any right now.
Would Derek’s acrobatic skills (ex. Nicole’s jive and ricki’s freestyle) or his odd little dance move that he created when partnered with Joanna and used with Ricki last season be his tick?
I think I know the tick for Chelsie. She tends to dress similalrly to the way she is dressed in the promo shoot a lot. Lacey’s is defiantely her ability to get one outfit in every color lol
I don’t think he does the acrobatics often enough for it to be a tick, Vin. It’s not even once a season, really. I wish he did it more often, it amazes me every time. As for the head bob thing with Joanna – the first time was a mistake, the second time was a nod to his mistake that people talked about for days. 🙂 If they’ve only done it once or twice…or even three times….it’s not really a tick. When you get up to once or twice per SEASON, then we’re talking tick. 🙂
Ah ok. yeah in that case disregard my last post lol I’m going out on a limb and saying that Derek might not have a tick. Unless you count being creative a tick lol
And I hope Maks nixes hiswalking tick this season. It worked for Kirstie but it needs to go away.
No, he has a tick – just not those you mentioned. He does that one move I described a couple times a season.
Yes, Vin….Dereks tic is that he just always ooooozes the message-“I’m here, I’m hot, talented and genuinely loving that you all love what I do and I’m havin’ fun !!! It’s magnetic and draws people right in. I seldom hear anyone say anything but positive things about him, except on some of the blogs, of course !