DWTS Season 14, Week 1 – Dancing by the Numbers
Curious as to where your favorite stands after one week of dancing?? You’ve come to the right place. That said – this could all be crap by the time the couples do their next dance. I fully expect the judges to level the playing field (cuz they’re stupid like that) with the exception of their designated favorite. I have a feeling that will be Jaleel and William, if CAI and Bruno have anything to say about it. The Vagina vote wins every time. At least Jaleel is a kick ass dancer. William? Not so much. He’s alright. But starting out with overscoring so many people? Likely means they will do some leveling next week.
Anyway, let’s look at the couples and their percentages of the total:
The Judges Scores and Percentages
Place | Celebrity | Score | Percentage |
1. | Jaleel | 26 | 9.63 |
1. | Katherine | 26 | 9.63 |
3. | William | 24 | 8.89 |
4. | Gladys | 23 | 8.52 |
4. | Roshon | 23 | 8.52 |
4. | Sherri | 23 | 8.52 |
4. | Jack | 23 | 8.52 |
8. | Maria | 21 | 7.78 |
8. | Donald | 21 | 7.78 |
10. | Melissa | 20 | 7.41 |
10. | Martina | 20 | 7.41 |
10. | Gavin | 20 | 7.41 |
To give you some perspective, last season there was a much more realistic 3.5% spread between the top and the bottom. This season? Not so much.
Anyway, there is a lot of danger for a lot of people with the scoring so close. The only people truly safe are Jaleel and Katherine; even as little known (ringer) as she is, I don’t think that EVERY other dancer is going to get more votes than she did. Because that is what would have to happen. Jaleel will easily get the one vote that he needs, but the people below her would each need the following for Katherine to go home.
That’s what it would take for Katherine to go home. Now, I think that Katherine has “shocking elimination” written all over her BUT, if she keeps the point spread like it is, she’ll be safe for a long while. I doubt very much that Gavin is getting the votes to beat her right now, and I doubt Roshon is yet either. I don’t really think that Maria and Donald are generating that many more votes than her yet, but that could easily change. Her dance was pretty and very well executed, but as we’ve said ad nauseum around here – you have to have the whole package. She strikes me as Audrina did – except Katherine (like Maria) has a much better partner. Plus Katherine has a lot more dance experience than Audrina did (but she had none, if I recall).
What about our golden (overscored) boy, William?? He was not four points better than Melissa, IMO. Maybe ONE point better. But as one of the lesser knowns in this cast, I would imagine that 24 is a nice bit of insulation from the quickstep and the lack of a fanbase. Give him some time to get “known” cuz lord knows this show is about ratings and some women don’t mind a teeny tiny peanut head. While the studio audience clearly liked him – it’s TV. So…is he REALLY getting votes?? I’m still skeptical. What would it take for him to be eliminated? ALL of the following would have to happen:
I think it’s likely that Jack, Gladys and Roshon are passing him in votes, but I’m not so confident about Maria, Gavin, Martina and Melissa getting the votes it would take. Yeah, Melissa is a fanbase ringer, and Maria has Derek, Martina is an icon and Donald is…well, Donald…but I don’t have a good feel yet for how this season is going to shake out. That might be a lot of votes. Lots of big personalities/fanbases and lots and lots of talent. On some seasons in the past, Melissa and Maria would have been near the top of the pack. Not this season.
Okay, so we covered the unknowns in the group, what about the bottom of the pack? Gavin, Melissa and Martina all have the same score, so all are in the same boat. I’ll write this from the perspective of Gavin, but it applies to the ladies as well, just switch around the names. Gavin would need ONE of the following to happen in order to stay:
And so on. Personally, I don’t think Gavin is getting the one more vote than Melissa or Martina, and I don’t think he’s beating either Maria or Donald…but stranger things have happened. My sense is he’s still the one in danger, but it could also be Martina. If Gavin, Melissa and Martina are getting the 3,7oo votes to pass Maria or Donald?? Well, that would suck because it would mean that over scoring could cost Maria or Donald tremendously because I don’t know if either of them are getting the 7,400 more votes per million votes cast to stay over either Roshon, Gladys, Sherri and Jack. Of that group, I think Maria and Donald can both pass Jack and Roshon. Again, tough call and we’re not talking a lot of votes.
This is already too long for a numbers post that doesn’t really count, so I’m going to wrap it up by saying that I think Gavin, Martina, Jack and Roshon are in the danger zone right now…more so Gavin and Martina than Jack and Roshon because I don’t think Gavin and Martina are getting 11k plus more than Jack and Roshon.
See me next week for the “real” numbers post. 🙂
Even if it’s not the “real” numbers post, I still love it! Numbers rarely lie! Thanks, Heidi!
THIS^^^^
I love these posts so much! Thanks Heidi and I bet it’s Gavin who is the most in trouble.
….first of all don’t have the attention span to read your whole article….but William is HOT! … and Melissa is not….Maks got stuck with a lemon…..but maybe he can make lemonade
I am so impressed with your number-sense because I have none. Thanks for doing the math for us!
love numbers, even if they don’t mean as much with the judges having yet to add their wacky take on week two scoring (and if they are as tight on the spread as they were last night, the greater the probablity for an ‘uspet’ on the elimination.
Just a note, Gavin’s single is at #35 on the Itunes Top 100. Not sure where it was 48 hours ago, but that’s a lot of downloads, even if they aren’t all watching DWTS.
Ehh I don’t know…Gavin Degraw does have some supportive fans, and he’s not a completely unknown singer like Chuck Wicks was.
I hope Gavin doesn’t leave first but he probably will. I think he is sweet and I love how shy he is. And he’s one of the real amateur non ringers this season. I though his dance with Karina was very sweet.
I think the most vulnerable based on Week 1 are:
Weakest Male- Gavin
Most Forgettable Male- Jack
Weakest Female- Martina
Most Forgettable Female- Melissa
Most Annoying- Sherri (I for one really like Sherri, but some people…HATE her…)
Next weeks dance for these 5 will be crucial.
I can’t see any way Jaleel, Katherine, Gladys, William, Donald, Roshon, or Maria go home based on their dancing, their impact, their likeability, or scores.
Great post! Thanks Heidi, you always impress me with all those numbers!
I also think Gavin and Martina are the most in danger and I don’t see them getting better scores with next week’s dances tbh, but we’ll see, a shocking elimination can always surprise us at any time, especially with the unknowns and all this overscoring!
Gavin is not dancing in a vacuum, though. He may have a ton of fans but that does no good if everyone else has MORE, know what I mean?
I agree Heidi. As Tom mentioned, Gavin’s cd just went platinum which is awesome, but a lot of his fans on forums & twitter were clueless as how to vote, when to vote, and some said they missed the show, where can they see his dance. Then of course, there are those who say, “Gavin is on dwts?”….SMH because first of all, wasn’t he the first official leaked celeb? Secondly, poor PR on his people’s part. IMHO
@Heidi what do you mean Gavin is not dancing in a vacuum?
He does have fans but I also read in someone else’s comments here that some of his fans didn’t even know they could vote on monday already :/
+ Im thinking Martina might get more votes than him
She basically meant that he’s got a big fan base, however he’s not the only big celeb competing and the other celebs have even bigger fan bases. Honestly, some of them know how to vote more than they can via certain methods (zip codes/area codes/browsers/cookies—are the words I constantly see when some fans instruct other fans how to do what they call power voting). Some people have said they used their home computer at night and office computer in the morning–doubling all their multiple email votes.
Another topic….I don’t listen to Howard Stern, but someone showd this to me, so here it is :
Stern Show @sternshow
Dancing w/ the Stars F, Marry, Kill: @martina says she’d F @mariamenounos , marry @Karina_Smirnoff & very reluncantly kill @cherylburke
Did Martina really say this–was she really on his show? BTW it’s also terrible that that still shot of Martina staring at Katherine’s boobs is circulating 🙁 A radio station is urging fans next Monday night to vote for the worst (in their opinion Martina), so that actually might help her stay, even though they are doing it to be mean.
Can’t understand the attitudes about her….she’s a sports legend,and has always seems classy and respectful.
I suspect many of Gavin’s fans are into music and were probably watching the competition that night… The Voice.
(Sheery, stay tuned. I’m posting a new post on the Howard Stern thing shortly 😉 )
Oh ok thanks sheery!
Wow I hadn’t heard all this about Martina, she does seem nice and genuine to me, if she were on that radio show it wouldn’t surprise me Howard tried to get her to say mean things or idk
Also I havnt seen that still you are talking about, are people making fun of her for looking at Katherine’s boobs? Poor Martina she doesn’t deserve this imo
Stern is such a pig! I can’t believe he got the Americas Got Talent job. I won’t be watching. Poor Martina.
Sheery and Vogue:
You have got to be kidding me?! I just choked on my tea as I was reading this re: Martina.
I just may have to make another batch of Belinis minus the fruit juice if this turns out to be true. 😯
Sheery, she never said those things. Post going up in about 30 minutes. Stay tuned all.
Just a thought – this schedule of no elimination the first week also gives TPTB a good opportunity to story board and script. They’ve done the first dance, the scores basically amount to “Heck, we don’t know – you viewers figure it out!” and we’ve voted. So at this point, TPTB have everything they need to tweak scoring next week here & there, think about the demographics (I for one, think there’s not way in hell TPTB will let Roshon get booted off in a shock elimination), and build their little storyline… sigh.
Man. I’m all for being as open as the situation allows but those comments don’t sound like something Martina would say. She is too reserved.
I don’t get the boob looking thing. I’m a heterosexual woman and I was looking at her boobs as well. They looked big for her frame and a bit weird.
That’s why boobs shown- for people to look at. And it’s not an exclusive right for attractive specimens of the opposite sex. Jeez.
My Top 5 Favorites this Season:
Maria Menounos and Derek Hough
Jaleel White and Kym Johnson
Katherine Jenkins and Mark Ballas
Sherri Shepherd and Val Chmerkovskiy
Donald Driver and Peta Murgatroyd
The Couples in jeopardy next week will probably be:
Gavin and Karina
Melissa and Maksim
Martina and Tony
Couple going home:
Martina and Tony.
Ok Guys, before some of us get too off topic in this post, go here to tell your thoughts on the Martina and Howard Stern deal, ok? Thanks.:
https://www.puredwts.com/2012/03/21/howard-stern-grills-martina-navrotilova-about-her-dancing-role-on-dwts-rant-post/
Whoa, lots of numbers. My head is spinning, but I’m going back to read it again. Heidi, I’m impressed, thanks for posting. Not sure I’m smart enough to comprehend all this but I’m gonna give it a try.
btw, I really tried not to look at Williams teeny tiny little head, but I think it colored my opinion of his dancing which, imo, only consisted of pelvic thrusts. Shoulda been looking at the head. But, CA and the audience loved it, so what do I know. 🙂
Thanks Vogue!!!
BTW guys, several complaints to the person who had that “picture” of his paused television shot of the boob thing, has deleted the link 🙂 Power of the people! 🙂
Oh, I’m so glad to hear he took the pic down.
Yeah my favorite article, the numbers. Thanks so much for doing this.
Seeing the numbers you need to get, I find it so weird that Pamela Anderson and Shannen Doherty ended up in the bottom 2 the first week their season. Pam was 18 points ahead of Buzz Aldrin, Shannen 12. They were also far ahead of Ochocincho, Gosselin, Aiden Turner, and a few others as well. They must have gotten few votes if any at all for all those other stars to pass them.
Just curious – do you have a feel for percentages of truly savvy voters for different support groups? For instance, would a younger contestant have a younger more tec savvy audience voting in multiple ways and maybe an older contestant’s support group be slightly less so? Just curious after talking to my niece who voted for Roshon “like, a hundred times!” and my mom, who voted for Gladys, but didn’t really understand that – unlike the presidential election – on DWTS you can can vote more than once. 🙂
When I say Gavin isn’t dancing in a vacuum I mean that he’s not the only one on the show – so you can’t just say “he has lots of fans”. What is important is “does he have more fans than the other people on the show. I think the answer to that might be no in many or most cases. THAT is the problem.
Guys I’m sorry that what I’m about to say isn’t related to the topic, but do you know anything about the troupe??.. I kept waiting to see them on the premiere, as in season 13, but they never showed up.. Any ideas of what’s going on?
My sense from watching the show for a while and looking at the numbers is that younger people really don’t vote in droves. They think voting on one phone and one email is “like a hundred times”. Basically, I go with my gut says the main demographic thinks or if I remember a contestant the day after the show has aired. If I have to go back and look at the list to see who I’m forgetting? Not a good sign. Also see a lot on twitter.
But no – it’s mainly on experience and gut feelings. There is no known data for the percentages of the voting groups or even how many votes are cast. That’s why I’m can often be wrong in who I think is going home – but I never know if I’m close or not. That’s what makes it fun. 🙂
According to Sharna’s twitter, the Troupe are doing 3 numbers next week.
So they never publish the total number of votes for the week?…
Thank you, oh Princess Heidi. I can’t imagine where all you have to search to get your DWTS scoops. I, happily, just get to come here!
While I’m not one to think of conspiracy theories, I believe in season 10, Shannen’s elimination was a little pre-determined. I actually thought she did well and shouldn’t have been eliminated but she had things going against her. She performed 2nd the first night, and then 1st the 2nd week, which isn’t the best. Then Mark got injured and the plan was for her to dance with Corky, and she didn’t want to dance with Corky, so I guess they just eliminated her. She had that look in her face that she already knew she was going home.
Question#1–Who selected Corky as Mark’s replacement? Mark or TPTB? I remember with Kirstie, Maks had made a comment that Teddy would replace him if his leg prevented him from dancing with Kirstie after the fall.
Question#2–I went to make accounts on abc site and read a couple posts. One was about Katherine being a pro and this was one remark out of a slew of Mark fans–
“They put Katherine with Mark because she is from England and a musician. They try to pair people for similar interests and personalities. Jennifer Grey asked for Derek because she wanted to win, and Derek always is over-scored. JG would not have come on the show unless she planned to win. She was courted for years and had time to get ready. Her father is a famous stage dancer. She is not just some slouch who starred in a dance movie years ago. The Derek nuts are upset because Derek is not looking like he will make it to the finals where he will dance another beach blanket bingo routine.”
So here’s the question: Should I answer them lol!
@Sheery:
I can answer question #1 for you because I wondered the same thing and looked it up earlier. Below is the link to an interview Shannen and Mark gave to OK Magazine. Here is part of it:
“After Shannen got the boot, Mark informed viewers that he had injured his knee in rehearsal and an MRI revealed he would have to be out for six weeks. Producers planned to replace Mark with his dancer dad Corky Ballas (well known for his DWTS season with Cloris Leachman) for Shannen’s duration on the show, but her vote off made that unnecessary.”
As for the answer to Question#2:
If you want to go back into the lion’s den just make sure you take some marrow bones with you so they’ll have something to chew on! 😛
http://www.google.ca/gwt/xq=mark+ballas+injured+knee+shannen+doherty&ei=zqNqT-jLE-fWyQHy6wE&hl=en-GB&source=m&u=http://www.okmagazine.com/news/shannen-doherty-dwts-elimination-its-fate
@Sheery – Those boards on ABC are just plain ridiculous. I learned a long time ago to just stay away.
I love my home here at PureDWTS complete with a slice of cheesecake. 🙂
LOL – “the Derek nuts”. Me think someone should look in the mirror. They have really twisted history into a new shape there. Plus, I think most Derek fans realize how good he is and have nothing to prove. Eight seasons, six of those he landed in the semi-finals or higher.
That post, ladies and gentlemen, is exactly what I’ve been talking about for a long time. Extreme jealousy and paranoia making people turn Derek into the shlub who can’t really dance or teach, he is just lucky with partners and overscored. Morons.
@sheery – If you do go back to the ACB boards, remember what a friend of mine (a psych nurse) says – “Don’t mess with the crazies; they can’t help it!” 😉
I’ve seen the Derek-bashing for a few years now… sigh… at this point, my only thought for those folks is “Whatever it takes to get you through the day…”
@Sally:
TYVM for my laugh of the morning! “Don’t mess with the crazies…..”LOL
“Whatever it takes to get through your day” ….
@Beka and I have a secret….boozy cheesecake! 😉
It just pains me to think this but I don’t think Maria and Derek are gonna be around for more than a couple of weeks if they continue to get no coverage except on Extra and the judges continue to bestow huge scores on the ringers while piling on the MEH comments and pointing out all that she, Gavin and Matina can’t do. Audience tends to go along, IMO, especially if it isn’t a “name” they recognise like Gladys or Melissa who they might vote for to give them a chance. Kinda strange when they thought Nicole looked so pro because she could shake her ta-tas and do “hairogrophy” ala PCD they decided to treat her like a pro and make her work harder for any big score they gave her later in the season.
So disappointing because it looked to me like if given enuf time( a season without as many fanbase and pro dancing ringers), Gavin,Martina and Maria could gradually improve after learning the 2 styles of dance and build on their perfomance levels. I think Derek could do with Maria what he did with Jennie and Brooke-but not without a few weeks to build it up. And it would be fun to watch her because she is fun, has a great disposition and really wanted to learn to dance.
But seeing that there is no-problem for everyone about the extreme ringers and even the judges are playing along with that unless there is some serious dilution of votes because they are being shared across 3 or 4 celebs because of demographics , or suddenly those with zero dance experience can produce big stagey, dance production numbers immediately that many others in this cast have already done, they won’t get much of a chance to learn anything. I think the judges (and how they scoree) are probably most important in Maria’s case since obviously nobody is getting her and Derek any kind of publicity or any buzz going while you see 3 or 4 of the other contestants over and over again on various shows or news spots.
I think Derek is going to surprise the nay-sayers, and he will turn Maria into a good dancer. He has done it before, he is talented that way! He can turn mediocre dancers into good dancers…of course he then has to suffer the insults that it was because his partner was a ringer, or whatever. That’s okay. we know better.
This is a good group this year. I’m very excited for all of them. My initial thought is Martina is first to go. But we will have to wait and see.
My question to mimi is, who are you talking about being obvious ringers in your post #41? I’m not arguing with you, just curious what I missed.
I went back and looked at the post at ABC, and the original post didn’t even say he/she was a Derek fan!
They people talking the smack are the Mark Thread regulars and they post there the most & favorably…wink wink.
Well, I remember lots of seasons where Derek and his partner got little to no coverage early in the season an I think you’ve forgotten that he often got the lesser known people in a season and still did fine. I think how well he and Maria do will have little to do with pr and everything to do with the judges and the voting and the ability of the other dancers. I won’t be looking for excuses like some other fans of other pros, I’m going to vote and enjoy them. You can’t win every season and it isn’t the end of the world if Derek doesn’t make the finals. At least he’s ON the show which is better than some fans can say…he’s also won three times which is also more than most (all) can say.
Heidi, I do remember and if he gets some time to work with Maria as he did with the others, I think they’ll do fine. I don’t expect him to get a win every season but I was hoping in this season when he finally gets someone a little closer to his age and with no body/health issues it would be so great to see them hang, at least, thru mid-point, to see how she deelops coming in with zero experience.
And as I said in my post, I too, think that the judges are a huge factor in whether any of the non-dancers have any chance. When they just “surmised” that Nicole had dance experience, they judges her with a much higher level of expectation. If week one is any indicaton that’s all gone now. Even tho Katherine has been at various appearances yesterday and today proclaiming that she is “just used to standing behind a mic and singing”…touring in a musical show doing choreographed tap numbers in 2008?, I think. Well, I’m sorry but tap not only is great for stamina, it also helps you with balance and weight distribution for the legs and with foot placement. ( Her jive will probably be better than her first dance!) I’m sure all 3 judges picked up on that and if not none of them should be judging. and then theres Jaleel who has had at least some dance coaching or training over the years, Roshon…..anyway, that’s what I was saying.
I agree completely, Heidi. But I’m not counting him in any way out or even compromised — this is his kind of challenge, and Maria seems more than up for it. There is always a target on the chest of the best, but this guy can handle the pressure. The competitive drive of Derek’s, combined with the joy he gets out of seeing someone blossom and do what they never thought they could do will, IMHO, produce a great run for these two. They have all of my votes all of the time, and I wish them the very best.
The moral of the story is: don’t complain about lack of media coverage, vote your damn fingers to the bone. Period. Lack of media coverage won’t determine the outcome – poor dancing and lack of votes will. Great dancing and fans voting is no guarantee, but at least you’ll know you TRIED.
My bets for first 3 teams to go are: Martina, Gavin, and Melissa
I have a strong feeling that Urkel will take the top leaderboard again for week 2. He’s a good tap dancer and the jive should be his dance!
Katherine will do very well too because there’s a video of her going around revealed that she’s a professional tap dancer.
William, i’m eager to see if he can bring it in ballroom as much as he can in latin dances. He should be more relaxed on Monday and more prepared. They’re rehearsal did not hurt them on his first week, but could have been better.
@T – Urkel a good tap dancer? I didn’t know that.
Didn’t he attempt it on Family Matters? Granted, everything he attempted had to be goofy style 🙂
Nice news about Gladys:
http://www.tmz.com/2012/03/23/gladys-knight-white-house/#.T2yLxJjN7dk