Dancing with the Stars – Ratings Watch
As a blogger, I get a lot of my ideas for things to write on twitter or other websites. Often, my ideas are a result of reading things that I know just aren’t true, either in my gut or by knowledge of facts. This series is no different. When I’m not playing Devil’s Advocate, I’m attempting to debunk some crazy hyperbole that I’ve read out on the web. Just call me contrary. 🙂 It’s my way. Anyway, one of the things that I read on a semi-regular basis is a phrase similar to: “Well, DWTS’ ratings just aren’t that good anymore” or “the rating are way down”. The former is, well – wrong. Or at the very least, seriously in need of CONTEXT. The latter? Well, that would be a bit of hyperbole. They are on a downward trend, compared to previous seasons…but when you are maintaining your top ten status (which certainly means that most TV is down as a whole), does it really matter?? Let’s face it – there are a lot of different ways to watch TV programs these days and I ain’t talking DVR. Not only is there On Demand, but there is the web.
But I digress. Let’s look at the average seasonal ratings for all seasons of DWTS up to this point.
Wow, big scary drop off in ratings, right? Well, it depends on how you look at it. Surely with that large of a ratings drop in Season 13, they fell out of the top ten, right? Nope. This next graph is a graph of the average RANK by season for performance and results show; meaning, where did the shows place in the top 20.
Now, this graph looks wacky, partly because I was missing place data for Season 11 and I’m too lazy to try to find it. 🙂 The take away from this graph are the numbers on the right hand side – they’re all less than ten, meaning that the show was always averaging in the top ten of all TV shows. Yeah, not so sucky after all. The season that had the big drop off in the ratings (13)? Still had an average of about 4th place for the performance show and 7th place for the results. What I find most interesting is that the season with the highest rank (10 – Nicole/Evan/Erin) for the performance show, was almost the lowest ranked in the results show. What that says to me is that the audience loved watching the dancing…but may have found the results to be a foregone conclusion. Or it could be that the performance show was getting trounced by the Number 1 American Idol performance show. Or it could be a wicked combination of the two. I go with the latter. 🙂
There are so many factors in play for the ratings for this show that it’s extremely difficult to draw any real conclusions. On most TV shows the cast is basically the same every season – not this show. Even the part of the cast that is somewhat static changes a bit every season. The main thing to keep in mind is when reading articles on the show that say “oh, the ratings are down” is that while that might be true on its face, there is a whole bunch of context that they are leaving out. Context like number of viewers, or rank, or how TV as a whole is doing. That’s why, if you care about ratings, it’s important that you look at BOTH numbers, not just one or the other. And not just use a number you don’t understand as a bludgeon to claim that the ratings are down because your favorite pro isn’t on it…or because your idea of a great celeb didn’t make the cut. That’s just silly. 🙂 Anyway, rarely do articles give you any kind of context – they just scream to the heavens that the world is coming to an end.
So, what about this season thus far? Well, the final weekly ratings aren’t out yet, and I will be doing a new post when they are. I have heard rumblings that the fast nationals showed that the premiere was down about 35 percent from last spring. By itself, this number means nothing. At all. What we want to know is, how did it do compared to other shows and is it still a top ten show. If the answer to the second question is yes…do we care about total viewers? I’m thinking no, not really. But it’s still kinda interesting to a numbers nerd like me. 🙂
As I said, we’ll look at the ratings week by week and compare them to previous Spring seasons to get a real feel for how the show is doing. To set the stage, I’ve graphed each week of the performance shows for the Spring seasons and the Fall seasons.
Note that, for the most part, the shape of all the Spring seasons are similar to each other as are those for fall – but they aren’t necessarily similar to each other (Season 12 being the exception in that it seems to mimic a fall season in the latter half). I tend to think that the decrease in viewers toward the end of the spring season is due to the improvement in the weather. You’ll note that the opposite is true for the fall seasons; the ratings increase toward the end of the season. But I don’t know the reasons (don’t think anyone does), I’m speculating – there are too many variables to draw a lot of conclusions.
The main points of this post (and series) and what you should take away from all of these graphs and keep in mind going forward is that there is generally a decline (overall) over the course of a spring season. So when chicken little screams “the ratings are falling”, just keep in mind it’s not a new phenomenon. It happens in the spring. Also look back to the graphs near the top of the post which shows the average viewers for seasons 5 through 13 and remember that this ain’t the first time DWTS has seen a steady decline in ratings. Zap2It even declared in Season 5 that DWTS “is in decline”. Well, 9 seasons later we’re still here. 🙂
Another example…remember when American Idol was doing over 20 million in viewers every week and DWTS was occasionally beating it?? Well, look at the screen grab below which shows the ratings for the week of March 5th, 2012. DWTS isn’t the only TV show where the ratings are down and AI can’t blame the Voice, since they aren’t going head to head. DWTS is going head to head with the Voice…and if reports are correct, losing. BUT, also, it should remain a top ten show. So, what is it losing besides viewers?? Advertising dollars and bragging rights…but I don’t think it’s going anywhere anytime soon. 🙂
As a numbers geek, I love your analysis. Interesting to note the insight on spring weather making a difference, as people don’t necessarily want to be inside when it’s nice out. it was CRAZY warm all over the country last week – could that be it?
Also, to your point of overall viewership down, do you have the numbers of total viewers for the week (or for the top ten shows)? If that trend shows down (or DWTS shows the same percentage of the total), it supports your theory that less people are watching in general.
Dwts is fine. The Voice is hurting them more in the key demo but that is one this show never had anyway. The year they did well with the key demo, not surprisingly, was when they had The Situation on which is exactly why they cast him. It is relative, as we can see. With all so many more choices, particularly on cable expectations for what is successful on network tv has to change.
Oh Heidi! GOOD JOB! We need to file this post away somewhere so it’c close when we need it for every time someone says ratings are down, etc.
I so look forward to this series every week!
This show never does well in the targeted demo but total viewers are always high. Idol has been on a downward spiral too for a couple years now. Even if ratings continue to decline it will be a while before its seriously considered for cancellation. Same for Idol. Them jokers at zap2it keep insisting that AI and DWTS will be cancelled soon. I wish the ratings system would change to something more current, no one I know even has a Nielsen’s box.
SueB, I am considering calculating the percentage AI is down from a year ago and then looking at the percentage that DWTS is down from a year ago and seeing how close they are – but that seems like it could be a LOT of work, the way I would be compelled to do it. You can’t really do it on a one-time basis because the weekly ratings fluctuate due to a number of factors. That would mean I would have to go back and find the weekly viewership numbers for AI from last season and start tracking it this season. I get tired thinking about that. But I may start tracking AI too and then go back at some point in the future.
It’s this type of insightful post that I love about this blog. I do tire of other sights making throwaway remarks based on a lack of understanding about what the numbers really mean.
A note about American Idol. I can remember the days when it was consistently pulling over 30 million viewers. If it’s at only 18 mil now? That’s a HUGE drop-off, certainly something much greater than any drop DWTS might be having. For DWTS to basically barge into Monday and take over from a hit which is mid-season (The Voice) and beat them that handly, shows me it’s still got ratings muscle.
If that show Duets is a hit, I think dwts can go once a year which I think though a fan would like. Better pool of talent trying to cast once a year than two and gives pros breaks which some need, lol.
In the rhinestones and all, even if not a hit in the key demo, this show relatively cheap for abc and they will not be upset at those numbers.
Just to note: ABC is repeating Monday’s premiere tonight. I find that interesting.
Glad to see Idol taking the top 2 spots 🙂 Sad not to see DWTS i nthe list 🙁
@Melissa: Thats the Kelly Clarkson/Lionel Ritchie one right? If thats the one, i don’t think it will last past 1 season. Too many singing shows already.
Saturday is a dead zone for networks now. They have done that before. Nothing interesting about them reairing the premiere. I will be curious if talk of the close race will draw more interest.
Vin, you need to read a little closer. This was from two weeks before AI started.
Yes with Robin Thicke too.
I agree there are too many singing shows but people said that when the voice aired and x factor still drew good ratings in the key demos.
Sorry 🙁 Just read the date now. Yeah just saw the tv rating according to ew.com and it’s still equally as depressing and happy (but CSI did pretty damn good this week oddly enough…..maybe it has some life left in it).
This is going to sound horrible but the only thing i know about robin thicke is that he is dad is the dad from growing pains and he was a guest mentor on the voice. Unless Simon cold magically get Britney Spears and Pink like the rumors I saw online said I’m probably skipping the x factor next time around. It was good but a little too much of overkill and egos fighting one another every week
I totally abandoned The Voice for DWTS and never have watched AI. Never liked AI
Very interesting! Thanks!
I loved The Voice when it first aired. But this season, I got bored very quickly and haven’t tuned back in.
It’s a no brainer for me, Choose DWTS over The Voice. No contest its DWTS for the WIN!! 🙂
Ooooohhhh, @Heidi we’re getting fancy w/the charts! 😉
Great job! I have some down time coming up w/work so if you’d like some help pulling the info + numbers you need for the AI vs DWTS chart lemme know.
Interesting how many of you have stopped watching The Voice to view DWTS instead. A lot of my family members have done the same thing. I sent them you tube links of the dances and told them they’d miss out big time this season if they didn’t watch.
@Ms. Taz – If you link to Mjsbigblog they have the DWTS performances in their running order along with the their recaps, so only one link is needed. And that link also covers American Idol, X Factor, and The Voice, along with some other favorites. 🙂
I can’t believe NCIS is still going strong after all these seasons, I can’t get into it, but my son never misses it.
@Sandy: Thank you so much for the link. I had a checklist beside me to make sure I didn’t miss anyone when I was attaching it to the emails! This will be so much easier 😀
Hey, if you wanna dig up the total viewer numbers for AI for the last few seasons – have at it. 🙂 I got 90% of my info from Zap2It by way of this site.
I love the voice, but I gotta say I think the battle rounds could bring the show down. Why on earth do you pair two great singers against each other so that one has to be eliminated?? Seems to me, to get a strong team you would pair a strong singer with one you aren’t sure about. But whatever.
Watson, consider Sherlock on the case! 😀
I’ll email you what I dig up!
@Princess Heidi: I agree about the battle rounds. They kinda bore me. I’ve tended to notice that every judge besides Blake chooses a song that is really only good for one of the singers and is terrible for the other. Saying that, I can never hear “Pumped up kicks” the same way agai nafter Blake’s people butchered it.
@Ms. Taz – I hope you were able to find the link. That is where I always rewatch all of the performances. They also have a DWTS link at the top.
And for some reason Codebear’s premiere performances seem to be deleted now. So thank goodness I have MJ’s always in my bookmark.
Codebear also has accounts on DailyMotion – you can probably find the premiere stuff there.
@Sandy + @Heidi:
I found both of the sites with no problems and have bookmarked them. Thanks again-it is very much appreciated!
Thanks Heidi. I didn’t know that.
[…] You remember when I threatened a weekly look at the DWTS ratings to counter the chicken littles’ of DWTS reporting?? The ratings are falling the ratings are falling!! Well, this is it. In case you missed my first post on this subject, you can find it here —> DWTS Ratings Watch […]