DWTS Season 14 Week 3 Predicted Scores
This is when things get kind of dicey when it comes to predicted scores. Keeping in mind that I am only taking scores from the first four weeks of any given season as a basis of calculations for predicted scoring, you start to find holes in the data. For example: Chelsie Hightower has been had a partner that she has had to work on the Samba with in the first four weeks of any season (whether it’s because they never last that long or luck of the draw).
GAVIN DEGRAW
Dance: Rumba
Average Scores:
– Age: 21.773
– Occupation: 23.000
– Professional Partner: 21.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 22 / 7th
Comments: On paper, this is the dance that could help Gavin break out from the lower pack. The other celebs who were singers and in their 30s did really well with the Rumba (Season 9’s Mya w/ Dmitry Chaplin got a 27 and Season 11’s Brandy w/ Maksim Chmerkovskiy got a 24) so Gavin has quite the shoes (or in the case the heels) to fill. To me, a 22 doesn’t seem all that low.
DONALD DRIVER
Dance: Rumba
Average Scores:
– Age: 21.773
– Occupation: 19.500
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 21 / 9th
Comments: Unfortunately, since Peta hasn’t been on the show long enough, there isn’t much data to work from. In the meantime what I’m curious about is how other NFL players in their 30s have coped with the Rumba in the past. Apparently, not that well: Season 10’s Chad Ochocinco w/ Cheryl Burke got a 22 while Season 11’s Kurt Warner w/ Anna Trebunskaya got a 17. So how is Donald going to fare with the Rumba? I think a 21 is rather middle of the road, it might be off by a point or two though.
ROSHON FEGAN
Dance: Samba
Average Scores:
– Age: 22.000
– Occupation: N/A
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 4th
Comments: Wow, the data is weak with this one. I don’t know how but the Disney kids have managed to avoid the Samba until – at earliest – their 5th week of competition (Season 12’s Chelsea Kane w/ Mark Ballas got a 26). For the most part the Disney crew has scored at minimum a 23 on the Samba and I would be surprised if Roshon’s score isn’t higher than that.
MELISSA GILBERT
Dance: Jive
Average Scores:
– Age: 19.333
– Occupation: 20.429
– Professional Partner: 22.250
Predicted Score / Rank: 21 / 8th
Comments: The only other actress in their 40s that has done the Jive in the first four weeks of a season was way back in Season 6 w/ Marlee Matlin and her partner Fabian Sanchez, they got a 21. I personally think that a 21 might be too high for Melissa though, unless she wows us.
KATHERINE JENKINS
Dance: Waltz
Average Scores:
– Age: 20.667
– Occupation: 24.000
– Professional Partner: 23.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 3rd
Comments: Honestly, with the way that Katherine’s been performing, her scores are simply too low at this point in time. But since this is based on the numbers and data of past celebs on the show, I’ll do what I can. The only other singer in their 30s to have done the Waltz in the first four weeks of the season was Season 8’s Chuck Wicks with Julianne Hough, where they got a 20. Granted there is also Season 3’s Willa Ford with Maksim Chmerkovskiy who got a 28, but she was also in her 20s then. It’s hard to say, but I’m expecting a score higher than predicted.
GLADYS KNIGHT
Dance: Foxtrot
Average Scores:
– Age: 24.000
– Occupation: 20.000
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 22 / 4th
Comments: I think this dance will work more in Gladys favor than the Quickstep did… It would seem that the predicted scores will reflect that. Gladys is the first singer in their 20s to be on the show, in the past there have been more actors/actresses and Jerry Springer, so Gladys is treading fairly new ground at this point. She would probably get something a point or two higher, but other than that, this is fairly par for the course.
WILLIAM LEVY
Dance: Salsa
Average Scores:
– Age: 19.333
– Occupation: N/A
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 19 / 10th
Comments: The salsa has only been used on the show in four previous seasons (7, 8, 9, and 12). Actors that have done the salsa previously: Season 8’s Gilles Marini w/ Cheryl Burke where they got a 30 and Season 12’s Ralph Macchio w/ Karina Smirnoff who got a 23. Both however, did the Salsa much later in their seasons, so that isn’t a fair comparison. While I don’t believe that William would get a 19, whether whatever score he gets is well deserved, I don’t know.
MARIA MENOUNOS
Dance: Rumba
Average Scores:
– Age: 21.773
– Occupation: 23.000
– Professional Partner: 26.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 24 / 1st
Comments: Why am I not surprised that Derek’s partners would all score so high on the Rumba? Why celebs in Maria’s age group seem to have trouble with the Rumba in general, doesn’t make sense to me. In any case, the score, can be considered realistic all things considered… but I also think the score may be below that, but a point or two.
SHERRI SHEPHERD
Dance: Rumba
Average Scores:
– Age: 20.962
– Occupation: 23.000
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 22 / 6th
Comments: Oooh wee! Sherri’s going to have a hot time tonight! I’m sure for a chance to do whatever she wants with Val on that dance floor and get away with it, she is going to do with flying colors. Because of that, I say she’s going to score a point, maybe two above the predicted score. I doubt she’s going to want to screw this dance up, especially not with such good looking arm candy like Val.
JACK WAGNER
Dance: Samba
Average Scores:
– Age: 18.000
– Occupation: N/A
– Professional Partner: 17.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 18 / 11th
Comments: Can I say I’m worried. I sense trouble with a capital “T” which rhymes with “D” and that stands for Dance (anybody catch the reference?). Anyway, I really am worried for Jack on this dance, he already had trouble with the Jive last week, the Samba isn’t going to be much better. And unfortunately that 18 seems just about right unless Jack really comes out swinging.
JALEEL WHITE
Dance: Rumba
Average Scores:
– Age: 21.773
– Occupation: 23.667
– Professional Partner: 22.500
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 2nd
Comments: It’s a slow, smooth dance… and Jaleel’s is a very special brand of dark chocolate. He did better in a smoother dance (Foxtrot) over an upbeat one (Jive)… but I don’t know… portraying romance is a lot harder than it looks. Still I have high hopes for Jaleel… I expect to see him scores high.
Here you have it! My predicted scores for the night! Come back and see how I fare on tonight score card… π
Here’s a clip of Val & Sherri’s rumba:
http://theview.abc.go.com/blog/hey-hows-sherri-and-vals-rumba-going
wow, I don’t preview any of this happening.
To me the ranking will be:
1st- Katherine – 27
2nd – William – 26 or 25
3rd – Roshon/Maria – 25
5th – Gladis – 24
6th- Jaleel/Sherri/Donald – 23
9th – Gavin – 22 or 21
10th – Jack/Melissa – 21
And the audience votes will depend on the story. I think Gavin’s can beat Jack and Melissa’s, so… one of these two are going to leave this week… IMO.
Thanks Marianya! I always love these. That would be cool is Derek and Maria top the night. I’d like to see Donald and Peta at the top too. I’ll be surprised if William scores that low?
I’m going to guess the scores will go like this;
Jack and Anna β 23 (8,8,7)
Maria and Derek β 28 (10,9,9)
Roshon and Chelsie β 29 (10,10,9)
Sherri and Val β 25 (9,8,8)
Gavin and Karina β 20 (7,6,7)
Katherine and Mark β 29 (10,10,9)
Gladys and Tristan β 21 (7,7,7)
Melissa and Maks β 24 (8,8,8)
Jaleel and Kym β 25 (8,9,8)
William and Cheryl β 28 (9,9,10)
Donald and Peta β 28 (9,9,10)
Didn’t Hines & Kym do a salsa in season 12? Was that the dance after their A. Tango?
Carlos,
After Len praised that nightmare jive #2 of Hope’s, anything is possible. Melissa may pull it off and be helped by going in the second part of the show.
Marianya, thanks for the post.
I must admit something…. I kind of understand the process you use to make your predictions, but the whole numbers thing? Not really.
A question I have, is the predicted score and ranking for Maria and Derek, and your guesstimate score for them. Maybe I am completely NOT understanding your process (but I do appreciate the post) but, how could your ranking guess for M/D be 1st, when you are guessing that they’ll score a few points lower than your prediction?
I am definitely not a numbers person, and obviously cannot understand simple logic that you use!
@Lori – The “predicted score” and “rank” is purely off calculations.
“Comments” is my opinion of the predicted score… I try not to include opinions on rank b/c that’ll just drive me batty.
Does that help?
@Lori – “Comments” rather is my more ‘in-depth’ analysis of the predicted score + personal opinion/commentary. So I may not always agree w/ the score the calculations give me, but I put it up there b/c… well… that’s what the calculations give me!
@Sherry LOL that’s true!! ahahahah but For god’s sake, I hope Len doesn’t! =]
I understood your post, Marianya. And thanks for your job.
Interesting Marianya! Thanks for your hard work. You are usally on point or close too. π
Oh this is my favorite part! This is how I think it’s going to pano ut:
Donald and Peta: (8, 8, 8)
Gavin and Karina: (7, 8, 8)
Maria and Derek: (9, 9, 9)
M+M: (8, 7, 7)
Sherri and Val: (8, 8, 8)
William and Cheryl: (9, 10, 10)
Jack and Anna: (8,8,9)
Jaleel and Kym: (8, 9, 10)
Gladys and Thristan: (8, 7, 8)
Roshon and Chelsie: (10,10,9)
Damn forgot Katherine:
(9, 10, 10)
There’s no way Maria and Derek will get a 10 or anywhere close to 1st place if they are dancing 2nd. And this is after already dancing 1st two weeks ago. The show saves it’s favorites and the high scores for last. It’s sad, but it’s obvious Maria & Derek are not a priority couple for DWTS this season.
I could be wrong, but I don’t think that running order has much to do with scores except on Night number 1 – then it’s the first dance or two is always underscored. If the people at the end of the show get high scores, that’s likely due to them putting the judges pet in that spot. And this week, Donald is there, but I don’t think he’s made it to judges pet just yet. That’s William and Katherine….one for good reason and one…not so much. π
Sadly Maria and Derek are not a priority couple. So I expect that first ten to go to their princess Katherine. Was going to insert a court jester joke about Mark, lol.
Katherine is going to get at least a 29 IMO. No way that waltz, right up her alley, is not going to get tens.
Maria is not a priority contestant?
She got to lead off the season than got great scores and most improved last week.
And you think those three 7s she got in Week 1 showed “priority”??? Don’t think so!
Compared to Will who got 8 s for little cha cha and Katherine who is being touted as the second coming of Kristi, Brooke and Nicole all combined. As if Mya, Nicole and Jennifer did not dance amazing jives in week 2.
I don’t think Maria deserved higher than 7’s for her cha cha even if other contestants were over scored or have been pimped more.
I really liked this post. Thanks.
Well Katherine so deserved those 10’s, omg Mark is such a brilliant dancer & created a gorgeous tribute for Katherine to her father.
Also I wonder what is going on between Derek & Maria, I know she has a BF so not sure there lol but that was hot!
Also I think Mark & Katherine have so much chemistry also, I think she would be good for him, keep him more calm.
Lisa…it’s called dance chemistry π
So the leader board is as follows:
Mark and Katherine: 29
William and Cheryl: 28
Derek and Maria: 27
Donald and Peta: 26
Chelsie and Roshon: 25
Jaleel and Kym: 25
Jack and Anna: 24
Gladys and Tristan: 24
Gavin and Karina: 24
Val and Sherri: 24
Maks and Melissa: 24
Can someone please tell me why William and Cheryl got a 10 from Bruno?? The man almost feel on his behind at the end of the dance and still got a 10! I bet Bruno is just giving him to scores for next week for William can strip more on the show! God I’m ready for this couple to get ELIMINATED! Hopefully tomorrow night! BTW Maria and Derek should have gotten 10’s from the judges! and Katherine and Mark slipped a little bit tonight for me. Could have had alittle more in hold. But Maria and Derek – WOW! WOW! WOW!
@AdamTaylor2011: I am usually the person who hates William but as much as I ahte to say it that was pretty awesome.
@Adam:
It is simple (and obvious)…. Bruno wants William as his b*tch!
Can you believe these scores?! There have been Week 3’s where a 24 would be a very respected middle of the road score – tonight it’s a five way tie for last!
I think if Mark had added about 8 to 12 more counts of hold, Katherine would have received a 10 from Lyn as well.
Also, was that a waltz to a four/four song, not three/four?
On a side note, everyone was really good but I think that someone who didn’t really do weel at first was my fav tonight. Gavin might have a chance after all.
Geez, I was waiting for a wardrobe malfunction from Melissa… Holy Cow, way too much out in the open…. It looked terrible.
Once again, I am baffled as to how the producers of the show (or whoever picks the music and matches it up with the dances) obviously knows so very little about the sound and the count of each dance that they can’t tell by listening to it what song it will go with! Not only as a dancer, but as a musician, it drives me nuts!
I enjoy Sherri’s effervescent personality, but I feel she has been overscored each week.
As much as I don’t want to say this, I think Roshon and Chelsie will be going home tomorrow. One point is not a big separation, and I think they probably have the smallest fan base.
So much overscoring. Made Katherine and will’s 10 meaningless. Also thought Katherine could have been in hold more and her posture was off to me. Not as good as I expected from her and here crying again.
Donald was great as was Maria. Loved Derek’s choreo and Donald chose the perfect song for such a touching story. One sweet day!
Last week I would have said for sure Gavin was leaving but after tonight, I’m stumped as to who could be leaving us…. I would like all of them to stay if it meant William would leave. Can’t come soon enough for me.
@Vin:
ITA- I have to give credit where credit is due. I’m still ticked off about Gavin’s comment last week. However, tonight he did a good job. His best dance to date and Karina’s opening choreo was right on. If he can do another dance next wk on par w/ tonight or better it, then I’m willing to give him a chance. It was definitely a comeback for him tonight.
I too worry about Roshon leaving tomorrow. He made the same mistake Kristin Cavalari made last year and picked a light weight story on a night with heavy handed stories. He could easily get lost in the shuffle especially being virtually tied with everyone else. It was a fun dance but an imitation.
Sorry but Jaleel just creeps me out. He danced a dance to his alter ego on TV? Again something about him just strikes me as very narcissistic.
I worry that Tristan’s “old lady” choreo is going to get Gladys lost in the shuffle very soon.
Sherri’s story moved me the most but I still fear she is vulnerable. Katherine was very strong. As were Maria, William, and Donald. I don’t see them going anywhere for a long time.
Melissa was better but still pretty weak IMO. I must say I really liked Jack’s samba because I LOVED his cheesy 80’s song with it!!
And so much for Gavin doesn’t care! He is a true non dancer learning to dance and he has gotten better every week. Karina is doing a great job for him. And out of all the emotion tonight I felt Gavin’s was the most genuine and not forced. Hope he stays in another week!
My picks as to who may go? For the men Roshon and Jack. For the girls? Sherri or Melissa.
@Sandy:
My guess is Anna and Jack or Maks and Melissa. Jack’s was sweet but not enough wow factor. Melissa looked unsteady and stiff tonight. Am I the only one who is baffled by the choreo on this one? Slow, fast, slow then fast again? I know Maks was portraying how the music went, but I didn’t get a jive vibe at all.
Ms. Taz, what did Gavin say last week? I heard him tell Martina that it was an honor to share the stage with her, but that’s it????
@Meggie:
Tom first asked Martina what it would mean for her to stay and carry on w/her journey. You could tell she wanted to truly stay. Then he asked Gavin what he would do to improve for nxt wks dance if he stayed and his answer came off as glib “I’d improve 5 out of 10 points”. I was stunned. Here is was someone getting thrown out who truly wanted to be there and then you have him stay?! On top of that he rubbed it in w/what he said to Martina about sharing the stage w/her.
I heard him say that, but I thought he was just putting himself down, like that’s the best he could do – a no confidence in himself thing. How did you take it?? (Sorry, I really don’t understand. π )
@Andrea:
I find Personal Story/Memorable Year nights to be the hardest to judge. We have people saying “oh great another rumba”, and then “finally a salsa, samba or jive!”. Then the hard part….do you reward dancing, emotional impact, a combination of both, or who is your fav @ that point in the competition.
For me, take the emotional end out of it. If it was something that was the hardest for you to overcome then you can’t compare it to someone who views their situation the same way.
Like the saying goes “walk a mile in my shoes”….
@Meggie: It is OK Hun, no worries! π
My perception was that was a verbal expression of him not being commited to this whole thing. Your pov though could also be correct. He definitely proved tonight that he dedicated himself to the process this wk. I’m just waiting to see if it continues or if it was simply because of how personal it was.
@Ms Taz: Thanks for explaining! π
@Meggie:
No Problem Hun! Anytime! Don’t be shy in asking. I would much rather have that than a misunderstanding. Besides, it is always fascinating to me how 2 people can see something and yet walk away with two completely different pov’s. I hadn’t even thought along the lines you had until you said it! π
I’m hugely biased toward Gavin so perhaps not the best interpreter π but I have never doubted his dedication. I don’t think he had any idea of what he was getting into–he has said so himself–but until this week he was touring, rehearsing, and dancing concurrently. Karina blogged about traveling for hours to concerts and how that was getting really old. Along the way, a couple shows were postponed due to “vocal rest” (read: exhaustion), and his music fans were pretty PO’d, probably even withholding their votes. I figured he might actually flub his DWTS performance at that point just to get out, rather than risk his day job, but as stated, he has continued to improve.
In the end, I don’t think DWTS was the best move for him, career-wise–most of his audience is probably watching “The Voice”–but I think he’s done pretty well for a complete novice. And obviously, I hope he stays another week!
Meggie, I don’t think Taz understood what it actually means…it’s a phrase…” βIβd improve 5 out of 10 pointsβ.
He meant he’d work/practice harder to greatly improve.” It means not half bad, but not half good.
He was admitting he didn’t do his best and need to do much better….about 50%.
Hope that helps. Have a great day-going to nap after voting.
Marie, Gavin has said that he did the show to help with his feelings of insecurity—he feels more secure behind/sitting at the piano. He wants to be able to do more of like he did on Leno—get up and sway, groove around the stage as he sings. He is extremely introverted. Joey (bro) is more of an extrovert. He’s a decent guy. Proud to have him represent our hometown.
@Ms. Taz : Trust me I was equally as surprised as you were. Really expected him to flope then next thing you know I’m voting like a maniac for him.