DWTS Season 14 – Week 4 Predicted Scores
Now we are nearing the midway point of the season. For anyone that noticed my comments in previous posts, I have broken up every season in “thirds” for easier calculations. What do I mean by this? What I have been trying to do is that for the first “third” of a season, I only use the first four weeks of scores to come up with a predicted score for the first four weeks of the current season. Consequently when it reached Week Four, I’ll shift into using the middle four weeks of all previous seasons (10 week seasons that is) and use that as a basis for predictions. The idea is that using scores from later in the season (ie Week 7 thru 10) would not make sense for predict scores for the beginning of the season (ie Week 1 thru 3). In this way I had hoped that the predicted scores would come out to be closer to accurate than if I were to use scores willy-nilly from any point of any season.
Unfortunately not all seasons are the same length – like how not all casts are the same size – so I had to find some “normalization” for the length of the season. So I broke up a season into “thirds”. In a ten week season:
– “First Third” includes Weeks 1 through 4
– “Middle Third” includes Weeks 4 through 7
– “Last Third” includes Weeks 7 through 10
While in Season 1’s six-week season:
– “First Third” includes Weeks 1 and 2
– “Middle Third” includes Weeks 3 and 4
– “Last Third” includes Weeks 5 and 6
Why is there an overlap of Week 4 and 7 in the ten-week season format? I did that specifically to keep it semi-realistic of the skill level of all the celebs, and to have a decent broad-base of the “thirds” rather than a more cut-throat approach. Since this is the first season that I’m testing these particular calculations out… we’ll see my season finale scorecard fares in the off-season.
But enough with my blabbering… onward to the predicted scores!
ROSHON FEGAN
Dance: Viennese Waltz
Average Scores:
– Age: 22.000
– Occupation: N/A
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 21 / 10th
Comments: Oddly enough, the only Disney kid to have any trouble with the Viennese Waltz was Season 7’s Cody Linley with Edyta Śliwińska (who was subbing for the then injured Julianne Hough), but he received a 22. Season 11’s Kyle Massey and Season 12’s Chelsea Kane received a 27 and 26 respectively… so I highly doubt that Roshon is going to score lower than Cody, will he score as high as Kyle or Chelsea? It’s rather hard to say considering that Chelsie has only done a Viennese Waltz at the beginning of the season (Season 10 with Jake Pavelka for 20 and Season 11 with Michael Bolton for 16) or at the end of the season (Season 8 with Ty Murray for 25). Middle of the season will be interesting for this pairing.
GLADYS KNIGHT
Dance: Tango
Average Scores:
– Age: 23.000
– Occupation: 26.000
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 9th
Comments: Being the first singer in her 60s to be on the show, there isn’t much data to work off of (how about virtually none), the closest would be Season 5’s Wayne Newton with Cheryl Burke… but they got an 18 and Gladys is nowhere near as stiff as Wayne Newton. I do think in some ways the 23 is realistic, give or take a point.
MELISSA GILBERT
Dance: Paso Doble
Average Scores:
– Age: 23.071
– Occupation: 23.750
– Professional Partner: 25.500
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 8th
Comments: Looking at other actresses in their 40s that have done the Paso Doble (Season 3’s Vivica A Fox with Nick Kosovich received a 24 while Season 10’s Pamela Anderson with Damian Whitewood received a 21), I saw this score should be about right. Moreso because the other two actresses have done their Paso Dobles at around the same time period (Week 4 and 3 respectively). Very rarely so I agree with a predicted score like I do with this one.
DONALD DRIVER
Dance: Paso Doble
Average Scores:
– Age: 24.364
– Occupation: 22.429
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 7th
Comments: Generally, NFL players do a respectable job on the Paso Doble. Their scores ranging from (and I’m only counting NFL players that are in their 30s) an 18 by Season 11’s Kurt Warner with Anna Trebunskaya on Week 6 to Season 6’s Jason Taylor with Edyta Śliwińska on Week 7 for a 26 (I’m not counting their repeat performance in the finale of that season). However, we do not know how Peta is in teaching the Paso Doble, but if history is any indicator, I don’t think Donald will have any problems with the Paso Doble as long as he channels all that aggression from the football field onto the ballroom floor.
SHERRI SHEPHERD
Dance: Tango
Average Scores:
– Age: 23.429
– Occupation: 23.500
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 6th
Comments: Well Sherri’s been on the dance floor thrice and she still has her boobs intact. Who knows, maybe with the Tango she’ll lose a buttocks. In any case, there have been three other hosts/TV personality in their 40s that have done the Tango: Season 3’s Giselle Fernandez with Jonathan Roberts received a 22, from Season 13 Ricki Lake and Derek Hough received a 29 while Carson Kressley and Anna Trebunskaya got a 23. Even just focusing on the females won’t help much because they are all over the map. But if Sherri’s personality is any indication, I’m sure she will do just fine on the ballroom with Val and be as giddy as a schoolgirl when she realizes just how much up into Val she gets to be this time around.
GAVIN DEGRAW
Dance: Tango
Average Scores:
– Age: 24.433
– Occupation: 26.000
– Professional Partner: 25.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 5th
Comments: If Gavin keeps going with his weekly improvement, then I could see this score being a reality. However the more pragmatic side of me is thinking that his actual score is going to be at least a point, probably two less than the predicted score.
JALEEL WHITE
Dance: Tango
Average Scores:
– Age: 24.433
– Occupation: 24.600
– Professional Partner: 26.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 24 / 4th
Comments: Apparently actors in their 30s tend to do rather well on the Tango (Season 13’s David Arquette with Kym Johnson received a 25, Season 3’s Joey Lawrence with Edyta received a 28… I’m not counting Mario Lopez’s tango with Karina Smirnoff because it was marked down for breaking out of hold and as thus skews the calculations), as in above mid-20s for the most part. As long as Jaleel gets his act together, he should be fine.
WILLIAM LEVY
Dance: Jive
Average Scores:
– Age: 25.273
– Occupation: 26.500
– Professional Partner: 26.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 24 / 3rd
Comments: Interestingly enough, previous celeb actors in their 30s have been all over the spectrum when it comes to Jive ranging from an 18 by Season 13’s David Arquette with Kym Johnson to a 27 by Season 3’s Mario Lopez with Karina Smirnoff. So a prediction of 24 is a safe, middle-of-the-road score for William Levy. Though it could very well be higher than that.
KATHERINE JENKINS
Dance: Paso Doble
Average Scores:
– Age: 24.364
– Occupation: 20.667
– Professional Partner: 28.333
Predicted Score / Rank: 24 / 2nd
Comments: Katherine has been proving herself to be a very talent contender this season, but the Paso Doble is a whole other animal. Being sweet, sexy or sentimental has nothing against being aggressive, and powerful… her technique is bound to be spot on, but what about her characterization? Only time will tell. Knowing that, I’m hoping she’ll score at least a couple points above the predicted score.
MARIA MENOUNOS
Dance: Tango
Average Scores:
– Age: 24.433
– Occupation: 23.500
– Professional Partner: 28.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 25 / 1st
Comments: Eeep, the only other two hosts that have done the Tango was Season 7’s Brooke Burke with Derek Hough who received a 28 on Week 8 and Season 10’s Erin Andrews with Maksim Chmerkovskiy who earned a 19.5 (it was a two score show and I just averaged it out) on Week 4. Again the 25 is more of a middle-of-the-road score, but not too bad. I hope her ribs hold out. 🙁
Wow, I’m shocked to see Roshon in last? 😯
EEK. I’m hoping that is not how it ends up for Chelsie and Roshon.
Gotta ask – how is all of this overscoring affecting your predicted scores?
My rank:
Katherine – 28
Maria – 27
Roshon – 25
Gladys – 24
Melissa – 24
Gavin – 24
Jaleel – 24
William – 24
Donald – 23
Sherri – 23
And I think Melissa or Jaleel is going to leave
Can’t wait to see how tonight’s scores compare with above.
On another note, Karina was a blog at People.com about her two rehearsal’s this week. I cannot wait to see her dance with Jose. While I don’t know the song, I know it will be beautiful. Good luck to them.
# Voguerista , Carlos…. as you know..i love this game…so..my predicted scores:
#Roshon&Chelsie – 8-8-8
#Katherine&Mark – 9-9-10
#Gladys&Tristan – 8-7-8
#Melissa&Maks – 8-7-8
#Sheeri&Val – 7-7-8
#William&Cheryl – 8-6-9
#Jaleel&Kym – 8-8-8
#Donald&Peta – 8-8-9
#Maria&Derek – 8-8-9
#Gavin&Karina – 7-7-8
Of course…i hope i am dead wrong about the team of my heart and Maria & Derek get at least 27 tonight…
I dunno, those predicting high scores for Katherine forget about Len the great and powerful Oz. If Mark is as out there with his staging and choreo as it sounds like he might by, then Len might give him trouble. Yes, it’s a theme night…but this is LEN we’re talking about. How long do we expect his good mood to last?? Or is he going to let everything slide again tonight?
Roshen very good dancers got 10 score this season! To dance with you
@Krystal – huh?
Wow, great post! I love the stats posts… 🙂
It’ll be interesting to see how close the predicted scores come to tonight – the prediction calls for only a 4-point spread between 1st and 10th…
Hi
I’m new:). Its been a couple of weeks since I came across this website. Well, I don’t understand some of the things on the site because my language is not English and the site looks kinda confusing to me. But I hope I’ll get the hang of it soon 😀 . Now, I guess I can write my predictions about scores:
Donald & Peta 9-9-9 (27)
Maria & Derek 9-9-9 (27)
Katherine & Mark 9-8-9 (26)
Roshon & Chelsie 9-8-9 (26)
Jaleel & Kym 9-8-9 (26)
Sherri & Val – 8-8-9 (25)
William & Cheryl 8-8-8 (24)
Melissa & Maksim 8-7-8 (23)
Gavin & Karina 7-7-8 (22)
Gladys & Tristan 7-7-7 (21)
Of course, its not my fave list, just predictions.
I like the site by the way. I hope its ok if I’ll ask a few(or a lot of 😀 ) things later. Because sometimes I really don’t understand what I’m reading because of my English. And please tell me if my comment(or my predictions, lol) doesn’t make sense to you at all 🙂 .
Yeah I will say it again……HATE rock week! Not inspired by the rock songs with the dances at all.
Hola people!!! I’m back! I’m been with family and without aces to a computer for almost a week. Missed all you guys and I got back in time to see everyone expect Katherine and Sherri. Fist impressions: Jaleel came out in week one and I though he was the frontrunner and was worried Donald would sort live in his shadow and I think things have changed, Jaleel is great and danced a good Tango but MAN Donald kicked that Paso in the pants. 🙂 It was awesome, i havn’t seen such a powerful Paso since i dont know when. Galdys song wore me out just hearing it. Gosh. Hard song and what up with the Tom, Carrie Ann, Bruno, and Len Freaky supersized Quartet. 😛 Anyway, I laughed SO hard at Donald in the granny sweater. LOL!
Wow what a screw job to Gladys. How did they think she would be able to dance the tango to that song?
Donald is “In It to Win It”. Holy Cow that was HOT! HOT! HOT!
The best part of William’s package was the two gay rocker dudes. 😛 On with the butt kissing…
Or not. 😀
Must say Tristan looks good rocked out.
WOW on Donald’s Paso.
LOVED Mark all taped up while Paul Stanley danced with Katherine.
I hate these themed nights. It ruins the dancing. Ugh some of the music choices were ridiculous,
Besides Roshon and Maria I was unimpressed. Roshon’s Waltz was dreamy. Maria had the best tango. Getting sick of the injury complaints. Seems to always originate with Derek”s partners.
I thought Sherri, Melissa, and Gladys were all pretty bad and I think one of them will go tomorrow. I’m leaning toward Sherri seeing she went first. Her outfit was not flattering and her tango just had little to ot. I do wonder what effect that Tom’s comments about Melissa going to the hospital will have. Will that encourage votes or discourage it? Hmmm. Gladys sadly can’t keep up. And BR for a Tango? Please.
Gavin looked hot tonight with the eyeliner but his frame was off. I do think he avoids elimination tomorrow again. His line was the only line I got buy signals on. The power of the pimp slot.
Jaleel is the only one I do not like. I would love for Sherri and Gladys to get more votes than him tonight to knock him out of the competition.
Cheryl is so focused on taking off William’s shirt that maybe she should focus on them completing their routines cleanly. Clean up the damn sloppiness please.
Katherine was not great but still top 3. Her fan base may finally be tested this week.
Donald was good but like Hines Ward is overrated. Just not that impressed that an NFL player has strength and power and intensity and charisma. And can Carrie Ann ever complain about a lift again? Donald took Peta for a nice ride in the air there.
I was so excited William was finally getting the scores he deserved, and then Bruno gave him an 8. Even tge biggest William fans should be able to see it shouldve been 3 7’s. And Len, no one cares about crossing your feet on that instep. I see why he took off for the stumble, but he ruined a perfectly good 27 for Roshon. And Maria. Buzzkill…..jk, I think.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acpTiDMRkDk
Just saw this making the rounds online.
Oh yeah, only Derek’s partners have injuries and they really milk them for all they’re worth. :::rolls eyes::: Sour grapes.
Bruno was scoring with his vagina when it comes to William – that was ridiculous. And no, I don’t agree that Katherine was top 3 tonight in dancing. She was good, but not great. Not aggressive enough.
I still say Donald is going to win this thing and it will be well deserved. Love him. Love Maria too, but don’t know that she has the juice to get by someone like Donald. And CAI is right – I think this is the hottest chemistry Derek has ever had with a partner, and I def include Shannon in that.
Oh I forgot. We can’t say anything even remotely deemed as negative at a Derek Hough partnership on here. I apologize.
Sure you can, Andrea – but you have to expect sarcasm when you make ridiculous comments that have no basis in fact.
Not to mention that you are one of the most negative posters we have on this site.
If you want to have a “discussion” where no one disputes you, you might want to go elsewhere.
Yes, Andrea, isn’t Derek lucky to have had partners with injuries the past few seasons!? It seems like it’s the producers and Brooke who are the only ones who actually want to talk about Maria’s injuries on the show. It’s sure not Maria and Derek. I think that girl will dance through anything! Just imagine what she could do with two healthy feet. Lucky for your favourite that she doesn’t, I’d say!
Wow…. so let me get this straight, Andrea. Is the narrative now “Derek gets ‘the broken ones’, who are ringers because they’re broken”??? Like, we’ve invented a new ringer class – the “sympathy ringer”? Jeez….. 🙁 I never fail to be surprised at the level of intellectual gymnastics some go through to arrive at their pre-conceived notions.