## DWTS Season 14 – Week 4 Predicted Scores

Now we are nearing the midway point of the season. For anyone that noticed my comments in previous posts, I have broken up every season in “thirds” for easier calculations. What do I mean by this? What I have been trying to do is that for the first “third” of a season, I only use the first four weeks of scores to come up with a predicted score for the first four weeks of the current season. Consequently when it reached Week Four, I’ll shift into using the middle four weeks of all previous seasons (10 week seasons that is) and use that as a basis for predictions. The idea is that using scores from later in the season (ie Week 7 thru 10) would not make sense for predict scores for the beginning of the season (ie Week 1 thru 3). In this way I had hoped that the predicted scores would come out to be closer to accurate than if I were to use scores willy-nilly from any point of any season.

Unfortunately not all seasons are the same length – like how not all casts are the same size – so I had to find some “normalization” for the length of the season. So I broke up a season into “thirds”. In a ten week season:
– “First Third” includes Weeks 1 through 4
– “Middle Third” includes Weeks 4 through 7
– “Last Third” includes Weeks 7 through 10

While in Season 1’s six-week season:
– “First Third” includes Weeks 1 and 2
– “Middle Third” includes Weeks 3 and 4
– “Last Third” includes Weeks 5 and 6

Why is there an overlap of Week 4 and 7 in the ten-week season format? I did that specifically to keep it semi-realistic of the skill level of all the celebs, and to have a decent broad-base of the “thirds” rather than a more cut-throat approach. Since this is the first season that I’m testing these particular calculations out… we’ll see my season finale scorecard fares in the off-season.

But enough with my blabbering… onward to the predicted scores!

ROSHON FEGAN
Dance: Viennese Waltz
Average Scores:
– Age: 22.000
– Occupation: N/A
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 21 / 10th
Comments: Oddly enough, the only Disney kid to have any trouble with the Viennese Waltz was Season 7’s Cody Linley with Edyta Śliwińska (who was subbing for the then injured Julianne Hough), but he received a 22. Season 11’s Kyle Massey and Season 12’s Chelsea Kane received a 27 and 26 respectively… so I highly doubt that Roshon is going to score lower than Cody, will he score as high as Kyle or Chelsea? It’s rather hard to say considering that Chelsie has only done a Viennese Waltz at the beginning of the season (Season 10 with Jake Pavelka for 20 and Season 11 with Michael Bolton for 16) or at the end of the season (Season 8 with Ty Murray for 25). Middle of the season will be interesting for this pairing.

Dance: Tango
Average Scores:
– Age: 23.000
– Occupation: 26.000
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 9th
Comments: Being the first singer in her 60s to be on the show, there isn’t much data to work off of (how about virtually none), the closest would be Season 5’s Wayne Newton with Cheryl Burke… but they got an 18 and Gladys is nowhere near as stiff as Wayne Newton. I do think in some ways the 23 is realistic, give or take a point.

MELISSA GILBERT
Dance: Paso Doble
Average Scores:
– Age: 23.071
– Occupation: 23.750
– Professional Partner: 25.500
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 8th
Comments: Looking at other actresses in their 40s that have done the Paso Doble (Season 3’s Vivica A Fox with Nick Kosovich received a 24 while Season 10’s Pamela Anderson with Damian Whitewood received a 21), I saw this score should be about right. Moreso because the other two actresses have done their Paso Dobles at around the same time period (Week 4 and 3 respectively). Very rarely so I agree with a predicted score like I do with this one.

DONALD DRIVER
Dance: Paso Doble
Average Scores:
– Age: 24.364
– Occupation: 22.429
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 7th
Comments: Generally, NFL players do a respectable job on the Paso Doble. Their scores ranging from (and I’m only counting NFL players that are in their 30s) an 18 by Season 11’s Kurt Warner with Anna Trebunskaya on Week 6 to Season 6’s Jason Taylor with Edyta Śliwińska on Week 7 for a 26 (I’m not counting their repeat performance in the finale of that season). However, we do not know how Peta is in teaching the Paso Doble, but if history is any indicator, I don’t think Donald will have any problems with the Paso Doble as long as he channels all that aggression from the football field onto the ballroom floor.

SHERRI SHEPHERD
Dance: Tango
Average Scores:
– Age: 23.429
– Occupation: 23.500
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 6th
Comments: Well Sherri’s been on the dance floor thrice and she still has her boobs intact. Who knows, maybe with the Tango she’ll lose a buttocks. In any case, there have been three other hosts/TV personality in their 40s that have done the Tango: Season 3’s Giselle Fernandez with Jonathan Roberts received a 22, from Season 13 Ricki Lake and Derek Hough received a 29 while Carson Kressley and Anna Trebunskaya got a 23. Even just focusing on the females won’t help much because they are all over the map. But if Sherri’s personality is any indication, I’m sure she will do just fine on the ballroom with Val and be as giddy as a schoolgirl when she realizes just how much up into Val she gets to be this time around.

GAVIN DEGRAW
Dance: Tango
Average Scores:
– Age: 24.433
– Occupation: 26.000
– Professional Partner: 25.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 23 / 5th
Comments: If Gavin keeps going with his weekly improvement, then I could see this score being a reality. However the more pragmatic side of me is thinking that his actual score is going to be at least a point, probably two less than the predicted score.

JALEEL WHITE
Dance: Tango
Average Scores:
– Age: 24.433
– Occupation: 24.600
– Professional Partner: 26.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 24 / 4th
Comments: Apparently actors in their 30s tend to do rather well on the Tango (Season 13’s David Arquette with Kym Johnson received a 25, Season 3’s Joey Lawrence with Edyta received a 28… I’m not counting Mario Lopez’s tango with Karina Smirnoff because it was marked down for breaking out of hold and as thus skews the calculations), as in above mid-20s for the most part. As long as Jaleel gets his act together, he should be fine.

WILLIAM LEVY
Dance: Jive
Average Scores:
– Age: 25.273
– Occupation: 26.500
– Professional Partner: 26.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 24 / 3rd
Comments: Interestingly enough, previous celeb actors in their 30s have been all over the spectrum when it comes to Jive ranging from an 18 by Season 13’s David Arquette with Kym Johnson to a 27 by Season 3’s Mario Lopez with Karina Smirnoff. So a prediction of 24 is a safe, middle-of-the-road score for William Levy. Though it could very well be higher than that.

KATHERINE JENKINS
Dance: Paso Doble
Average Scores:
– Age: 24.364
– Occupation: 20.667
– Professional Partner: 28.333
Predicted Score / Rank: 24 / 2nd
Comments: Katherine has been proving herself to be a very talent contender this season, but the Paso Doble is a whole other animal. Being sweet, sexy or sentimental has nothing against being aggressive, and powerful… her technique is bound to be spot on, but what about her characterization? Only time will tell. Knowing that, I’m hoping she’ll score at least a couple points above the predicted score.

MARIA MENOUNOS
Dance: Tango
Average Scores:
– Age: 24.433
– Occupation: 23.500
– Professional Partner: 28.000
Predicted Score / Rank: 25 / 1st
Comments: Eeep, the only other two hosts that have done the Tango was Season 7’s Brooke Burke with Derek Hough who received a 28 on Week 8 and Season 10’s Erin Andrews with Maksim Chmerkovskiy who earned a 19.5 (it was a two score show and I just averaged it out) on Week 4. Again the 25 is more of a middle-of-the-road score, but not too bad. I hope her ribs hold out. 🙁