DWTS Season 14 Stats Class – Week 10: The Finals!

Here we go, the last week of the season. Week 10. The following are the dances that the couples are slated to do over the course of Monday/Tuesday:
– Judges Choice: the judges get choose a dance that they would like to the couples to conquer again and the couples will perform it to new music and new choreography
– Freestyle: The anything goes dance… do I really need to describe this to you guys?
– 24-hour Challenge: The couples are allowed to pick a dance but are not given the music until 24-hours before Tuesday night’s show (something similar to the dance off where couples are working on routines/dances the night before Tuesday night’s show)

One thing I want to gripe about is why not have the couple do a dance that they have yet to do? For example Donald has set to do the Salsa, while William is missing a Waltz and Katherine the Tango… I think it would be fairer to give them all new dances… but that’s just me. Ah well. In any case:

DISCLAIMER: At the time of this writing, according to Wikipedia Katherine and Mark are doing the Rumba for their “judges choice” dance, so if there are any changes I may not be able to get to them prior to the show time… and I apologize.

UPDATE: I have updated the Predicted Scores with Katherine’s dance the Paso Doble

Dance 1: Cha-Cha
Average Scores:
– Age: 27.190
– Occupation: 24.500
– Professional Partner: 27.000
Predicted Score: 26

Dance 2: Freestyle
Average Scores:
– Age: 28.059
– Occupation: 28.000
– Professional Partner: 28.600
Predicted Score: 28

Predicted Rank: 3rd
Comments: Getting a dance that he did earlier in the season bodes well for William, since he did a Cha-Cha in Week 1 there is a very good chance that he could show off just how much he has improved since then. The other two actors in their 30s that did the Cha-Cha this late in the season:
– Season 3’s Mario Lopez got a 29
– Season 13’s David Arquette got a 24
Personally William is a stronger dancer than David, but not the same caliber as Mario… so getting a 29 would be difficult for me to fathom unless he knocks it out of the park. As for the freestyle:
– Season 3’s Mario Lopez received a 30
– Season 8’s Gilles Marini received a 28
Ironically, both ended up being runners up in their respective seasons… William could end up being a runner up in the current season, but it is hard to tell at this juncture.

Dance 1: Rumba Paso Doble
Average Scores:
– Age: 26.909 27.667
– Occupation: 26.000 28.333
– Professional Partner: 30.000 27.500
Predicted Score: 28

Dance 2: Freestyle
Average Scores:
– Age: 28.059
– Occupation: 27.000
– Professional Partner: 28.750
Predicted Score: 28

Predicted Rank: 2nd
Comments: This is very good for Katherine since the Paso Doble was her lowest scoring dance of the season with a 21 on Week 4 which was Rock Night. This would allow Katherine lots of room for improvement and a chance to redeem herself. When comparing with those that have done the Paso Doble this late in the season:
– Season 8’s Lil Kim received a 28
– Season 9’s Mya received a 30
– Season 11’s Brandy received a 27
It would seem that Katherine is in pretty good company and on the path to do rather well in this go around. In regards to the freestyle, on the other hand, only Season 9’s Mya made it to the finals and got a 27 on her freestyle. Katherine is a very strong technical dancer and has been growing into her own personality-wise, so I’m hoping it would carry her through to at least the top two.

Dance 1: Argentine Tango
Average Scores:
– Age: 28.667
– Occupation: 30.000
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 29

Dance 2: Freestyle
Average Scores:
– Age: 28.059
– Occupation: 28.200
– Professional Partner: N/A
Predicted Score: 28

Predicted Rank: 1st
Comments: Being given a dance that he did on Week 5 for “Latin Week” can be a good or not so good thing depending on how you look at it. It’s good because this is a dance that Donald did in the first half of the season, it’s not so good because Donald received a 27 in the first go around and there leaves really little for improvement. But then let’s also look at how it compares with the past celebrities in his “group: On one hand the only other NFL player in his 30s to have done the Argentine Tango this late in the season was Season 12’s Hines Ward and he got a 30. But on the other hand there have been four NFL players in their 30s that have done the freestyle:
– Season 3’s Emmitt Smith: 29
– Season 6’s Jason Taylor: 27
– Season 7’s Warren Sapp: 28
– Season 12’s Hines Ward: 30
Of the above four NFL players, two have won the mirrorball trophy (Emmitt Smith and Hines Ward) while the other two were runners up in their respective seasons. I will go on a limb and say that it is very likely for Donald to make it to the Final Two, and I would personally prefer him to come out on top… but that’s because the numbers tell me so. πŸ™‚

So there you have it. My last post of attempting to predict the scores, and as we have both seen it has been a heck of a crapshoot… at least for this season. It has been wondered how this season would compare to previous seasons in terms of scoring… so that is going to be something I will dive into during the off-season, so stay tuned!