DWTS Season 14 – Dancing by the Numbers Wrap Up
Blah blah All-Star Season blah blah. 🙂 That’s months away yet and I don’t find myself interested in it. Yet. I’m sure that will change. Sooner or later. I’m still thinking about the season that ended a mere two weeks ago. Because that’s who I am. 🙂
So, in looking at the way the show turned out, I saw a few people discussing what William’s REAL voting block was like. Some had a tendency to say “Oh, Katherine must have been killing it” or “Maybe William didn’t have it all along and he was getting by on margins” – well, being the nerd that I am, I just have to go back and LOOK and see if there are any conclusions to be drawn.
The final scores ended up being very close, with only one point separating Donald and William from Katherine. In order to win, Donald or William needed 3,740 more votes per million votes cast to get by Katherine. Obviously, Donald got those votes because he ended up beating her. William, on the other hand, didn’t get those votes because he came in third place. Pretty simple, right?
That’s not to say that William WASN’T getting more votes than Katherine, because he could have been – he just couldn’t cover the spread. I’m inclined to believe that William was pretty solidly in third place (and no better) all along – because of the pimping or in spite of the pimping, take your pick. Why do I think this?? Well, 3,740 is chump change when it comes to votes, but he couldn’t get past Katherine. While Katherine was a beautiful dancers, she was quite over hyped in the latter weeks as well (by the judges) – but she and Mark together were also very likeable.
The previous week, Katherine, William and Donald all had to get past Maria by the following margins:
– Katherine needed just over 13k per million votes cast to get past Maria, AND;
– Donald needed 8,700 votes per million votes cast to get past Maria, AND;
– William needed 4,350 votes per million votes cast to get past Maria
They all did that and Maria went home – so it seems to me that she was fourth place all along. Those aren’t huge numbers. However, there IS an argument to be made that Katherine was helped A LOT by her “back spasm” and the fact that people still think someone is safe with the high score. Sure, that could have helped Katherine…and maybe it did. It’s hard to say for sure. But it seems to me that if people got lax on voting for Maria because she had the high score, it would have been William in trouble and not Katherine. Because at the time it mattered the most, and with no sympathy vote in play, Willy couldn’t get past Katherine. For that reason, I think the winner, 2nd place and 3rd place were pretty solid.
I think that there are three reasons people vote for who they vote for: they vote for the hot guy/girl, they vote for the best dancer or they just vote for who the “like” best. I don’t include the pros separately because I think it falls under the header of “like the best”. Most of the time, the best dancer is in the finale along with a couple obvious choices – those that you get the sense that they are popular for one reason or another. That tells me that as the season goes along, the people who vote for the best dancer or most popular/likeable tend to be in a slight majority over the third group (hot guy/girl). I think in the last two or three weeks of the season, more people are added to the voting mix (American Idol’s announced number of voters reflect this and I would expect DWTS to follow the same trend on a smaller scale) – and I think they are more inclined to vote for the better dancer. Hence, Katherine beating out Maria and William. I LOVE Maria – frankly, she made Derek happy and he had a great time and she was very fun to watch…but Katherine was the better dancer. I don’t think that Katherine connected as well to the music or her partner…but that’s a personal preference. It could be why she got second and not first, though. Maria should be proud – Derek didn’t think she would make it past week 4 but she worked her butt off.
Anyway, that is all conjecture on my part and here’s a bit more. There is a segment of every audience that buys into HYPE. And I think that William benefited tremendously from the hype or promotion (pimping, if you will). You know that’s true – that’s why there are huge numbers of people working in advertising and PR – it works. If you market something or someone well, they will sell. I think without the hype, he doesn’t get the 4,350 votes needed to get past Maria in the semi-finals. I think Maria was a better and more entertaining dancer than William – again, my personal opinion – but you have to ask yourself how YOU vote. If you are influence by ANYTHING other than the pure dance ability (be honest now), then you have to admit that judges pimping will work to some extent on some people. I think that those people don’t read this website, necessarily – but I do think they are sitting at home on their couch listening and regurgitating what the judges say as if it were gospel – I’ve experienced people reiterating to me what the judges say. So, IMO, if William weren’t overly hyped all along, he probably couldn’t have covered the margin and would have been forth place. I think that’s the only bit in contention – William versus Maria. I think Katherine had a lock on second place and Donald a lock on the win. Partly because I called it in week 1. 😉
I also see a lot of “Roshon was robbed” and/or “Maria was robbed” – neither of which I agree with. Fourth place in a season like this one is fantastic. She was treated badly one week and managed to survive on votes. She was never going to win the season. Roshon? Also not robbed. The people determined his fate. In fact, he was the opposite of “robbed”. Who else was in the bottom two three times and survived two of them? Has that ever happened in the history of the show?? Not that we know of.
At the end of the day, the show is half judges score and half the voters; if the voters didn’t like you enough to let you survive to the end then that’s the way the cookie crumbles. I hope the judges and producers learned something from this season – tinkering and pimping only works if the audience agrees with you. You can manipulate someone to the finale (William) but you can’t make him win. You can continually put down someone (Donald) but the audience will still vote for the winner they want. You can load the dance floor with “family” (Roshon and Sherri, and to a lesser extent William), but you can’t make the audience love them enough to keep them around. How about next season we eliminate the stupid crap (dance off) and the ridiculous, obvious over-hyping (William) and just let the dancers dance. You judges get your score, we get ours. How about that?
Heidi thanks for posting this, It’s so true about Roshon and Marie. There were some times I really thought both were robbed and not scored right, but, in the end, they were in the right placements.
And I agree….pleaase rid of the dance duel. I hope they never do that again.
I think Maria & Sherri was robbed. Sherri never had a chance to prove herself. When she was eliminated, even her pro, Val, was shocked. She had every reason to prove she could do it.
Heidi I thank you for posting this as well. I just liked Maria and Donald from the beginning and my votes went that way until Maria was eliminated. I also never liked the over pimping of William. I do have to say I was surprised that he ended up third because you never know how people vote and I thought many might fall for it just because of the screaming fans when he appeared. I did think that in another season Maria may have won. Boy, that girl worked hard and I have to say I thought she was the most improved. She should be very proud of what she accomplished with all those injuries. Katherine came in already being a great dancer and maybe because I never saw the same chemistry in her dancing I never connected with her like I did with Maria and Donald. With Roshon I did see a good dancer, but did not think he had the fan base to get him the votes. While I did not care for the dance duel, it did allow Roshon to stay a bit longer. Would I want it again – no probably not.
Vogue, I am right there with you… That dance duel was just plain cruel.
Thanks for the numbers post. I personally feel that Donald was ahead in votes from very early on in the season and that his freestyle and the pimpage of the royal couple sent him way over the top…
I agree when you say “you can manipulate someone to the finale, but you can’t make them win”. But I think the issue is that TPTB only want to manipulate up to the finale… They want their preferred sets of eyeballs are *watching* the finale. Past that, they don’t give a rat’s patootie who actually wins. Maria would have, IMO, made for a more entertaining finale. But that’s just me. 🙂 As for the all-star season?? The more I hear, the more “meh” I become… 😉
I’d rather see brand new celebrities than the “All Star” show their planning to have.
You miss the point, Cheryl – Sherri wasn’t robbed if the people who vote didn’t care enough to vote for her. Lord knows she was overscored every week she was on.
Oh, I agree that Maria would have been much more entertaining in the finale than William – and I would imagine it was pretty close, based on William being third and needing next to nothing to get past her in week 4. Sometimes being the high score will work against you when there is a small margin. The fans of the person who has low score will be highly motivated, while others will be lax. Not talking about ardent fans, but the casual viewers. The ardent fans will probably be ardent voters regardless.
Yeah, Sally and malei02 – the more I hear about the all star season, the less I like the idea. I can’t imagine that they won’t take a good idea and totally fuck it up. 🙂
My thoughts are: If It Ain’t Broke Don’t Fix It motto comes to mind. DWTS was doing fine just as it was. I am not a fan of this All-Stars charade.
With Roshon wasn’t it he survived 3 out of 4 times in the bottom 2 (with Sherri, Gladys, Jaleel, then double elimination).
Since, most Disney kids don’t seem to fair as well, I wish ABC Family or Disney would try something similar (maybe include other dance styles too) to DWTS on their network with younger contestants.
Not sure what I think about the dance duel overall but this season I was grateful because it kept Roshon on longer.
Given what happened in the Finals: Would it be safe to think that William was in the Bottom Two with Maria for the Semi Finals Heidi? They didn’t reveal a bottom two and had Donald sweat it out really.
This post made me think about why I choose the people I do to vote for. One reason that factors in for me is the couple. If there is good chemistry, whether or not the dancing is as good, that couple probably gets my vote. The pros are good at trying to project good chemistry, but sometimes it’s so obvious that it just isn’t there. Like Chelsie and Jake, Mark and Bristol, and Tony and Kate. (Tony deserves to be knighted for that turn) And I don’t mean just sexual sparks, but are they having fun, do they like each other, etc? As a pro, you can like someone a lot, but if they aren’t going to work hard, that’s that.
Yeah, Tony, I think he was bottom two with Maria – I highly doubt it was Donald.