Las Vegas Odds Makers Make First DWTS Season 15 All Star Predictions
Wow, would you believe the odds makers in Las Vegas are already predicting who will the new Dancing With The Stars All Star Season? For now, Las Vegas Sports Betting has Helio Castroneves taking it all with Apolo Ohno, Emmitt Smith, and Shawn Johnson neck and neck behind him. I was shocked to see how low they placed Gilles Marini. In my opinion, he should be placed further at the top if not winning it. I would have placed Apolo higher than Helio. I don’t think Pamela Anderson is going to do this badly either. 😯
Helio Castroneves 9/2
Apolo Anton Ono 5/1
Emmitt Smith 6/1
Shawn Johnson 6/1
Drew Lachey 7/1
Joey Fatone 7/1
Kelly Monaco 15/2
Gilles Marini 10/1
Kirstie Alley 10/1
Melissa Rycroft 12/1
Bristol Palin 15/1
Kyle Massey/Sabrina Bryan/Carson Kressley 20/1
Pamela Anderson 25/1
Let’s get Miss Heidi and Court’s takes on this and be sure you let us know your thoughts too in the comment section.
Courtney: I honestly feel a little weird commenting on odds this early, since we don’t even know the partnerships yet – but alas, I guess I should get used to this season not feeling “normal” 😛 I agree with Vogue that I think they’re somewhat overestimating Helio – I think the two Olympians, Apolo & Shawn, are probably going to be the ones to beat (perhaps with a slight edge given to Shawn), with Gilles & Joey following close behind…then MAYBE Helio & Drew. I wish I disagreed with their odds for Pam, but I think she may really struggle with votes – she did on her own season, and I daresay she’s up against bigger fan favorites this time around. And like I’ve said before to folks around here that are freaking out about Bristol – I really think they’re giving Bristol too much credit. She’s not the “innocent girl next door” she tried to portray in season 11 anymore, she’s up against more popular contestants, and better dancers. If she thinks she’s just going to coast all the way to the finale like she did the first time around – she’s got another thing coming. As for the final all-star we’re voting on…hmmmm. I’m fairly certain Kyle is pretty much a lost cause, since he seems to be campaigning the LEAST out of the 3; I think Sabrina may be relying a bit too heavily on other people to promote her; and I think Carson is making the best effort to get himself cast. If we get Carson – I doubt he’ll be a stellar dancer, but I could see him outlasting at least Pam and Melissa, perhaps Bristol. If we get Sabrina – I still think she’ll be gone before the midpoint of the season. But I’m reluctant to say anything “in stone” until we hear the last all-star and the pairings announced – because I think that could change the odds quite a bit.
Heidi: Yeah, I think the pairings are going to be the deciding factor this time around. I think that a large part of both Helio’s and Apolo’s success was their partnership with Julianne – everyone thought both couples were so charming and “cute”. I think both men were good dancers, but they gained a lot of ground due to shippers and others who just liked them as couples. Julianne ain’t around this time, so this is where the real test begins. Both men were pretty heavily criticized in their early rounds and then once they kept going on, the judges started getting on board. Will they this time?? As for Gilles – are they under rating him?? I don’t know. I thought he was a pretty good dancer, but it will be interesting to see how he looks compared to the other guys. Yeah, his partnership with Cheryl was important, but will Cheryl be the Cheryl that William had or the Cheryl that originally had Gilles or Drew?? Speaking of Drew, I think Drew, Joey and Kelly are going to find out that this ain’t the same competition that it was when they were originally on it. The bar was raised when Julianne, Derek and Mark came on board and all the other pros stepped up. So I think they might have their work cut out for them. Another thing that will be key will be those people who get their original pro – the competition will either be weighted in their favor (Mark and Cheryl, in particular) or they could find even better pairs from the new couples. A lot of these people were great in their own seasons – but how will they look against people who were also very good in their seasons? We won’t know until we see them. Sabrina? She’s toast, so I agree there. She may be a good dancer, but there are a lot of good dancers – all with much larger fanbases. And if she doesn’t have Mark, as I suspect? Well, all those little shippers may find their impact minimized. If she snags Derek (doubtful) she might stand a chance because I think he will soften the hard lines. ANYWAY, that is my long winded way of saying that it’s much too soon to do the odds – the pairings will be the first critical hurdle, then it will be how well these pairs look opposite each other.
On derek’s website (derekhough.com) underneath the congratulations to team usa gymnasts he writes that we should follow shawn johnson on twitter. Could this mean that he is paired up with shawn?
from his website: “P.S. I want to encourage you all to show your support for Olympic gold medalist Shawn Johnson who is now the special correspondent covering the games for TODAY.com after announcing her retirement not too long ago. Be sure to follow Shawn on Twitter as she tweets her coverage using the hashtag #OlympicsTODAY. Also, follow her as she competes in the upcoming all-star season of Dancing with the Stars! Dancing with the Stars: All-Stars premieres on Monday, September 24 at 8/7c on ABC. “
from cheryl’s twitter:
Love u Gilles! “@accesshollywood: .@GillesMarini Stumps To Be Partnered With @CherylBurke For: All-Stars – WATCH: http://t.co/I2rk48AV”
Interesting, Liz…
I first guess he’s partnered to Bristol. Shawn-Mark. Kelly-Tristan.
Too early to call and i don’t see Helio take it all. The smile is fantastic, but without Julianne…………
Once again, and I know it’s wasted breath, but I hope alot of people are complaining to tptb. It will give an automatic huge edge to anyone renewing an old partnership. If they can’t all have original partners, no-one should. If Giles, gets Cheryl or Mark gets Shawn..they will especially have a HUGE advantage(esp.Shawn). I don’t know that Maks getting Kirstie will matter much either way. But she has been a good dancer and done alot of it all her life, so if the weight loss enables her to do even more, despite the fact she is 60…she could be a factor, too.
What I think wil be really hard is to predict who the top 6, or so, will be just because it will be hard to figure who the majority of the normal audience will gravitate to.Like normally I would think Drew would be pretty close to the top because he was a really good dancer, lo-key but likable. But with Giles, Shawn, Helio, Apolo and maybe Kirstie had people really pulling for them cause they just liked them or their story, I think Drew could be gone quite early along with Pam, Melissa.Carson. And Emmitt, who wasn’t that good a dancer and Bristol could be around longer than many who are much better because they could have crazy fan support. If Cheryl ends up with a former partner I’d rather it be Emmitt, at least she’s have to work a little. And for Mark to get Shawn is just wrong….after all the campaigning for Sabrina, he oughta dance with her.
I just think, if Shawn’s injury(her knee) isn’t a factor, she will have an edge and if Giles dancing is as good or better it will be the 2 of them, again.
I was shocked to see Helio at the top but not surprised to see Shawn, Apolo, and Emmitt. Given their huge built in fan base, any of those 3 will be tough to beat. I the first week of competition. Can’t wait to see the pairings. All the speculation is giving me a headache!
Sorry … my new puppy ran across my laptop and my comments got submitted before I finished. lol
What I was trying to say … I expect Gilles’s odds will greatly improve after the first week of competition.
Well, I guess the pairing of the couples’ announcement will not be televised either or just that Mark and Joey won’t be there…..
…..””The Hard Rock Hotel and Casino In Punta Cana, Dominican Republic will host Summertime With the Stars August 10-17. Mark Ballas will join the talented lineup of artists from August 13-16. Others slated to appear include Joey Fatone, Alfonso Riberio, Matt Giraurd, Tanya Chisholm, Blake Lewis, Tim Urban, and Karen Rodriguez.””
If Emmitt is not as good as you say, I really hope Karina gets him. I know she wants a football player since she never had one before. And “Blonde Karina” aka Peta just won with a football player (still can’t believe they beat William and Katherine since both had better scores and bigger fan bases), but she did have her “boyfriend”(cough, cough) ask all his fans to vote for them so anything can happen!
@ #9 .. actually, Donald and William tied for second behind Katherine on the scores finale night. Donald had Packer Nation behind him, so I doubt Maks fanbase had much to do with it.
My vote for the star to beat right now is Apolo. He didn’t have any dance experience and it was Julianne’s first year at teaching but once he got into the groove he did pretty good and he is still a fan favorite.
Here is how I break down the 6 guys.
Best Dancer- Gilles
Most Popular- Apolo
Biggest Fanbase- Emmitt
That’s why I put those 3 as the top 3 guys right now. Gilles is a flawless dancer and performer who many think should have won last time. Apolo has a huge fan base and is very likeable. And it’s pretty apparent that NFL players have massive, seemingly unstoppable fan bases. Dallas Cowboy fanbase is even larger than Steelers(Hines) and Packers (Donald).
I think these 3 guys have the most going for them right now. Partnerships and how they perform obviously will also play a huge role.
I think Helio is next. He is very likeable and IMO an underrated dancer. I thought he danced better than Apolo with Julianne but because he “screwed” Mel B he has been unfairly maligned.
To me right now Drew and Joey could be the most vulnerable for similar reasons.
1.) Washed up pop stars really have very soft fan bases compared to athletes and even actors. And 98 Degrees and NSYNC have been pretty much off the radar for a decade now. Drew and Joey could be competing for the same type of voter which could hurt them with so many other stars have more die hard fan bases.
2.) Drew and Joey are solid dancers and personalities but I’m not sure they are great. And they were both on very early seasons so how will they adapt to the show now with the stakes raised so high in the training level?
Quite frankly Joey was the only guy I had an instant “blah” reaction to when I saw which guys were picked. I guess thats my gut instinct as to why he maybe vulnerable. I personally loved Drew on his season. He is very straight forward and honest and determined. But I question the fan base right now as he has been really out of the spotlight outside of DWTS 6 years ago. Joey’s career isn’t exactly on fire right now either.
So right now I have them- 1. Apolo 2. Gilles 3. Emmitt 4. Helio 5. Drew 6. Joey
WIlliam & Katherine had bigger fan bases??????? Have you watched past seasons with NFL players? Hines’ votes pushed him past Kirstie….wasn’t Kym’s fans. Maks has way more than her apparently. Chelsea Kane had waaaaay better scores than Kirstie, but not anywhere near the fan base.
DDriver not only had Packer Nation, but Hines started following him after they had dinner one night and Hines’ fans voted for him. Karina and Gavin were rooting for him, as was Val and Maks. So many of those pros’ fans probably voted for him. Donald also connected to a lot of people. He seemed like a nice guy, family man, loved the show, and worked hard. IMHO, I actually think that if KS hadn’t asked Gavin to do the show, maybe DD would have been “her football player” since she was reigning champ at the time…who knows? Remember, there were a lot of people who didn’t want Willy to win for various reasons and many who thought Katherine had previous dance experience so had an edge and those people voted for Donald instead.
Sorry…I was responding to #9 🙂
Liz, I wouldn’t mind a Derek/Shawn connection, wouldn’t mind that at all. He deserves to go out in a blaze of glory and being put with Shawn just might do it.
I lol at these odds! They don’t even have partners yet!
#13 Thanks for the info. I had know idea Hines, as well as Karina and Gavin were promoting DD and Peta. Doesn’t matter at this point How they won, but IMHO they were still not as charismatic as William and Cheryl or Katherine and Mark.
Also, their freestyle was Very Good Can’t Deny That, BUT it was Not Original!!Cheryl did a country and Western theme freestyle with Drew and Kym used Steeler colors for the costumes, so Peta thought to use Packer colors. But in all honesty, Peta isn’t the first pro to steel someone else’s ideas. I’ve seen Maks use things from other pros, and I Love Maks.
And I’m sorry, but from day one I never heard a studio audience cheer for ANY STAR like they did William! Again, JMHO, DD is a nice guy and a good dancer, but William is all that and SMOKIN HOT (AND yes, I LOVE a man with an accent if it’s not obvious from my other remarks LOL) I honestly think that TPTB wanted the viewers to think it was between William and Katherine (which I truly believed) and then they have DD come out of the shadows and win. The HUGE upset victory! I did make for an interesting finale and I have the funniest feeling they can set us up again for All Stars.
After thinking it over, I think these odds are very clost in regards to the bottom 3 they have listed. after that its anyone’s game. i think they are overestimating apollo and shawn (as good as they are and they are awesome) and underestimating giles and joey.
Karen, you REALLY should spend some time reading this website before you come in here spouting myths that were debunked long ago. Maks is not even CLOSE to responsible for Peta and Donald’s win – that’s one of the most ridiculous things I’ve read in a while.
You OBVIOUSLY have no clue how this show works – Donald very clearly had more fans because he WON over someone who had a higher score and someone who had a tied score with him. That’s how the show works.
Jesus.
Donald Driver was NOT a huge upset win unless you aren’t paying attention and are clueless about how this show works. I called Donald as the winner in week 1.
I’m with jimmbboe #16 – these odds are good for a laugh, nothing more.
Helio the favorite? He’s charming and fun-loving, but for me his dancing was adequate, nothing more. He wouldn’t have won without Julianne.
I agree with so many of you – too much depends on who they are partnered with. I wouldn’t make a prediction without knowing that. Also, as much as the guys are pretty much all very good dancers, I think several of them will be sharing a fan base and because of that I see at least 2-3 of the gents leaving during the first half of the season – even tho they may be the best dancers.
I agree with those who think Apolo and Helio may have won because of Julianne. Her charisma, talent and beauty gave them both a boost, same as her brother has done with his partners. I’m really curious what they can accomplish with a different pro, but I’m still betting they can place high, as I think Shawn will, now that she has a little maturity under her belt. And, this may sound nuts, but I also have my bets on Pamela; she’s got charisma and sex appeal and that can go a long way. I would love to see Derek go out with a bang and 4th MBT, so I really hope he gets the right partner to do that with.
I think Helio, with his outgoing personality, will be able to connect more easily with a new partner than Apolo. Apolo seems more introverted. If he doesn’t feel comfortable, I think it will show in his performance. However, if TPTB choose well, I see Apolo as a serious contender.
I agree Pamela has charisma and sex appeal, but that’s often a liability when the bulk of your audience is female. I’m always amazed at how threatened a lot of women are by a sexy woman.
[…] the odds makers in Las Vegas have to say about it. Below is a run down of the Las Vegas Odds from a previous posting when we first found out who would be dancing. After that is the NEW Las Vegas Odds from Sports […]