Dancing with the Stars Season 15 Stats Class: Week 1’s Elimination – Pamela Anderson

The first eliminated couple of the season: Pamela Anderson and Tristan MacManus

But really was this a surprise? Taking a look at some of the past data and Back in June, we asked you the reader to choose your favorite celebrities across the seasons and I had recently posted the results of the popularity polls of celebrities taken from your favorites. On this list it did not appear that Pamela was in the Top 20 of the female celebrities… so already just from those summer polls alone there were signs that Pamela probably wouldn’t have the popularity vote by her side.

She was given the lowest score of the night on Monday… and even my elimination predictions have her not just towards the bottom of the list… but in last place as well. The Week 1 Score Predictions had her scored second the last ranking just above Kelly Monaco and Valentin Chmerkovskiy (who scored far higher on Monday night).

So yeah, she didn’t really have a lot going for her here no matter how you look at it.

So enough with what happened during Week 1… let’s look back with her time prior to Season 15. How did she fare and did she even stand a chance? Well hard to say. So what I did was go back in time and looked at her actual scores during her time on Season 10 and compared it with how her score predictions would have looked prior to Season 10. Then for the hell of it I also added the scores predicted for Season 15 using the same dances from Season 10… and let’s say the results were fascinating…

First the table:

Looking at the numbers alone she was all over the spectrum. There were some dances she scored higher than… while others she scores below… and still others right on par. But if we were to take the average score from the predicted scores of Season 10 vs the actual scores…
Season 10 Average Prediction: 21.708
Season 10 Average Actual: 22.286

Almost a whole half-point difference. Which sometimes doesn’t seem like a lot, but in the world of stats and mathematics is a hell of a whole lot.

So how does this look like on a graph?

Her actual scores from Season 10 appear to be all over the spectrum when compared to the Season 10 predicted scores… while when compared with the Season 15 predictions are a little more in line…


Now I wouldn’t go so far as to say whether she was over or under scores in any capacity mainly because I have to rewatch the episodes to know that… but I am kind of curious to see how the other celebrities stack up in hindsight when comparing their actual scores with the various predictions.