Dancing with the Stars All-Stars: Vegas Odds Going Into Week 4
And of course the week Vogue is out of town, we have actually have the biggest odds shakeup so far this season 😛 According to Bovada, Emmitt has finally been bumped out of the top spot by Shawn, with Apolo still holding down the #2 slot. Emmitt falls to 3rd, while at the bottom of the board, Sabrina falls hard, while Bristol makes a 3-fold jump. Crazy shuffling odds, Batman!!!
Odds going into Week 4:
Shawn Johnson – 7/4
Apolo Anton Ohno – 9/4
Emmitt Smith – 7/2
Gilles Marini – 13/2
Kelly Monaco – 12/1
Melissa Rycroft – 15/1
Bristol Palin – 25/1
Sabrina Bryan – 33/1
Kirstie Alley – 50/1
Last week’s odds going into week 3, to compare:
Emmitt Smith – 2/1
Apolo Anton Ohno – 3/1
Gilles Marini – 5/1
Shawn Johnson – 5/1
Helio Castroneves – 9/1
Sabrina Bryan – 10/1
Kelly Monaco – 22/1
Kirstie Alley – 22/1
Melissa Rycroft – 25/1
Drew Lachey – 30/1
Bristol Palin – 75/1
For the first time this season, I think they’ve actually got it JUST about right – I do think Shawn & Apolo are finale material, while the 3rd spot has become a bit of a wild card for me. I could see Gilles, Melissa, or even Kelly swooping in to challenge the two Olympians in the finale, at this point. I’m not so sold on Sabrina anymore, as she quite obviously wasn’t getting the votes and seems to be getting hindered by Louis’ choreography; and I am beginning to think Emmitt isn’t really in it to win it…maybe it was the donkey that made me question if he was champion material. 😛 As for Kirstie & Bristol – who the hell knows. I’m inclined to think Kirstie is annihilating Bristol when it comes to votes, but stranger things have happened. Heidi, care to weigh in?
Heidi: Are we using the same odds makers every week? Or do they all come up with the same odds every week?? I just ask, because that seems like it could account for minor differences in the odds from week to week. Either way, I have to agree with Courtney in that they have it just about right this time. I think odds are favorable that Apolo and Shawn are there at the finale. The third spot, however…I DON’T think it’s going to be either Bristol or Kirstie. Believe it or not, I still have a bit of faith that if both are still there in 3 weeks the judges will put the hammer down. I just can’t believe they would seriously want the two of them to make a mockery of an “All Star” season, Bristol in particular. I know that ratings rule…but I honestly believe that even including Bristol in an all star cast was a mistake that may come back to haunt them. It’s just not credible. So, at what point does the credibility/integrity (if it ever existed) of the show out weigh the obsessive desire for ratings? I’m hoping week 6 or 7. 🙂 The quest for controversy driven ratings is a double edged sword – at some point you make a mockery.
Heidi Still: Now that I’ve mentioned that word that’s been driving me crazy in the comments lately, DO NOT start talking about how the ratings are down because of Bristol and how adversely DWTS is being impacted. That’s no more true than the ratings going UP due to her in her original season. ALL OF TELEVISION is down. All of it. When you hear about DWTS taking a 20% dip in the ratings, it’s not catastrophic – all shows have dipped by 20 to 30% from last season except for (apparently) the Voice and football, both of which are holding steady. DWTS is still beating the Voice in total viewers and The Voice is still beating DWTS in the key demo. Nothing has changed there. What you hear on entertainment news shows is talking heads who aren’t smart enough to make distinctions. 🙂
Court: WORD. 😀 “The ratings are sooooo low!!!” is a DWTS urban legend that I’m growing very tired of debunking, along with the myth of VFTW being solely responsible for Bristol sticking around (they wish), and whether “in jeopardy” and “in the bottom 2” mean the same thing (NO). But anyway…here’s a screen cap to cleanse your palate. Happy Thursday, fwiends 😛
“Damn right I brought a donkey for my paso doble! His name is JaGilles…after my two favorite jackasses to ever do DWTS.”
Drew left the competition, now I want Gilles to live the competition. It would be fun to see Cheryl’s former partners not do well without her. I don’t care how far Emmitt goes after that.
you naughty girls with the photo and caption, lmao
Agree with the odds this time too. I really believe that Shawn and Apolo will be 1 and 2, spot number 3 will go to Kelly, not only her dancing is good but her relationship with Val will earn her some votes (they are so doing it). They are my three favorites.
The lady in the blue to the left of Emmitt has the perfect eyeroll expression, “Really, a donkey? That’s not gonna help your dancing, Emmitt.”
JaGilles? Help me out, my brains on low right now, who’s the Ja?
Jaleel
@Dyann: Jaleel White (Steve Urkel)
while shawn apolo and kelly would be my ultimate fantasy final 3, i believe emmitt and or kirstie are going to sneak in in place of apolo/kelly.
Isn’t it amazing that at the beginning of the season we thought the men would rule and now we have 6 women and only 3 men left. My favs are Apolo, Shawn and Kelly.
Lmao, ok thanks, I drew a blank on that one 🙂
Seems like Apolo, Shawn and Kelly are the top 3 of a lot people. They are bringing great dancing but also great fun, they are not desperate to win but they want to be on top. I really hope they are the top 3 this season.
I do think Apolo and probably Shawn will be in the finale. But I do fear that Gilles may creep his creepy self into the top 3.
I am surprised that I like Kelly and Val as much as I do, I find myself liking Val much more than Maks this season, of whom I find a one-trick pony and out of new and fresh ideas. Seriously, Kirstie did some of the same tricks in this latest Cha cha that she did in her previous one. Yawn!
I’m glad that Melissa is moving up in the odds, but I still worry what her actual fanbase is. My personal favorite top three would be Melissa, Kelly and Apolo, but I know there is a .1% of that actually happening. Like most others, I’m pretty sure Shawn and Apolo will make the final, but I’m not sure who the 3rd spot will go to.
Not really, Rebecca. We also commented that a couple of the men were likely “surprise” eliminations, including Helio. We’re only going into week 4. We could still end up with an all male finale.
I do think some of the women will start leaving the show now. Sadly, I think Melissa may go before Bristol.
Yep, Heidi, I do agree it could very well end up being an all male finale. I think the strongest 3 male celeb fanbases are still on the show.
I do think it’s funny how the Vegas odds makers clearly respond to whoever has a great performance each week. Even though Kirstie’s at the bottom, I think if she did awesome next week and topped the board (which she won’t), but if she did I think they’d pop her up near the top the next week. Looking at their record from week to week, they pretty clearly aren’t super well educated on the show.
However, having Shawn at the top and Apolo right behind her, I completely agree with. I think their reasons for listing them that way are probably different than the criteria a lot of us would use, but it just so happens that those mesh this week and I think the top two are right. Before the season began I (along with many of you) called Shawn/Apolo to win it. So that is spot on I think.
Where I’ve changed my mind, though, is that I thought Gilles had a good chance of the third finale spot. At this point, with the way he has conducted himself (mostly on twitter in the beginning, but now also on the live show) for the first time I don’t see him in the finals. I’m not sure who it will be, but I can’t see him making it unless he turns his personality around 100% from here on out. He seems to think his mistakes are on the dance floor; I think his mistakes are in his behavior.
Great discussion, ladies, with interesting insights from both.
PH, re: the quest for controversy-driven ratings being a double-edged sword for the show. I love the way you raised this issue; I think about it all the time, along with most other longtime fans, I expect. I surely hope we don’t have to wait till week 6 or 7 till the “credibility/integrity” side of the argument kicks in.
I think TPTB are treading a very thin line – best in the longtime interests of the show (and fairness to the celebs, pros, and voters-viewers) to err on the side of credibility.
I think the majority of viewers resent being manipulated by producers and naturally gravitate toward fairness, whatever that means, in the judging and presentation of the dancers.
I think Shawn and Apolo are definitely running 1 and 2.
I do hope Kirstie and Bristol are the next 2 to go with the finishing order of the remaining 5 basically up for grabs at this point in the competition.
At the beginning, I was pretty sure Gilles would be the 3rd one to make the finale, but now, I’m not so sure. It could go to Emmitt or Kelly with Melissa and Sabrina having an outside chance. I really think it’s going to come down to who has to dance one of their weaker dances sooner rather than later. A strong contender just might get knocked out with a weak performance.
Even if Gilles go to finale I don’t see him winning at all. And Sabrina, I don’t see her making to the finale, I give her more 2 or 3 weeks on the show. I think the top 6 will probably be Shawn, Apolo, Kelly, Emmit, Kirtie and Gilles
I definitely agree with the top 2, not so sure about the rest. Emmit, Gille and Kelly are the perfectly reasonable next group, but this isn’t a reasonable season.
I definitely think Kirstie and Bristol will both outlast Melissa and Sabrina. At least one (possibley both) will probably outlast one or more of the Emmit Gilles Kelly group.
UNLESS the judges finally get some balls (or TPTB’s OK)to start scoring accurately to offset the voters. There is a huge gap in dancing ability between these two and the rest, but the scores don’t reflect that enough. The judges’ scores only reflect a marginal difference. They need to take a page from the DWTS Australia judges.
I watched it for the first time last season and one judge gave someone a 1. The girl got a total of 8 when all 3 judges scores were combined. And her dancing deserved at least the 3 and 4 she got, despite being a very sweet girl. I want to see some of that on this show.
Awesome caption, lol.
I also agree with the top two, Shawn & Apolo and the 3rd is tough I think it will come down to who pushes the envelope week after week with outstanding performances.
Please Bristol needs to go home soon for everyone’s sake.
Heidi…loved this comment “What you hear on entertainment news shows is talking heads who aren’t smart enough to make distinctions. ” Sort of reminds me of political talking heads too….lol!!!!
I did notice that the Bollywood photo of Gilles was exactly a move from the Derek, Henry Maria dance…but then maybe there aren’t that many Bollywood moves…wonder how much help they are getting from Henry because I remember Derek saying he and Henry really collaborated on that dance…just saying…
Love the “WTF?” look on the woman’s face! 🙂
@ Lynne
it’s just a popular move, i remember seeing it in a couple of sytycd bollywoods also