Dancing with the Stars Season 15 – Week 4 Pre-Predictions
Ok… just to get this out of the way… predictions are shot for Week 4. Since there are only four dances that have been on the show before (Charleston, Mambo, Jitterbug and Bolero) while the rest have either been a group dance (Rock N Roll, Disco) or were featured in the Results show by other dance groups (Bollywood, Contemporary, Hip Hop, Broadway)… there is no way I can truly predict scores… but I sure as hell will try. 🙂 Who could have predicted what the dance pool was going to include? I thought it would re-introduce dances that just didn’t have some exposure on the show as I posted last week.
So how will the scores stack up with the data that I have available?
What I did find to be interesting is that for those that were given the traditional dances that overlapped with my dance pool… I had actually suggested them to have:
Emmitt Smith: suggested either Bolero, West Coast Swing or Two Step
Shawn Johnson: suggested either the Mambo or Two Step
Before I move on… Warning: extra long, YouTube video link heavy post to follow. Also Lori added additional commentary wherever she is able in regards to Week 4’s dances / couples. Also there is a little bit of a conversation going on in the comments in the DWTS Season 15 Stats Class Week 4’s Challenge.
EMMITT SMITH AND CHERYL BURKE – BOLERO
this is the closest approximation to what a Bolero is suppose to look like… Natalie Coughlin and Alec Mazo from Season 9 to Leona Lewis’ Better in Time. However can you imagine Emmitt trying his hand on the Bolero? Well… as was pointed out to me Michael Irvin and Anna Demidova have done the Bolero as well and if anything perhaps Emmitt’s attempt would look more like them which was done to Randy Crawford’s “One Day I’ll Fly Away”
Lori: I expect Emmitt’s Bolero to be closer to Michael’s, than to Natalie’s, if only that both men played football (and yes, I did have to google that). I am expecting a higher score than both Natalie and Michael, however, because Emmitt is more of a “favored son” than the other two. And while she may not be one of my favorites, I will admit that Cheryl is the best choreographer of the 3.
SHAWN JOHNSON AND DEREK HOUGH – MAMBO
The Mambo is probably the most seen on the show at the moment… so I can’t really say which is the highest scoring Mambo… Season 4’s Apolo Anton Ohno and Julianne Hough danced the Mambo to Gloria Estefan’s Dr Beat. (I figured it would be easier to see what another Hough could do with an Olympian when it came to the Mambo. 🙂 ) Then again, the Mambo has been featured on the show in other forms. In the case of Shawn Johnson she has done the Mambo in her Team Dance to Beyonce’s Single Ladies.
Lori: I LOVE the mambo, and I always enjoyed watching them, and was disappointed that they removed it from the DWTS syllabus. I think Marianya got it right, there should be a lot of similarities between Apolo’s and Shawn’s Mambos, and I don’t think we should count Team Mambo from Season 8 as experience, because that was just bad…. Derek will nail the choreography, as always. A big difference between Julianne’s choreography for Apolo and Derek’s choreography for Shawn, is experience… Julianne was 18 years old and in her first season, and Derek’s 27 years old and has roughly 10 seasons of experience.
In regards to the above two dances: Courtney commented in a previous post:
I’d say the two that have the most to worry about in terms of “rules” are Shawn & Emmitt – they’re they only two with dances that have actual ballroom syllabi. However, I’m not sure any of the 3 judges are particularly familiar with bolero, so Emmitt could get a bit of a reprieve there. So really, I think Shawn & Derek are the only ones that really have rules to contend with – but that could be more of a boon than a burden in this case. If there’s set rules, it will give you a lot more direction in choreographing the dance.
KIRSTIE ALLEY AND MAKSIM CHMERKOVSKIY – CHARLESTON
Being given the Charleston may have been a bit of a reprieve (considering what the other option was). Up to this point the Charleston has only been danced three times, with the highest score given to Melissa Joan Hart and Mark Ballas as danced to Bob Wilson & his Varsity Rhythm Boys’ Charleston.
Lori: Kirstie and Maks will definitely be able to nail the performance aspect of the Charleston, but not sure about the technique….
MELISSA RYCROFT AND TONY DOVOLANI – JITTERBUG
With Tony Dovolani being saddled to create a Jitterbug routine for Melissa, I thought it would be fun to see what Derek Hough did with the Jitterbug for Brooke Burke in Season 7 to Elvis Presley’s Don’t Be Cruel.
In the meantime… the closest approximation for Melissa and Tony is that they have done a Lindy Hop together before in Melissa’s season to Cherry Poppin Daddies’ Brown Derby Jump… So the Jitterbug shouldn’t be too far out of their comfort zone.
Lori: I agree.
Again many thanks to Courtney for pointing out the following between the Charleston / Jitterbug / Jive / Quickstep:
There’s actually not a Charleston syllabus – so much of the Charleston has just gotten incorporated into the jive & quickstep syllabi, so there’s not much left to comprise the “rules” for Charleston. Let me see if I can dig up my jive/Charleston/jitterbug/Lindy post…
SABRINA BRYAN AND LOUIS VAN AMSTEL – DISCO
Oddly enough, as mentioned before quite a few of the dances listed have been used as a group dance in previous seasons. One of these being the Disco Group Dance from Season 3 done by the Top 5 of that season as they danced to Michael Jackson’s “Don’t Stop Til You Get Enough”
Though, the Hustle could be interpreted as Disco in general… below is a video of Warren Sapp and Kym Johnson with their Hustle from Season 7 to Lipps Inc’ Funky Town. Unfortunately there is no telling how Sabrina / Louis’ Disco routine would turn out.
BRISTOL PALIN AND MARK BALLAS – ROCK AND ROLL
The Rock and Roll Group Dance was done on Season 5 to Bobby Day’s version of “Rockin’ Robin”. And… as was pointed out, Bristol has already done the Rock and Roll dance in the form of a Marathon Dance in Season 11 to ZZ Top’s La Grange.
APOLO ANTON OHNO AND KARINA SMIRNOFF – HIP HOP
A version of Hip Hop (Old School that is) was done as a Group Dance in Season 7 by the Top 7 to Rob Base & DJ E-Z Rock’s It Takes Two (unfortunately this is the only video I was able to find that had the original music).
Granted Apolo’s Freestyle with Julianne in Season 4 to Young MC’s Bust a Move was a fusion of hip hop, breakdancing and other freestyling dances.
Even though Apolo has done “hip hop” in some capacity before:
Hip Hop is very different from Breakdancing which is what Apolo actually does… so it’ll be interesting to see how that works out.
[…] the Apolo / Julianne freestyle… it is a fusion of hip hop, breakdancing and other stuff. But Apolo knows some breakdancing while Julianne knows some aspects of hip hop… whileas I am not entirely certain if Karina knows any hip hop.
And looking at past ballroom dancers on So You Think You Can Dance… hip hop is the dance style that they tend to have the most trouble with (well that and contemporary)… unless they have had prior experience in some capacity.
KELLY MONACO AND VALENTIN CHMERKOVSKIY – CONTEMPORARY
Of course the having non-traditional ballroom dances as Freestyles isn’t really a “new thing”, but the most obvious was Erin Andrews and Maksim Chmerkovskiy’s try at Contemporary (ok really lyrical… with the aid of Mandy Moore) on Season 10 to the song “Alone” by Heart
GILLES MARINI AND PETA MURGATROYD – BOLLYWOOD
And who can forget Derek’s fusion of Samba and Bollywood with Maria Menounos in Season 14 done to the song “Mama Do the Hump” by Rizzle Kicks
The thing about Bollywood (as I mentioned in a comment in the previous post):
Bollywood doesn’t have “rules” in the same sense as a lot of the ballroom dances, but hand gestures are incredibly particular (not like the judges would catch that).
Though, Heidi and I had an interesting exchange about some of the non-ballroom styles:
Marianya: Bollywood doesn’t have “rules” in the same sense as a lot of the ballroom dances, but hand gestures are incredibly particular (not like the judges would catch that).
Heidi: Yeah, the Bollywood is going to be tough. I wonder if the judges will actuall :::gasp::: do their homework on these dance styles.
Courtney pointed out the following in her comment:
I have a feeling those with less solid boundaries (Kelly & Val, Gilles & Peta, [Bristol] & Mark) may end up with routines that seem a bit aimless and unsure of themselves.
ELIMINATED COUPLE: HELIO CASTRONEVES AND CHELSIE HIGHTOWER – BROADWAY
Finally there was the Broadway Group Dance done in Season 13 to a fusion of Big Spender from Sweet Charity and Money Money from Cabaret.
So as you can see, from the dances that will appear in Week 4 of the All-Star Season, all of the dances have appeared on the show in some capacity or another. So in all honesty when Tom Bergeron says that some dances have “never” been on the show before… I have to wonder what TPTB mean exactly by that?
Lori: I do think they just DIDN’T think! I mean, if they really haven’t been on the show before, we wouldn’t have been able to find examples FROM DWTS to show what we might see, would we? As we’ve heard from Heidi, tricks and lifts are being allowed this week, and I really hesitate with that decision, because usually when they do this, we see that most dances are pretty much nothing other than lifts and tricks, and high scores and praise from the judging, with little actual REAL dance content! I do look forward to the pros who do actually choreograph appropriate lifts and tricks to ENHANCE the content, and not replace it.
Looking at the above let’s have a final tally of who truly has an advantage for the upcoming Week 4?
Regardless… I am going to have to redo most of my spreadsheet to adapt to this upcoming week alone! So not fair. Anyway, enough of my harping, I am not going to allow one week to stop me from attempting to make predictions… Or maybe I should just say “screw it” and take a week off… what do you think? 😉
Definately make predictions. I already made mine that night after I saw what dances each couple got. Odds are they are wrong though since this season is so unpredictable for scoring.
Sorry meant to say “odds are mine are wrong since the season is so unpredictable for scoring”.
Marianya, I’m sure it’s frustrating to have to redo your spreadsheet, but I really appreciate this post! This week could be a real game-changer for the season for some couples.
I can’t see Emmitt doing well with Bolero AT ALL, but will the judges’ scores reflect that?
Gilles and Peta might be able to do a great job, especially with outside help. However, Gilles has got to calm down a bit. If he is constantly stressed about it, there’s no way he will be able to learn a new style of dance in 4 days. Remember everyone, he’s “not a dancer.” 🙂
Val will continue to make Kelly look awesome.
As mentioned above, if the judges judge mainly on performance, Kirstie will be okay, but I can’t see her keeping up with the technique of the Charleston if it is as fast-moving as the Jive.
Sabrina and Louis could really make a come-back from last week with a great number.
I would think that Paula Abdul would judge the hardest on Karina and Apolo with hip-hop, but who knows?
I think Shawn and Derek and Melissa and Tony will be fine with their dances, but will just need to keep the performance factor high, something they should have no problem doing.
I would have loved to see Helio and Chelsie do a Broadway number!
Looking forward to Monday night as always and thanks again for the post!
Len and Bruno ARE familiar with Bolero, but the ice dance version!!! The Brits should understand what I mean.
These are my predictions: (the scores respectively are paula, carrie ann, bruno, and len)
Kirstie and Maks: 8.5,8, 8, 7.5)
sabrina and Louis: 8.5, 8,8,8)
shawn and derek: 9,9,9,8.5
giles and peta: 9,8,8,8
kelly and val: 9,9,9,9
apollo and karina: 9,9,9,9
bristol and mark: 8,7,7,6.5
melissa and tony: 9, 9.5,9.5,9 (let me explain the 9.5s, if its anything close to their lindyhop it should be fantastic)
emmitt and cheryl: 9,9,9,8
I just have one question: The lifts. If I remember correctly, Contemporary, Jitterbug/Rock & Roll, and I would say to some extent, Hip Hop have lifts in them? So what will our Lift Police say about them when seen on Monday night?
Derek said that everybody will be able to do lift, even mambo
I love mambos and jitterbugs 😀
I definately think the odds are wrong they haven’t been since week 1. I look for some of the top scorers from week to have a tough week I actually think Sabrina will be close to the bottom. I look for Kirstie to Have a better week she keeps improving every week maybe she will 8.5s this next week who knows. I think Apolo will be the top next week with and Shawn and Melissa tied.
@Catherine L – are you referring to Torvill and Dean’s masterpiece?
This week will be anything but predictable but I have a feeling the scores will be all over the place….not going to even attempt to guess what they might be.
What a tough job putting this together this week, thank you so much for doing it!
Wow, this post is truly impressive.So much work and thought went in to it. Thank you!! I learn so much from you genius Pure girls.
Bruno and Len are used to judging Charleston as they often have that dance on the UK version.
I’ve seen Charleston done on the UK version, it’s pretty fun and a little fast, but I didn’t think it was jive fast.
I don’t like Emmitt, but I think he’ll probably do fine with the Bolero. It’s similiar to the Rumba, and that was actually one of his better dances the first time around. One of the few I enjoyed.
I wish Val & Kelly had given him Contemporary instead. I can’t see Emmitt pulling that off at all.
Thanks for all the work to make such an informative post about the different dances. I appreciate all the links to examples.
Thanks, Marianya, you really had a challenge on your hands with this week!
I’ve yet to see a male celeb do a Rumba I felt 100% comfortable watching. I watch most male-celeb Rumbas with my eyes squinched half shut. So I’m not expecting Emmitt’s Bolero to be a great success. If he manages it, more power to him; I just hope the stooges don’t prop him up if he fails.
Please, oh please, don’t give them Ravel’s Bolero. For me that would tarnish the memory of Torvill and Dean’s iconic ice dance.
Cidra, me too, I don’t think I ever 100% enjoyed a male celeb rumba, the only one that can really close was Evan and Anna.